A Macroeconomics presentation I did in MBA with friends and fellow students - Alzahra, Sumitha and Milaena at the University of San Francisco, predicting the economic situation of Poland and deciding whether a USA chalk company should export to Finland in 2015 or not.

1. Blakleyovich Enterprises
International
By,
Sumitha
Alzahra
Milena
Malvika

2. Poland
Predicted for 2015
GDP : 3 %
Interest Rates : 4.85 %
Foreign Exchange : 3.1
Unemployment :

3. Economic Situation
 2013 saw a low and a high in its GDP
 Fall in Private Consumption
 Recession in the Euro Zone reduced
its exports in half

4. Why Investing
in Poland
seems like a
safe bet ?
Steady
increase in
GDP %
High growth
& low
inflation
Low Labor
Costs
Successfully
combated
recessions
High Market
Flexibility
Poland
Pension
Reform
Reversal
Strong
portfolio of
banking
assets
Zloty is
steadily
gaining
strength
Insulated
from
Ukraine war
• USA accounted only for
$ 3.2 bn in 2011
• Machinery and Transport
equipment, Intermediate
manufactured goods, Chemicals,
minerals, Fuels, Lubricants

5. Economic Growth Foundation
- Narrow array of industry
and partners in imports
and exports.
- GDP growth was not stable
- Growth fueled by Monetary and Fiscal policies.
0
1
2
3
4
5
Category 1
% GDP growth
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

6. Government Re-Shuffling
Decreased
economic growth
Public support
for government
lessens
Firing and
replacement of 6
cabinet members
Prime Minister Donald Tusk

7. And the public says…
• European Parliamentary Elections in May
• Civic Platform Party + Polish Peasant’s
Party
VS.
Law and Justice Party
• What currency to use? Zloty vs. Euro

8. IS LM
In 2015, IS will shift right due to more C, I and G.
LM
Zloty is a flexible currency.
So, with higher GDP =
higher interest rates =
higher f/x =
lower exports =
lower NX.
IS curve shifts back a bit,
r lowers.
Net Result: r will rise a bit.
To export to Poland we want high f/x, high imports, good GDP, stability, low risk in 2015.
IS
No major move by the Central
Bank. No major LM activity.
4.44
4.85
1.5 3
r
Y

9. Looking at GDP, YES.
GDP fell to 0.5 but going up now
Consumer Confidence and Business Confidence high as per Economist Intelligence Unit.
Europarliament giving EURO 105.8 billion to Poland to spend from 2014 to 2020
Going forward, to sell Poland
some chalk or not?

10. Looking at Imports, YES.
Slow steady rise. No danger of going down.

11. 10 Yr interest rate falling but staying between 4 and 6. f/x falling but staying between 3 and 3.5
Looking at interest rates and f/x, YES.
Our chalk is getting expensive for the Poles but just marginally.
There will be no surprises in 2015.

12. Looking at the Monetary Policy, YES.
“I don’t see any reason for nervous moves. We have to monitor the situation, but I don’t
think we will have to act because our economy is extremely well-balanced.”