Mobile Industry Technology Forecast Study Summary

  • 4,290 views
Uploaded on

This is the summary report of my mobile industry technology forecast report, for the full study please refer to "Mobile Industry Technology Forecast" presentation.In this study I have tried to conduct …

This is the summary report of my mobile industry technology forecast report, for the full study please refer to "Mobile Industry Technology Forecast" presentation.In this study I have tried to conduct a technology forecast for the mobile industry. In order to do this we have developed and followed a ten steps methodology as follows;
First we started by defining the industry and determining the exact sub industry definition. Second we studied the history of mobile phones with special focus on the important milestones to determine the important inflection technology events which took the technology to the second level, or helped in diffusing the technology, or created a new trend or resulted in a technology disruption. Third we gone through an industry analysis phases in which we studied the market growth rate, market share of different players, identifying leaders, followers. Followed by studying the market dynamics and main trends from both producers and consumers. Producers revenue pyramid, current and future strategies have been included. Fourth we composed the industry PEST analysis followed by industry overall analysis using porter five forces model. Fifth, a study for the major technological trends have been conducted, resulted in identifying main important industry trends. For each of the identified industry trend, we have identified the main technological challenges based on the consumer pull demand and the technology implication of each. Sixth, we constructed our technology future wheel based on all the previously mentioned types of analysis, resulted in identifying the main technology subcomponents. Seventh, we gone through a structural analysis followed by cross impact analysis for those subcomponents. Eights, a relevance tree for all those subcomponents including different technological alternative for each have been constructed. Followed by an analysis based on experts opinion about existing diffusion rate for each of those technology alternatives. Ninth, a road map for the forecasted technologies have been compiled, followed a wild card listing for alternative technologies which may exist in the near or far future, even technologies which in research and we believe that it is extremely wild have been included. Tenth, a conclusion of our forecasted short and terms technologies landscape have been composed and presented.

More in: Technology , Business
  • Full Name Full Name Comment goes here.
    Are you sure you want to
    Your message goes here
    Be the first to comment
No Downloads

Views

Total Views
4,290
On Slideshare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
1

Actions

Shares
Downloads
0
Comments
0
Likes
4

Embeds 0

No embeds

Report content

Flagged as inappropriate Flag as inappropriate
Flag as inappropriate

Select your reason for flagging this presentation as inappropriate.

Cancel
    No notes for slide

Transcript

  • 1. MOBILE INDUSTRY TECHNOLOGY FORECASTING NU TECHNOLOGY FORECASTING COURSE PROJECT SUMMARY FALL 2011 AL-MOTAZ BELLAH AL-AGAMAWI1 motaz.agamawi@nileu.edu.eg Nile University, 6th of October City, Cairo, EgyptKeywords: Technology Forecasting; Technology Assessment; Technology Foreseeing; MobileSmart Phones Technology Forecasting; Future of Mobile Phones; Mobile Phones Roadmap;Mobile Phones Technology Progress; Mobile Phones Technology Components; Mobile IndustryAnalysis; Mobile Industry Trends and Challenges Followed MethodologyWhile developing this forecast report the following steps have been followed in sequence. Firstwe started by defining the industry and determining the exact sub industry definition. Second westudied the history of mobile phones with special focus on the important milestones to determinethe important inflection technology events which took the technology to the second level, orhelped in diffusing the technology, or created a new trend or resulted in a technology disruption.Third we gone through an industry analysis phases in which we studied the market growth rate,market share of different players, identifying leaders, followers. Followed by studying themarket dynamics and main trends from both producers and consumers. Producers revenuepyramid, current and future strategies have been included. Fourth we composed the industryPEST analysis followed by industry overall analysis using porter five forces model. Fifth, a studyfor the major technological trends have been conducted, resulted in identifying main importantindustry trends. For each of the identified industry trend, we have identified the maintechnological challenges based on the consumer pull demand and the technology implication ofeach. Sixth, we constructed our technology future wheel based on all the previously mentionedtypes of analysis, resulted in identifying the main technology subcomponents. Seventh, we gonethrough a structural analysis followed by cross impact analysis for those subcomponents. Eights,a relevance tree for all those subcomponents including different technological alternative foreach have been constructed. Followed by an analysis based on experts opinion about existingdiffusion rate for each of those technology alternatives. Ninth, a road map for the forecastedtechnologies have been compiled, followed a wild card listing for alternative technologies whichmay exist in the near or far future, even technologies which in research and we believe that it isextremely wild have been included. Tenth, a conclusion of our forecasted short and termstechnologies landscape have been composed and presented.1 Al-Motaz Bellah Al-Agamawi is the Vice President for Business Development in ISIS, and a M.Sc. Candidate inManagement of Technology in Nile University, Cairo, Egypt. 1
  • 2. Forecast Scope and DefinitionThis forecast is compiled assuming the perspective of an international technology forecastingconsulting. Providing forecast consultation services for an international mobile handsetmanufacturer through this study. This paper is just the summary of the study.Mobile industry definition from the perspective of this summary is as follows; ConsumerElectronics Industry encompasses such industries as Computers, Consumer Electronics andTelecommunications. It is divided into two main segments within the B2C (Business toConsumer) space which are: @Home and On the Go electronics. The On-the-Go sector may bebroken into three segments: Mobile–Communication, Entertainment and Productivity. Overall,this analysis focuses primarily on Mobile Communication Devices within the ConsumerElectronics market. Several segments within Mobile Devices are hardware and software:Communication which include Mobile Phone, Entertainment which includes Portable GamingSystems and Portable Music/ Video Players, and Productivity which includes Mobile ComputerLaptop, Notebook, Tablet, Ultra-Portable, PDA and Navigation Systems(GPS). Our study scopeis focusing on the mobile phones (handsets) segment which fails under the communicationdevices sector.It worth mentioning that the mobile handset segment as of today includes two major subsegment, the traditional phone and the smart phone. This study is mainly focusing on the smartphone although we will mention some facts about the traditional phone market for the purpose ofcompiling this study. Also we will mention is summary our forecast for the traditional phone. Mobile Phone HistoryThe first commercialized mobile handset as we know as of today was the Motorola DynaTack in1985. In 1989 the Motorola StarTack have been introduced as the first flipping device. Also in1989 Nokia was the first to introduce the SMS supported device in the markets. 1994 Nokia wasthe first to introduce games software applications to the mobile handset industry. In 1996, Nokiawas the first to introduce smart phone concept through the communicator device. In 1997,Research in Motion introduced the black berry service and then crack berry addiction have begansince then. In 1999, Nokia introduced the first web enabled mobile. In 2000, Nokia introducedthe first antenna free mobile. In 2001, Sharp introduced the first mobile including an built-incamera. In 2001, the 3G mobile connectivity have been introduced, and it was an inflection pointin the mobile industry through the high speed connectivity the technology supports. In 2007,Apple have introduced iPhone which was a real disruptive technology in the mobile industry. In2008, Apple have introduced the Apple Application Store and this was the first introduction forthe mobile complete ecosystem model. In 2010 Google decided to enter the race with it Nexusdevice and then followed by the introduction of Google Android in 2011. Since the entrance ofApple and then followed by Google the mobile operating system and the ecosystem is playing animportant role in the mobile industry. Market Dynamics and Industry AnalysisMobile industry has four main factors driving change including On the Go Lifestyles,Miniaturization, Network Effect and Convergence/Integration. The on the go lifestyle can be 2
  • 3. summarize; Consumers crave convenience. Not so long ago our phones had cords, they werebulky, heavy and sucked power like a Hoover, now they got liberated by not sticking to oneplace. Miniaturization, The creation of ever-smaller scales for mechanical, optical, and electronicproducts and devices. Processing Power went up as chip size shrank. Now miniaturization istaking a new turn, it helped increase mobility and power. Network Effect, as more and morephones are linked together –the value from such a device rapidly increases. Phones initially werepretty much worthless. Then as more and more people bought phones, the value of owning aphone expanded exponentially. Convergence/Integration, Combination of voice(telephony)anddata(computing/multimedia) into a single, multi-functional device. Design and the integration ofvoice, multi-media, and computing is a huge driver of increased mobility.For the PEST analysis;  Political includes, Environmental Regulations. Restrictions on the tariffs and phones. Government regulations. Internet Regulation. Base Stations & Human Health. Political Stability. Members of the general public as well as interest groups such as ‘Power watch’ and ‘Friends of the Earth Scotland’ have shown concerns about impact of radiations from base stations, transmitters and mobile phones on human health  Economically, Taxations. Economic Benefits. Competition is a must. Rapid growth. Mobile consumers in East Africa are taxed at some of the highest levels world-wide. In addition to VAT-Value added Tax-, an excise duty, or luxury tax, is levied on mobile services.  Social includes, Lifestyle changes. Social mobility. Shift towards the Information Society. Increasing Need for Communications. Security threats. Environmental concerns vary. A necessity not a luxury. Parents are getting mobile phones for their teens because they want to communicate in case of an emergency and the wireless carriers have made it easy to add users to their existing plans. And carriers are becoming successful in getting parents to expand their plans to include their teens.  Technological includes, Rates of obsoleteness. New discoveries. Speed of technology transferee. VoIP introduction. Technological Innovations. Some U.S. cities are now proposing free citywide Wi-Fi services, which could mean billions in lost revenue for the Mobile phone industry.Porter Five forces model can be summarized as;  Threat of Industry Rivalry o Rivalry is High and intense ( Apple vs. Nokia, Nokia vs Samsung vs. HTC vs. others and Microsoft vs. Google vs. OSX vs. Symbian) o Digital Convergence is tearing down the walls between industries. o Open architecture is forcing many companies to duke it out with each other. o Margins are being squeezed for most players as products are commoditized and substitutes are introduced.  Threat of Supplier Power o Suppliers hold only low to moderate power 3
  • 4. o Smaller suppliers, with the exception of those with truly unique components, hold little power over manufacturers.  Threat of buyer Power o High Buyer Power. o Price conscious consumers will continue to put downward pressure on prices. o Telecom carriers set strict terms from handset makers. o Manufacturers sell to consumers Predominantly through retailers/carriers. o Issue of returns is magnified in the direct model.  Threat of New Entrance o The threat of new entrants is low in the traditional sense.  Massive fixed costs of production create economies of scale not easily matched by challengers. o Real danger exists in that the technology landscape is ever changing.  Computer and Telecommunication companies are invading each others territories  Plus new technologies are always on the horizon. o Barriers to entry are  significant for startups in that capital requirements are large.  However, a very large number of companies spread out a cross various industries are ready to jump into markets offering even a hint of profitability.  Threat of Substitute o The greatest threat is convergence.  As more functions are crammed into devices, universal devices may drive stand-alone products from the market.  You can think of Skype and iPad with tweeking can change the landscape. o Using open source software, many innovators are exploring and even hacking existing devices, and creating an entirely new ecosystem of technology. o Potential disruptions is expected from Tablets as the iPad.  Threat of Complimentors o Hardware advances create pull demand for matching software, and vice versa. o Advances in communications technologies also fuel demand for upgraded/replacement devices. o As OS’s increase their capabilities ,application software’s potential is thereby increased o Microsoft and Nokia Strategic Alliance  Nokia with include Windows 7 for its Smart Phones  Microsoft will License Nokia Maps, Media Technology and Other as a part of its Windows 7 o Nokia new Release Integrated with Apple iTunesThe industry analysis attractiveness analysis is:Attractive factors; 4
  • 5.  Mobile phone usage is growing very fast and landline usage is declining significantly.  Internet through mobile phones increases the use models significantly.  The cell phone is one technology where people of different ages can use without any hesitation.  The cell phone technology has infiltrated its way through the teenage population very fast.  Instant messenger, Email and Social Network usage through mobile phones are increasing.  Mobile Phones have even affects business like Alarms, Calendars and more.Not Attractive factors;  Competition is very high and is increasing tremendously.  Prices are in continues decrease and profits are a major issue. Buyers power are increasing.  Threat of disruptive technologies exists, specially from tablets. 5
  • 6. Tradition Phones Figure 1 Traditional Phone Technology PerformanceThe traditional phone is in the maturity and commoditization phase. The above figure shows thecurrent technology performance which is fair higher than the current market performancedemand. Traditional phones are seen from the target segment (base of the pyramid) perspectiveas an only voice communication device. Based on that, a low end disruption is expected througha low end and less featured devices within the range of 5$ to 10$. Also enabled phones includingsome features of connectivity is expected through highly competitive price. This is the oppositewhen it comes to smart phones, a high end disruption is expected and this will be the focus of therest of the study. Technology Trends and ChallengesExperiencing Eco-System, which became one of the most important buyers buying decisionfactors. Ecosystem as of today includes software applications variety, music, movies, videos,books, social media applications and the internet trends in general including search, ecommerceand others. The ecosystem has many technological challenges which can summarized as,Ecosystem expansion is a consumer pull requirement which in return raises the issues of storagedilemma is it local or cloud. Also bandwidth is an important factor for the required expansion.From the different vendors side as music, movies, books and application both monetizationbusiness model and IPR/copy right technologies and mechanism have become more and moreimportant concerns. 6
  • 7. Applications availability and diversification is a pull demand by consumers and a challenge formobile manufacturers. Applications are causing technology challenges which can be summarizedas; closed and proprietary operating systems are strategic decision which must be taken bymobile manufacturers. Such decision is also important from independent software vendors anddevelopers because it affect the size of their target segment compared to development efforts.Processing power and storage capacity of the devices is crucial parameters for applications.Bandwidth speed and cost is another aspect affecting the whole ecosystem stakeholders and has adirect implication on both monetization and business model.Interface design and usability plays an important role in differentiation strategy between differentmobile manufacturers. Advanced fully featured devices with easy friendly interface is achallenge. Complete ecosystem demand with high security is not a luxury. High security withoutlimitation for complete external systems communication, utilization of different communicationtechnologies (WiFi, Bluetooth, infrared), internet (upload and download), social application andother is not an easy task. Privacy is an important factors but with the full support of technologiesas location based is also a hard task.Display and monitoring is a challenge. Customers are asking for small and less weight devicessupporting large display area without the increase of device size. High resolution displays havebecome more and more important. High resolution within a small device with large display areaand a long life battery is a real challenge.Processing speed, keyboard and battery life is a real technology challenge for mobilemanufacturers. Consumers needs a high processing smart phone device with a low powerconsumption and heat. Keyboard has become an important issue, convenient large keyboard in asmall device. Battery life is the main factor supporting the on the go life style which has becomevital for most of the smart phone users community.Based on the above trend and challenges analysis which in return is based on the understandingof the mobile industry history, PEST analysis and industry analysis using porter five forcesmodel, we have come out with the below illustrated future wheel. The below figure showsmobile industry smart phones segment future wheel, with the main 8 technology subcomponentsincluding connectivity, processing, display, screen, battery, storage, operating system- OS andecosystem. 7
  • 8. Figure 22 Smart Phone Technology Forecast Future Wheel Relevance Tree, Structural and Cross Impact Analysis Figure 3 Smart Phone Technology Forecast Relevance Tree2 Color encoding for the sub technologies used in this paper analysis in all diagrams. Blue sky for storage, dark blue for connectivity, light greenfor keyboard, brown for processor, light red for display, light blue for battery, orange for ecosystem & light green for OS. 8
  • 9. As a result of the future wheel analysis we have extracted the technology relevance tree for sixcomponents of the eight components we have mentioned as the core in the relevance tree. Figurethree express the alternative technologies for each of the storage, display, keyboard, battery,processing and connectivity technologies. Based on our constructed relevance tree analysis forthe mobile technology subcomponent technologies we have tried to indicate the differentsubcomponents listed technologies rate of diffusion. So we have developed the legend appears infigure three as follows; green colored boxes for technologies currently diffused, yellow coloredboxes for technologies expected to start diffusing or already started and red colored boxes forfuture technologies which e forecast that it will be diffused in the future.Then we started our structural analysis and cross impact analysis. As shown in figure four, theoutput of the structural analysis was a high dependency between the eight sub technologies. Theoperating system was indicated as the most dependant components although it is the mostadvanced one and with the minimum technological barriers or challenges. The technology showstopper is the battery technology which is affecting the advancement of all other technologycomponents. Long life batteries with a minimum required charging and with a small size withoutany customer behavior or convenience compromise is the real challenge facing the mobilityindustry in large and mobile phone industry is specific. The battery technology performanceanalysis compared to the handset mobile phone industry demand show a huge gap between theavailable technology performance and the required market demand. Followed by the battery, wehave two main components having challenges including display and keyboard technologies. Ifthose three subcomponents challenges solved a new S-Curve in the mobility industry will beenseen. Figure 4 Smart Phone Technology Forecast Structural Analysis 9
  • 10. Technology Forecast RoadmapFigure five represents the future technology roadmap we anticipate for the mobile phonestechnologies. The roadmap diagram in composed of the five most important mainsubcomponents distributed over short terms (0 to 1 year), mid term (1 to 3 years) and long term (3 to 5 years). The short term, mid term and long term are designed based on ouranticipated/expected diffusion rate over time for the technologies, also we have related theinnovation novelty to each interval. The short time will include incremental innovation fordifferent subcomponent, the mid terms will include a radical innovation while the long term willinclude a radical innovation. Figure 5 Smart Phone Technology Forecast Roadmap 10
  • 11. Technology Forecast Wild CardWe forecasted based on our analysis wild card technologies for three of the main subcomponenttechnologies including battery, display and storage. In addition to a wild card uponNanotechnology entrance within the mobile industry play ground. The wild card figure 6diagram is composed of; the four technologies distributed over three categorization includedmoderate wild card (technologies with high probability of existence), intermediate wild card(technologies with a lower probability of existent) and finally extreme wild card (technologieswhich is a very hard to be existent within the near or even far future based on the technological,social, economical or political existing barriers or constrains). Figure 6 Smart Phone Technology Forecast Wild Card 11
  • 12. Forecasted Future Mobile PhoneThe figure seven shows our forecasted technologies subcomponents of the mobile phone. Belowdiagram is composed of the eight main mobile phone sub technologies distributed over short (1to 2 years) and long (3 to 5 years) term intervals. Figure 7 Smart Phone Technology Forecast of Future Mobile 12
  • 13. AcknowledgmentIt worth mentioning that the following parts her mentioned have been presented based on amutual team work cooperation between the author of this research paper and the followingnames as a part of their BSAD 603- Corporate Strategy, course project conducted in NileUniversity as part of the Msc in MOT studies. Names are: Rasha Tantawy, Basma Albana andMohamed Mokhtar. Parts are: Industry definition, industry timeline, market dynamics, PESTanalysis and some of the industry trends. DisclaimerAll material in this report is for informational and scholar research study purposes only . Anyand all ideas, opinions, and/ or forecasts, expressed or implied herein, should not be construed asa recommendation to invest, trade, and/or speculate in the markets. Be advised that study authorwill not be held responsible for any investment actions that you take as a result of anyinformation mentioned in this report. Appendixes Figure 8 Mobile Industry Analysis using Porter Five Forces Model i
  • 14. Table of FiguresThe below figures are the sole property right of the research paper author. All copy rights andintellectual rights are owned by the research paper author. 1. Figure 1 Traditional Phone Technology Performance 2. Figure 2 Smart Phone Technology Forecast Future Wheel 3. Figure 3 Smart Phone Technology Forecast Relevance Tree 4. Figure 4 Smart Phone Technology Forecast Structural Analysis 5. Figure 5 Smart Phone Technology Forecast Roadmap 6. Figure 6 Smart Phone Technology Forecast Wild Card 7. Figure 7 Smart Phone Technology Forecast of Future Mobile 8. Figure 8 Mobile Industry Analysis using Porter Five Forces Model Works Cited 1. Ahonen, T. (2011, 7 25). Microsoft Nokia Best Case Scenario: 8% Market Share in 2013. Retrieved 12 19, 2011, from brightsideofnews.com: http://www.brightsideofnews.com/news/2011/7/25/microsoft-nokia-best-case-scenario- 825-market-share-in-2013.aspx?pageid=2 2. MeeGo. (n.d.). MeeGo. Retrieved 12 18, 2011, from MeeGo.com: https://meego.com/ 3. Nokia, C. (n.d.). The Nokia Story. Retrieved 12 18, 2011, from www.nokia.com: http://www.nokia.com/global/about-nokia/company/about-us/story/the-nokia-story/ 4. NokiaConversations. (2011). Nokia Strategy 2011. Retrieved 12 20, 2011, from nokia.com: http://conversations.nokia.com/nokia-strategy-2011/ 5. SymbianFoundation. (n.d.). SymbianFoundation. Retrieved 12 20, 2011, from symbian.org: http://licensing.symbian.org/ 6. Taloussanomat. (2011, 12 2). Nokias market share tumbles at home, company loses more than half of its presence in a year. Retrieved 12 18, 2011, from phonearena: http://www.phonearena.com/news/Nokias-market-share-tumbles-at-home-company- loses-more-than-half-of-its-presence-in-a-year_id24284 7. wikipdiaSymbian. (n.d.). Symbian. Retrieved 12 20, 2011, from wikipedia: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Symbian_OS#History ii
  • 15. 8. wikipedaiMeeGo. (n.d.). MeeGo. Retrieved 12 18, 2011, from wikipedia: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MeeGo_(operating_system)9. wikipediaMobileOs. (n.d.). Mobile Operating System. Retrieved 12 16, 2011, from wikipedia: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mobile_operating_system10. wikipediaMobileOS. (n.d.). Mobile Operating System. Retrieved 12 19, 2011, from wikipedia: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mobile_operating_system11. wikipediaNokia. (n.d.). Nokia. Retrieved 12 18, 2011, from www.wikipedia.com: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nokia12. WikipediaSmartphones. (n.d.). Smartphones. Retrieved 12 19, 2011, from www.wikipedia.com: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smartphone#cite_note-17813. MichaelDavisand/orBrencomBusinessTechnologies,Inc.,Consumer(Mobile)ElectronicsIn dustry, 200814. Wilcox, J. (2011, 2 1). Nokia needs plastic surgery not a brain transplant. Retrieved 12 20, 2011, from betanews.co: http://betanews.com/2011/02/14/nokia-needs-plastic- surgery-not-a-brain-transplant/15. YahooFinance. (2011, 12 20). Retrieved 12 20, 2011, from finance.yahoo.com: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=NOK&t=5y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=apple16. Ziegler, C. (2011, 2 8). Nokia CEO Stephen Elop rallies troops in brutally honest burning platform memo? (update: its real!). Retrieved 12 20, 2011, from engadget.com: http://www.engadget.com/2011/02/08/nokia-ceo-stephen-elop-rallies-troops-in-brutally- honest-burnin/ List of Websites17. Atomic:http://www.wired.co.uk/news/archive/2010-01/04/silent-speech-and-atomic- batteries-the-future-of-mobile-phones18. Yelling,Dirt,Heartbeat,cola:http://www.pocketgamer.co.uk/r/Multiformat/Top+5+mobile +charts/feature.asp?c=3139019. E-Ink: http://hothardware.com/News/Liquavista/20. DisruptiveTechnologyinDisplay:http://www.google.com.eg/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=display% 20technology%20forecast&source=web&cd=8&ved=0CFgQFjAH&url=http%3A%2F% 2Fwww.intertechpira.com%2FCore%2FDownloadDoc.aspx%3FdocumentID%3D11002 &ei=c1QQT_ebKoWg- AbsmPDlAg&usg=AFQjCNGSsAR2P8AHg5h5RH0wAl8KYPxBew iii
  • 16. 21. Mobile Display Research: http://www.phonearena.com/news/Flexible-mobile-displays- Interview-from-the-research-lab-with-Michael-G.-Helander_id2443622. NextGenerationDisplay:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_generation_of_display_techno logy23. Future of Storage: http://www.wtec.org/loyola/hdmem/toc.htm24. FutureofStorage,http://www.mobiletrax.com/Newsletters/tabid/115/EntryId/80/Gigabytes -Terabytes-The-Future-of-Mobile-Storage.aspx25. StoragetechAlternatives:http://www.isuppli.com/Memory-and- Storage/News/Pages/Alternative-Technologies-Vie-for-Share-of-Fast-Growing-Mobile- DRAM-Market.aspx26. Screen:http://mobiledevdesign.com/tutorials/choose-right-mobile-display-tech-reduce- power-gap-081309/27. Battery:http://mobiledevdesign.com/tutorials/choose-right-mobile-display-tech-reduce- power-gap-081309/index1.html iv