0
HSCB Pathways Program
25August 2010
Jeffrey G. Morrison, Ph.D
morrisonj@tswg.gov
703.604.0339
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
HSCB & The Need for Frameworks
• HSCB Phase 1: Shotgun of projects. All about ...
CTTSO HSCB BAA 09-Q-4590
• Goal: Build and demonstrate end-to-end HSCB functional
capabilities:
– Enable an analyst to tra...
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Road to Pathways
BAA 09-Q-4590
Requirements
• 2531 – HSCB Modeling Decision Su...
HSCB
Pathways Program
Defining a Navigation Framework
for Socio-Cultural Topology
28 July 2010
6
MG Flynn, USA, J2 ISAF;
“Fixing Intel” - Jan 2010
“Our operators must find better ways to answer
fundamental questions a...
HSCB Environment:
Socio-Cultural (S-C) Topology questions are diverse
Data Driven Methods
Model Driven Methods
“What is th...
S-C Data Challenges
Diverse and Dynamic Data Variety of Models
Today’s Limits: Few extant methods and standards for joinin...
Pathways Objective Capability:
Socio-Cultural Navigation
Data Driven Methods
Hypothesis Driven
Methods
Models for
forward ...
Develop a new hybrid modeling engine
for navigating the Socio-Cultural Topology.
Pathways Technical Objective
• Address th...
Each map may have its own topology,
coordinate/attribute scheme.
Socio-Culture Topology:
(n-Dimensional State Space)
- Geo...
Modeling Conceptual Challenge
“How do we know we are getting the right answers - not just
getting the wrong answers faster...
Meta-Theory for S-C Analysis
• Object:
1. Manage the S-C Modeler / Analyst Dialog as a repeatable Process.
2. Demonstrate ...
A Meta-Model for the Analytic Process
TIME/EFFORT
Shoebox
Evidence
File
Search &
Filter
Read &
Extract
Schematize
Build
Ca...
Notional Meta-Theory Objectives
Tell us where you think we will end up*
• Tells us what model decomposition is appropriate...
Assemble:
Data, Causal &
Correlation
Relationships
Identify &
Assemble Hybrid
Models; Measure
Fit (for analysis
topics)
Ge...
Pathways Way-Ahead
Interactive Visualization tools
Brigade & Above
Strategic Influence for
Sudan, Congo &
Horn of Africa
M...
Pathways’ Key Milestones
Milestone 1 Milestone 3Milestone 2 Milestone 4
Establish
Static
System
Dynamic
Model,
Data
Select...
Pathways Program Overview
Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3 Phase 4 Transition
Establish Static
Framework &
Baseline Capability
Dyna...
20
Pathways: Evidence of Success
From: To:
Arbitrary technical approaches
guiding tool development
Combine Empirical and
T...
21
Combating Terrorism Technical Support Office, (CTTSO)
Human Social, Culture & Behavior Modeling Program (HSCB)
Question...
BACKUP
22
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Initial Insights, Concerns & Caveats
• Insights & Concerns:
– Pathways needs t...
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Initial Insights, Concerns & Caveats
• Insights & Concerns:
– Need to develop ...
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY25
Tell a “Story”
• BLUF: You need a story...
– You need to tell us what you ar...
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Notional Pathways Story Template
• Commander Smith needs to know X in order to...
DEVELOPMENT CONTEXT OPTIONS
Pathways Kick-Off Guidance
NEXUS Proposal
PRISM Proposal
27
28
Pathways Nexus Team Advanced Technology Laboratories
For Official Use Only
Preliminary
Recommendations
• SSTR – Somalia...
29
HSCB Analysis Users
Category User (Analyst) Organizations HSCB Roles
Strategic Human Factors
Analysis
Human Factors Ana...
30
HSCB Planning Users
Category User (Planner) Organizations HSCB Roles
Strategic and
Operational Influence
Planning
Strat...
31
Challenge 1 – COIN Operations in Afghanistan
• Three ISAF LOOs
– Governance
– Development
– Security
• Data: Availabili...
32
Challenge 2- Strategic Influence Planning in HOA
• Phase 0 (Shaping) Challenges
– Counter growing influence of China
– ...
PROJECT QUAD CHARTS
For Official Use Only
NEXUS Pathways
Integrated Socio-Cultural Model and Data
Exploitation for Multiple Missions & Granula...
35
SCHEDULE:
TECHNICAL APPROACH: Develop and Implement a
Computational Model-Based Analysis Capability:
• Modeling: Build ...
‹#›© 2010 Oculus Info Inc.
HSCB Modeling Visualization Framework
SCHEDULE:
OBJECTIVE
● Design, develop and implement “Aper...
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in...5
×

Pathways Summary Brief 25 Aug2010

524

Published on

Overview to the HSCB Pathways Program

Published in: Technology
0 Comments
0 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

No Downloads
Views
Total Views
524
On Slideshare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
1
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
7
Comments
0
Likes
0
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide
  • 5
  • 6
  • There are different types of S-C models in this domain – all of which will be necessary to addressing operational S-C needs. It is useful to note that the different kinds of S-C models lend themselves to answering different kinds of questions. “What Is” questions are often best addressed through data-driven models and methods. “What if” questions which involve predictive analyses often are addressed using theory or model driven methods. We posit that every S-C analysis will need to incorporate both approaches.

    Further, the context of these what if and what is analyses will change as the unit of interest changes from local people and groups to regional and national or even international analyses.
  • 8
  • 9
  • 10
  • 11
  • Might be useful to think of the Meta-Theory as a Business or Process model for S-C Analysis.
    Different processes might be appropriate for different S-C domains, e.g.
    How to do S-C modeling that marginalizes insurgents within a population
    How to do S-C modeling that facilitates stabilizations at the local level
    How to empower local governments during humanitarian crisis.
    How to detect external influences to economic & political stability.

    Performers:
    Pick a context you are enthusiastic about (or two)
    Need first cut by Aug QPR Meetings. Evaluate during Phase 2 (if not sooner).
    Nice if you talk to each other….. The expectations is that one of our system metrics is interoperability…
    Provide graphics as storyboards to support outreach. Video??
    Tell us when they will be implemented for evaluation.
    Provide alternate models considered & rationale.
    Gov’t may seek to apply S-C meta-theories as point of convergence among architectures.
    End of Phase 2 – Formal evaluations of Meta-Theories as implemented within architectures.


  • We believe that hybrid modeling for the S-C domain will need to be tied to a meta-model that is both meaningful and observable to the S-C theorists. It will instantiate a meta-theory for the creation of hybrid S-C models. It must be meaningful to the users of the hybrid-models, and as such, will have visualization components coupled to the meta-model within the Pathways visualization framework.

    The meta-model shown here is representative of the kind of model we may need. It was developed under the IARPA A-SpaceX program and describes the common elements of the analytic process.
    The analytic process is inherently structured, so this model seems to be very robust across a number of domains. This model is similar to those taught to analysts with the IC.
    There are two conceptual loops embedded within the model: Foraging (Looking for and organizing raw information); and Sense Making (Organizing information to address a problem or topic).
    a key feature is that the transition between stages are detectable as explicit behaviors.
    Adding structure is tantamount to adding information. The analyst ultimately composes a story to be shared with other people, and should be able to provide supporting evidence and explain the interpretation that led there.
    When elements at an upper stage do not make sense, or require new information to supplement, the analyst iterates back down through the stages.
    The process is highly iterative … but generally linear (one must go through all the steps to some degree for a given analysis to deliver a complete analysis and be able to explain it).

    How should we implement the meta-model? Need to address:
    How would you show a meta-model is correct?
    How will you address what is required for care and feeding of the models / meta-models? (How will you know if the meta-model you are using is appropriate and current?)
    Social theory should suggest the meta-model. We should look for ontologies that suggest the S-C variables and decompose them to show inter-dependencies – in effect reveal a meta-theory for the S-C theories & models we expect to deal with. We may want to think about levels of meta-models….
    What would you propose as a “mechanical” construct for addressing this issue?
    Linearize the state space so as to constrain hybrid models & complexities. See also optimal filtering… Use to limit the state space.
    We cannot be using the models in an open-loop modeling process….
    Might want to implement this function in terms of a “Model Predictive Controller”.
    Take in observations to verify that the topology model is appropriate, and it will be valid to use a meta model.
    Limit the hybrid modeling to 6-8 terms – these should be derived from the meta-model.
    Do we have constant measurements that can feed the controller? What are they?
    Note: The goal of a Model Predictive Controller is to facilitate goal constrained optimization. It should:
    Show possible actions
    Let the modeler Identify the best actions
    Suggest the Schedule for actions
    Tell us when the model is wrong; suggest how the model could be fixed. Tell us when we are operating outside identified constraints.
  • These are not definitive nor exhaustive. They are an initial attempt to characterize the performance characteristics we believe would demonstrate a suitable S-C meta-theory that would facilitate S-C Hybrid modeling.
  • This schematic provides a functional view of how Pathways contributes to the analysis process. It starts with an overall policy or treatment question, e.g., a commander is wanting to improve the economy in a province via business initiatives. The four steps are as follows:

    A large corpus of data is assembled and a variety of relationships are determined. These can be correlations, or in some cases may represent causal relationships. These relationships are the basis for the next step, finding models appropriate to the analysis questions.

    In this step, the analyst develops several topics or lines of inquiry to answer the overarching question. These could be, for this discussion, different business sectors in which the commander might recommend investments. Pathways would assemble hybrid models that allow projections of courses of action.

    The third step simulates several potential outcomes for different settings of decision variables.

    The last step compares these projections with respect to real world data. The actual evidence may not yield strong support for any of the projected paths. The Evidence Calculus would measure the degree of support, and would suggest where additional data would be most beneficial in improving this measure. In more complex scenarios, this assessment of evidence coupled with a larger set of projections can also help suggest what next questions should be addressed.

    Metrics for Pathways development include:
    How many data categories are incorporated in Step 1 and how many relationships are discerned
    How many analysis topics are generated (with some computer support) and how well-matched are the projections to real data (measured in scientifically valid experiments)
    How useful are the projections when measured by the evidence calculus. I.e., can the degree of support of the modeled projections, as measured by the evidence calculus, be improved upon with guided and feasible additional data collection.
  • 17
  • 18
  • 19
  • 20
  • 21
  • UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
  • UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
  • UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
  • 36
  • Transcript of "Pathways Summary Brief 25 Aug2010"

    1. 1. HSCB Pathways Program 25August 2010 Jeffrey G. Morrison, Ph.D morrisonj@tswg.gov 703.604.0339
    2. 2. FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY HSCB & The Need for Frameworks • HSCB Phase 1: Shotgun of projects. All about models… “Seeds in the field & Let’s see what grows” – Showcased at “Focus 2010” • HSCB Phase 2: Need to rationalize & create foci for rapid protyping into operational capabilities by FY12 – Define a common “framework” to ensure that models and data will come together as needed – Must be supportable & transitionable within DoD PORs – Address urgent operational needs in a repeatable manner – Form basis for “composable” modeling – Serve as catalyst for next generation S-C modeling – 6.3 / 6.4 Foci given anticipated HSCB Funding profile • CTTSO releases HSCB BAA 09-Q-4590 in May 2009 2
    3. 3. CTTSO HSCB BAA 09-Q-4590 • Goal: Build and demonstrate end-to-end HSCB functional capabilities: – Enable an analyst to translate an operational requirement to into a analytic strategy given available data & models – Execute best available models against best available data (individually & as hybrid / composites) to perform analyses – Visualize and share results, source data & models in a consistent manner amenable to supporting command / tactical decision-making related to understand stability and threats in regions and develop appropriate course of action • Semi-automatically manage data, condition and load it into appropriate models • Provide a basis for an analyst to find and link together models with data to develop a usable product that supports operational decision making (i.e. enable Hybrid-Modeling). FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY 3
    4. 4. FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Road to Pathways BAA 09-Q-4590 Requirements • 2531 – HSCB Modeling Decision Support Framework • 2532 – HSCB Dataset Repository and Management System • 2533 – HSCB Data Translation and Brokering System • 2534 – HSCB Modeling Visualization Framework 114 White Papers • Papers evenly distributed across 4 requirements • Source Selection Team recommends 13 papers for full proposals • 7 Full Proposals selected for FY10 Funding Pathways Program • Proposals for Req’ts 2531, 2532, 2533 combined into 2 single contracts, creating two teams: • Team 1: Lockheed Martin ATL / Lockheed Martin ISGS - “Nexus” • Team 2: BAE / BBN – “Prism” • Oculus selected as sole performer for 2534 due to funding – “Aperture” • Anticipatory Funding Authorized 26 April 2010 for the 3 Pathways contracts • Contract awards to be complete by Aug 2010 • Formal Kick-Off planned for 28 July 2010 4
    5. 5. HSCB Pathways Program Defining a Navigation Framework for Socio-Cultural Topology 28 July 2010
    6. 6. 6 MG Flynn, USA, J2 ISAF; “Fixing Intel” - Jan 2010 “Our operators must find better ways to answer fundamental questions about the environment in which we operate and the people we are trying to protect and persuade.”
    7. 7. HSCB Environment: Socio-Cultural (S-C) Topology questions are diverse Data Driven Methods Model Driven Methods “What is the village’s sentiment toward US? Has it changed since the 2 new schools were built?” Individuals and Small groups Regional Populations General Population, Government Institutions. “What is the local population’s attitude toward the insurgents? Is the population ready to marginalize the insurgency movement, especially in the south. “What are the key factors that drive popular support for the insurgency verses that for the government?” “What if local and district groups were empowered to define the rule of law and justice?” “What if acceptable stability for the country is not achieved in the next 6 months? “What if new economic initiatives are implemented in the southern provinces? What if Questions What is Questions 7
    8. 8. S-C Data Challenges Diverse and Dynamic Data Variety of Models Today’s Limits: Few extant methods and standards for joining information, analyses, and forecasts of this breadth, volume, and variability. Real World Data Structured tables Unstructured text from reports Blogs Imagery Chat rooms Geo-spatial data Dynamic, Theory-based Impact if Pathways is successful: Enhanced mission performance through easier data organization and access, and by making analyses, and forecasts easier to assemble and use Descriptive, Statistical Pathways Modeling Engine 8
    9. 9. Pathways Objective Capability: Socio-Cultural Navigation Data Driven Methods Hypothesis Driven Methods Models for forward base Models for humanitarian response Models for Division HQ to determining tipping points Socio-Cultural Topology Socio-Cultural Data What is the Status? What if this occurred; or action was taken? Modeling Challenges: 1. Develop Models for the Mapping S-C topology 2. Develop Models for Navigating the topology 3. Develop Models for forecasting plausible futures 9
    10. 10. Develop a new hybrid modeling engine for navigating the Socio-Cultural Topology. Pathways Technical Objective • Address the full spectrum of diverse, military, S-C needs as they emerge  Enable the tailored and rapid assembly of models with best available data  Enable the discovery and adaption of data to meet emergent operational needs.  Enable better understanding the operational S-C environments.  Support exploring fundamental “what if” and “what is” questions.  Provide a common user interface to enable access to hybrid models & data - with interactive visualizations that support S-C situation awareness and commanders’ option assessment. 10
    11. 11. Each map may have its own topology, coordinate/attribute scheme. Socio-Culture Topology: (n-Dimensional State Space) - Geospatial & Temporal - Entities, e.g. - People (individuals) - Groups - Institutions -Events -Economics & Security -Resources (& movement) -Attitudes, Values & Influences, and trends x0 S0 Path1 Path2 State Data y0 Data not subject to influence Data that can be influenced CollectibleDerived State Data Socio-Culture Topology & Requirements 2. Model characterization to aid discovery and integration into different applications, i.e., use State Data to generate S-C maps (typically data-driven models in this step) 3. Build Architecture for joining heterogeneous collections of models; with quick addition of new models, to create COA models 4. Discovery of actionable factors within the models that influence any given outputs 5. Visualization of threads that link data, models, and analysis to increase model/decision transparency 1. Enable data organization via meta-tagging Key Technology Requirements: 11
    12. 12. Modeling Conceptual Challenge “How do we know we are getting the right answers - not just getting the wrong answers faster?” • Better question: How do we make sure we are getting useful results from hybrid models? 1. Develop Process Theories for how Hybrid Models will be used. • Different models may be applicable to different analysts at different echelons & with different problems. 2. Expose model & data at the appropriate levels to be meaningful to S-C Theorists & Analysts “Essentially, all models are wrong – but some are useful.”, (George E. P. Box) 12
    13. 13. Meta-Theory for S-C Analysis • Object: 1. Manage the S-C Modeler / Analyst Dialog as a repeatable Process. 2. Demonstrate that we can get better answers through Hybrid Modeling. • Challenge: Start with needs based on what an analyst does today: Define a process theory that will be meaningful to S-C Hybrid Modeling – Show what can & needs to be done – Provide a System Diagram & narrative addressing Process • Map out and expose an S-C Topology • Develop Courses of Action given the S-C Topology – Identify Strengths & Weaknesses • Describe your plan to address weaknesses • Define Metrics for assessment – Propose program assessment protocols & metrics 13
    14. 14. A Meta-Model for the Analytic Process TIME/EFFORT Shoebox Evidence File Search & Filter Read & Extract Schematize Build Case Tell Story Search for Information Search for Relations Search for Evidence Search for Support Reevaluate STRUCTURE Schemas Hypotheses Presentation External Data Sources Sense Making Loop Foraging Loop Courtesy of PARC (2007) 14
    15. 15. Notional Meta-Theory Objectives Tell us where you think we will end up* • Tells us what model decomposition is appropriate & meaningful to end users. • Tells us about data – What sort of data is needed & help maps what data is available – Tells the form(s) of data should be to answer need • Suggests an “evidence calculus”; – What we need to know from the models – What we do / don’t know – Necessary assumptions – Hypotheses that need to be explored – ID schemas to tell the story – ID the Inputs/Outputs of the model to address the operational questions • *Subject to change without notice 15
    16. 16. Assemble: Data, Causal & Correlation Relationships Identify & Assemble Hybrid Models; Measure Fit (for analysis topics) Generate Projections, i.e., Courses of Action Assess evidence with respect to the projections. Deduce and generate: -Additional data to improve fit, or -Next question & supporting data Situational: Economics Food Medical Media Saturation Stability Public Works Perceptual, I.e., How Public supports: OPFOR Blue Force Local Govt. Other Authorities Evidence Calculus “If we have these observations , what weight of evidence to we accord to each projected path?” Policy/Treatment Question S0 Path1 Path2 S1 Path1 Path2 S2 Path1 Path2 Analysis Topic 1 Analysis Topic 2 Analysis Topic 3
    17. 17. Pathways Way-Ahead Interactive Visualization tools Brigade & Above Strategic Influence for Sudan, Congo & Horn of Africa Model- and Data-Driven Applications New Generation Modeling System Technology Base for Model and Information System Development 1. Select Exemplars that Span Diverse Applications 2. Identify Hybrid Models that should Address the Exemplars 3. Develop New Modeling Integration Framework joining Data- and Model-driven uses Battalion & Below Stability Operations for Provincial Reconstruction Team in Afghanistan Tools and Techniques for Non-obvious relationships 4. Integration of point solutions when & where appropriate 17 SA/OA
    18. 18. Pathways’ Key Milestones Milestone 1 Milestone 3Milestone 2 Milestone 4 Establish Static System Dynamic Model, Data Selection Aids to Automate, Guide Analysis Testing, Transition Technology Integration Experiments (TIE) TIE #1 TIE #2 TIE #3 18
    19. 19. Pathways Program Overview Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3 Phase 4 Transition Establish Static Framework & Baseline Capability Dynamic Model & Data Selection Demonstrate Data Discovery & Model Selection for Operational Decision Support Mission Specific Operational & Transition Demos Deploy & Sustainment Focus: • Integrate models & data into framework • Define & Implement S-C Meta-Model • Define operational decision support requirements for users Focus: • Integrate models on demand • Demonstrate use of theoretically derived S-C meta-models • Code & manage data in multiple security enclaves • Decision support for model selection & composition Focus: •End-to-end Capability •Analyst & Planners able to take command challenge problem & offer valid, model-based solutions that support command decision-making. •Demonstrated utility & internal validation of S-C models at meta-model level Focus: •Prepare for Transition •Documentation & Training •POR Integration •In-Theater Operational use testing & Utility assessment Focus: •Tools sustained via Programs Of Record Metrics: • Demonstrate repository mapping of Open Source Data • Define S-C Auto- Tagging of structured data • Baseline models show theoretically derived dependencies interaction • Demo Model integration using fixed data & models Metrics: • 200% reduction in time for trend analysis • 82% Meta-Data Coding Accuracy • Dynamically Map new data source into frame work <8 Person-Hours. • Planner able to compose models to address requirement <8 Person-Hours Metrics: • Automatic detection of significant changes in S-C Topology. • Models optimized and support assessment of COA < 8 Person- Hours. • “Shrink Wrap” solutions for 3 mission areas • 92% Coding Accuracy • Automatic anomaly detection from open source data • System guided drill down into model pedigree & data for Analyst SA & Command decision-maker OA. Metrics: • Models adapted for use as tools to support 3 operational missions at 2 different echelons • Able to exploit live data in theater < 6 Hours 6 Mo. 8 Mo. 18 Months 12 Months 16Months 19
    20. 20. 20 Pathways: Evidence of Success From: To: Arbitrary technical approaches guiding tool development Combine Empirical and Theory Driven Approaches Interactive Visualization Static views with no visibility into inner workings Hybrid Modeling Engine Supporting “mash-up” with data & tailoring on demand One-off solutions with hard- wired models & data End-to-End SystemModel Components User Composeable - Scaleable Framework Custom, brittle, implementations Hybrid Modeling for Navigating the Socio-Cultural Topology
    21. 21. 21 Combating Terrorism Technical Support Office, (CTTSO) Human Social, Culture & Behavior Modeling Program (HSCB) Questions? HSCB Pathways Program Defining a Navigation Framework for Socio-Cultural Topology Jeffrey G. Morrison, Ph.D morrisonj@tswg.gov 703.604.0339
    22. 22. BACKUP 22
    23. 23. FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Initial Insights, Concerns & Caveats • Insights & Concerns: – Pathways needs to define Challenge Problems (by program phase). • Clear, Compelling, Operationally Relevant • Framed in a suitable context – S-C Theory derived meta-models – Strategically chosen Mission Areas – Assessment & Metrics – Evolving as we go … we need input ASAP! • Programmatic – What progress are you making & is it consistent with the plan? • Technical – Does it do anything? Does it do what it needs to do? • Operational – Does it do anything useful & of interest to our customers? Why should we care? • Transition – Will it go / is it going … anywhere? 23
    24. 24. FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Initial Insights, Concerns & Caveats • Insights & Concerns: – Need to develop “stories” for inside (HSCB) & outside consumption (Scientific Modeling /End-users) (Know you audience!!) • Vision: Complementary... To HSCB, to each other, to related sponsored efforts • Mission, Goals & Objectives (by program phase) – Technology Integration Events (TIEs) & Formal Assessments – HSCB Outreach Events… as directed. • Need media & stories ASAP to support “emergent” HSCB outreach events. 24
    25. 25. FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY25 Tell a “Story” • BLUF: You need a story... – You need to tell us what you are going to do... – It needs to have an elevator speech ... – Every story will be different (know your audience!)… – We need supporting media (stand alone): Posters, 3-Minute Video, etc. – We will do what we can to help… • Each project needs to tell a story that makes it clear where you are going, why it is important, how it is relevant to HSCB / Pathways, and why it will make a difference • Heilmeier Catechism: (George H. Heilmeier, DARPA TD 1975-77) • What are we trying to do? • How does this get done at present? Who does it? What are the limitations of the present approaches? • What is new about your approach? Why do we think you can be successful at this time? • If you succeed, what differences do you think it will make? • How long do you think it will take? What are your mid-term and final exams? • How much will it cost?
    26. 26. FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Notional Pathways Story Template • Commander Smith needs to know X in order to do Y – turns to his staff… • An analyst has n hours to help the commander. He breaks the information need into these questions: A, B, C. • He uses (Pathways Framework) as a decision support system to find best available information that will answer the questions. – Discovers models that might help answer the questions – Looks for and discovers contextually relevant data that could feed the models. – Assesses the applicability of data to the models & conditions the data as needed. – Develops (or verifies) an understanding the S-C topology. (Note: May link together models to create the needed S-C Topology.) – Starts Hybrid Modeling; linking models & data together to create Courses Of Action (COAs) within the topology (s). Documents Assumptions & Limitations. – Evaluates COAs & Develops recommendations – Packages Recommendations to give to Commander. – Command staff looks at recommendations and have visibility into supporting models / analyses. • Commander makes decisions, wins the war, and everyone lives happily ever after! 26
    27. 27. DEVELOPMENT CONTEXT OPTIONS Pathways Kick-Off Guidance NEXUS Proposal PRISM Proposal 27
    28. 28. 28 Pathways Nexus Team Advanced Technology Laboratories For Official Use Only Preliminary Recommendations • SSTR – Somalia - Hospital opening in Mogadishu – Leverage LM pathfinder project (availability of initial models, data) – Scenario defined by LM SME (Alex Moore) – value / correctness verified w/ active duty members of reserves • IO - Mexico – Influence campaign / Military campaign analysis – Leverage LM Opinion Propagation Models, structured equation models – Leverage relevant Columbian analyses / models – agent based models related to drug interdiction operations • Stability Analysis - Congo – Potential partition / stability analyses – Potential leverage of statistical models and open source models – Leverage of LM – ORNL Shared vision program – Congo interest – Considered high interest to AFRICOM • IO - Disappearance of Leaders – Single Bullet – Multiple theories could be implemented as models – Significant literature on authoritarian governments – Instances of models could be applied to multiple situations
    29. 29. 29 HSCB Analysis Users Category User (Analyst) Organizations HSCB Roles Strategic Human Factors Analysis Human Factors Analyst HF IPT;DIA; JIOC Global Harvest, NASIC, NGIC, 4POG, others Rigorous analysis of foreign individuals and networks Special Analysis; Manhunt SOCOM; SKOPE; others All-source analysis; focus problems Cultural Analysis and Targeting SOCOM All-source analysis; focus problems Targeting Analysis NSA Special analysis; focus problems Operational Socio-Cultural Dynamics Analysis Human Terrain Geospatial Intelligence Analyst (General) NGA HT Pilot program developing broad application analytic methodology S2/J2 Intel Analyst ; PMESII targeting Cells Brigade and Above COCOMS (ex. PACOM Socio-cultural Dynamics Center) DCGS-A users; JIPOE analysis; socio-cultural HTS Reach-back Cell TRADOC CONUS expert support to HTT’s Targeting; Socio-Cultural Analyst JIEDDO COIC Threat targeting analysis; social environment analysis Operational/Tactical Field Analysis S2 Intel Analyst Brigade and Below COCOM S2 cell JIPOE analysis; socio-cultural HTT Human Terrain System- Human Terrain Team (HTT) TRADOC Support BCT Brigade Combat Team; Interact with S3 effects cell Stability Operations Information Center (SOIC) Analyst COCOM Social analysis; populations, organizations, leaders and influences
    30. 30. 30 HSCB Planning Users Category User (Planner) Organizations HSCB Roles Strategic and Operational Influence Planning Strategic Influence Planner CIA, DIA; COCOMs Develop national level deterrence, influence plans (Strategic Communication, IO, Lethal Force) Operational PSYOP Planner SOCOM; 4POG Plan operational PSYOP campaigns and activities National IO Planner STRATCOM (JIOWC) ISPAN; VISION (JFCOM) Perform coordinated theater and national-level IO planning Operational Planning Support J3 IO Planners COCOM J3 Cells, JIEDDO, Ist IO Command, other IO cells Plan coordinated Information Operations campaigns Wargaming Analysts (J8) Joint Collaborative Analysis Conf (JCAC) IPT Conduct socio-cultural analyses in support of Operational-level planning Classified Task Cells JWAC Special planning activities Operational Field Planners S3 PMESII Targeting Cells XVII Airborne, others Plan and monitor special PMESII targeting actions S3 Brigade and below IO lanners COCOM Units Tactical level, rapid response planning; HSCB provides support with planning products (organized information, progress tracking, human terrain products, etc.) S5 Brigade and Below Planners COCOM units
    31. 31. 31 Challenge 1 – COIN Operations in Afghanistan • Three ISAF LOOs – Governance – Development – Security • Data: Availability of adequate social-cultural and economic data. • Decision Support: Availability of decision support tools in combination with data to: – Enable analysts to understand social-cultural dynamics – Enable planners to develop lines of effort and COA’s within the S-C context – Enable policy-makers to make effective decisions and create measurable social, security, economic opportunities in Afghanistan. Inefficient or Corrupt Governance Practices; Urban- Rural divide Dynamic social political environment; violent disruptions and coercive influences Widely distributed rural societies; embedded threats Social-Cultural Analysis Challenges in Quasi-Stable Environments Regional geo- political influences
    32. 32. 32 Challenge 2- Strategic Influence Planning in HOA • Phase 0 (Shaping) Challenges – Counter growing influence of China – Preventing spill-over of instability across borders – Deny safe havens • Data: Sparse social-cultural and economic data to support sources of influence and behavior to sources • Decision Support: Availability of decision support tools in combination with data to: – Enable analysts to understand diverse interests, perspectives, perceptions, and influences – Enable planners to develop lines of effort and COA’s within the S-C context – Enable policy-makers to make effective decisions and create measurable effects of Strategic Communications, diplomatic , security, and economic COA’s. Horn of Africa • AFRICOM challenge problems; phase 0 shaping • Tribal power struggles; environmental degradation; resource competition • Marginal infrastructure; limited media sources • Competing foreign influences
    33. 33. PROJECT QUAD CHARTS
    34. 34. For Official Use Only NEXUS Pathways Integrated Socio-Cultural Model and Data Exploitation for Multiple Missions & Granularity Schedule: 60 Months PERFORMERS: Lockheed Martin, Lustick Consulting, SAE Inc. , The Penn State University, The Rendon Group TECHNICAL APPROACH: Unlock and link the power of heterogeneous models, simulations, tools, and data through a services oriented architecture (SOA) focused on: • Providing innovative modeling and data analytic capabilities including composing hybrid models, semantic and theoretically grounded model interoperability, mixed- method forecast triangulation, etc. • Implementing translation and brokering services to support data-dependent modeling/simulation needs from a virtual distributed heterogeneous pool of data sources. • Demonstrating framework flexibility by handling high- volume input of raw structured and unstructured data sources to feed a range of mission-specific prototypes. OBJECTIVE: Exploit a broad range of extant and evolving heterogeneous Socio-Cultural Modeling and Simulation services to foster improved 1) Situation Understanding and Exploitation; (2) Cultural Drivers and Theories; 3) Course of Action Assessment and (4) Decision Support Options MILITARY RELEVANCE: Forecast and Assess the impact and consequences of potential actions on beliefs of hostile, friendly, and neutral actors for specific areas and contexts of interest. Enable commanders and command staff to readily collect, model, forecast, and monitor pertinent situation, trends, and activities. Support a broad range of critical military mission areas including Stability, Security, Transition and Reconstruction (SSTR), Influence Operations (IO), Stability Analysis, Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Relief (HA/DR), etc. Task FY 10 FY 11 FY 12 FY 15 Capability Develop. & utility assessment System Design FY 14FY 13 Concept Development and Requirements System Prototype Development and Evaluation Capability Enhance, Eval & Transition
    35. 35. 35 SCHEDULE: TECHNICAL APPROACH: Develop and Implement a Computational Model-Based Analysis Capability: • Modeling: Build and compose custom computational models of the environment • Data Management: Construct a data management system capability to support model building and sharing • Interactive Viewing: Explore causal chains and indirect consequences of actions. MILITARY RELEVANCE / OPERATIONAL IMPACT: Improve intelligence modeling and analysis using integrated analysis tools supported by critical automated information management and coding processes. Provide tools to extract and monitor metrics such that the effects of given actions can be understood by the command staff. Task FY 10 FY 11 FY 12 FY 15 Capability Develop. & utility assessment System Design FY 14FY 13 Concept Development and Requirements System Prototype Development and Evaluation Capability Enhance, Eval & Transition OBJECTIVES: Develop and implement an hybrid modeling system to be both scalable & robust, and can be transitioned to operational use. PRISM features: provide for unbiased, objective, valid science-based tools to enable DOD Stability Operations, Analysis, Intelligence, and Experimentation. PRISM Team Analysis J2 Planning J5 (plan) J3 (0ps) J8 (Assessment)Data Acquisition Reporting Analysis Plan Assessment Plan Execution Situation Assessment Mission Intent Plan Development Data Translation •Language •Extraction •Organize •Search •Acquire •Metatag •Structure •Model,Test •Anticipate Social-Cultural Target •Summarize;explain •Focus Issues •Warn,Predict •Conceive Courses of actions within constraints, restraints,and resources •Assess COA’s, effects and outcomes 2532, 2533 Data Mgmt, Brokering 2531 Scalable Modeling System
    36. 36. ‹#›© 2010 Oculus Info Inc. HSCB Modeling Visualization Framework SCHEDULE: OBJECTIVE ● Design, develop and implement “Aperture” an open source interactive visualization framework and API. ● Implement using web services / protocols. ● Demonstrate model developer and analyst plug-and-play, component-based, “mashup” approach to modeling. ● Deliver “Aperture” as non-proprietary, components in a Services Oriented Architecture (SOA). MILITARY RELEVANCE/OPERATIONAL IMPACT ● Support interaction for a wide range of operation user scenarios. ● Provide modelers and operators key visualization capability including time-line views, geo-spatial views, social network graphs, etc. TECHNICAL APPROACH • Design and implement easy-to-use, innovative and interoperable visualization foundation “vizlets”. • Provide interactive visualization as reference implementation for integration and extension by PRISM and NEXUS modeling teams. • Provide Aperture as a Web 2.0, SOA framework, APIs and documentation under an open source license. • Collaborate with Topic One Teams and expert panels. • Deliver tested documented releases of Aperture framework every six months. Task FY 10 FY 11 FY 12 FY 13 Requirements Definition and Analysis Develop SOA compliant Prototype & System Eval. System Demonstration, Deployment & Transition System Design of Framework Architecture PERFORMER: TRANSITION: PRISM & NEXUS Architecture Tier 1: Basic Integration 1 Authentication and Authorization 2 Persistence 3 Container and Vizlet Services Tier 2: Enhanced Integration 4 Selection Model 5 Pasteboard 6 Command Stack and Activity Logging 7 Data Mapping, Filtering and Highlighting Tier 3: Resource Services 8 Layout Managers 9 GeoAssociation, Place Disambiguation, Geolocation and Map Services 10 Iconography Service Aperture Services and Vizlet Components
    1. A particular slide catching your eye?

      Clipping is a handy way to collect important slides you want to go back to later.

    ×