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Facebook ipo
 

Facebook ipo

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En aquesta Friday analitzarem el cas de la sortida a borsa de Facebook i la compararem amb altres empreses tecnològiques que cotitzen a borsa. Des de llavors, les accions han caigut més d'un 50% i ...

En aquesta Friday analitzarem el cas de la sortida a borsa de Facebook i la compararem amb altres empreses tecnològiques que cotitzen a borsa. Des de llavors, les accions han caigut més d'un 50% i el co-fundador i CEO de Facebook, Mark Zuckerberg, s'ha vist obligat a anunciar que no vendrà cap de les seves accions al menys fins el 2014. Per la gent no familiaritzada amb la borsa explicarem els conceptes bàsics per tal d'entendre-la, i analitzarem un fenòmen típic de les empreses que comercialitzen amb la informació: l'Information Gap Value.

Era previsible tot això? Es tracta d'una bombolla? Encara han de baixar molt més les accions? No existeixen respostes per totes aquestes qüestions, només es pot analitzar les dades disponibles i discutir-les entre tots per tal de que cadascú es configuri el seu propi criteri.

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  • Great !
    Facebook looks like a new Ponzi Scheme… at least until the first dividend is provided :))
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    Facebook ipo Facebook ipo Presentation Transcript

    • Facebook IPO @francescgo #Ftraining 07/09/2012
    • First of all “ Capitalism is the astounding belief that the most wickedest of men will do the most wickedest of things for the greatest good of everyone.John Maynard Keynes ”
    • BasicsStock (Capital Social)original capital paid into or invested in thebusiness by its founders.
    • BasicsShares of Stock (Acciones)The stock of a business is divided into multipleshares.Shares represent a fraction of ownership in abusiness.
    • BasicsStock exchange (Bolsa de Valores)A place where shares of stock(and other securities)are traded
    • BasicsIPO - Initial Public Offering(OPV – Oferta Pública de Venta)Shares of stock in a company are sold to thegeneral public, for the first time.
    • Why an IPO?1.to raise expansion capitalIn an IPO, the money paid by the investingpublic for the newly issued shares goes directlyto the company (primary offering)
    • Why an IPO?2.to possibly monetize the investments of earlyprivate investorsIn an IPO, the money paid can also go to anyearly private investors who opt to sell all or aportion of their holdings (secondary offering)
    • Why an IPO?3.to become publicly traded enterprisesEnlarging and diversifying equity baseEnabling cheaper access to capitalIncreasing public imageFacilitating AcquisitionsAttracting and Retaining talent through liquidequity participation
    • Largest IPOs$22,10 b Agricultural Bank of China (2010)$21,90 b Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (2006)$20,50 b American International Assurance(2010)$19,70 b Visa Inc. (2008)$18,15 b General Motors (2010)$16,00 b Facebook, Inc. (2012)
    • Largest Internet IPOs
    • Pricing of IPOUnderwriters set the pricing of IPOs, and manyfactors are taken into considerationOffering price must below enough to stimulate interest in the stock,but high enough to raise an adequate amountof capital for the company.
    • Why Facebook IPO?When the number of Facebook shareholders crossed the 500 threshold, it had to take the company public
    • Facebook IPO pricingFacebook went public on May 18, 2012Underwriters settled on a price of $38 per shareFacebook debuted with 421 million shares $38 x 421m = $16 b raised
    • Facebook IPOCompany180 million sharesInvestors241 million shares $6,84 b $9,16 b Primary Offering Secundary Offering
    • Distributors of the cake
    • Facebook IPO Market CapitalizationMay 18, 2012 $38 per shareFacebook Share count: 2,7 billionMarket Capitalization: $102,60 b
    • Facebook Value Market Capitalization Vs Facebook “Real” Value Market Capitalization Assets ¿¿?? 100000 90000 80000 70000 60000Millions of US $ 50000 83800 90400 40000 30000 20000 10000 6600 0 Market Capitalization Real Value
    • Information Value Gap Market Capitalization Vs Information Value Gap = Facebook “Real” Value Financial Value of Facebook Information Market Capitalization Assets ¿¿?? Assets = $83,80 b 100000 90000 Facebook monetizable pieces of 80000 information for the last 3 years = 2,11 · 1012 (likes, comments…)* 70000Millions of US $ 60000 “like” value = 50000 90400 83800 $83,80 b / 2,11 t = 40000 $0,04 30000 20000 10000 6600 0 Market Capitalization Real Value *http://www.brucemacvarish.com/2012/05/creating-value-from-information-assets.html
    • User Value2,11 Trillions 845 Millions 2500 Pieces of Monthly Active Pieces of information for Users (MAUs) information for the last three December 2011 each active user years User Value = $83.800M / 845M = $99
    • There was bubble? Market Value 600 500 400$ billions 300 523,71 200 245,14 100 193,46 170,08 87,74 67,37 15,33 0 25/05/2012 FB APPL GOOG KO (Coca-Cola) MSFT SAN.MC (Banco Santander) GAS.MC (Gas Natural)
    • PERPER (Price to Earnings Ratio) That can be read How many years receiving dividends do I need to make the price of the share
    • There was Bubble? PER ratio 80 70 60Price-to-Earnings Ratio 50 40 74,04 30 20 10 17,98 20,03 13,65 10,69 6,92 6,33 0 25/05/2012 FB APPL GOOG KO (Coca-Cola) MSFT SAN.MC (Banco Santander) GAS.MC (Gas Natural)
    • There was Bubble?Source: Wikipedia
    • Facebook After IPO
    • Facebook after IPO Facebook Value Market Capitalization Assets Information Value Gap 4,50E+10 4,00E+10 3,50E+10 3,00E+10 2,57E+10 2,50E+10US $ 2,00E+10 4,07E+10 1,50E+10 1,00E+10 1,49E+10 5,00E+09 0,00E+00 Market Capitalization Real Value
    • Information Value Gap Evolution 1E+11 8,38E+10 7,5E+10US $ 5E+10 2,5E+10 2,57E+10 0 25/05/2012 06/09/2012
    • Like value evolution $0,05 $0,04 $0,04 $0,03US $ $0,02 $0,01 $0,01 $- 25/05/2012 06/09/2012
    • User Value Evolution $100,00 $99,17 $75,00US $ $50,00 $26,96 $25,00 $- 25/05/2012 06/09/2012
    • Market Value Evolution Market Value 700 600 500$ billions 400 633,94 300 523,71 200 245,14 262,78 228,73 100 193,46 170,08 171,75 87,74 67,37 15,33 74,64 13,43 40,62 0 25/05/2012 06/09/2012 FB APPL GOOG KO (Coca-Cola) MSFT SAN.MC (Banco Santander) GAS.MC (Gas Natural)
    • PER Evolution PER Evolution 80 70 60Price-to-Earnings Ratio 50 40 74,04 30 43,79 20 10 17,98 20,03 20,73 20,2 13,65 15,89 15,67 15,2 10,69 6,92 6,33 7,49 0 25/05/2012 06/09/2012 FB APPL GOOG KO (Coca-Cola) MSFT SAN.MC (Banco Santander) GAS.MC (Gas Natural)
    • Consequences• CEO Mark Zuckerberg will not sell any more stock for at least a year (he sold $1.1 billion at $38 on the IPO)• On October 29, 234 million employee-owned shares will become available for sale• The company will withhold 101 million shares of stock out of a total of 234 million shares that are owed to employees on October 25. (That means: Facebook buys 101 million shares at $19) http://www.businessinsider.com/facebook-share-buyback-2012-9
    • In plain English• Facebook is going to retire the stock it withholds from employees and then give the cash value of these shares to the government (tax payment) 101 million shares x $19 = $1,92 b
    • But remember…• Only a few days before its IPO, underwriters raised the expected price of the shares $10. The Company sold 180 million shares $10 x 180 m shares = $1,7 b
    • Ponzi Scheme Fraudulent investment operation that pays returns to its investors from their own money or the money paid by subsequent investors, rather than from profit earned by the individual or organization running the operation
    • Is Facebook a legal Ponzi Scheme?So far Facebook is a Ponzi Scheme… at least until the first dividend is provided
    • “Facebook IPO”by Francesc Gomez-Moralesis licensed under aCreative Commons Reconocimiento-Nocomercial-Compartir bajo la misma licencia3.0 España License.