Recent findings suggesting a global supply shortage of rare earth elements has created a panic
among end users and a gold rush among miners. IMARC Group, one of the world‘s leading
research and advisory firms, finds that with a number of new mines starting production in the
next five years, the total supply of rare earth elements will be significantly more than the
total demand. Although, a number of rare earth elements would be oversupplied, we may
face a shortage of some elements that are critical for the long term growth of the clean
technology industry.
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“The Global Rare Earth Elements Market 2011-2015
1.
2. Report Description & Highlights
Recent findings suggesting a global supply shortage of rare earth elements has created a panic
among end users and a gold rush among miners. IMARC Group, one of the world‘s leading
research and advisory firms, finds that with a number of new mines starting production in the
next five years, the total supply of rare earth elements will be significantly more than the
total demand. Although, a number of rare earth elements would be oversupplied, we may
face a shortage of some elements that are critical for the long term growth of the clean
technology industry.
IMARC‘s new report entitled “The Global Rare Earth Elements Market 2011-2015: Is the
Hype Justified?” provides an analytical and statistical insight into the global rare earth
elements market. The study that has been undertaken using both desk-based as well as
qualitative primary research has analyzed five aspects of the rare earth elements market.
Key Aspects Analyzed:
Understanding the Mining Economics of Rare Earth Elements:
Focus of the Analysis:
Rare earth mine valuation
Stages and time taken to develop and start production at a rare earth mine
The total costs involved in rare earth mining
Mining and downstream processing of rare earth elements
Rare earth element pricing
Understanding China’s Role in the Global Rare Earth Elements Market:
Focus of the Analysis:
China’s role in the global supply and demand of rare earth elements
Reasons for China’s dominance
China’s current and future supply strategies
3. Comprehensive Situation Analysis of the Global Rare Earth Elements Market:
Focus of the analysis:
Quantifying the historical sales and production of rare earth elements
Identification and evaluation of current global rare earth mines
Identification and evaluation of mines expected to begin production in the next five years
Current and future consumption of rare earth elements
Evaluating the Supply and Demand of Various Rare Earth Elements:
Focus of the analysis:
Quantifying the production of each element from current and future mines
Quantifying the current and future demand of each element
Historical, current and future prices of each element
Evaluating the supply risks of each element and its importance for clean technology
Identification of critically undersupplied and oversupplied rare earth elements
Evaluating the Demand of Rare Earth Elements in Various Industries
Focus of the analysis:
Quantifying the current and future size of each Industry
Quantifying the current and future demands of rare earth elements in each industry
Identification of industries having the highest demand of rare earth elements.
Information Sources:
Information has been sourced from both primary and secondary sources:
Primary sources include industry surveys and face to face/telephone interviews with
industry experts.
Secondary sources include proprietary databases and search engines. These sources
include company websites and reports, books, trade journals, magazines, white
papers, industry portals, government sources and access to more than 4000 paid
databases.
Imarc®
4. Table of Contents
1. Research Methodology & Market Definitions ................................................................................................ 4
2. Executive Summary ....................................................................................................................................... 14
3. What are Rare Earth Elements? .................................................................................................................... 19
4. Rare Earth Elements: Are They Really Rare? .............................................................................................. 21
4.1 Reserve & Reserve Base Estimates .......................................................................................................... 21
4.2 How Long will they Last?............................................................................................................................ 25
5. Rare Earth Elements: Mining Economics .................................................................................................... 27
5.1 Mine Valuation: Grades & Composition are Key ........................................................................................ 27
5.2 Development of a New Project: Can Take Several Years .......................................................................... 28
5.3 Rare Earth Mining Costs: Largely Location and Grade Dependent ............................................................ 31
5.3.1 Infrastructure & Capital Costs ............................................................................................................ 31
5.3.2 Operating Costs ................................................................................................................................. 32
5.4 Mining & Processing................................................................................................................................... 35
5.4.1 Mining ................................................................................................................................................ 35
5.4.2 Downstream Processing .................................................................................................................... 37
5.5 Prices: Have Risen Several Fold in Recent Years ..................................................................................... 39
5.5.1 Factors Affecting Rare Earth Element Prices ..................................................................................... 39
5.5.2 Historical Prices ................................................................................................................................. 40
5.5.3 Pricing Forecast ................................................................................................................................. 41
6. China’s Role in the Global Rare Earth Elements Market ............................................................................ 43
6.1 China Has a Monopoly Over Rare Earth Elements .................................................................................... 43
6.2 Mining Costs in China Are Significantly Lower Than Other Rare Earth Producers .................................... 44
6.3 Miners Have Benefitted from the Lack of Proper Working Standards and Environmental Regulations ...... 45
6.4 China Has a Significantly Higher In-house Expertise Compared to Other Rare Earth Producers .............. 46
6.5 China is Decreasing Export Quotas as its Own Domestic Demand is Expected to Outstrip Supply .......... 46
6.6 China Aims to Become an Exporter of Higher Value Goods ...................................................................... 48
7. The Global Rare Earth Elements Market ...................................................................................................... 50
7.1 Total Sales & Production of Rare Earth Elements ...................................................................................... 50
7.2 Production of Rare Earth Elements by Region ........................................................................................... 52
7.2.1 Current Operational Mines ................................................................................................................. 56
7.2.1.1 Bayan Obo, China ..................................................................................................................... 56
7.2.1.2 Longnan, China ......................................................................................................................... 57
7.2.1.3 Xunwu, China ............................................................................................................................ 58
7.2.1.4 India .......................................................................................................................................... 59
7.2.1.5 Eastern Coast, Brazil ................................................................................................................ 60
7.2.1.6 Lahat, Malaysia ......................................................................................................................... 61
7.2.2 Potential New Projects ....................................................................................................................... 62
7.2.2.1 Mt. Weld, Australia .................................................................................................................... 62
7.2.2.2 Mountain Pass, United States ................................................................................................... 63
7.2.2.3 Nolans, Australia ....................................................................................................................... 64
7.2.2.4 Steenkampskraal, South Africa ................................................................................................. 65
7.2.2.5 Nechalacho, Canada ................................................................................................................. 66
7.2.2.6 Kvanefjeld, Greenland ............................................................................................................... 66
7.2.2.7 Dong Pao, Vietnam ................................................................................................................... 67
7.2.2.8 Dubbo Zirconia, Australia .......................................................................................................... 68
7.3 Consumption of Rare Earth Elements by Region ....................................................................................... 70
7.3.1 China ................................................................................................................................................. 71
7.3.2 Japan & Northeast Asia ..................................................................................................................... 72
7.3.3 US ...................................................................................................................................................... 73
8. Supply & Demand of Individual Rare Earth Elements ................................................................................ 74
8.1 Elements that will Face Supply Shortages in the Near Future ................................................................... 76
8.1.1 Terbium .............................................................................................................................................. 76
Imarc®
8. List of Tables
Table 1-1: Rare Earth Elements: Light & Heavy Definitions ......................................................................................... 12
Table 3-1: Rare Earth Elements: Characteristics & Applications.................................................................................. 20
Table 4-1: Global: Rare Earth Metals: Reserve & Reserve Base Estimates by Country (in Million Metric Tons) ......... 25
Table 5-1: Light & Heavy Rare Earth Elements: Key Barriers to Entry......................................................................... 28
Table 5-2: Total Time & Stages Required in Constructing & Bringing a Rare Earth Mine to Production ...................... 29
Table 5-3: Rare Earth Elements: Mining & Processing Costs ...................................................................................... 31
Table 5-4: Thor Lake Rare Earth Mine: Total Infrastructure & Capital Costs, (in Million US$) ..................................... 32
Table 5-5: Thor Lake Rare Earth Mine: Breakup of Capital Costs, (in Million US$) ..................................................... 32
Table 5-6: Thor Lake Rare Earth Mine: Operational Costs Involved in Underground Mining and Preparation of a Bulk
Concentrate, (Cost US$ Per Metric Ton of Ore Mined) ................................................................................................ 33
Table 5-7: Thor Lake Rare Earth Mine: Operational Costs Involved in Hydrometallurgical Processing, (Cost US$ Per
Metric Ton of Ore Mined) ............................................................................................................................................. 33
Table 5-8: Thor Lake Rare Earth Mine: Total Operational Costs Involved in Mining & Processing, (Cost US$ Per
Metric Ton of Ore Mined) ............................................................................................................................................. 34
Table 5-9: Sources of Rare Earth Elements & Their Composition ............................................................................... 36
Table 5-10: Average Annual Prices of Individual Rare Earth Elements, (in US$/Kg), 2007-2011 ................................ 41
Table 5-11: Average Annual Price Forecast of Individual Rare Earth Elements, (in US$/Kg), 2011-2015 ................... 42
Table 6-1: China: Rare Earth Elements Export Quota (in Metric Tons), 2005 – 2011 .................................................. 47
Table 7-1: Global: Rare Earth Elements Production by Country (in Metric Tons), 1995-2002 .....................................53
Table 7-2: Global: Rare Earth Elements Production by Country (in Metric Tons), 2003-2010 .....................................53
Table 7-3: Global: Rare Earth Elements Production by Country & Mine Forecast (in Metric Tons), 2011-2015 .......... 54
Table 7-4: Global: Distribution of Elements in Various Rare Earth Mines, (in %) ......................................................... 55
Table 7-5: Bayan Obo Rare Earth Mine: Composition of Various Elements, (in %) ..................................................... 56
Table 7-6: Longnan Rare Earth Mine: Composition of Various Elements, (in %) ........................................................ 57
Table 7-7: Xunwu Rare Earth Mine: Composition of Various Elements, (in %) ........................................................... 58
Table 7-8: India Rare Earth Mine: Composition of Various Elements, (in %) ............................................................... 59
Table 7-9: Eastern Coast Rare Earth Mine: Composition of Various Elements, (in %) ............................................... 60
Table 7-10: Lahat Rare Earth Mine: Composition of Various Elements, (in %) ........................................................... 61
Table 7-11: Mt Weld Rare Earth Mine: Composition of Various Elements, (in %) ....................................................... 62
Table 7-12: Mountain Pass Rare Earth Mine: Composition of Various Elements, (in %) ............................................ 63
Table 7-13: Nolans Rare Earth Mine: Composition of Various Elements, (in %) ......................................................... 64
Table 7-14: Steenkampskraal Rare Earth Mine: Composition of Various Elements, (in %) ........................................65
Table 7-15: Nechalacho Rare Earth Mine: Composition of Various Elements, (in %) ................................................. 66
Table 7-16: Kvanefjeld Rare Earth Mine: Composition of Various Elements, (in %) ................................................... 67
Table 7-17: Dong Pao Rare Earth Mine: Composition of Various Elements, (in %) .................................................... 68
Table 7-18: Dubbo Zirconia Rare Earth Mine: Composition of Various Elements, (in %)............................................ 69
Table 7-19: Global: Rare Earth Elements Consumption by Region & Application, (in Metric Tons), 2010 ................... 70
Table 7-20: Global: Rare Earth Elements Consumption by Region & Application Forecast, (in Metric Tons), 2015 .... 71
Table 7-21: China: Rare Earth Elements Consumption by Application, (in Metric Tons), 2010 & 2015 ....................... 72
Table 7-22: Japan & Northeast Asia: Rare Earth Elements Consumption by Application, (in Metric Tons), 2010 &
2015 ............................................................................................................................................................................. 73
Table 7-23: US: Rare Earth Elements Consumption by Application, (in Metric Tons), 2010 & 2015............................ 73
Table 8-1: Global: Supply of Various Rare Earth Elements (in Metric Tons), 2010-2015............................................. 74
Table 8-2: Global: Composition of Various Rare Earth Elements, (in %) 2010-2015 ................................................... 75
Table 8-3: Global: Supply & Demand of Various Rare Earth Elements, (in Metric Tons), 2015 ................................... 75
Table 8-4: Terbium: Overview, Importance to Clean Energy & Supply Risk ................................................................ 76
Table 8-5: Global: Terbium Production: Break-up by Mine (in Metric Tons), 2010 - 2015............................................ 77
Table 8-6: Dysprosium: Overview, Importance to Clean Energy & Supply Risk........................................................... 79
Table 8-7: Global: Dysprosium Production: Break-up by Mine (in Metric Tons), 2010 - 2015 ......................................80
Table 8-8: Neodymium: Overview, Importance to Clean Energy & Supply Risk .......................................................... 82
Table 8-9: Global: Neodymium Production: Break-up by Mine (in Metric Tons), 2010 - 2015 ......................................83
Table 8-10: Europium: Overview, Importance to Clean Energy & Supply Risk ............................................................ 85
Table 8-11: Global: Europium Production: Break-up by Mine (in Metric Tons), 2010 - 2015 ......................................86
Table 8-12: Yttrium: Overview, Importance to Clean Energy & Supply Risk ................................................................ 89
Table 8-13: Global: Yttrium Production: Break-up by Mine (in Metric Tons), 2010 - 2015 .......................................... 90
Table 8-14: Lanthanum: Overview, Importance to Clean Energy & Supply Risk ......................................................... 92
Table 8-15: Global: Lanthanum: Production Break-up by Mine (in Metric Tons), 2010 - 2015 .....................................94
Table 8-16: Cerium: Overview, Importance to Clean Energy & Supply Risk ................................................................ 95
Table 8-17: Global: Cerium: Production Break-up by Mine (in Metric Tons), 2010 - 2015 ........................................... 97
Table 8-18: Praseodymium: Overview, Importance to Clean Energy & Supply Risk.................................................... 99
Table 8-19: Global: Praseodymium: Production Break-up by Mine (in Metric Tons), 2010 - 2015 ............................. 100
Table 8-20: Samarium: Overview, Importance to Clean Energy & Supply Risk ......................................................... 102
Table 8-21: Global: Samarium: Production Break-up by Mine (in Metric Tons), 2010 - 2015 .................................... 103
Imarc®
9. Table 9-1: Global: Demand of Rare Earth Elements by Application, (in Metric Tons), 2010-2015 ............................. 106
Table 9-2: Global: Share of Rare Earth Elements by Application, (in %), 2010-2015 ................................................ 106
Table 9-3: Global: Production of NdFeB Magnets & Rare Earth Element Consumption, (in Metric Tons), 2010-2015
................................................................................................................................................................................... 109
Table 9-4: Global: Production of NiMH Battery Alloys & Rare Earth Element Consumption, (in Metric Tons), 2010-
2015 ........................................................................................................................................................................... 110
Table 9-5: Global: Demand for Auto Catalysts & Rare Earth Elements Consumption, (in Metric Tons), 2010-2015 . 111
Table 9-6: Global: Demand of Cerium Oxide for Diesel Fuel Borne Catalysts, (in Metric Tons), 2010-2015 ............. 113
Table 9-7: Global Demand of FCC Catalysts & Rare Earth Element Consumption, (in Metric Tons), 2010-2015 ..... 113
Table 9-8: Global: Demand of Rare Earth Elements in Phosphors, (in Metric Tons), 2010-2015 .............................. 115
Table 9-9: Global: Demand of Rare Earth Elements in Major Glass Applications (in Metric Tons), 2010-2015 ......... 116
Table 9-10: Global: Demand of Rare Earth Elements in Polishing Powders (in Metric Tons), 2010-2015 ................. 117
Table 9-11: Global: Demand of Rare Earth Elements in Other Applications (in Metric Tons), ................................... 118
Table 11-1: Substitution Possibilities in Rare Earth Elements .................................................................................... 121
Table 11-2: Material Strategies by Rare Earth Reserve Rich Countries .................................................................... 123
Table 11-3: Material Strategies by Countries Not Having Rich Rare Earth Reserves ................................................ 123
Imarc®
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11. About IMARC
For more than 5 years, the International Market Analysis Research and Consulting Group has
been a leading advisor on management strategy and market research worldwide. We partner
with clients in all sectors and regions to identify their highest-value opportunities, address their
most critical challenges, and transform their businesses.
IMARC's information products include major market, scientific, economic and technological
developments for business leaders in pharmaceutical, industrial, and high technology
organizations. Market forecasts and industry analysis for biotechnology, advanced materials,
pharmaceuticals, food and beverage, travel and tourism, nanotechnology and novel processing
methods are at the top of the company's expertise.
IMARC’s tailored approach combines unfathomable insight into the dynamics of companies and
markets with close cooperation at all levels of the client organization. This ensures that our
clients achieve unmatchable competitive advantage, build more proficient organizations, and
secure lasting results.
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