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Y376 International Political Economy September 8, 2009
What is an exchange rate? ,[object Object]
What the International Monetary System Has to Do ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Definitions ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],“ surplus” means balance is positive “ deficit” means balance is negative
Figure 2-12. U.S. Balance of Trade in Goods and Services and Balance of Payments on Current Account, 1946-2006, in Billions of Current Dollars Source:  Economic Report of the President   2008 ,  http://www.gpoaccess.gov/eop/tables08.html .
U.S. Balance of Trade, 2008-2009
Structural Imbalance ,[object Object],[object Object]
What is a Key Currency? ,[object Object]
Figure 2-6. The Dollar as Percent of Total Official Foreign Currency Holdings, 1978, 1986, 1996, and 2007 Source: International Monetary Fund,  Annual Reports , various years.
Special Status of Key Currency Country ,[object Object],[object Object]
Structural Surplus Countries ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Figure 2.14. US-China and US-Japan Bilateral Trade Deficits, in Billions of Dollars,1991-2006 Source:  Economic Report of the President 2000 and 2008 .
Figure 2-10. Balance of Payments in the G-5 Countries, 1970-2007, in Billions of Current Dollars Source: World Bank,  World Development Indicators 2001 on CD-ROM; OECD.StatExtracts,  http://webnet.oecd.org/wbos/Index.aspx .
The Nixon Shock of 1971 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Nixon, Connally, and the Smithsonian Agreement
Figure 2-6. Volatility in Deutsche Mark (DM) and Yen Exchange Rates with the U.S. Dollar, 1965-1979, Percentage Changes from the Previous Month Source:  International Financial Statistics CD-ROM  (Washington, D.C.: IMF,  January 2002.
Plaza Accord ,[object Object]
Yen-Dollar and DM-Dollar Exchange Rates, 1964-1993 Nixon Shock Plaza Accords
Figure 2-13. DM-Dollar, Yen-Dollar, and Euro-Dollar Exchange Rates, 1985-2007 Source:  Economic Report of the President 2000 and 2008, http://www.gpoaccess.gov/eop/tables08.html .
Shift in the Monetary Regime After 1971
Predictions of Doom ,[object Object],[object Object]
Alternative View ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
US-China Deficit vs. Deficit with China
Yuan-Dollar Exchange Rate
Yuan-Dollar Exchange Rate Since Decision to Float

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Ipe03

  • 1. Y376 International Political Economy September 8, 2009
  • 2.
  • 3.
  • 4.
  • 5. Figure 2-12. U.S. Balance of Trade in Goods and Services and Balance of Payments on Current Account, 1946-2006, in Billions of Current Dollars Source: Economic Report of the President 2008 , http://www.gpoaccess.gov/eop/tables08.html .
  • 6. U.S. Balance of Trade, 2008-2009
  • 7.
  • 8.
  • 9. Figure 2-6. The Dollar as Percent of Total Official Foreign Currency Holdings, 1978, 1986, 1996, and 2007 Source: International Monetary Fund, Annual Reports , various years.
  • 10.
  • 11.
  • 12. Figure 2.14. US-China and US-Japan Bilateral Trade Deficits, in Billions of Dollars,1991-2006 Source: Economic Report of the President 2000 and 2008 .
  • 13. Figure 2-10. Balance of Payments in the G-5 Countries, 1970-2007, in Billions of Current Dollars Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators 2001 on CD-ROM; OECD.StatExtracts, http://webnet.oecd.org/wbos/Index.aspx .
  • 14.
  • 15. Nixon, Connally, and the Smithsonian Agreement
  • 16. Figure 2-6. Volatility in Deutsche Mark (DM) and Yen Exchange Rates with the U.S. Dollar, 1965-1979, Percentage Changes from the Previous Month Source: International Financial Statistics CD-ROM (Washington, D.C.: IMF, January 2002.
  • 17.
  • 18. Yen-Dollar and DM-Dollar Exchange Rates, 1964-1993 Nixon Shock Plaza Accords
  • 19. Figure 2-13. DM-Dollar, Yen-Dollar, and Euro-Dollar Exchange Rates, 1985-2007 Source: Economic Report of the President 2000 and 2008, http://www.gpoaccess.gov/eop/tables08.html .
  • 20. Shift in the Monetary Regime After 1971
  • 21.
  • 22.
  • 23. US-China Deficit vs. Deficit with China
  • 25. Yuan-Dollar Exchange Rate Since Decision to Float