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Spatial Mobility and Demographic Change. Causes, Effects, Regional Developmen Strategies

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Eduprof Expertmeeting 14-15 April 2011 Groningen. …

Eduprof Expertmeeting 14-15 April 2011 Groningen.

Workshop Demographic Change

General introduction by Rotraut Weeber, Hochschule für Wirtshaft und Umwelt Nürtingen - Geislingen


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  • 1. Spatial Mobility and Demographic Change Causes, Effects, Regional Development Strategies Regional Impacts of Demographic Change EDUPROF-meeting on April 14th & 15th in Groningen Prof. Dr. Christian Arndt, Economics Prof. Dr. Alfred Ruther-Mehlis, Urban PlanningArndtRuther-Mehlis Rotraut Weeber, Urban Sociology, Real Estate Prof. Dr.Weeber Dr. Christian Küpfer, Landscape and Environmental Planning Prof.Küpfer
  • 2. The HfWU University and the Research Team HfWU – University of Economics and Environment, Nürtingen/Geislingen • Region of Stuttgart • about 4000 students and 25 degree programmes • main subjects – Business and Economics, – Environmental Sciences, e.g. Environmental Planning and Protection – Urban Planning, Landscape Architecture, Agricultural Economics, – Real Estate, Energy and Resource Management.ArndtRuther-Mehlis Arndt Ruther-Mehlis Weeber KüpferWeeberKüpfer
  • 3. The HfWU focus on demographic change and spatial mobility 45 40 Migration rates by age-groups 40 (per year, age of the head of the household) 35 30 25 19 20 15 12 10 10 5 4 3 3 5 0 20-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60-69 70-79 ab 80 alle JahrgängeArndtRuther-MehlisWeeber Weeber+Partner, Source: Sozio-Ökonomisches Panel 1996-2005Küpfer
  • 4. Demographic change and spatial mobility, four main research questions: 1. Come, Go, Stay Which populations groups? Where from and where to? 2. Who moves away? And why? What are the groups’ causes, motives, decision criteria? 3. Primary and secondary effects in the different areas? 4. What are the levers and strategies for influencing the changes and effects? What regional strategies are particularly relevant for rural and suburban areas?ArndtRuther-MehlisWeeberKüpfer
  • 5. Migration balances across age-groups and cities -496 75 and more -53 -203 70 – u. 75 -18 -392 65 – u. 70 -37 -385 60 – u. 65 -30 -229 55 – u. 60 -22 -139 50 – u. 55 -11 -203 45 – u. 50 -3 -325 40 – u. 45 -29 -519 35 – u. 40 -58 Stadt Stuttgart -243 30 – u. 35 -76 Stadt Ulm 1840 25 – u. 30 65 (565.950) 2297 21 – u. 25 399 (122.087) 768 20 – u. 21 167 711 18 – u. 20 165 75 15 – u. 18 5 -73 10 – u. 15 -9 -152 6 – u. 10 -28 -55 5 –u. 6 0 -410 1 – u. 5 -87 Weeber based -47 u. 1 -2 on Statistisches 2000 -1000 0 1000 2000 3000 300 -100 100 300 500 Landesamt, 11 75 and more 23 2010 1 70 – u. 75 2 0 65 – u. 70 -1 -4 60 – u. 65 0 -5 55 – u. 60 0 4 50 – u. 55 -1 4 45 – u. 50 0 0 40 – u. 45 6 -5 35 – u. 40 -1 18 30 – u. 35 2 Stadt Nagold -28 -22 25 – u. 30 -10 5 Stadt Beuren 21 – u. 25 (21.756) -5 0 20 – u. 21 -1 1 (3.641) 18 – u. 20 3 15 – u. 18 0 5 10 – u. 15 1 1 1 -3 6 – u. 10Arndt 5 –u. 6 1Ruther-Mehlis -1 1 0 1 – u. 5 0Weeber u. 1Küpfer -50 -30 -10 10 30 50 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40
  • 6. Brain Exchange and Demographic Change • Understanding the reasons, sources, future extent and impacts of regional migration on the demographic change needs knowledge about – the skill-composition of migratory flows – the duration of migration – interactions between skill-composition an duration of migration – inter-regional and inter-national migratory flows – patterns of commuting • Empirical identification problem lack of data on the semi-aggregated and micro level • Possible solutions – Estimation techniques – Existing micro dataArndt – Using existing / establishing own surveysRuther-Mehlis so far: certain groups SHARE, GSOEP, student and alumni dataWeeberKüpfer
  • 7. Stylized facts: Regions in a Region • Heterogeneity of – top-destination countries, – brain drain and – border effects when the skill composition is accounted for Source: Arndt,Arndt Christensen,Ruther-MehlisWeeber Gurka (2010)Küpfer
  • 8. Summary and Outlook • Demographic change affects rural and suburban areas differently! – Young people have to leave these areas for higher education – Simultaneously higher educated young people do not find an adequate job in rural areas and some suburban areas – Matching problems on the labor market • Follow Up – What are the driving forces behind these processes? – Interactions between age groups, skill-levels, duration and stickyness – Scope for regional development strategies regarding infrastructure and education?ArndtRuther-MehlisWeeberKüpfer
  • 9. ArndtRuther-MehlisWeeberKüpfer
  • 10. Change of age-groups 2010 to 2030 – federal state Baden-Württemberg population projection Statistisches Landesamtes 250000 Kinder Jugendl., Junge im Ältere im 200000 -219265 Junge Erwerbsalter, Erwerbsalter, 150000 Erw. Aufbauphase Konsolidierungsp. -263153 -142068 -600514 100000 50000 0 0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85-89 ab 90 -50000 -100000 -150000 -200000 Junge Alte Hochaltrige -250000 +499704 +354059ArndtRuther-MehlisWeeber Source: Weeber+Partner; Statistisches Landesamt Baden-WürttembergKüpfer