This document discusses regional impacts of demographic change in Germany. It summarizes a conference on the topic presented by professors from the HfWU University. Key topics discussed include patterns of migration by age group, reasons for migration between rural, suburban and urban areas, and the effects of an aging and shrinking population on different regions. Research questions focus on who migrates, why, and potential strategies for regional development in response to demographic change. Migration data from cities in Baden-Württemberg is presented and population projections show the region gaining older residents while losing younger ones.

1. Spatial Mobility and Demographic Change
Causes, Effects, Regional Development Strategies
Regional Impacts of Demographic Change
EDUPROF-meeting on April 14th & 15th in Groningen
Prof. Dr. Christian Arndt, Economics
Prof. Dr. Alfred Ruther-Mehlis, Urban Planning
Arndt
Ruther-Mehlis Rotraut Weeber, Urban Sociology, Real Estate
Prof. Dr.
Weeber Dr. Christian Küpfer, Landscape and Environmental Planning
Prof.
Küpfer

2. The HfWU University and the Research Team
HfWU – University of Economics and Environment,
Nürtingen/Geislingen
• Region of Stuttgart
• about 4000 students and 25 degree programmes
• main subjects
– Business and Economics,
– Environmental Sciences, e.g. Environmental Planning and Protection
– Urban Planning, Landscape Architecture, Agricultural Economics,
– Real Estate, Energy and Resource Management.
Arndt
Ruther-Mehlis Arndt Ruther-Mehlis Weeber Küpfer
Weeber
Küpfer

3. The HfWU focus on
demographic change and spatial mobility
45
40
Migration rates by age-groups
40
(per year, age of the head of the household)
35
30
25
19
20
15 12
10
10
5
4 3 3
5
0
20-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60-69 70-79 ab 80 alle
Jahrgänge
Arndt
Ruther-Mehlis
Weeber
Weeber+Partner, Source: Sozio-Ökonomisches Panel 1996-2005
Küpfer

4. Demographic change and spatial mobility,
four main research questions:
1. Come, Go, Stay
Which populations groups? Where from and where to?
2. Who moves away? And why?
What are the groups’ causes, motives, decision criteria?
3. Primary and secondary effects in the different areas?
4. What are the levers and strategies for influencing the changes and effects?
What regional strategies are particularly relevant for rural and suburban
areas?
Arndt
Ruther-Mehlis
Weeber
Küpfer

5. Migration balances across age-groups and cities
-496 75 and more -53
-203 70 – u. 75 -18
-392 65 – u. 70 -37
-385 60 – u. 65 -30
-229 55 – u. 60 -22
-139 50 – u. 55 -11
-203 45 – u. 50 -3
-325 40 – u. 45 -29
-519 35 – u. 40 -58
Stadt Stuttgart -243 30 – u. 35 -76 Stadt Ulm
1840 25 – u. 30 65
(565.950) 2297 21 – u. 25 399 (122.087)
768 20 – u. 21 167
711 18 – u. 20 165
75 15 – u. 18 5
-73 10 – u. 15 -9
-152 6 – u. 10 -28
-55 5 –u. 6 0
-410 1 – u. 5 -87 Weeber based
-47 u. 1 -2 on Statistisches
2000 -1000 0 1000 2000 3000 300 -100 100 300 500 Landesamt,
11 75 and more 23 2010
1 70 – u. 75 2
0 65 – u. 70 -1
-4 60 – u. 65 0
-5 55 – u. 60 0
4 50 – u. 55 -1
4 45 – u. 50 0
0 40 – u. 45 6
-5 35 – u. 40 -1
18 30 – u. 35 2
Stadt Nagold -28
-22 25 – u. 30
-10
5 Stadt Beuren
21 – u. 25
(21.756) -5
0 20 – u. 21
-1
1 (3.641)
18 – u. 20
3 15 – u. 18 0
5 10 – u. 15 1
1 1
-3 6 – u. 10
Arndt 5 –u. 6 1
Ruther-Mehlis -1 1
0 1 – u. 5
0
Weeber u. 1
Küpfer -50 -30 -10 10 30 50 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40

6. Brain Exchange
and Demographic Change
• Understanding the reasons, sources, future extent and impacts of
regional migration on the demographic change needs knowledge
about
– the skill-composition of migratory flows
– the duration of migration
– interactions between skill-composition an duration of migration
– inter-regional and inter-national migratory flows
– patterns of commuting
• Empirical identification problem
lack of data on the semi-aggregated and micro level
• Possible solutions
– Estimation techniques
– Existing micro data
Arndt
– Using existing / establishing own surveys
Ruther-Mehlis so far: certain groups SHARE, GSOEP, student and alumni data
Weeber
Küpfer

7. Stylized facts:
Regions in a Region
• Heterogeneity of
– top-destination countries,
– brain drain and
– border effects
when the skill composition is
accounted for
Source: Arndt,
Arndt
Christensen,
Ruther-Mehlis
Weeber Gurka (2010)
Küpfer

8. Summary and Outlook
• Demographic change affects rural and suburban areas differently!
– Young people have to leave these areas for higher education
– Simultaneously higher educated young people do not find an adequate job in rural
areas and some suburban areas
– Matching problems on the labor market
• Follow Up
– What are the driving forces behind these processes?
– Interactions between age groups, skill-levels, duration and stickyness
– Scope for regional development strategies regarding infrastructure and
education?
Arndt
Ruther-Mehlis
Weeber
Küpfer

9. Arndt
Ruther-Mehlis
Weeber
Küpfer

10. Change of age-groups 2010 to 2030 – federal state Baden-Württemberg
population projection Statistisches Landesamtes
250000
Kinder Jugendl., Junge im Ältere im
200000 -219265 Junge Erwerbsalter, Erwerbsalter,
150000 Erw. Aufbauphase Konsolidierungsp.
-263153 -142068 -600514
100000
50000
0
0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
85-89
ab 90
-50000
-100000
-150000
-200000
Junge Alte Hochaltrige
-250000 +499704 +354059
Arndt
Ruther-Mehlis
Weeber Source: Weeber+Partner; Statistisches Landesamt Baden-Württemberg
Küpfer