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Foodservice Solutions®
Steven Johnson - Grocerant Guru™
SJU Food Summit 2015
“Fresh” Thinking
in Food Marketing
October 13, 2015
Food Quality Never Takes a Step Backward
Exploring expanding points of fresh food
competition and opportunities.
Consumers Like Eating-Out when Eating-In
Grocerant Guru™
Steven Johnson
Grocerant Guru™
Foodservice Solutions®
Tacoma, WA
253.759.7869
www.FoodserviceSolutions.us
THE GROCERANT NICHE
Fresh Prepared
Ready-2-Eat Heat-N-Eat
“ITS ABOUT TIME”
Thinking About your Customers
Differently
©Foodservice Solutions®
Executive Insights
Value Retailers continue to
garner market share (Fresh
Format & Dollar stores
winning)
Grocery consolidation & trip
erosion continue
Rite Aide, CVS, Walgreens
customer expansion grabbing
“quick” trips
Restaurants sales of Take-Away
continues to rise
Start-up’s from Meal-Kit’s to
Delivery companies are well
funded.
Executive Insights
Time is the true commodity
Customer outcomes are more
important than products
Fresh food fast is the only
difference between profitable
differentiation & commodity
competition
Price = Transparency
A Danish Philosopher
“Life can only be
understood backwards;
but it must be lived
forwards.”
- Soren Kierkegaard
Battle for Share of Stomach
GrocerantGuru.com
Points of Distribution
Sources: Nielsen, NRA, Progressive Grocer Annual
Reports (various years)
Forced Fresh Looking Differently
Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, SNAP
Chain Restaurant YOY Customer Counts
Sources: Company SEC 10Ks, Piper Jeffray Cookbook,
Pacific Management Consulting Group
Restaurant Off Premise
Source: Pacific Management Consulting Group / Foodservice Solutions®
US Retail Sales Dollars
Buying More Grocerant vs. Fast Food
Source: Technomic, 2015
Buying more Grocerant Ready-2-Eat and
Heat-N-Eat than last year
Why More Grocerant
Why are you purchasing food service items
at retailers more often?
(select all that apply)
Sources: Technomic, 2015
Fresh First Traditional Supermarket last
Projected percent change in
store count, 2013 – 2018 (projected)
Sources: Willard Bishop
Grocery Discontinuity
Sources: Willard Bishop
Projected change in
market share,
2013-2018
(select all that apply)
Looking Ahead
Is Amazon providing instant gratification vs. your
impulse buy?
Amazon Marketing Power
“Time is the true commodity and only
Amazon really gets that”
Source: Lee Peterson, EVP Brand Strategy and
Design WD Partners
All Food Products are Commodities
Price, Value, Service, Equilibrium is resetting
Source: Foodservice Solutions®
Amazon Prime, a yearly subscription
service with 50 million consumers
Source: WSJ, WD Partners
It’s About Time
1940: Home Cooked 150 Minutes
2000: Average time spent inside
McDonalds was 11 minutes
Today: Home Cooked Meal In Less
than30 Minutes
74% of All QSR meals Drive-Thru
1 in 3 men spend 15 min or less a
day on food prep
Source: National Restaurant Association, Foodinsights.org
How much time to Consumer take to prepared Dinner each night?
It’s About Time
Source: How America Eats – The Hartman Group
It’s About Time
EVERYDAY
At Noon 83.7% Do not
know what’s for Dinner
At 4:00 PM 68.7% Still
Don’t know What’s For
Dinner?
Source: Foodservice Solutions / Walgreens
Michael Porter
“ Industry boundaries are
expanding, and they can expand
even more. We’re going to see a
combination of barriers to entry
going up and the opportunity for
disruption going up
simultaneously.”
Source: Michael Porter. FoodInsights.org, 2015
Looking Ahead
50% of Americans Over the Age of
18 are Single
Nearly 50% of all eating occasions
are alone
Only 31% of dinners were made
from scratch
Six in 10 dinners were planned
within an hour of eating
Source: US Census, Hartman Group
Price Matters
“Poor people must
save, rich people like
to”
ALDI believes that they are purveying a
universally exportable price message to
the world
Source: WSJ. FoodInsights.org, 2015
Price Matters But How Much?
The average cost of a restaurant meal per
person in 2014 was $6.96; the estimated
average cost for an in-home prepared meal
was $2.31
All the while the U.S. Census Bureau
announced foodservice spending exceed
grocery spending for the first time ever.
Note: It did not include spending at ‘big box club stores’
Taste came in first but Price came in second
at 68% in a 2015 IFIC poll. Quick service
restaurants represent 78% of total restaurant
industry traffic.
Source: The NPD Group, IFIC, US Census Data
Don’t Be Static... Evolve.
Consumers are Dynamic
not Static.
Brands must be as well.
Pizza Hut
Opened first store in 1958 by
1966 Pizza Hut had 145
restaurants serving pizza,
lasagna, salads, all walk in sit
down table service dining.
Source: Pizza Hut 2015
Pizza Hut
By 1968 Pizza Hut had 301
units open. 500 units open
by 1970 and 1,000 open by
1971 and Pizza Hut was the
largest Pizza Chain in the
world. All walk in restaurants
with table service.
Source: Pizza Hut 2015
Pizza Hut
By 1973 Pizza Hut had 2000
restaurants open. In 1977
they had 3,000 restaurants
open and things were
changing.
Pan Pizza was introduced.
Source: Pizza Hut 2015
Pizza Hut Time for Change
In 1983 boundaries were
coming down. Pizza Hut was
expanding this time
introducing delivery but in
Australia.
Source: Pizza Hut, 2015
Pizza Hut Kept Moving
By 1986 Pizza Hut had 5000
units with the conversion to
delivery only drove sales and
profits, reduced time and cost
to open new units and in
1988 6,000 units.
Source: Pizza Hut, 2015
Pizza Hut
Today 15,000 units with less
than 50 full service
sit down restaurants in
the world.
Source: Pizza Hut, 2015
Yum Brands
Out-Sourced: Amazon Why Not?
Evolving Pizza
Americans spend 37 billion a year on pizza
Households eating frozen pizza dropped between
2010 - 2014, and the percentage of households
that ate a lot of frozen pizza dropped 15%
About 1 in 8 Americans eats pizza any given
day
Pre-teens eat about two times the national
average
60 years old eat about half the national
average
More than ¼ boys between 6 and 19 eat
pizza every day
Girls between 6 and 19 eat more pizza than
any category of guys
Source: USDA, Packaged Facts
Things You Might Not Know
The number one new food product
launch in 2014 was Lunchables
(Ready-2-Eat), Uploaded with 87%
distribution and $143 Million in
Sales.
Fully 18% of Starbucks transactions
in stores are
done by Phone.
Source: 2015 Fare Conference, IRI Summit 2015
SNAP Status Quo
ONE QUESTION:
Compelled to buy to Want to Buy?
SNAP average transaction is $23
75% of SNAP participants have to spend
their own money to buy food
In 2005 , 25,628 participants in SNAP vs
46,537 in 2014
The SNAP shopper is moving from paper
coupons to digital and online
Source: USDA, IRI 2015 Summit
Price, Value, Service Equilibrium
Consumers are resetting the Price, Value, Service
Equilibrium.
Here is Foodservice Solutions® formula:
(Mobile Access + Digital Payment +Delivery) X (Price + Food Quality
+ Speed) = Value
Incremental Value:
Constantly Changing Menu (Seasonally / Sustainability with
Creditability).
Source: Foodservice Solutions®, 2014
Attribute
Outlet
#
1216
Parking
Lot
Food
Visual
Appeal
Smell
Oder
Aroma
Customers
Like
Me
Temperature
Taste
Restaurants
QSR, FC, C, FS, Fine
178 8.5% 7.1% 9.1% 9.5% 9.6%
C-Stores
7-Eleven, Sheetz, QC, Wawa,
Rutter’s etc.
369
7.8% 6.2% 8.8% 7.4% 9.5%
Grocery
Wal-Mart, Publix, Aldi WinCo,
Safeway, Whole Foods etc.
550 4.7% 5.1% 6.2% 7.5% 6.1%
Drug & Liquor
Pinkies, Duane Reade,
Rite-Aid, Walgreens etc.
48
6.8% 8.2% 8.4% 8.5% 8.8%
Non-Traditional
Nordstrom’s, Food Trucks,
Hello Fresh etc.
71
NA NA NA 9.6% 9.7%
Grocerant Scorecard
Grocerant Scorecard
Attribute
Outlet
#
1216
Price Delivery Catering Digital
Payment
In Store
POP
Restaurants
QSR, FC, C, FS, Fine
178
7.4% 9.4% 7.6% NA 9.5%
C-Stores
7-Eleven, Sheetz, QC,
Wawa, Rutter’s etc.
369 8.9% 5.4% 3.8% NA 7.9%
Grocery
Wal-Mart, Publix, Aldi
WinCo, Safeway, Whole
Foods etc.
550 6.4% 6.5% 4.4% NA 1.1%
Drug & Liquor
Pinkies, Duane Reade,
Rite-Aid, Walgreens etc.
48 9.0% 9.1% 6.64% NA 3.5%
Non-Traditional
Nordstrom’s, Food Trucks,
Hello Fresh etc.
71 NA 9.6% 2.7% NA 2.1%
Grocerant Scorecard
Attribute
Outlet
#
1216
Digital
Menu’s
Staff
Well
Groomed
Speed
at
Breakfast
Speed
at
Lunch
Speed
At
Dinner
Restaurants
QSR, FC, C, FS, Fine
178
8.5% 7.1% 9.1% 9.5% 9.6%
C-Stores
7-Eleven, Sheetz, QC,
Wawa, Rutter’s etc.
369 7.8% 6.2% 8.8% 7.4% 9.5%
Grocery
Wal-Mart, Publix, Aldi
WinCo, Safeway, Whole
Foods etc.
550 4.7% 5.1% 6.2% 7.5% 6.1%
Drug & Liquor
Pinkies, Duane Reade,
Rite-Aid, Walgreens etc.
48 6.8% 8.2% 8.4% 8.5% 8.8%
Non-Traditional
Nordstrom’s, Food
Trucks, Hello Fresh etc.
71 NA NA NA 9.6% 9.7%
Positioning Choice
Retailers have 4
options:
Different, Better,
Cheaper, or Not
Around Much Longer.
Source: Foodservice Solutions®
Portability Success Leaders
The Face of Fresh
Source: Willard Bishop, Technomic
Funding Food
In 2014 $2.36 billion was
raised to fund 264 Food
Start-Up’s.
Hello Fresh IPO Priced at
$2.9 Billion
Plated, Munchery, FoodPanda, Lish,
Peachd, SpoonRocket, Eat24, GrubHub,
Postmates
Source: Venture Capital Form, Food + Tech Connect
Eatzi’s – Niche Pioneer
Rutter’s – Steps to Success
MIX & MATCH LUNCH & DINNER
Pantry Busters
Source: NACS
SQUARE ONE
MARKETS
SIX ’O’ CLOCK
SCRAMBLE
Whole Foods Is Fresh Food
Safeway
Walgreens Café W Plus
Walgreens Fresh & Fast
Summary
Consumers take advantage of
options
Grocery channel shopping frequency
continues to decline
Value retailers posting penetration &
frequency gains
Everyone purchases in multiple
channels
Consumer trends can drive growth
Summary
RETAILERS
Competition is going after your
shoppers & their shopping trips
Invest dollars to re-invent yourselves!
Grocerant Fresh Format is on top of
key consumer trends
MANUFACTURERS
Capitalize on channel shopping
retailer diversity through expanded
distribution
If you don’t, a competitor will!
Summary
Price = Transparency
Time is the True Commodity
Customer Outcomes are more
Important than Products
Fresh Food Fast is the
Difference Between Profitable
Differentiation & Commodity
Competition
Grocerant Guru™
Steven Johnson
Grocerant Guru™
Foodservice Solutions®
Tacoma, WA
253.759.7869
www.FoodserviceSolutions.us
THE GROCERANT NICHE
Fresh Prepared
Ready-2-Eat Heat-N-Eat
“ITS ABOUT TIME”

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Grocerant Guru® Speaking at the Food Summit

  • 1. Foodservice Solutions® Steven Johnson - Grocerant Guru™ SJU Food Summit 2015 “Fresh” Thinking in Food Marketing October 13, 2015 Food Quality Never Takes a Step Backward Exploring expanding points of fresh food competition and opportunities. Consumers Like Eating-Out when Eating-In
  • 2. Grocerant Guru™ Steven Johnson Grocerant Guru™ Foodservice Solutions® Tacoma, WA 253.759.7869 www.FoodserviceSolutions.us THE GROCERANT NICHE Fresh Prepared Ready-2-Eat Heat-N-Eat “ITS ABOUT TIME” Thinking About your Customers Differently ©Foodservice Solutions®
  • 3. Executive Insights Value Retailers continue to garner market share (Fresh Format & Dollar stores winning) Grocery consolidation & trip erosion continue Rite Aide, CVS, Walgreens customer expansion grabbing “quick” trips Restaurants sales of Take-Away continues to rise Start-up’s from Meal-Kit’s to Delivery companies are well funded.
  • 4. Executive Insights Time is the true commodity Customer outcomes are more important than products Fresh food fast is the only difference between profitable differentiation & commodity competition Price = Transparency
  • 5. A Danish Philosopher “Life can only be understood backwards; but it must be lived forwards.” - Soren Kierkegaard
  • 6. Battle for Share of Stomach GrocerantGuru.com
  • 7. Points of Distribution Sources: Nielsen, NRA, Progressive Grocer Annual Reports (various years)
  • 8. Forced Fresh Looking Differently Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, SNAP
  • 9. Chain Restaurant YOY Customer Counts Sources: Company SEC 10Ks, Piper Jeffray Cookbook, Pacific Management Consulting Group
  • 10. Restaurant Off Premise Source: Pacific Management Consulting Group / Foodservice Solutions®
  • 11. US Retail Sales Dollars
  • 12. Buying More Grocerant vs. Fast Food Source: Technomic, 2015 Buying more Grocerant Ready-2-Eat and Heat-N-Eat than last year
  • 13. Why More Grocerant Why are you purchasing food service items at retailers more often? (select all that apply) Sources: Technomic, 2015
  • 14. Fresh First Traditional Supermarket last Projected percent change in store count, 2013 – 2018 (projected) Sources: Willard Bishop
  • 15. Grocery Discontinuity Sources: Willard Bishop Projected change in market share, 2013-2018 (select all that apply)
  • 16. Looking Ahead Is Amazon providing instant gratification vs. your impulse buy?
  • 17. Amazon Marketing Power “Time is the true commodity and only Amazon really gets that” Source: Lee Peterson, EVP Brand Strategy and Design WD Partners All Food Products are Commodities Price, Value, Service, Equilibrium is resetting Source: Foodservice Solutions® Amazon Prime, a yearly subscription service with 50 million consumers Source: WSJ, WD Partners
  • 18. It’s About Time 1940: Home Cooked 150 Minutes 2000: Average time spent inside McDonalds was 11 minutes Today: Home Cooked Meal In Less than30 Minutes 74% of All QSR meals Drive-Thru 1 in 3 men spend 15 min or less a day on food prep Source: National Restaurant Association, Foodinsights.org
  • 19. How much time to Consumer take to prepared Dinner each night? It’s About Time Source: How America Eats – The Hartman Group
  • 20. It’s About Time EVERYDAY At Noon 83.7% Do not know what’s for Dinner At 4:00 PM 68.7% Still Don’t know What’s For Dinner? Source: Foodservice Solutions / Walgreens
  • 21. Michael Porter “ Industry boundaries are expanding, and they can expand even more. We’re going to see a combination of barriers to entry going up and the opportunity for disruption going up simultaneously.” Source: Michael Porter. FoodInsights.org, 2015
  • 22. Looking Ahead 50% of Americans Over the Age of 18 are Single Nearly 50% of all eating occasions are alone Only 31% of dinners were made from scratch Six in 10 dinners were planned within an hour of eating Source: US Census, Hartman Group
  • 23. Price Matters “Poor people must save, rich people like to” ALDI believes that they are purveying a universally exportable price message to the world Source: WSJ. FoodInsights.org, 2015
  • 24. Price Matters But How Much? The average cost of a restaurant meal per person in 2014 was $6.96; the estimated average cost for an in-home prepared meal was $2.31 All the while the U.S. Census Bureau announced foodservice spending exceed grocery spending for the first time ever. Note: It did not include spending at ‘big box club stores’ Taste came in first but Price came in second at 68% in a 2015 IFIC poll. Quick service restaurants represent 78% of total restaurant industry traffic. Source: The NPD Group, IFIC, US Census Data
  • 25. Don’t Be Static... Evolve. Consumers are Dynamic not Static. Brands must be as well.
  • 26. Pizza Hut Opened first store in 1958 by 1966 Pizza Hut had 145 restaurants serving pizza, lasagna, salads, all walk in sit down table service dining. Source: Pizza Hut 2015
  • 27. Pizza Hut By 1968 Pizza Hut had 301 units open. 500 units open by 1970 and 1,000 open by 1971 and Pizza Hut was the largest Pizza Chain in the world. All walk in restaurants with table service. Source: Pizza Hut 2015
  • 28. Pizza Hut By 1973 Pizza Hut had 2000 restaurants open. In 1977 they had 3,000 restaurants open and things were changing. Pan Pizza was introduced. Source: Pizza Hut 2015
  • 29. Pizza Hut Time for Change In 1983 boundaries were coming down. Pizza Hut was expanding this time introducing delivery but in Australia. Source: Pizza Hut, 2015
  • 30. Pizza Hut Kept Moving By 1986 Pizza Hut had 5000 units with the conversion to delivery only drove sales and profits, reduced time and cost to open new units and in 1988 6,000 units. Source: Pizza Hut, 2015
  • 31. Pizza Hut Today 15,000 units with less than 50 full service sit down restaurants in the world. Source: Pizza Hut, 2015
  • 33. Evolving Pizza Americans spend 37 billion a year on pizza Households eating frozen pizza dropped between 2010 - 2014, and the percentage of households that ate a lot of frozen pizza dropped 15% About 1 in 8 Americans eats pizza any given day Pre-teens eat about two times the national average 60 years old eat about half the national average More than ¼ boys between 6 and 19 eat pizza every day Girls between 6 and 19 eat more pizza than any category of guys Source: USDA, Packaged Facts
  • 34. Things You Might Not Know The number one new food product launch in 2014 was Lunchables (Ready-2-Eat), Uploaded with 87% distribution and $143 Million in Sales. Fully 18% of Starbucks transactions in stores are done by Phone. Source: 2015 Fare Conference, IRI Summit 2015
  • 35. SNAP Status Quo ONE QUESTION: Compelled to buy to Want to Buy? SNAP average transaction is $23 75% of SNAP participants have to spend their own money to buy food In 2005 , 25,628 participants in SNAP vs 46,537 in 2014 The SNAP shopper is moving from paper coupons to digital and online Source: USDA, IRI 2015 Summit
  • 36. Price, Value, Service Equilibrium Consumers are resetting the Price, Value, Service Equilibrium. Here is Foodservice Solutions® formula: (Mobile Access + Digital Payment +Delivery) X (Price + Food Quality + Speed) = Value Incremental Value: Constantly Changing Menu (Seasonally / Sustainability with Creditability). Source: Foodservice Solutions®, 2014
  • 37. Attribute Outlet # 1216 Parking Lot Food Visual Appeal Smell Oder Aroma Customers Like Me Temperature Taste Restaurants QSR, FC, C, FS, Fine 178 8.5% 7.1% 9.1% 9.5% 9.6% C-Stores 7-Eleven, Sheetz, QC, Wawa, Rutter’s etc. 369 7.8% 6.2% 8.8% 7.4% 9.5% Grocery Wal-Mart, Publix, Aldi WinCo, Safeway, Whole Foods etc. 550 4.7% 5.1% 6.2% 7.5% 6.1% Drug & Liquor Pinkies, Duane Reade, Rite-Aid, Walgreens etc. 48 6.8% 8.2% 8.4% 8.5% 8.8% Non-Traditional Nordstrom’s, Food Trucks, Hello Fresh etc. 71 NA NA NA 9.6% 9.7% Grocerant Scorecard
  • 38. Grocerant Scorecard Attribute Outlet # 1216 Price Delivery Catering Digital Payment In Store POP Restaurants QSR, FC, C, FS, Fine 178 7.4% 9.4% 7.6% NA 9.5% C-Stores 7-Eleven, Sheetz, QC, Wawa, Rutter’s etc. 369 8.9% 5.4% 3.8% NA 7.9% Grocery Wal-Mart, Publix, Aldi WinCo, Safeway, Whole Foods etc. 550 6.4% 6.5% 4.4% NA 1.1% Drug & Liquor Pinkies, Duane Reade, Rite-Aid, Walgreens etc. 48 9.0% 9.1% 6.64% NA 3.5% Non-Traditional Nordstrom’s, Food Trucks, Hello Fresh etc. 71 NA 9.6% 2.7% NA 2.1%
  • 39. Grocerant Scorecard Attribute Outlet # 1216 Digital Menu’s Staff Well Groomed Speed at Breakfast Speed at Lunch Speed At Dinner Restaurants QSR, FC, C, FS, Fine 178 8.5% 7.1% 9.1% 9.5% 9.6% C-Stores 7-Eleven, Sheetz, QC, Wawa, Rutter’s etc. 369 7.8% 6.2% 8.8% 7.4% 9.5% Grocery Wal-Mart, Publix, Aldi WinCo, Safeway, Whole Foods etc. 550 4.7% 5.1% 6.2% 7.5% 6.1% Drug & Liquor Pinkies, Duane Reade, Rite-Aid, Walgreens etc. 48 6.8% 8.2% 8.4% 8.5% 8.8% Non-Traditional Nordstrom’s, Food Trucks, Hello Fresh etc. 71 NA NA NA 9.6% 9.7%
  • 40. Positioning Choice Retailers have 4 options: Different, Better, Cheaper, or Not Around Much Longer. Source: Foodservice Solutions®
  • 42. The Face of Fresh Source: Willard Bishop, Technomic
  • 43. Funding Food In 2014 $2.36 billion was raised to fund 264 Food Start-Up’s. Hello Fresh IPO Priced at $2.9 Billion Plated, Munchery, FoodPanda, Lish, Peachd, SpoonRocket, Eat24, GrubHub, Postmates Source: Venture Capital Form, Food + Tech Connect
  • 45. Rutter’s – Steps to Success MIX & MATCH LUNCH & DINNER
  • 46. Pantry Busters Source: NACS SQUARE ONE MARKETS SIX ’O’ CLOCK SCRAMBLE
  • 47. Whole Foods Is Fresh Food
  • 51. Summary Consumers take advantage of options Grocery channel shopping frequency continues to decline Value retailers posting penetration & frequency gains Everyone purchases in multiple channels Consumer trends can drive growth
  • 52. Summary RETAILERS Competition is going after your shoppers & their shopping trips Invest dollars to re-invent yourselves! Grocerant Fresh Format is on top of key consumer trends MANUFACTURERS Capitalize on channel shopping retailer diversity through expanded distribution If you don’t, a competitor will!
  • 53. Summary Price = Transparency Time is the True Commodity Customer Outcomes are more Important than Products Fresh Food Fast is the Difference Between Profitable Differentiation & Commodity Competition
  • 54. Grocerant Guru™ Steven Johnson Grocerant Guru™ Foodservice Solutions® Tacoma, WA 253.759.7869 www.FoodserviceSolutions.us THE GROCERANT NICHE Fresh Prepared Ready-2-Eat Heat-N-Eat “ITS ABOUT TIME”

Editor's Notes

  1. The grocerant niche continues to evolve. Ready-2-Eat and Heat-N-Eat fresh prepared food continues to drive change at the retail level driven by customer migration. Note: Food Quality Never takes a step back. It is important to remember that many food retails jumped on the HMP bandwagon in the mid-1980’s and early 1990’s only to miss the opportunity because they focused on coat and did not understand the customer, and/or foodservice and they had never been really in the Meals Business. Today many legacy grocers fail to understand the opportunity for day-part meals. Today, traditional grocery stores still aren’t in the meals business. More important thay do not understand the need set of the consumer. Food quality never takes a step backwards and Consumer are Eating-out while Eating-In. Think about Foodserivce Solutions The 65 Inch HDTV Syndrome.   A key point is that many food retailers jumped on the HMR bandwagon in the 1980’s only to miss the opportunity because they focused on costs and did not understanding the customer and/or foodservice.   Many legacy grocers fail to understand the opportunity for day-part meal opportunity solutions because they aren't really in the meals business.
  2. Looking A Customer Ahead The Grocerant Niche is “ Fresh Food Fast that means It’s About Time” It’s about thinking Your Customers First! www.FoodserviceSolutions.us
  3. Driven by increased demand and customer migration from cook from scratch to Ready-2-Eat and Heat-N-Eat fresh prepared food everyone from Soccer Mom’s to Senior Citizens are putting pressure on retailers for fresh. Consumers prefer Eating-Out while Eating-In. All retailers are in a fierce battle to garner a larger share of stomach.
  4. Eating-Out while Eating-In can be found at the intersection of the consumer, technology and Foodservice Solutions 5 P’s of Food Marketing Product, Packaging, Placement, Portability, Price that provide a simple but extremely powerful formula for driving sales successes. All the while retail food sales competition is expanding. Driving ever greater Mix and Match bundled meal options and new points of distribution for consumers.
  5. Are you Looking A Customer Ahead? Are you doing what you have always done and doing the same way? Why?
  6. U.S. consumers have a desire for variety which continues to grow. Simply put consumers eat everywhere. With variety comes discovery of new avenues of distribution, products, and packaging. These new Distribution channels for Ready-2-Eat and Heat-N-Eat fresh food continue to evolve. Back in the day Grocery stores needed only to be watchful of other Grocery retailers, but those days are long gone. Every meal can be a branded meal with added value. Today, Grocery retailers are facing huge competition from other retail channels including restaurants, Drug stores and Online Meal Kit companies.   Convenience stores have been the retailer which have been the most aggressive expanding fresh food offerings, locations and messaging. C-stores have re-invented themselves putting increased pressure on restaurants, grocery stores.   All fresh food retailers must re-evaluate store formats trying not to get locked into ‘footprint malaise’ or a merchandising strategy of a bygone era. Even more important manufacturers need to re-think how they package and ship products. Simply changing the label to read NEW does not mean fresh. How can manufactures recreate a branded product with identity as a fresh product? Retailers must realize that no longer is competition limited within your specific channel. Manufacturers that ignore alternative fresh channels will likely find themselves at a competitive disadvantage.   Consumers buy and consumer food from every sector. Are you getting your share? Where else can you sell your food? Are you selling dinner meal kit solutions? Do you have Ready-2-Eat and Heat-N-Eat that can complement a family dinner as a meal component? Why Not? GrocerantGuru.com
  7. 1 Million Restaurants, 37,000ish Grocery ? The Paradox of Choice? How many choices do they have before they choose your brand? The traditional SNAP qualifying paradigm. Are Grocery retailers doing all that they can to take advantage of their ability to drive immediate trips through more conveniently oriented store layouts or in merchandising of Ready-2-Eat and Heat-N-Eat fresh prepared food? How can Mix and Match meal bundling drive both traffic and loyalty? O’ and by the way that is 25+ restaurants for every 1 grocery store? Kinda makes one wonder about the logic of the “Frozen Food Court” in Grocery Stores?  
  8. The SNAP Program is diminishing in value, aka the reduced government subsidy to legacy CPG food retailers will be disruptive. McDonalds, Wendy’s, Taco Bell and others are Aspirational Brands for those on SNAP. Can your C-store or Grocery stores out brand McDonald’s in the Ready-2-Eat and Heat-N-Eat Grocerant fresh prepared food space? The Legacy SNAP qualifying paradigm is evolving is your brand evolving to maintain those customers?
  9. Guess what? Restaurants are not garnering all of your customers? So who is? Amazon, Hello Fresh, Plated Munchery? Overall: restaurant sales overall remain lower than pre recession and many brands are in deep "reactionary" footing; creating an opportunity for manufactures and marketers. Driven by increased demand and customer migration from cook from scratch too Ready-2-Eat and Heat-N-Eat fresh prepared food everyone from Soccer Mom’s to Senior Citizens are putting pressure on retailers for fresh. All retailers are in a fierce battle to garner a larger share of stomach.
  10. Do you think you know all about your competitors while you are in a battel for share of stomach? It’s all about time for the consumer. This chart shows total sales from the Chain restaurant sector for Take-Out , Take-Away, fresh food for immediate consumption, 57.8% of all chain food sold! That’s a big number!
  11. Now remember that 57.8% number. Now lets look at Dollars spent grocery vs restaurants and bars? Let me ask you, after reviewing the last two slides do consumers want to go home and cook from scratch? Do you know what the check average is at McDonalds, KFC, Taco Bell, or Wendy’s? Choice is fresh fast food. Legacy Grocery stores have the ability to leverage mix and match meal component bundling utilizing the deli as a catalyst. Nielsen found that For the vast majority of shopping trips, consumers are too busy to spend much time shopping, as almost 70% of all-outlet trips are small or immediate need trips.
  12. Now we can see from this chart represents relative intent when consumers are not buying Ready-2-Eat and Heat-N-Eat Fresh Fast Food, increasingly they are opting for Heat-N-Eat fresh prepared food. Why it saves time. There are now more points of fresh food distribution with a greater variety of quality offering at competitive prices. Nielsen found that For the vast majority of shopping trips, consumers are too busy to spend much time shopping, as almost 70% of all-outlet trips are small or immediate need trips. Amazon can Delivery those items in 15 cities today in under an hour. Can you?
  13. Mix & Match meal component bundling = price, convenience ad freshness. Think Foodservice Solutions FIVE P’s of Food Marketing Price, Portability, Packaging, Product, Placement. Retailers can leverage mix and match bundling to drive sales frequency think AMAZON Prime.
  14. Ok we are back to square one. Are you doing what you have always been doing and doing it pretty much the same way? Why? Remember the Paradox of choice? Your competitors are evolving faster than ever before. Are you Looking A Customer Ahead? Or are you looking more like yesterday than tomorrow?
  15. No matter how you look at it change is underway. We will look at Restaurant change is just a minute as success clues can be found by companies that at times are even forced to change.
  16. Are you still relying on customers standing in line buying high margin items on impulse? Do category managers drive sales or do they document sales? Do you have a food merchant on your team? Do you have a merchant on your team?
  17. Without a merchant or a food merchant the only true commodity is time. Restaurants save consumers the time to plan a meal, buy ingredients, cook the meal and clean up? How is your company saving consumers time? After Time Everything else is a Commodity.
  18. Tracking how much time it took to prepare a meal is nothing new. What is new is the number of start-up food space companies that think time is the critical point of differentiation for them within the retail food space.
  19. Let’s look back again. 39% spend less than 30 minutes, cooking dinner, 68% spend less than 40 minutes, and 84% less than 50 minutes per night. Time is the commodity valued most. Fresh is next!
  20. Clearly the United States is not filled with dinner planners. We have been tracking these numbers since 1997 and they have moved, however today there are fewer planners than ever before. Interestingly what asked if they worry about what’s for dinner 90% say NO. Why Choice its not a problem to obtain a dinner solutions that everyone in the family will buy into.
  21. People not technology put limits companies. The mind-set of start-Up’s today is disruption. The mind-set in many legacy chain restaurants, chain grocery stores is surviving what the competition throws at them and the next quarterly report. Is your Mind-set dynamic or static are your goals looking like yesterday or next year?
  22. Just how important are legacy metrics? Do you still report “basket size or check average” why? When the customer evolves your metrics must evolve. Ready-2-Eat and Heat-N-Eat fresh prepared food drives customer frequency? Is customer frequency important to your brand?
  23. Price helped drive the success of Walmart at one time. They are now no longer the low price leader in the minds-eye of the consumer. Aldi is the fastest growing grocery retailer in the US. Why they rely on a different sent of metric’s including price and limited assortment all bundled to save the consumer Time and Money. Time is the treu commodity the price and food quality are the next two attributes valued the most.
  24. Remember the percent of off premise food sold at all chain restaurants it is 57.8%. All that said and done, let’s review Time is the most valued commodity, and Taste and price are attributes.
  25. Are you an O’but that is Starbucks executive? Starbucks customer of today was once your customer? Did you every wonder Why? For the first 20 years Howard proclaimed not food, no food ever! Starbucks logo evolved with the brand from black and white to borderless, from coffee, too book’s, music, movies food, meals, and now liquor. I bet many of you in here sell Starbucks products in your retail outlet don’t you. O’but that’s Starbucks and you are not! Why? Amazon is selling Amazon branded Beer in C-stores. Where are you selling your branded products?
  26. The Foundation of success and change was cultivated from 1958 and continues today.
  27. In 1971 Pizza Hut was the largest Pizza Chain in the World, know for the red roof, inside dining, many units were testing salad bars and yes lots of Pizza
  28. The undercurrents of change were brewing, baking, and balking on the streets of the US during the late 60’s and early 70’s. An upstart called Domino’s pizza was scoffed at by industry insiders, Wall Street, Pizza Hut and simply dismissed as “delivery only” . That’s not who Pizza Hut was. Pizza Hut was a restaurant, proud, and the largest Pizza chain in the world.
  29. However, when the world changed, Pizza Hut did not get stuck in ‘footprint malaise’. Pizza Hut stepped and evolved once again.
  30. By 1988 the ‘Red Roof’s” were beginning to become hard to find.
  31. Today, there are less than 50 Red Roofs left. Pizza Hut continues to evolve around the world and in the US.
  32. Note Pizza Hut is part of Yum Brands. What’s next for Pizza Hut? Will they invest become the first restaurant to invest $1 Billion in autonomous driving cars? Will they out-source delivery to Amazon Drones? Will they invest in a Drone manufacture? Success does leave clues and I suggest you keep an eye on Pizza Hut.
  33. Demographics matter for the FIRST TIME EVER Girls eat more pizza than Boys! That’s big that’s change! Watch this space. The power of Pizza today continues to drive change.
  34. Both Hand Held not odd or uncommon it all about Fresh and Fast.
  35. As the minimum wage continue to be driven up around the country those eligible will decline as will the dollars. Where will those customers migrate too? Do you think they want to cook from scratch? Do they want to do dishes every night? The Share of Stomach is about to evolve once again.
  36. Enough said. The Price, Value, Service Equilibrium has evolved to a new platform. Fresh Fast, Hand Held, Meals or meal components with Portability.
  37. Grocery stores lag, Non traditional Wins
  38. Grocery stores lag, Restaurants win. Digital Payment speeds up service aka SAVES TIME. Fresh and Fast Pop? In Grocery Ha
  39. This chart is important it is all about LABOR and how many people are need to get the job done. Foodservice Solutions® industry leading labor metrics tool evaluate 10 attributes that drive success in each category breakfast, lunch, and dinner.
  40. Where are you headed? Are you Different? Are you Better? Are you Cheaper? If your are not growing you are dying? Think about your retail food sector then think about your brand. Are you growing points of distribution? Sales, Year over Year Customer Counts? If not? Why
  41. Fresh Food Fast Portability is key! Is Packaging the new branding power vehicle? Sheetz, Wegmans, Freshii, Green Zebra Grocery, Wawa, Eataly, The Grocerant Guru™ thinks so.
  42. While Price equals transparency. Fresh has the halo of ‘better for you’ that is a key driver of customer adoption.
  43. None of these companies is thinking about survival or the next quarters conference call. They all are thinking about being PANTY BUSTERS, FOOD INDUSTY DISRUPTORS. They are well funded, garnering trial, and many garnering adoption. Now add 3 billion that Aldi plans to spend over the next three years and 4 billion Lidl is planning on investing in the US and I ask will $8.36 billion change the face of food retail in the US? I don’t know but I do know its one Hell of a start and the largest amount ever targeting one industry sector in a very short time frame. Are you still planning to do the same thing you have always done?
  44. My icon, industry mentor and no Grocerant niche presentation would be complete without mentioning him. Years ago when we worked together at Fuddruckers he explained why he was selling fresh produce inside the restaurant. While that may have been to early for restaurant customer adoption at Fuddruckers and other restaurants it was not a few years later at Eatzi’s. Where he is sells produce differently. Did I say that Eatzi’s was where I coined the term Grocerant?
  45. Sales success meals giving the customers what they want and how they want it. Look A Like is not a bad thing.
  46. Meal Kit’s are Pantry Busters and Training wheels for millennials. What’s next in this space Meal Kits for the Middle!
  47. Ready-2-Eat Fresh Food is the Halo that can sustain sales. Restaurants in grocery stores while interesting are not proving the ‘lift’ once desired. That is simply because they did not understand the Sales per square food for chain restaurants is within 10% of that of traditional grocery stores? So do what you do best simply do it better!
  48. This type of ad works but only if it is vertically integrated and consistently incorporated.
  49. In 1927-1935 Walgreens was the largest restaurant chain in the United States. Walgreens ‘counters’ were friendly, fast and famous. Walgreens has a history of success selling fresh food.
  50. Walgreens understands change, is evolving and garnering customer adopting.
  51. Now it time to step back and summarize what this information means and the impact it has on how retailers and manufacturers go to market in the coming years.   We have seen, consumers have a wide array of channel options and they clearly take advantage of their options and value time over price and taste. The Traditional Grocery channel continues to be impacted by declines in shopping frequency. The customer is dynamic not static and when the customer moves retails must move with them. The demographics and shopping behavior of channel shoppers is inclusive across all channels. Successful retailers will be those who use this information to target growth via advertising, merchandising and promotional activities. Successful manufacturers will be those who help their retailer customers and themselves new branded channel-specific targeting of fresh food focused products and promotions.
  52. First, recognize that alternative channel retailers specifically internet companies are coming after your share of stomach /customers and their shopping dollars that means grocery, C-store and restaurants all retailers must be prepared for retailoring tomorrow not yesterday. You must invest dollars to just like Pizza Hut you must re-invent yourselves and give consumers a reason to come back to you or to attract new customers into your stores. You must strive for contemporized relevance; by staying on top of consumer trends to drive top-line growth. Never forget your current customer are your best customers and are very important. They account for the lion’s share of any retailer dollars and replacing the most loyal customer is not an inexpensive proposition.  
  53. Consumers are informed today not fooled, focus your efforts away from category managers placing more focus on retail food merchants, merchandising, and digital messaging. Remember Price = Transparency. Time is the true commodity Think about what customer do, how they eat, where they eat not what you do or what you have done. Successful customer outcomes are a result of understanding how consumers are evolving. Grocerant niche Ready-2-Eat and Heat-N-Eat fresh food fast continues to drive top line growth and bottom line profits in every sector of food retailing today. It is the difference between profitable differentiation and commodity competition  
  54. Remember Lead, Follow or Painfully Fade Away, Thank you.