According to the GBTA BTI™ Outlook - United States 2013 Q1, a report from the Global Business Travel Association sponsored by Visa, Inc., U.S. business travel is now expected to rise 5.1% in 2013 to $268.5 billion, which is an upgrade from the 4.6% growth to $266.7 billion that GBTA predicted last quarter and a substantial increase from 1.8% growth in 2012. The full report is available for purchase for non-members and at no cost for GBTA members. To learn more about the Global Business Travel Association please visit www.gbta.org.

1. 2013 Q1
GBTA BTI™ Outlook – United States
Prospects for Domestic & International Outbound Business Travel 2013-2014
2012 Q2
2013 Q1

2. 1111
GBTA BTI™ OUTLOOK – UNITED STATES
2013 Q1
© April 2013 GBTA and its affiliates. All rights reserved. Members may copy this publication in its entirety for
internal company use.
The biggest risk to the forecast remains in the hands of policy makers in the U.S. and Europe. For the
moment, European policymakers have stabilized the debt crisis and even provided some breathing space for
individual countries to pursue economic growth. Meanwhile in the U.S., the Sequester has mandated spending cuts
across the federal government totaling $85 billion, with $1 trillion more scheduled over the next ten years.
Coupled with current tax rates and economic growth projections, this will not be enough to reverse the long-term
deficit/debt cycle, however.
The CBO projects that with current laws, we will see an $854 billion deficit this fiscal year, the first sub-
$1trillion figure in five years. With an aging population, deficit and debt levels will eventually begin to rise again,
however, resulting in debt-to-GDP ratio that grows from 76% in FY2013 to 77% by 2023. The bottom line is that
Congress and the President still have much work to do. Depending upon how this all unfolds in the months and
years ahead, the economic impacts could be profound. Essentially, policy makers will struggle with the trade-off
between short-term growth and longer-term deficit/debt progress.
U.S. Economic Drivers of Business Travel: Latest Performance
Indicator
Relationship with
Biz Travel
Latest Value
Expected
for 2013
Progress
Versus
Last Qtr
Real GDP
(Yr/Yr%)
Positive –rising tide
lifts all boats
+1.6%
(2012 Q4)
+1.9% Worse
Corporate
Profits Before
Tax
Positive financial &
sentiment indicator +5.0%
(2012Q4)
+5.3%
Slightly
Worse
Job Growth
(monthly
nonfarm
payroll gain)
Positive -more jobs
indicates greater
confidence, rising
incomes, and more
travelers
+88,000
(Mar’13)
+189,000/
Monthly Avg Better
Unemployment
Rate
Negative economic
& sentiment
indicator
7.6%
(Mar ’13)
7.6%
Slightly
Better
Trade
Weighted
Dollar index
1973=100
Positive for
international
outbound trip
prices, Negative for
export growth
73.4
(2012Q4) 76.0
Slightly
Better
Oil Prices
(Brent Crude)
Negative for prices
& spending
$116.46/bbl
(Feb ‘13)
$114.50/bbl Worse
Real Exports
Positive for Int’l
Outbound
+1.4%
(2012Q4)
6.6%
Slightly
Worse
CPI for Air
Fare
Negative for travel
prices
3.8%
(Jan ’13)
2.8%
Slightly
Worse
ISM Sentiment
Index (PMI)
Positive for travel &
hiring
54.2
(Feb ’13)
58.8
Much
Better

3. 1515
GBTA BTI™ OUTLOOK – UNITED STATES
2013 Q1
© April 2013 GBTA and its affiliates. All rights reserved. Members may copy this publication in its entirety for
internal company use.
Group Meeting & Convention vs. Transient Business Travel
Transient business travel volume fell -1.9% in 2012. The decline was the result of conservative corporate
spending given a weak global economy and uncertainty surrounding U.S. fiscal policy. We expect transient travel
to continue to face headwinds through the first half of 2013. Transient travel should pick up steam later in the year
and perform well into 2014. We expect total transient trip volume to fall -1.3% in 2013 before rebounding 1.4% in
2014. Spending on transient business travel will expand 4.5% and 5.3% in 2013 and 2014, respectively.
Group travel volume is projected to fall -1.1% in 2013 before rising 2.1% in 2014. We expect group to perform
better than transient once the economic recovery picks up steam. Group has been sluggish over the last couple
years as organizations have been reluctant to invest in meetings and events in an uncertain economic environment.
In fact, group meeting trip volume will fall for the third straight year in 2013. Spending will be bolstered by higher
travel prices and will advance 6.0% and 6.9%, respectively, in 2013 and 2014.
International Outbound Business Travel
The growth in International Outbound (IOB) business travel saw a sharp decline last quarter. This decline, the
result of a significant drop in trade activity and the aforementioned decline in confidence, is the largest annual
decline in IOB business trips since 2009 Q4. Growth will turn positive again this quarter, however, and will pick up
steam over the forecast horizon. We project IOB volume will advance 1.6% in 2013 while spending will grow
4.2%. We expect fewer downside risks and more robust global growth to help boost IOB business travel in 2014.
Total trip volume will advance 7.8% and total spending will get back to double-digit growth, hitting 13.2%.