At CollegeFootballWinning.com, we pride ourselves on utilizing both college football betting data and on-field performance data to make our college football picks.

1. College Football Picks 2014 - Week 1
At CollegeFootballWinning.com, we pride ourselves on utilizing both college football betting data and
on-field performance data to make our college football picks. Week 1 of 2014 had 85 college football
games on which there were posted betting lines. This article serves as a summary of the college football
betting data associated with those first 85 games of the college football season. The reader should
understand that the breakeven point in standard college football betting (which requires the bettor to
wager $110 for every $100 in desired winnings) is 52.38%. Any cited percentage greater than 52.38%
should be considered winning to the NCAA football bettor, while any percentage less than 52.38%
should be considered losing.
Favorites and Underdogs Against-the-Spread (ATS)
In Week 1 of the college football season, the favorite beat the spread 42 times, while the underdog beat
the spread 42 times. One game “pushed’ (tied). In total, favorites beat the spread 50% of the time
(excluding the push). Prohibitive college football favorites, here defined as teams favored by at least 21
points (three touchdowns), beat the spread 20 times, lost 17 of those games, and pushed once ATS. In
total, prohibitive favorites beat the spread 54.05% of the time (again, excluding the push). Slight
college football favorites, here defined as teams favored by seven points (a single touchdown) or less,
beat the spread six times, but lost in nine of those matchups ATS. In total, slight favorites beat the
spread just 40% of the time.
Public Betting
Tracking the ATS results of how the public bets can be revealing. Conventional sports betting wisdom
suggests that betting against the public is profitable. That is precisely what we examine in this section.
In Week 1 of the college football season, teams that had a majority of the public betting on their side
beat the spread 43 times, lost 41 of those games, and pushed once ATS. In total, the public was correct
51.19% of the time (excluding the push). Sometimes, however, a simple majority can be misleading.
Teams that had at least 60% of the public betting on their side beat the spread 33 times, lost 32 times,
and pushed once. In total, 60% majority sides beat the spread 50.77% of the time. In extreme public
betting cases, here defined as teams receiving at least 70% of the public betting, those extremely
“popular” sides beat the spread 22 times and lost 21 times. The extreme public betting side beat the
spread 51.16% of the time.
Final Analysis: Week 1 Against-the-Spread
Analyzing the Week 1 college football betting data reveals very few profitable tendencies for any
sports bettors’ NCAA football picks. The only really profitable metric worth noting is in the category
of slight favorites. Betting the underdog in those college football matchups would have resulted in
beating the spread at the profitable rate of 60%.