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DAILY I FOREX REPORT 18TH FEBRUARY 2013WWW.EPICRESEARCH.CO +91 9752199966
HEADLINES Forex: EUR/USD Strength Shaken By EZ GDP, USD/JPY And EUR/JPY Slip EURUSD- Trading the U. of Michigan Confidence Survey TRADING TIPS Pound Sets A New 6-Month Low On Disappointing SELL EURUSD Retail Start To The New Year BELOW 1.3311 tgs 1.3297/1.3283 sl G20 Unlikely to Break New Ground 1.3331 on Currency Policy G20 Meeting Unlikely to Break New Ground on FX Intervention Policy SELL USDJPY BELOW Euro May Recover if Weekly LTRO Repayment Exceeds Recent Trends 92.22 tgt Yen Advanced in Asia as Stocks Fell, Muto Tipped for Top Spot at BOJ 92.08/91.94 SL 92.42 A quiet economic calendar in European trading hours puts the spotlight on the start of meeting of G20 finance ministers and central bank governors in Moscow. While the recent focus on so-called SELL GBPUSD “currency wars” has peaked on-lookers’ interest, the sit-down is likely to disappoint in terms of the ambition BELOW 1.5461 tgt of its final outcome. Although policymakers are sure to offer plenty of lip-service to the importance of 1.5447/1.5433 SL exchange rate flexibility, nothing concrete is likely to emerge as usual. 1.5481WWW.EPICRESEARCH.CO +91 9752199966
Date Time Currency Event Importance Actual Forecast Previous Notes Mon AUD Home Loans 00:30 Medium -1.5% 0.0% -0.7%Feb 11 (DEC) AUD Value of Loans 00:30 Low -2.7% 0.5% (MoM) (DEC) AUD Investment 00:30 Low -2.4% -3.2% Lending (DEC) EUR Euro-Area 13:30 Finance Ministers Meet High in Brussels NZD NZ Card 21:45 Medium 0.4% Spending (MoM) (JAN) NZD NZ Card 21:45 Spending - Retail Medium 0.3% 0.3% (MoM) (JAN) JPY Japan Money 23:50 Low 2.3% 2.2% Stock M3 (YoY) (JAN) JPY Japan Money 23:50 Stock M2+CD (YoY) Low 2.6% 2.6% (JAN) EUR German TueFeb 12 Wholesale Price Index Low 3.2% (YoY) (JAN) EUR German Wholesale Price Index Low 0.0% (MoM) (JAN) GBP RICS House Price 00:01 Medium 1% 0.0% Balance (JAN) AUD NAB Business 00:30 Medium 3 Confidence (JAN) AUD RBA Credit Card 00:30 Low $A21.8B Purchases (DEC) AUD RBA Credit Card 00:30 Low $A49.5B Balances (DEC) AUD NAB Business 00:30 Low -4 Conditions (JAN) JPY Machine Tool 06:00 Medium -27.5% Orders (YoY) (JAN P) CHF Consumer Price 08:15 Medium -0.3% -0.4% Index (YoY) (JAN) CHF CPI - EU 08:15 Harmonised (YoY) Medium -0.3% (JAN) CHF Consumer Price 08:15 Low -0.3% -0.2% Index (MoM) (JAN) CHF CPI - EU 08:15 Harmonised (MoM) Low 0.1% (JAN) GBP Core Consumer 09:30 Price Index (YoY) High 2.4% 2.4% (JAN)
GBP Consumer Price09:30 High 2.7% 2.7% Index (YoY) (JAN) GBP Retail Price Index09:30 Medium 3.2% 3.1% (YoY) (JAN) GBP Producer Price09:30 Index Output n.s.a. Medium 2.0% 2.2% (YoY) (JAN) GBP Producer Price09:30 Index Output Core Medium 1.4% 1.5% n.s.a. (YoY) (JAN) GBP Consumer Price09:30 Medium -0.5% 0.5% Index (MoM) (JAN) GBP Producer Price09:30 Index Output n.s.a. Low 0.2% -0.1% (MoM) (JAN) GBP Producer Price09:30 Index Output Core Low 0.1% 0.0% n.s.a. (MoM) (JAN) GBP Producer Price09:30 Index Input n.s.a. (YoY) Low 1.0% 0.3% (JAN) GBP Producer Price09:30 Index Input n.s.a. Low 0.8% -0.2% (MoM) (JAN) GBP DCLG UK House09:30 Low 2.0% 2.1% Prices (YoY) (DEC) GBP Retail Price Index09:30 Low -0.5% 0.5% (MoM) (JAN) GBP Retail Price Index09:30 Ex Mort Int.Payments Low 3.1% 3.0% (YoY) (JAN) GBP Retail Price Index09:30 Low 245.6 246.8 (JAN) USD Mortgage12:00 Low 7.4% Delinquencies (4Q) USD MBA Mortgage12:00 Low 4.1% Foreclosures (4Q) USD NFIB Small12:30 Business Optimism Low 89 88 (JAN) USD JOLTs Job15:00 Low 3676 Openings (DEC) USD Feds George16:30 Speaks on the Low Economy in Nebraska USD Monthly Budget19:00 Medium -$2.00B -$27.41B Statement (JAN) AUD Westpac23:30 Consumer Confidence Medium 0.6% (FEB) AUD Westpac23:30 Consumer Confidence Low 100.6 Index (FEB) JPY Tertiary Industry23:50 Medium 0.7% -0.3% Index (MoM) (DEC)
JPY Domestic 23:50 Corporate Goods Price Low -0.3% -0.6% Index (YoY) (JAN) JPY Domestic 23:50 Corporate Goods Price Low 0.2% 0.3% Index (MoM) (JAN) USD Feds Plosser WedFeb 13 00:30 Speaks on Economic Low Outlook in Stanford USD Feds Lacker 00:30 Speaks on Economics Low in Lancaster CHF Producer & Import 08:15 Low 1.0% 1.0% Prices (YoY) (JAN) CHF Producer & Import 08:15 Low 0.0% 0.1% Prices (MoM) (JAN) EUR Euro-Zone 10:00 Industrial Production Medium -2.4% -3.7% w.d.a. (YoY) (DEC) EUR Euro-Zone 10:00 Industrial Production Low 0.2% -0.3% s.a. (MoM) (DEC) GBP Bank of England 10:30 High Inflation Report USD MBA Mortgage 12:00 Low Applications (FEB 8) USD Advance Retail 13:30 High 0.1% 0.5% Sales (JAN) USD Retail Sales Less 13:30 Medium 0.1% 0.3% Autos (JAN) USD Retail Sales Ex 13:30 Low 0.4% 0.6% Auto & Gas (JAN) USD Retail Sales 13:30 Low 0.2% 0.6% "Control Group" (JAN) USD Import Price Index 13:30 Low -1.5% (YoY) (JAN) USD Import Price Index 13:30 Low 0.8% -0.1% (MoM) (JAN) USD Business 15:00 Medium 0.3% 0.3% Inventories (DEC) USD DOE U.S. 15:30 Gasoline Inventories Low (FEB 8) USD DOE U.S. 15:30 Distillate Inventory Low (FEB 8) USD DOE U.S. Crude 15:30 Low Oil Inventories (FEB 8) USD DOE Cushing OK 15:30 Crude Inventory (FEB Low 8) USD Feds Bullard to Speak on Economy at 16:10 Low Arkansas State University
NZD Business NZ Performance of 21:30 Medium 50.1 Manufacturing Index (JAN) NZD Food Prices 21:45 Low -0.2% (MoM) (JAN) JPY Nominal Gross 23:50 Domestic Product High 0.0% -0.9% (QoQ) (4Q P) JPY Gross Domestic 23:50 High 0.1% -0.9% Product (QoQ) (4Q P) JPY Gross Domestic 23:50 Product Annualized High 0.4% -3.5% (4Q P) JPY Gross Domestic 23:50 Product Deflator (YoY) Low -0.5% -0.8% (4Q P) Thu JPY Bank of JapanFeb 14 High -0.2% 0.10% Rate Decision (FEB 14) CNY Actual FDI (YoY) Medium -0.2% -4.5% (JAN) AUD Consumer 00:00 Inflation Expectation Medium 2.0% (FEB) NZD ANZ Consumer 00:00 Confidence (MoM) Low 3.1% (FEB) NZD ANZ Consumer 00:00 Confidence Index Low 118.3 (FEB) JPY Tokyo 04:00 Condominium Sales Low -3.0% (YoY) (JAN) EUR French Gross 06:30 Domestic Product Medium 0.5% 0.0% (YoY) (4Q P) EUR French Gross 06:30 Domestic Product Low -0.5% 0.1% (QoQ) (4Q P) EUR German Gross 07:00 Domestic Product High 0.9% w.d.a. (YoY) (4Q P) EUR German Gross 07:00 Domestic Product High 0.4% n.s.a. (YoY) (4Q P) EUR German Gross 07:00 Domestic Product s.a. Medium 0.2% 0.2% (QoQ) (4Q P) EUR ECB Publishes 09:00 High Monthly Report EUR Italian Gross Domestic Product s.a. 09:00 Medium -2.4% and w.d.a. (YoY) (4Q P) EUR Italian Gross Domestic Product s.a. 09:00 Low -0.2% and w.d.a. (QoQ) (4Q P)
EUR Euro-Zone Gross 10:00 Domestic Product s.a. High -0.6% (YoY) (4Q A) EUR Euro-Zone Gross 10:00 Domestic Product s.a. Medium -0.1% (QoQ) (4Q A) USD Initial Jobless 13:30 Medium 360K 366K Claims (FEB 10) USD Continuing Claims 13:30 Low 3200K 3224K (FEB 3) USD EIA Natural Gas 15:30 Storage Change (FEB Low -118 8) NZD Retail Sales Ex 21:45 Medium -0.4% Inflation (QoQ) (4Q) JPY Japan Buying 23:50 Foreign Stocks (Yen) Low (FEB 8) JPY Japan Buying 23:50 Foreign Bonds (Yen) Low (FEB 8) JPY Foreign Buying 23:50 Japan Stocks (Yen) Low ¥419.5B (FEB 8) JPY Foreign Buying 23:50 Japan Bonds (Yen) Low (FEB 8) Fri USD Revisions of LowFeb 15 Producer Price Index CNY MNI February 01:35 Flash Business Low Sentiment Indicator NZD Non Resident 02:00 Low 64.0% Bond Holdings (JAN) JPY Industrial 04:30 Production (YoY) (DEC Medium -7.8% F) (DEC F) JPY Industrial 04:30 Production (MoM) Low 2.5% (DEC F) (DEC F) JPY Capacity 04:30 Utilization (MoM) (DEC Low -0.2% F) (DEC F) USD G20 Finance Ministers and Central 05:00 Medium Bank Governors Meeting in Russia GBP Retail Sales 09:30 w/Auto Fuel (YoY) Medium 0.9% 0.3% (JAN) GBP Retail Sales (YoY) 09:30 Medium 1.6% 1.1% (JAN) GBP Retail Sales 09:30 w/Auto Fuel (MoM) Low 0.5% -0.1% (JAN) GBP Retail Sales 09:30 Low 0.5% -0.3% (MoM) (JAN)
EUR Euro-Zone Trade 10:00 Balance s.a. (euros) Low 10.6B 11.0B (DEC) EUR Euro-Zone Trade 10:00 Low 12.0B 13.7B Balance (euros) (DEC) USD Empire 13:30 Low -2 -7.78 Manufacturing (FEB) CAD Manufacturing 13:30 Shipments (MoM) Low -0.5% 1.7% (DEC) USD Net Long-term 14:00 Medium $52.3B TIC Flows (DEC) CAD Existing Home 14:00 Medium -0.5% Sales (MoM) (JAN) USD Total Net TIC 14:00 Low $27.8B Flows (DEC) USD Manufacturing 14:15 Medium 0.2% 0.8% (SIC) Production (JAN) USD Industrial 14:15 Medium 0.2% 0.3% Production (JAN) USD Capacity 14:15 Low 78.9% 78.8% Utilization (JAN) USD U. of Michigan 14:55 High 74.5 73.8 Confidence (FEB P)www.epicresearch.co + 91 9752199966
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