2. VISION FOR EUROPEAN ELECTRICITY MARKETS IN 2030 –Vision for the marketmodel of integratedEuropeanelectricitymarkets –

4. Commissioned by the Finnish Energy Industries (ET), the Finnish Electricity Research Pool, Suomen ElFi Oy, the Finnish Forest Industries Federation, the Federation of Finnish Technology Industries and Nord Pool Spot AS

5. Target of the project:

7. Vision for European Electricity Markets in 2030 Vision for the European Electricity Markets in 2030 is based on the European thought and emphasises the influence of consumers (in addition, the other requirements of competition are met) Large price areas from the viewpoint of competition and transmission networks; this supports the formation of price areas Generators and customers benefit from free competition Demand side takes an active role, which is part of free competition The EU’s target for the common European electricity markets can be reached Generation investments are built market-based There are no structural entry barriers for renewable generation

8. Fundamentals of the vision Vision for the European electricity markets in 2030 supports free competition, enables the EU’s targets of the internal markets and does not make renewable electricity generation a support addict. Electricity price is determined based on demand and supply Enough transmission capacity and active demand side are needed If sufficient transmission capacity cannot be built and the demand side cannot be activated, the markets drift toward regulated competition Dynamic development of the markets is hampered Unlike in the free competition, there are no in-built incentives for efficient operations in the regulated competition Separate incentive system is needed to imitate free competition Regulated competition hinders the dynamic development of the markets Regulation systems usually drift into a spiral of complexity, and the systems are heavy

9. Reasearch methodology To compile the vision, the prospects of the electricity markets were scanned in different interest group meetings and workshops Scenario work Objective: to recognise and identify factors that direct the development of the electricity markets, and to assess their significance in the market model applied in the market A group of experts in the electricity markets GDSS (Group Decision Support System) workshop The key target was to identify tools and actions to promote competition in the electricity markets and to assess the effects of these actions and the time required For a selected group of Finnish electricity market specialists with in-depth knowledge about the Nordic and European electricity markets Delphi survey In the Delphi method, the objectives are to forecast the future development, to determine the desirable development trends and to find out how the future development can be influenced Respondents of the survey presented European electricity market professionals The Delphi survey was conducted in two rounds The main result of the first round was a review of the essential elements influencing competition and future development of the European electricity market The target of the second round was to find opportunities to influence certain factors that play a role in establishing a competitive environment in the electricity markets