1. Petroleum Project Economics Econ210D Presentation 6 Sensitivity Analysis for Changing Variables Week 6

4. Petroleum Project Parameters Sensitivity analysis examines the effect of changes in any one of these parameters on the economic evaluation of a project. Sensitivity Analysis for Changing Variables Week 6 Parameter Field Estimate Recoverable Reserves 160 mbo Field Life 20 years Oil Price $60 Total CAPEX $500m OPEX per bbl $5

6. Independent and Control Variables In this sensitivity analysis, oil price is the independent variable and all other parameters are control variables. Sensitivity Analysis for Changing Variables Week 6 Parameter Field Estimate Sensitivity Analysis Recoverable Reserves 160 mbo Control Field Life 20 years Control Oil Price $60 Independent Total CAPEX $500m Control OPEX per bbl $5 Control

7. Sensitivity Analysis of Oil Price Sensitivity Analysis for Changing Variables Week 6 Oil Price NPV $B $50 $2.1 $60 $2.9 $70 $3.7

9. Spider Plots Sensitivity Analysis for Changing Variables Week 6 Change in Independent Variable NPV due to change in Independent Variables Price OPEX CAPEX Reserves Field Life Tax -50% 0.0 -2.9 5.8 5.8 8.7 1.5 -25% 1.5 0.0 4.4 4.4 5.8 2.2 0% 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 25% 4.4 5.8 1.5 1.5 0.0 3.6 50% 5.8 8.7 0.0 0.0 -2.9 4.4

10. Sensitivity Analysis for Changing Variables Week 6

11. Sensitivity Analysis for Changing Variables Week 6

13. Sensitivity Analysis for Changing Variables Week 6

15. Independent Variable Price OPEX CAPEX Percentage Change -50% -2.9 5.8 50% 0 4.4