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Shanghai event 
January 15, 2014 
Dr. Daniel Vermeer 
Associate Professor of the Practice 
Executive Director, EDGE Center 
Duke University
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1. Water in Nature and Society 
2. Water Supply and Demand 
3. The Promise of Water Productivity 
4. Overcoming Barriers
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Ecosystems Public Health 
Agriculture Energy
Annual Renewable WWaatteerr SSuuppppllyy PPeerr PPeerrssoonn -- 11997755 
Water Availability(m3/capita/year) 
Extreme 
Scarcity 
Scarcity Stress Adequate Abundant Surplus
Annual Renewable WWaatteerr SSuuppppllyy PPeerr PPeerrssoonn -- 22000000 
Water Availability(m3/capita/year) 
Extreme 
Scarcity 
Scarcity Stress Adequate Abundant Surplus
Annual Renewable WWaatteerr SSuuppppllyy PPeerr PPeerrssoonn -- 22002255 
Water Availability(m3/capita/year) 
Extreme 
Scarcity 
Scarcity Stress Adequate Abundant Surplus
LLooccaall wwaatteerr aavvaaiillaabbiilliittyy –– 22001122 
Water Availability(m3/capita/year) 
Extreme 
Scarcity 
Scarcity Stress Adequate Abundant Surplus
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• Uneven distribution of water on a global scale 
- 6 countries (Brazil, Russia, Canada, Indonesia, China, and 
Colombia) account for half of Earth’s freshwater supply
China’s water supply gap
Impacts of climate change 
Source: Dai, A. 2010. Drought under global warming: A review. 
Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change 2:45–65.
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AArraall SSeeaa
Water-energy nexus 
• Over the duration of 1 
year, production of 
electricity to power one 
60W incandescent light 
bulb would evaporate 
3,000-6,300 US gallons 
of water. 
• In California, water-related 
energy use 
consumes 19% of 
state’s electricity, 30% of 
its natural gas, and 88 
million gallons of diesel 
fuel every year.
Virtual water 
>90% of most products’ water footprint lies outside a company’s control. 
Source: Wall Street Journal
Water demand outstripping supply
Discussion 
So how is water like oil? How different? 
Similar 
•Both are commodities. 
•Both are critical inputs to economy. 
•Both are unevenly distributed. 
•Both require massive infrastructure 
and capital investment. 
•Both are critical to other systems 
(e.g. agriculture, energy) and highly 
inter-connected. 
•Both are highly regulated. 
•Both are factors in global conflict. 
Different 
•Water is essential for life – part of 
the public commons. 
•Water is local; oil is global. 
•Water is infinitely renewable; oil is 
non-renewable. 
•Water is highly undervalued. 
•Water conflict tends to be erosive 
rather than explosive.
How to close the gap? 
1. Produce more crop per drop. 
2. Enhance water productivity. 
3. Develop new technologies. 
4. Accelerate corporate efforts. 
5. Overcome systemic barriers.
Produce more crop per drop 
The Challenge: Double food production in 40 years with same land & water. 
Approaches: 
• Create market signals to deliver & apply 
water to crops more efficiently. 
• Utilize crop & production innovations to 
increase yields & reduce resource use. 
• Shift diets to satisfy nutritional needs with 
less water. 
• Consider water in global trade policy. 
Source: Amy Vickers and Sandra Postel, “Boosting Water Productivity”, State of the World Report.
Enhance water productivity (India)
Enhance water productivity (China)
Enhance water 
productivity (China) 
• Most of the savings, some $24 billion, 
come from industrial efficiency 
measures. 
 e.g. thermal power, wastewater 
reuse, pulp/paper, textiles, steel. 
• A basin-by-basin approach is needed 
to assess the most cost-effective levers. 
• Meeting growing water demand will 
require a balanced portfolio of levers. 
• The water-energy nexus presents 
additional challenges and opportunities. 
 Super-critical coal processing 
 Coke dry-quenching/waste heat 
capture 
 Renewable energy
Develop new water technologies 
• Global investment in water infrastructure >$400B annually. 
• Pent-up demand. 
1. Agriculture 
• Drip irrigation 
• can reduce water use 30-70% and increase crop yields by 20-90%. 
• High-yielding & early-maturing crop varieties, deficit irrigation. 
1. Urban/Industrial 
• Desalination, sewage treatment, disinfection technologies, filter systems. 
• Pervasive monitoring systems; analytics. 
• Large market for water efficiency technologies in buildings. 
• Integrated solutions for energy/water nexus. 
1. Wastewater 
• Disinfection technologies & filter systems. 
• Waste separation & recycling technologies for households. 
Source: Deutsche Bank Report “Global Water Markets: High 
investment requirements mixed with institutional risks” (2010)
Watergy solutions
Accelerate corporate efforts 
Levi-Strauss Coca-Cola Puma 
Waterless Jeans Water Neutrality Accounting for Nature
Overcome systemic barriers 
1. Financial 
• Insufficient access to capital 
• High upfront costs and transaction costs 
2. Political 
• Some interventions disproportionately affect certain constituencies (e.g. dams) 
• Subsidies distort price signals, so user doesn’t see true costs. 
3. Structural 
• Opportunities are fragmented, and it’s difficult to measure savings. 
• Limited management capabilities 
4. Psychological 
• Water has low mindshare, and end-users aren’t aware of benefits.
Discussion 
"When the well's dry, we know the worth of water." 
Contact: 
Benjamin Franklin, (1706-1790), 
Dr. Daniel Vermeer 
Associate Professor of the Practice 
Executive Director, Center for Energy, Development, and the Global Environment 
Duke University 
dv24@duke.edu 
(919)660-1966 
Poor Richard's Almanac

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Is Water the Oil of the 21st Century?

  • 1. Shanghai event January 15, 2014 Dr. Daniel Vermeer Associate Professor of the Practice Executive Director, EDGE Center Duke University
  • 2. OOvveerrvviieeww 1. Water in Nature and Society 2. Water Supply and Demand 3. The Promise of Water Productivity 4. Overcoming Barriers
  • 3. WWaatteerr iiss ffuunnddaammeennttaall Ecosystems Public Health Agriculture Energy
  • 4. Annual Renewable WWaatteerr SSuuppppllyy PPeerr PPeerrssoonn -- 11997755 Water Availability(m3/capita/year) Extreme Scarcity Scarcity Stress Adequate Abundant Surplus
  • 5. Annual Renewable WWaatteerr SSuuppppllyy PPeerr PPeerrssoonn -- 22000000 Water Availability(m3/capita/year) Extreme Scarcity Scarcity Stress Adequate Abundant Surplus
  • 6. Annual Renewable WWaatteerr SSuuppppllyy PPeerr PPeerrssoonn -- 22002255 Water Availability(m3/capita/year) Extreme Scarcity Scarcity Stress Adequate Abundant Surplus
  • 7. LLooccaall wwaatteerr aavvaaiillaabbiilliittyy –– 22001122 Water Availability(m3/capita/year) Extreme Scarcity Scarcity Stress Adequate Abundant Surplus
  • 8. WWaatteerr--RRiicchh,, WWaatteerr--PPoooorr • Uneven distribution of water on a global scale - 6 countries (Brazil, Russia, Canada, Indonesia, China, and Colombia) account for half of Earth’s freshwater supply
  • 10. Impacts of climate change Source: Dai, A. 2010. Drought under global warming: A review. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change 2:45–65.
  • 12. Water-energy nexus • Over the duration of 1 year, production of electricity to power one 60W incandescent light bulb would evaporate 3,000-6,300 US gallons of water. • In California, water-related energy use consumes 19% of state’s electricity, 30% of its natural gas, and 88 million gallons of diesel fuel every year.
  • 13. Virtual water >90% of most products’ water footprint lies outside a company’s control. Source: Wall Street Journal
  • 15. Discussion So how is water like oil? How different? Similar •Both are commodities. •Both are critical inputs to economy. •Both are unevenly distributed. •Both require massive infrastructure and capital investment. •Both are critical to other systems (e.g. agriculture, energy) and highly inter-connected. •Both are highly regulated. •Both are factors in global conflict. Different •Water is essential for life – part of the public commons. •Water is local; oil is global. •Water is infinitely renewable; oil is non-renewable. •Water is highly undervalued. •Water conflict tends to be erosive rather than explosive.
  • 16. How to close the gap? 1. Produce more crop per drop. 2. Enhance water productivity. 3. Develop new technologies. 4. Accelerate corporate efforts. 5. Overcome systemic barriers.
  • 17. Produce more crop per drop The Challenge: Double food production in 40 years with same land & water. Approaches: • Create market signals to deliver & apply water to crops more efficiently. • Utilize crop & production innovations to increase yields & reduce resource use. • Shift diets to satisfy nutritional needs with less water. • Consider water in global trade policy. Source: Amy Vickers and Sandra Postel, “Boosting Water Productivity”, State of the World Report.
  • 20. Enhance water productivity (China) • Most of the savings, some $24 billion, come from industrial efficiency measures.  e.g. thermal power, wastewater reuse, pulp/paper, textiles, steel. • A basin-by-basin approach is needed to assess the most cost-effective levers. • Meeting growing water demand will require a balanced portfolio of levers. • The water-energy nexus presents additional challenges and opportunities.  Super-critical coal processing  Coke dry-quenching/waste heat capture  Renewable energy
  • 21. Develop new water technologies • Global investment in water infrastructure >$400B annually. • Pent-up demand. 1. Agriculture • Drip irrigation • can reduce water use 30-70% and increase crop yields by 20-90%. • High-yielding & early-maturing crop varieties, deficit irrigation. 1. Urban/Industrial • Desalination, sewage treatment, disinfection technologies, filter systems. • Pervasive monitoring systems; analytics. • Large market for water efficiency technologies in buildings. • Integrated solutions for energy/water nexus. 1. Wastewater • Disinfection technologies & filter systems. • Waste separation & recycling technologies for households. Source: Deutsche Bank Report “Global Water Markets: High investment requirements mixed with institutional risks” (2010)
  • 23. Accelerate corporate efforts Levi-Strauss Coca-Cola Puma Waterless Jeans Water Neutrality Accounting for Nature
  • 24. Overcome systemic barriers 1. Financial • Insufficient access to capital • High upfront costs and transaction costs 2. Political • Some interventions disproportionately affect certain constituencies (e.g. dams) • Subsidies distort price signals, so user doesn’t see true costs. 3. Structural • Opportunities are fragmented, and it’s difficult to measure savings. • Limited management capabilities 4. Psychological • Water has low mindshare, and end-users aren’t aware of benefits.
  • 25. Discussion "When the well's dry, we know the worth of water." Contact: Benjamin Franklin, (1706-1790), Dr. Daniel Vermeer Associate Professor of the Practice Executive Director, Center for Energy, Development, and the Global Environment Duke University dv24@duke.edu (919)660-1966 Poor Richard's Almanac

Editor's Notes

  1. Image: http://peakwater.org/2011/03/last-ditch-plea-on-yangtze-dam/
  2. Global water trends point to increasing water scarcity, as population and economic growth drive increased resource competition.
  3. Left image: US Fish & Wildlife Service (http://images.fws.gov/) Right image: NCRS (http://photogallery.nrcs.usda.gov/)
  4. Image: http://geoserver.isciences.com/DataBlog/?p=1908&pid=119
  5. Sources: http://www.epa.gov/region9/waterinfrastructure/waterenergy.html http://www.weforum.org/content/global-agenda-council-energy-security-2011 WATER FOR ENERGY Liquid Fuels Traditional Oil: 3-7 liters/GJ Oil Sands: 70-1,800 liters/GJ Soy bio-fuel: 50,000-270,000 liters/GJ Electricity Thermoelectric: 720-2,700 liters/MWh Hydroelectric: 17,000 liters/MWh Concentrating Solar: 2,000-3,500 l/MWh ENERGY FOR WATER In the US, running hot water for 5 minutes is equivalent to the energy used for 60W light bulb for 14 hours, Takes 3,200 kilowatt hours to move an acre of water (approximately 326,00 gallons) from Northern California to Southern California, the equivalence of using 9.8 watt-hours per gallon to move the water. Opportunities: California Energy Commission calculated that if they canceled a proposed energy efficiency program to replace with a water savings program, they would save 95 percent of the energy for only 58 percent of the cost.
  6. Source: Wall Street Journal Whether it’s water in a cotton t-shirt Or American classics like the soda/Coke, cheese and hamburger, issues related to water scarcity (being withdrawn faster than being replenished) will have an impact on the food industry. Whether companies think they are or are not be responsible for the water embedded in the products they sell but regardless, this is a risk to be managed. Agriculture is the food industry backbone In addition to its use of water, Agriculture also uses a lot of the available land. (slide)
  7. Image: NCRS (http://photogallery.nrcs.usda.gov/)
  8. Agriculture-Irrigation technology is a rapidly growing, innovative sector Urban/Industrial- 15% of total safe drinking water in US is lost due to leaky pipes- EU as high as 30% and developing countries as high as 60%