The document summarizes preliminary market findings for a housing demand analysis and retail opportunity/gap analysis. The housing demand analysis examines current and projected households by age, income, mobility rates, and homeownership rates to estimate annual housing demand. It finds the highest demand is for rentals priced between $900-1,300 per month. The retail analysis compares consumer expenditures within drive times to existing sales to identify opportunities for new retailers. Next steps proposed include stakeholder interviews, employment projections, conceptual redevelopment pro formas, and fiscal impact assessments.

1. Preliminary Market Findings
► Housing Demand Analysis
► Retail Opportunity/Gap Analysis
FXM Associates
December 2011

2. Housing Demand Analysis
• FXM’s proprietary Housing Demand Model considers the
following:
– Number of households in 2011 by age and income
– Projected number of households by age and income in 2016
– Mobility by age of householder
– Propensity to own or rent by age of householder
– Income qualified households by rent or sales price points
• Average annual housing demand estimated for rental or
sales within target geographic area

3. 20-Minute Drive Time

4. 2011 Income by Age of Householder: Norwich Market Area
12,000
10,000
8,000
Number of Households
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
Age 15 - 24 Age 25 - 34 Age 35 - 44 Age 45 - 54 Age 55 - 64 Age 65 - 74 Age 75 - 84 Age 85+
Total over $36,000 Total over $44,000 Total over $50,000

5. 2016 Income by Age of Householder: Norwich Market Area
12,000
10,000
8,000
Number of Households
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
Age 15 - 24 Age 25 - 34 Age 35 - 44 Age 45 - 54 Age 55 - 64 Age 65 - 74 Age 75 - 84 Age 85+
Total over $36,000 Total over $44,000 Total over $50,000

6. Change in Number of Households by Age and Income Cohorts:
Norwich Market Area 2011-2016
1,500
Total over $36,000
Total over $44,000
1,000
Total over $50,000
Number of Households
500
0
Age 15 - 24 Age 25 - 34 Age 35 - 44 Age 45 - 54 Age 55 - 64 Age 65 - 74 Age 75 - 84 Age 85+
-500
-1,000

7. Annual Mobility Rates by Age of Householder
0.40
0.35
0.30
0.25
0.20
0.15
0.10
0.05
0.00
Age 15 - 24 Age 25 - 34 Age 35 - 44 Age 45 - 54 Age 55 - 64 Age 65 - 74 Age 75 - 84 Age 85+
All Movers Same state or county

8. Propensity to Own or Rent by Age of Householder
0.70
0.60
0.50
0.40
0.30
0.20
0.10
0.00
Under 35 Age 35-44 Age 45-54 Age 55-64 Age 65-74 75 and Over
Propensity to rent Propensity to own

9. Estimated Annual Demand for Rental Units by Price and Age of
Householder: Norwich Market Area 2011-2016
300
250
Number of Units per Year
200
150
100
50
0
Under 35 Age 35-44 Age 45-54 Age 55-64 Age 65-74 75 and Over
Rentals @ $900/month Rentals @ $1100/month Rentals @ $1300/month

10. Estimated Average Annual Demand for Rentals
All Household Types with Qualifying Incomes
2011- 2016
450
396
400
326
350
300
Number of Units per Year
250
187
200
150
100
50
0
Rentals @ $900/month Rentals @ $1100/month Rentals @ $1300/month

11. Average Annual Demand for Rentals: Norwich Market Area 2011-2016
Householders under Age 35 and Ages 55 to 74
300
Age 55-74
45
250 Under Age 35
200 40
150
239
23
100
183
50 97
0
Rentals @ $900/month Rentals @ $1100/month Rentals @ $1300/month

12. Retail Opportunity/Gap Analysis
• Retail Opportunity/Gap Analysis is a snapshot of current
(2010) consumer expenditures and actual store sales
within a defined geographic area
• Retailers typically use 5- 10- and 15-minute drive times
to define their market areas
• Where consumer expenditures within those drive times
exceed store sales potential opportunities exist to
expand existing stores/store sales or attract new retailers

13. 5-Minute Drive Time

14. 10-Minute Drive Time

15. 15-Minute Drive Time

18. Next Steps
• Interviews with selected real estate brokers, businesses, property
owners, economic development professionals
• Assess relative strengths of study area business mix and
concentrations
• Employment and space demand projections to estimate potential
demand for office space etc.
• Prepare conceptual pro forma for selected historic buildings (with
CGI)
• Provide general assessment of fiscal impacts related to building
redevelopment