My predictions prior to the recently concluded Msian GE13 - based on two key predictors (Alternative media penetration and biased constituencies) - and some very generous assumptions!

1. Predictions for the Msian General Election...
Why BN will win GE13 (but let’s not make it a walk in the park for them...)
Before we get too caught up in the overwhelmingly pro-opposition support online, I have some
sobering news: alas, FB sentiment may not be a good predictor for the upcoming GE13. Phantom
voters and other ‘external’ factors aside, the question of just what % of the voting populace is
exposed to alternative media must be considered. For many Msians, alternative media is the only
source of independent news – as opposed to unabashedly pro-government mainstream channels-
and where healthy debate about government policies and decisions can occur. Despite its influence
on our voting decisions, the data that I’ve glanced over sadly does not paint as encouraging a picture
as your recent FB ‘shares’ and ‘posts’ may suggest:
Let’s take a quick peek at the numbers:
1. Total Number of VOTING INTERNET USERS (VIU):
a. Approximately 17m or 60% of the Malaysian population are internet users, 11m or
which are aged 15 or older. Given that approx. 18m or 60% of all Malaysians are
eligible to vote (by virtue of age >18), let’s estimate our subset of internet users
eligible to vote (hereafter referred to as VOTING INTERNET USERS or VIU) to be
around 50%, or 9m of the total voting population of 18m.
2. The Sabah and Sarawak Internet Penetration and Biased Electoral Distribution issues:
a. While VIUs representing 50% of total voting population looks like a strong number,
only a measly 10% of this pool of VIU comes from the States of Sabah and Sarawak
(with the remainder accounted for in Semanjung Msia).
b. This is rather disconcerting as it is public knowledge that while these two states
combine to represent only 15% of total Malaysian population (4.5/28.9m) (excluding
the 1m foreigners in Sabah), the electoral seats allocated consist of 25% (56/222) of
total federal seats. Furthermore, It should also be noted that these Eastern states
have a skewed electoral distribution (i.e. 1 seat = 1 kampung of 1000 persons = 1 city
district 20,000). They have not been happy hunting grounds for the opposition, with
BN achieving a near clean-sweep in previous elections (barring major cities where
internet usage is more prevalent).
3. Some KEY ASSUMPTIONS:
a. 9 out of 10 VIU votes for the Opposition (90% success rate);
b. Voters not exposed to alternative media will vote for BN.
c. Actual voter turn out will be 1 out of every 2 eligible voters. (based on 2008 election
where only 8m parliamentary votes out of 16m were cast)
4. False sense of hope:

2. a. Based on the stats and assumptions above, there should be a total of 0.9m VIU from
the Eastern States and 8.1m from Semanjung (10% & 90% split btw E&W Malaysia),
and hence only 0.4m and 3.65 m ‘guaranteed’ voters for the opposition (after
applying the ½ voter turnout and 9/10 success rate assumptions) respectively. This
accounts for only 25% of the eligible voters who will cast their votes on election day
in Swak/Sabah, and 44% in the West. It is also interesting to note that based on our
assumptions, the no. of total votes predicted for the opposition is quite close to
total votes it won in 2008 (i.e. 4.05m (0.4+3.65) compared to observed 3.8m total
for 2008).
In conclusion, although this election has been hyped up as one that may be closely fought, I still
predict a comfortable win for BN (heck, these guys can win even if they lose the popular vote –see
2008 : won 63% of seats with 50% popular vote), even without the deployment of other tactics such
as phantom voters, foreign workers given voting privileges ...etc. The poor exposure to alternative
media, combined with the significant impact of a biased electoral constituency will make it
extremely difficult for the opposition to improve on their 2008 result.
Sources: http://www.newmediatrendwatch.com/markets-by-country/11-long-haul/55-malaysia,
Wikipedia.