1. NCKU Research Center of Finance Innovation & Investments
證券評價分析奇幻之旅
黃鐘慶
2015.3.14
Idonotmakefilmsprimarilyforchildren. Imakethemforthechildinallofus, whetherwebesixorsixty.-WaltDisney
Disney Case Study
7. NCKU Research Center of Finance Innovation & Investments
DNA
Source: Disneyland Secrets
只要想像力存在於這個世界,迪士尼樂園就永遠不會完工
8. NCKU Research Center of Finance Innovation & Investments
Idonotmakefilmsprimarilyforchildren. Imakethemforthechildinallofus, whetherwebesixorsixty.-WaltDisney
10. NCKU Research Center of Finance Innovation & Investments
1997
Revenue
22,473
Disney
2014
Revenue
48,813
In millionsIn millions
CAGR
4.67%
11. NCKU Research Center of Finance Innovation & Investments
1997
Operating Income
4,312
Disney
2014
Operating Income
11,400
In millionsIn millions
CAGR
5.89%
54. NCKU Research Center of Finance Innovation & Investments
編制順序
註 : 本個案僅編評價模型需要的相關數據
55. NCKU Research Center of Finance Innovation & Investments
損益表 Pro forma
編制一份對未來預期的損益表,通常排除業外一次性的損
益,不受限於會計準則的要求,更適用於投資人做評價的
損益表
56. NCKU Research Center of Finance Innovation & Investments
NOPLAT
Net Operating Profit Less Adjusted Taxes
57. NCKU Research Center of Finance Innovation & Investments
NOPLAT
+
(Dep+Amor)
NI + NCC + Int(1-tax
rate)
接近但不等於
預估現金流量小技巧
58. NCKU Research Center of Finance Innovation & Investments
從公司 ( 債權人
及股東 ) 的角度
FCFF, Free Cash Flow to the Firm
FCFF=NI + NCC + Int*(1-tax rate) – FCInv - WCInv
=CFO + Int*(1-tax rate) – FCInv
名稱 會計定義
NI, net income available to
common shareholders
淨利
NCC, net noncash charges
折舊、攤銷…等
Int, interest expense
利息費用
FCInv, investment in fixed
capital
資本支出
WCInv, Investment in working
capital
( 流動資產 - 流動負債 )
59. NCKU Research Center of Finance Innovation & Investments
NOPLAT + (Dep.+Amor.)
改寫成下式 :
60. NCKU Research Center of Finance Innovation & Investments
Disney 損益表 (Pro forma)
五大部門分別評估
81. NCKU Research Center of Finance Innovation & Investments
It isbetter to beroughly right than precisely wrong. –John
Maynard Keynes與其精確的錯誤,我寧可要模糊的正確。
115. NCKU Research Center of Finance Innovation & Investments
做好被誤解的心理準備
與行之多年的共識不一樣的思考
勇敢承受表面看起來是錯誤的決定
116. NCKU Research Center of Finance Innovation & Investments
成為墓地裡最有錢的人沒有意義,每天晚上當我上床睡覺
時,只要能 對自己說『我完成了一件很棒的事情』,這夠
比什麼都來得有意義。 - 賈伯斯
“Being the richest man in the cemetery doesn't matter to me. Going to bed at night saying we've
done something wonderful... that's what matters to me.”- Steve Jobs
117. NCKU Research Center of Finance Innovation & Investments
2015 證券評價奇幻之旅