Development and Poverty in the Sub-Saharan and Northern Africa
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Through outlining historical and macro-economic background in African development and looking at structural transformation that has taken place on the continent, implications for policymaking and implementation are offered.
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Development and Poverty in the Sub-Saharan and Northern Africa
- 1. Development and Poverty in Sub-Saharan Africa Finn Tarp, UNU-WIDER MFA, Helsinki, Finland 21 March 2018
- 2. Introduction
- 3. Context • The Economist (11 May 2000): Hopeless Africa • The Independent (15 July 2009): Africa – the lost continent • The Economist (3 December 2011): The hopeful continent – Africa rising • A recent Afrobarometer survey suggests: ‘despite high reported growth rates, lived poverty at the grassroots remains little changed’ (Dulani et al. 2013) – Others even question the growth revival referring to poor data
- 4. Questions • What is really happening? • What is going on at country level? • Can one make sense of it all? • Which are the policy implications?
- 6. Brief historical points • Independence in the 1960s • Enthusiasm and progress • Import substitution and high international borrowing • The oil crises of the 1970s • The international debt crisis • Structural adjustment in the 1980s (“getting prices right”)
- 7. Real GDP per capita growth rate by region
- 8. Substantial variability: 16 GAPP country cases
- 9. Four key points • A growth turn-around • But still poor • Heterogeneity (across countries and across time) • Vulnerabilities looming
- 10. Poverty and Human Development
- 11. Monetary poverty headcount ratio at 1.90 USD (2011 PPP)
- 12. Life expectancy at birth
- 13. Human development index by region
- 14. But the poverty challenge remains significant • Population of SSA doubled from 0.5 billion in 1990 to about 1 billion in 2013 • Number of people in absolute poverty increased from 278 million in 1990 to 390 million in 2013 • Seen against a poverty line of 3.10 dollar head count ratio only fell from 74% in 1990 to 65% in 2013
- 19. The basic story • People leaving agriculture – but no productivity increase • De-industrialization – too few jobs being created • Low productivity services and informal sector growing (vulnerable employment)
- 20. Critical Issues for the Future
- 21. Major challenges • Global demographic projections (2015-2050): from 7.3 to 9.7 billion, and Africa’s population is set to double to 2.5 billion (bigger than both China and India and Nigeria bigger than US) • Structural transformation slow • Jobs and employment creation lagging • Agriculture and industrialization constrained • Infrastructure and technology • Climate change looming • Many potential, but every reason to push decisively forward in African development over the next 15-20 years (remembering T x G = 69) • Trickle down alone will not do the trick – see the ”Stockholm Statement”
- 22. UN High-Level Panel report on the post- 2015 development agenda • Called for: • “..A quantum leap forward in economic opportunities and a profound economic transformation to end extreme poverty and improve livelihoods…” • What will it take?
- 24. Three big elephants in the room • Trump • Brexit • Commodity prices
- 25. GROWTH AND POVERTY PROJECT: GAPP
- 26. Learning to compete: L2C
- 27. UNU-WIDER research output • Growth and Poverty in Sub-Saharan Africa: Oxford University Press, edited by Channing Arndt, Andy McKay and Finn Tarp • Measuring Poverty and Wellbeing in Developing Countries: Oxford University Press, edited by Channing Arndt and Finn Tarp • Made in Africa: The Brookings Press, by Carol Newman, John Page, John Rand, Abebe Shimeles, Måns Söderbom, and Finn Tarp • Manufacturing Transformation: Comparative Studies of Industrial Development in Africa and Emerging Asia: Oxford University Press, edited by Carol Newman, John Page, John Rand, Abebe Shimeles, Måns Söderbom, and Finn Tarp • Africa’s Lions: The Brookings Press, edited by Haroon Bhorat and Finn Tarp • Beating the Odds: Jumpstarting and Sustaining Inclusive Structural Transformation: Princeton University Press, by Celestin Monga and Justin Lin (see also Justin Lin’s WIDER Annual Lecture) • Building State Capability: Evidence, Analysis, Action: Oxford University Press, by Matt Andrews, Lant Pritchett, and Michael Woolcock, (see also Pritchett’s WIDER Annual Lecture) • The Practice of Industrial Policy: Business Coordination in Africa and East Asia: Oxford University Press, edited by John Page and Finn Tarp • Growth, Structural Transformation and Rural Change in Vietnam: A Rising Dragon on the Move: Oxford University Press, edited by Finn Tarp • Growth, Employment, and Poverty in Latin America: Oxford University Press, edited by Garry Fields et al. • A LOT MORE: see https://www.wider.unu.edu/publications and https://www.wider.unu.edu/ including a series of special issues of journals and stand alone articles
Editor's Notes
- Donor efforts in the social sectors have been highly successful – especially in the areas of health and education. However, for the movement of labour from the agricultural sector to the non-farm economy donors need to be more closely involved in the agricultural and industrial policies.