The document provides an overview of a risk appetite webcast held by Towers Perrin and PartnerRe on July 14, 2009. It includes biographies of the speakers, discussion topics to be covered such as defining risk appetite and PartnerRe's approach, and an illustrative case study on how a board of directors and management can work together to set risk appetite and limits. The goal is to help organizations better articulate their risk tolerance both qualitatively and quantitatively.
18. Risk Appetite
July 14, 2009 18
Importance of a Stated Risk Appetite
Clients, shareholders, employees and regulators need to know
how much risk you are willing to take, not just how much you
actually take
Key to governance: Set of principles and policies that guide
behavior for all risks
Limit, accumulation and exposure management
Necessary to determine required capital
Alignment of risk and return objectives
19. Risk Appetite
July 14, 2009 19
Basis of Measurement – Economic Framework
Quantitative aspect focuses on assumed risks
Economic balance sheet drives our thinking
GAAP and regulatory models provide additional constraints when
reviewing capitalization
Downside measure
Impairment to economic balance sheet
Not earnings volatility
Risk attitudes can be described by associating probabilities of
loss with tolerance of economic capital loss
Once a maximum risk tolerance is determined, we can translate into a
guideline for actions on specific risks
Determine required capital range
20. Risk Appetite
July 14, 2009 20
PartnerRe: Evolution of Stated Risk Appetite
Focus on the three reinsurance “killers” or “shock losses”
Catastrophe
Loss trends/inflation (casualty)
Equity market risk
Define the metric
Catastrophe = annual aggregate loss, all zones all perils
Loss trends/inflation = prior year casualty loss ratio deterioration
Equity market risk = stock market drop over one year period
21. Risk Appetite
July 14, 2009 21
PartnerRe: Evolution of Stated Risk Appetite
Return goals are easy to state, risk goals are more difficult
Risk tolerance is informed by return goals
Risk appetite and return goals need to be aligned
We asked the board the following: How much economic capital
are you willing to lose for each shock loss?
Focus on unlikely and remote events for specific risks
Unlikely = 1-in-15 year event
Remote = 1-in-75 year event
Difficult to relate to a 1-in-100 or 1-in-250 due to model error and context
22. Risk Appetite
July 14, 2009 22
PartnerRe: Evolution of Stated Risk Appetite
There is no right answer
Survey of Board in role of representatives of shareholder interests
Need a context: scenario testing from prior known events or
“what if” scenarios
Repeat of the 1929 – 1933 bear market and equity portfolio sizes
Hurricane Andrew and various aggregation assumptions
Early 2000’s prior year casualty development and premium volumes
Considerations
Perception and credibility of Company: how would clients/shareholders
view a loss from each specific risk
Ability to recover and trade through a shock loss
23. Risk Appetite
July 14, 2009 23
PartnerRe Risk Appetite
1-in-15 year event 1-in-75 year event
Q1 2009 Q1 2009
Risk Modeled Risk Modeled
Appetite Loss Appetite Loss
Catastrophe (incl. ILS) 12% 7% 24% 20%
Casualty 12% 9% 18% 12%
Equity and Equity Like 15% 4% 18% 6%
Stated as a percent of Economic Capital
Where you are within your risk appetite is informed by the
expected return outlook
24. Risk Appetite
July 14, 2009 24
PartnerRe: Extension of Risk Appetite to Risk Limits
Consistent with and derived from risk appetite
Non-modeled metrics that are observable, can be directly
measured, and are easily actionable
Aggregation of limits
Casualty premium
Market value of equities
Limits
Shock losses set by board
Executive and business unit management define more specific limits by
risk within underwriting authorities and guidelines
25. Risk Appetite
July 14, 2009 25
PartnerRe Risk Limits
Risk Metric Aggregate Limit % of Total Capital
Max. aggregate exposure in any single zone $1.5 billion 31%
on any single peril
Actual
Risk Dash Board: Current level of Catastrophe exposure $1.5 billion
Limit
$1.5 billion
Risk Metric $billions
Earned premium limit for casualty and other long-tail lines $3.8
for the 4 most recent underwriting periods
Actual 4-year aggregate long-tail premiums earned 23%
as % of all premiums earned in same period
Risk Dashboard: Current level of 4-year aggregate long-tail earned premiums
Actual
$2.7 billion
Limit
$3.8 billion
Based on exposure as at March 31, 2009
26. Risk Appetite
July 14, 2009 26
Equity Investment Risk Limit
Risk Metric Absolute Limit % Total Capital
Maximum investment in equity and $2.4 billion 50%
equity-like assets
Current investments in equity and $0.8 billion 17%
equity-like assets
Risk Dashboard: Current level of equity and equity-like exposure
Actual
$0.8 billion
Limit
$2.4 billion
Based on exposure as at at March 31, 2009
27. Risk Appetite
July 14, 2009 27
PartnerRe: Desired Capital Range
Modeled loss for all risks in extreme tail
Additional consideration based on judgment regarding known
but non-modeled loss
Scenario testing and “what if’s” to put in context
The Question: How much of your capital are you willing to lose if
multiple tail events occur in one year?
Diversification becomes an important element to consider and is
a key risk management tool
28. Risk Appetite
July 14, 2009 28
Desired Capital and Capital Management
Desired
Economic
Capital
Range
Capital Capital
Coverage At Risk
Ratio
Economic Capital
1-in-100 1-in-250
Return Period
29. Risk Appetite
July 14, 2009 29
Risk Appetite: Conclusion
Board engagement is required
Credibility
Stated risk appetite and proven ability to manage exposures to within the
appetite
Transparency and communication are important so clients and
shareholders can make their own assessments
Qualitative and Quantitative Assessment
Without a risk appetite, it is difficult to put a return goal into context
Optimize risk/return within risk appetite and risk limits