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Risk Appetite Webcast




July 14, 2009


© 2009 Towers Perrin
Biographies

                       Linda Chase-Jenkins, Towers Perrin
                       Linda Chase-Jenkins is a Principal of Towers Perrin based in the firm’s New
                       York office. Ms. Chase-Jenkins also co-leads the firm’s global enterprise risk
                       management insurance practice. Her areas of expertise include risk and capital
                       management, strategy development and business planning for a wide range of
                       insurance and financial services companies.

                       Eric Gesick, PartnerRe
                       Eric Gesick is the Chief Actuarial Officer for PartnerRe and is based in the
                       firm’s Bermuda office. Mr. Gesick has oversight responsibility for PartnerRe’s
                       actuarial function, including the organization’s reserving process for group
                       coverage. Additionally, he is responsible for PartnerRe’s capital modeling,
                       capital allocation and return measurement.


                       Joe Lebens, Towers Perrin
                       Joe Lebens is a Principal of Towers Perrin based in the firm’s Hartford office.
                       Mr. Lebens also leads the firm’s enterprise risk management sales team within
                       Towers Perrin’s North America property & casualty insurance practice. His
                       areas of expertise include capital management through the use of dynamic
                       financial modeling.


                                                                                                         Proprietary and Confidential
© 2009 Towers Perrin                                                   Not for use or disclosure outside Towers Perrin and its clients   2
Discussion topics

       Current practices and plans
       Definitions and best practices
       PartnerRe risk appetite
       Illustrative case study
       Q&A




                                                                          Proprietary and Confidential
© 2009 Towers Perrin                    Not for use or disclosure outside Towers Perrin and its clients   3
Current practices and plans




© 2009 Towers Perrin          4
Within 12 months, 84% of respondents expect to
have a documented risk appetite/tolerance statement

                       Do you have a documented risk appetite/tolerance statement?

          No, and no plans to develop
                within next 12 months

                                              16%


                                                         47%                   Yes
                 No, but planned to
                  be in place within          37%
                   next 12 months




                                   In Place    Planned Within 12 Months                          Not Planned
          Small                     34%                  44%                                               22%
          Medium and                57%                  33%                                               10%
          Large
Base: Total Respondents for Q.11
                                                                                                 Proprietary and Confidential
© 2009 Towers Perrin                                           Not for use or disclosure outside Towers Perrin and its clients   5
Balance sheet solvency is the principal
focus of risk appetite/tolerance statements
                   Which of the following measures of risk are used in your
                risk appetite/tolerance statement? Please select all that apply.
                          Regulatory capital                                                                                                 55%

                           Economic capital                                                                                                54%

                       Rating agency capital                                                       33%

      GAAP or IFRS earnings volatility                                                   28%

                 Risk of loss of percentage
                                                                                       27%
                   of GAAP or IFRS equity

           Risk of regulatory intervention                                             27%

     Risk of rating agency downgrade                                            22%

   Risk of percentage reduction in
                                                                               20%
GAAP or IFRS earnings vs. forecast
      Risk of loss of percentage of                                            20%
 embedded value or economic value

Base: Those that have a documented risk appetite/tolerance statement n = 168
                                                                                                                       Proprietary and Confidential
© 2009 Towers Perrin                                                                 Not for use or disclosure outside Towers Perrin and its clients   6
Nearly 60% of respondents say their
    statements specifically forbid taking certain risks

             Does your risk appetite/tolerance statement specifically forbid the
                   taking of certain risks? Please select all that apply.

 Yes — for risks where we do not have                                                                                                                      44%
   sufficient understanding of the risks

       Yes — for risks where significant
                                                                                                                                   35%
       damage to reputation may result

Yes — for risks where we are unable to
                                                                                                21%
           satisfactorily model the risks

                     Yes — for another reason                                      13%


                                                     No                                                                                           41%




    Base: Those that have a documented risk appetite/tolerance statement n = 168

                                                                                                                           Proprietary and Confidential
    © 2009 Towers Perrin                                                                 Not for use or disclosure outside Towers Perrin and its clients    7
The majority of companies have risk limits for their
major risks, but only 23% have limits on operational risk
          For which of the following types of risk have you set limits to
  govern day-to-day risk taking within the business? Please select all that apply.


                       Market risk                                                                64%


                       Credit risk                                                                     65%


              Insurance risk                                                                 62%


           Operational risk                23%


      None of the above              13%




Base: Total respondents n = 359


                                                                                       Proprietary and Confidential
© 2009 Towers Perrin                                 Not for use or disclosure outside Towers Perrin and its clients   8
Only 40% have demonstrated consistency of their
bottom-up risk limits with their risk appetite statements

          Have you demonstrated/modeled the consistency of your
  bottom-up risk limits with your top-down risk appetite/tolerance statement?




                                           40%               Yes                   54% of North American
                                                                                   respondents have demonstrated
  No                   60%                                                         consistency with their risk
                                                                                   appetite/tolerance statement vs.
                                                                                   Europe 30% vs. Asia/Pacific 30%
                                                                                   European companies have more
                                                                                   comprehensive risk limits




Base: Those that have a documented risk appetite/tolerance statement and have set limits to govern day-to-day risk taking n = 146


                                                                                                                          Proprietary and Confidential
© 2009 Towers Perrin                                                                    Not for use or disclosure outside Towers Perrin and its clients   9
Definitions and best practices




© 2009 Towers Perrin             10
Risk appetite aims to provide a
framework for managing risk in the business

       Risk appetite is defined formally by the board to
       provide guidance/principles to management
       Risk appetite does not seek to address the detail of
       policies, procedures, etc.
       Provides a means of communicating the board’s
       views/expectations on risk




                                                                            Proprietary and Confidential
© 2009 Towers Perrin                      Not for use or disclosure outside Towers Perrin and its clients   11
Definitions

     Risk appetite is…
       Total risk exposure organization will undertake to achieve its
       objectives
       Generally expressed in qualitative terms that reflect policyholder
       and shareholder considerations
       Set and endorsed by the board through discussions with
       management
     Corporate risk tolerance is…
      Amount of risk an organization is willing to accept in aggregate
      (or occasionally within a specific business unit or risk category)
      Expressed in quantitative terms that can be monitored
     Risk limits are…
       The more granular tolerance levels expressed for specific
       products, business lines or risk categories used to monitor the
       organization’s risk exposure

                                                                                  Proprietary and Confidential
© 2009 Towers Perrin                            Not for use or disclosure outside Towers Perrin and its clients   12
The risk appetite statement provides
guidance for a variety of key stakeholders

1. Policyholders, Bondholders…and Regulators,
   Rating Agencies
     Focus on strategies to prevent default
     Little or no interest in upside from risk taking
     or nature of risks
2. Shareholders and Analysts
    Focus on return on capital above the price of risk
    Don’t like surprises
    Interested in upside from risk taking; want thorough
    understanding of nature and distribution of risks
3. Management and Employees
    Need guidance regarding risk limits

                                                                       Proprietary and Confidential
© 2009 Towers Perrin                 Not for use or disclosure outside Towers Perrin and its clients   13
Risk appetite is not captured by any one measure due
to the varied characteristics of underlying risk events



                                          Risk Appetite

                              Key risk measures


                                                                                           Other risk
           Profit                  Required        Return on                              constraints
          volatility                capital         capital
         S/h focus                 P/h focus       S/h focus



                       Risk management processes, policies and procedures




                                                                                            Proprietary and Confidential
© 2009 Towers Perrin                                      Not for use or disclosure outside Towers Perrin and its clients   14
Establishing risk appetite and setting risk
    tolerances are integral to better risk-based decisions

                                                 ERM Framework

                                                                       Organization
                                                                  Governance
                                                                  Accountability: Roles and
                                  Strategy                        Responsibilities

   Output                  Goals and objectives
                           Risk Appetite                                                                                             Tools
from Risk
                                                                         Process
  Appetite                 Corporate Risk Tolerance
  Process                                                         Identify
                                                                  Quantify
                                                                  Solve
                                                                  Execute



                                                      Monitoring and Reporting
                           Board reviews actual overall risk vs. established corporate risk tolerance
                           Business units monitor aggregate risks against defined risk limits



                                                                                                               Proprietary and Confidential
    © 2009 Towers Perrin                                                     Not for use or disclosure outside Towers Perrin and its clients   15
Summary of risk appetite best practices

       Risk appetite articulated explicitly and calibrated to
       company’s targeted financial performance indicators
       Management engages board in discussion about risk appetite
       (qualitative) and corporate risk tolerances (quantitative)
       Risk profiles for business units and enterprise consider stress
       events to ensure company can withstand unexpected events
       Risk limits for individual business activities established like
       overall risk appetite —quantitative, bottom-up aggregation
       Compliance with corporate risk tolerances and risk limits is
       monitored and reported



                                                                                 Proprietary and Confidential
© 2009 Towers Perrin                           Not for use or disclosure outside Towers Perrin and its clients   16
Risk Appetite
Eric Gesick
Chief Actuarial Officer

July 14, 2009
Risk Appetite
                                           July 14, 2009       18



Importance of a Stated Risk Appetite

Clients, shareholders, employees and regulators need to know
how much risk you are willing to take, not just how much you
actually take

Key to governance: Set of principles and policies that guide
behavior for all risks

Limit, accumulation and exposure management

Necessary to determine required capital

Alignment of risk and return objectives
Risk Appetite
                                                July 14, 2009            19



Basis of Measurement – Economic Framework
Quantitative aspect focuses on assumed risks
Economic balance sheet drives our thinking
  GAAP and regulatory models provide additional constraints when
  reviewing capitalization
Downside measure
  Impairment to economic balance sheet
  Not earnings volatility
Risk attitudes can be described by associating probabilities of
loss with tolerance of economic capital loss
  Once a maximum risk tolerance is determined, we can translate into a
  guideline for actions on specific risks
  Determine required capital range
Risk Appetite
                                                     July 14, 2009       20



PartnerRe: Evolution of Stated Risk Appetite
Focus on the three reinsurance “killers” or “shock losses”
  Catastrophe
  Loss trends/inflation (casualty)
  Equity market risk

Define the metric
  Catastrophe = annual aggregate loss, all zones all perils
  Loss trends/inflation = prior year casualty loss ratio deterioration
  Equity market risk = stock market drop over one year period
Risk Appetite
                                                    July 14, 2009                 21



PartnerRe: Evolution of Stated Risk Appetite

Return goals are easy to state, risk goals are more difficult
   Risk tolerance is informed by return goals
   Risk appetite and return goals need to be aligned
We asked the board the following: How much economic capital
are you willing to lose for each shock loss?

Focus on unlikely and remote events for specific risks
   Unlikely = 1-in-15 year event
   Remote = 1-in-75 year event
   Difficult to relate to a 1-in-100 or 1-in-250 due to model error and context
Risk Appetite
                                                  July 14, 2009           22



PartnerRe: Evolution of Stated Risk Appetite

There is no right answer
  Survey of Board in role of representatives of shareholder interests

Need a context: scenario testing from prior known events or
“what if” scenarios
  Repeat of the 1929 – 1933 bear market and equity portfolio sizes
  Hurricane Andrew and various aggregation assumptions
  Early 2000’s prior year casualty development and premium volumes

Considerations
  Perception and credibility of Company: how would clients/shareholders
  view a loss from each specific risk
  Ability to recover and trade through a shock loss
Risk Appetite
                                                         July 14, 2009           23



PartnerRe Risk Appetite

                                    1-in-15 year event      1-in-75 year event
                                              Q1 2009                 Q1 2009
                                     Risk     Modeled        Risk     Modeled
                                    Appetite    Loss        Appetite    Loss

  Catastrophe (incl. ILS)                   12%     7%              24%    20%

  Casualty                                  12%     9%              18%    12%

  Equity and Equity Like                    15%     4%              18%     6%


  Stated as a percent of Economic Capital



     Where you are within your risk appetite is informed by the
                    expected return outlook
Risk Appetite
                                               July 14, 2009              24



PartnerRe: Extension of Risk Appetite to Risk Limits

Consistent with and derived from risk appetite

Non-modeled metrics that are observable, can be directly
measured, and are easily actionable
  Aggregation of limits
  Casualty premium
  Market value of equities

Limits
  Shock losses set by board
  Executive and business unit management define more specific limits by
  risk within underwriting authorities and guidelines
Risk Appetite
                                                                         July 14, 2009                                  25



PartnerRe Risk Limits
Risk Metric                                                    Aggregate Limit           % of Total Capital
Max. aggregate exposure in any single zone                           $1.5 billion                             31%
on any single peril
                                                                                            Actual
Risk Dash Board: Current level of Catastrophe exposure                                    $1.5 billion

                                                                                                   Limit
                                                                                                   $1.5 billion




Risk Metric                                                                                              $billions
Earned premium limit for casualty and other long-tail lines                                               $3.8
for the 4 most recent underwriting periods
Actual 4-year aggregate long-tail premiums earned                                                            23%
as % of all premiums earned in same period
Risk Dashboard: Current level of 4-year aggregate long-tail earned premiums
                                                                Actual
                                                              $2.7 billion


                                                                                                         Limit
                                                                                                         $3.8 billion




Based on exposure as at March 31, 2009
Risk Appetite
                                                                    July 14, 2009                         26



Equity Investment Risk Limit
 Risk Metric                                                       Absolute Limit   % Total Capital
 Maximum investment in equity and                                   $2.4 billion               50%
 equity-like assets
 Current investments in equity and                                  $0.8 billion               17%
 equity-like assets
Risk Dashboard: Current level of equity and equity-like exposure
                              Actual
                            $0.8 billion


                                                                                           Limit
                                                                                           $2.4 billion




Based on exposure as at at March 31, 2009
Risk Appetite
                                             July 14, 2009      27



PartnerRe: Desired Capital Range

Modeled loss for all risks in extreme tail

Additional consideration based on judgment regarding known
but non-modeled loss

Scenario testing and “what if’s” to put in context

The Question: How much of your capital are you willing to lose if
multiple tail events occur in one year?

Diversification becomes an important element to consider and is
a key risk management tool
Risk Appetite
                                                       July 14, 2009             28


  Desired Capital and Capital Management
 Desired
Economic
 Capital
 Range

                                        Capital                        Capital
                                        Coverage                       At Risk
                                        Ratio
   Economic Capital




                      1-in-100   1-in-250

                                       Return Period
Risk Appetite
                                                   July 14, 2009               29



Risk Appetite: Conclusion

Board engagement is required

Credibility
   Stated risk appetite and proven ability to manage exposures to within the
   appetite
   Transparency and communication are important so clients and
   shareholders can make their own assessments

Qualitative and Quantitative Assessment

Without a risk appetite, it is difficult to put a return goal into context
   Optimize risk/return within risk appetite and risk limits
Illustrative case study




© 2009 Towers Perrin      30
There is an implied “contract” between
the board and management on risk and return


                Board of Directors                                 Management
        Sets/approves overall risk                 Develops business strategy,
        appetite and corporate risk                sets financial targets (e.g.,
        tolerance that align with                  growth, earnings, ROE)
        stakeholder expectations*
                                                   Determines overall
        Approves capital plan          “Risk       (economic) capital needs and
                                      Contract”    performs capital budgeting
        Ensures appropriate
        corporate risk governance                    Allocates capital
                                                   Manages business to achieve
                                                   results according to detailed
                                                   business plans and agreed
                                                   risk tolerances/ limits




                                                                                    Proprietary and Confidential
© 2009 Towers Perrin                              Not for use or disclosure outside Towers Perrin and its clients   31
More granular expectations can be defined once
the board and management agree on overall objectives


                                                        Risk Appetite
  Board/CEO
                                                        Risk Tolerance
                                                         Statements



  C-Suite                                  Risk Limit     Risk Limit               Risk Limit




  BU Leaders           Risk Limit          Risk Limit     Risk Limit




                                    Etc.



                                                                                                  Proprietary and Confidential
© 2009 Towers Perrin                                            Not for use or disclosure outside Towers Perrin and its clients   32
Client background

       Board composed of individuals from varied
       backgrounds and different industries
       Lacked common definition or understanding of “risk”
       No common perspective on amount of risk company
       was currently accepting
       No common perspective on amount of risk company
       should be willing to accept
       No risk appetite or risk tolerance statements in place




                                                                            Proprietary and Confidential
© 2009 Towers Perrin                      Not for use or disclosure outside Towers Perrin and its clients   33
Client objectives

       Establish a common foundation/understanding and
       vocabulary for discussions of risk between the board
       and senior management (and the entire organization)
       Develop preliminary risk appetite and risk tolerance
       statements
          Informed by relevant industry and client information
          and benchmarks
       Create an approach to validating and refining the
       preliminary risk appetite/tolerance statements




                                                                            Proprietary and Confidential
© 2009 Towers Perrin                      Not for use or disclosure outside Towers Perrin and its clients   34
Risk appetite was defined using a
     combination of qualitative and quantitative inputs

              Approach to Defining Client’s Risk Appetite/Risk Tolerance
Qualitative       Quantitative           Inputs

                                    Client’s Mission,
                                    Vision, & Values
                                                           Phase 1
                                 Management and BOD           Preliminary Risk
                                     Perspectives            Appetite/Tolerance


                                     Industry/Client
                                  Historical Reference
                                          Points

                                 Client’s Risk Modeling
                                 and Sensitivity Testing
                                                                                                  Phase 2

                                  Regulatory/Rating                                                      Revised Risk
                                  Agency Thresholds                                                    Appetite/Tolerance


                                     Board Review
                                       and Input


                                                                                                       Proprietary and Confidential
     © 2009 Towers Perrin                                            Not for use or disclosure outside Towers Perrin and its clients   35
The initial phase aimed at establishing a
common understanding and risk vocabulary

      Board and management perspectives on risk were captured
      through confidential individual interviews
      The objective was to determine how much uniformity there is in
      the perspectives of board members and senior management
      We asked a common set of questions to each participant
      Results were compiled and presented to the board and
      management
       Individual responses remained anonymous




                                                                                 Proprietary and Confidential
© 2009 Towers Perrin                           Not for use or disclosure outside Towers Perrin and its clients   36
For example, we asked each participant about their
                willingness to sustain various levels of surplus declines…
                                                             Tolerance for Loss of Surplus
                   Tolerable Annual
                      Probability
              1-in-2     50%

                                                                                                                                    Maximum
                         40%                                                                                                        Management Average
                                                                    Outlier
                                                                  responses                                                         Board Average
               1-in-3                                                                                                               Overall Average
                         30%                           30%                                                                          Minimum
1-in-X-Year
      Event    1-in-4
Equivalent
               1-in-5    20%
                                                                                        18%

                                         Strong        14%                                                      Nearly all interviewees
                                                 11%                                                            stated that this should
              1-in-10    10%           Consensus
                                                                                        7%                      never happen.
                                                       7%
              1-in-20                                                              5%
                                                 3%                                     2%                                                        2%
                           0%                                                      0%                                                             0%
                                            10% Loss of Surplus               20% Loss of Surplus                             50% Loss of Surplus

                                                                                  Scenario


                                                                                                                                Proprietary and Confidential
                © 2009 Towers Perrin                                                          Not for use or disclosure outside Towers Perrin and its clients   37
…and compared responses to the
              historical experience for both the industry and client

                                          Comparison of Client's Tolerance for Surplus
                                               Losses to Historical Experience
                         Probability
                1-in-5     20%


                                                                                                               16%
                1-in-7
                           15%
1-in-X-Year
      Event
Equivalent                                   11%
               1-in-10     10%

                                                                                                                                                   8%
              1-in-20        5%                                5%



                             0%                                                 0%
                                       10% loss          20% loss         50% loss          U.S. P/C Industry                          Client
                                       of surplus        of surplus       of surplus         (1946 – 2008)                         (19XX – 2008)

                                                     Client Interviewee                           Historical Benchmarks —
                                                    Tolerance (Average)                          Frequency of Surplus Loss



                                                                                                                         Proprietary and Confidential
              © 2009 Towers Perrin                                                     Not for use or disclosure outside Towers Perrin and its clients   38
Some questions were aimed at comparing the
    perceived current and desired risk appetites

                                               Client’s Risk Appetite

Number of                      Current                             Number of                           Desired
Responses                                                          Responses
       7                                   Management                     7                                                    Management
       6                                                                  6                                    2
                                           Board member                                                                        Board member
       5                   2                                              5
       4                                                                  4
                    1                                                                                                  3
       3                       2                                          3
                                                                                                        1      5
       2                   4                                              2
                    3
       1                       2                                          1                             2              2
                                   1   1   1                                                    1                              1
       0                                                                  0
              1     2      3   4   5   6   7   8   9     10                     1       2       3       4      5       6      7       8       9       10
           (Low)               Risk Appetite           (High)                 (Low)                   Risk Appetite                               (High)


                                                          Average Scores
                                                                Current                  Desired
                                       Management                 4.1                         5.6
                                       Board                      3.1                         4.8



                                                                                                                      Proprietary and Confidential
    © 2009 Towers Perrin                                                            Not for use or disclosure outside Towers Perrin and its clients        39
This interview/feedback approach laid the
foundation for developing a risk appetite statement

      Consistent vocabulary created among all board and
      management participants
      Process helped drive a more consistent appetite for risk
      between and among the board and management
        More realistic expectations
      Interview process created non-threatening environment to
      facilitate learning and understanding
      Preliminary risk appetite statement was drafted




                                                                                Proprietary and Confidential
© 2009 Towers Perrin                          Not for use or disclosure outside Towers Perrin and its clients   40
This interview/feedback approach also elevated the
level of discussion and decision making about risk

      In subsequent phases of the project:
         Economic capital modeling was completed
         — Results were compared with the preliminary risk
            tolerances; some incompatibility was observed
         Preliminary risk appetite statement was refined
         Plan was developed to bring company into line with its newly
         agreed upon and stated risk appetite and risk tolerances
      Additional work is under way:
        Risk monitoring and reporting process are being established
        Risk limits are being established
        Risk modeling is being refined



                                                                               Proprietary and Confidential
© 2009 Towers Perrin                         Not for use or disclosure outside Towers Perrin and its clients   41
Q&A
Q&A

                       Linda Chase-Jenkins, Towers Perrin
                       (212) 309-3897
                       Linda.chase-jenkins@towersperrin.com




                       Eric Gesick, PartnerRe
                       (441) 294-5291
                       Eric.gesick@partnerre.com




                       Joe Lebens, Towers Perrin
                       (860) 843-7056
                       Joe.lebens@towersperrin.com




                                                                                                Proprietary and Confidential
© 2009 Towers Perrin                                          Not for use or disclosure outside Towers Perrin and its clients   43

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Risk Appetite

  • 1. Risk Appetite Webcast July 14, 2009 © 2009 Towers Perrin
  • 2. Biographies Linda Chase-Jenkins, Towers Perrin Linda Chase-Jenkins is a Principal of Towers Perrin based in the firm’s New York office. Ms. Chase-Jenkins also co-leads the firm’s global enterprise risk management insurance practice. Her areas of expertise include risk and capital management, strategy development and business planning for a wide range of insurance and financial services companies. Eric Gesick, PartnerRe Eric Gesick is the Chief Actuarial Officer for PartnerRe and is based in the firm’s Bermuda office. Mr. Gesick has oversight responsibility for PartnerRe’s actuarial function, including the organization’s reserving process for group coverage. Additionally, he is responsible for PartnerRe’s capital modeling, capital allocation and return measurement. Joe Lebens, Towers Perrin Joe Lebens is a Principal of Towers Perrin based in the firm’s Hartford office. Mr. Lebens also leads the firm’s enterprise risk management sales team within Towers Perrin’s North America property & casualty insurance practice. His areas of expertise include capital management through the use of dynamic financial modeling. Proprietary and Confidential © 2009 Towers Perrin Not for use or disclosure outside Towers Perrin and its clients 2
  • 3. Discussion topics Current practices and plans Definitions and best practices PartnerRe risk appetite Illustrative case study Q&A Proprietary and Confidential © 2009 Towers Perrin Not for use or disclosure outside Towers Perrin and its clients 3
  • 4. Current practices and plans © 2009 Towers Perrin 4
  • 5. Within 12 months, 84% of respondents expect to have a documented risk appetite/tolerance statement Do you have a documented risk appetite/tolerance statement? No, and no plans to develop within next 12 months 16% 47% Yes No, but planned to be in place within 37% next 12 months In Place Planned Within 12 Months Not Planned Small 34% 44% 22% Medium and 57% 33% 10% Large Base: Total Respondents for Q.11 Proprietary and Confidential © 2009 Towers Perrin Not for use or disclosure outside Towers Perrin and its clients 5
  • 6. Balance sheet solvency is the principal focus of risk appetite/tolerance statements Which of the following measures of risk are used in your risk appetite/tolerance statement? Please select all that apply. Regulatory capital 55% Economic capital 54% Rating agency capital 33% GAAP or IFRS earnings volatility 28% Risk of loss of percentage 27% of GAAP or IFRS equity Risk of regulatory intervention 27% Risk of rating agency downgrade 22% Risk of percentage reduction in 20% GAAP or IFRS earnings vs. forecast Risk of loss of percentage of 20% embedded value or economic value Base: Those that have a documented risk appetite/tolerance statement n = 168 Proprietary and Confidential © 2009 Towers Perrin Not for use or disclosure outside Towers Perrin and its clients 6
  • 7. Nearly 60% of respondents say their statements specifically forbid taking certain risks Does your risk appetite/tolerance statement specifically forbid the taking of certain risks? Please select all that apply. Yes — for risks where we do not have 44% sufficient understanding of the risks Yes — for risks where significant 35% damage to reputation may result Yes — for risks where we are unable to 21% satisfactorily model the risks Yes — for another reason 13% No 41% Base: Those that have a documented risk appetite/tolerance statement n = 168 Proprietary and Confidential © 2009 Towers Perrin Not for use or disclosure outside Towers Perrin and its clients 7
  • 8. The majority of companies have risk limits for their major risks, but only 23% have limits on operational risk For which of the following types of risk have you set limits to govern day-to-day risk taking within the business? Please select all that apply. Market risk 64% Credit risk 65% Insurance risk 62% Operational risk 23% None of the above 13% Base: Total respondents n = 359 Proprietary and Confidential © 2009 Towers Perrin Not for use or disclosure outside Towers Perrin and its clients 8
  • 9. Only 40% have demonstrated consistency of their bottom-up risk limits with their risk appetite statements Have you demonstrated/modeled the consistency of your bottom-up risk limits with your top-down risk appetite/tolerance statement? 40% Yes 54% of North American respondents have demonstrated No 60% consistency with their risk appetite/tolerance statement vs. Europe 30% vs. Asia/Pacific 30% European companies have more comprehensive risk limits Base: Those that have a documented risk appetite/tolerance statement and have set limits to govern day-to-day risk taking n = 146 Proprietary and Confidential © 2009 Towers Perrin Not for use or disclosure outside Towers Perrin and its clients 9
  • 10. Definitions and best practices © 2009 Towers Perrin 10
  • 11. Risk appetite aims to provide a framework for managing risk in the business Risk appetite is defined formally by the board to provide guidance/principles to management Risk appetite does not seek to address the detail of policies, procedures, etc. Provides a means of communicating the board’s views/expectations on risk Proprietary and Confidential © 2009 Towers Perrin Not for use or disclosure outside Towers Perrin and its clients 11
  • 12. Definitions Risk appetite is… Total risk exposure organization will undertake to achieve its objectives Generally expressed in qualitative terms that reflect policyholder and shareholder considerations Set and endorsed by the board through discussions with management Corporate risk tolerance is… Amount of risk an organization is willing to accept in aggregate (or occasionally within a specific business unit or risk category) Expressed in quantitative terms that can be monitored Risk limits are… The more granular tolerance levels expressed for specific products, business lines or risk categories used to monitor the organization’s risk exposure Proprietary and Confidential © 2009 Towers Perrin Not for use or disclosure outside Towers Perrin and its clients 12
  • 13. The risk appetite statement provides guidance for a variety of key stakeholders 1. Policyholders, Bondholders…and Regulators, Rating Agencies Focus on strategies to prevent default Little or no interest in upside from risk taking or nature of risks 2. Shareholders and Analysts Focus on return on capital above the price of risk Don’t like surprises Interested in upside from risk taking; want thorough understanding of nature and distribution of risks 3. Management and Employees Need guidance regarding risk limits Proprietary and Confidential © 2009 Towers Perrin Not for use or disclosure outside Towers Perrin and its clients 13
  • 14. Risk appetite is not captured by any one measure due to the varied characteristics of underlying risk events Risk Appetite Key risk measures Other risk Profit Required Return on constraints volatility capital capital S/h focus P/h focus S/h focus Risk management processes, policies and procedures Proprietary and Confidential © 2009 Towers Perrin Not for use or disclosure outside Towers Perrin and its clients 14
  • 15. Establishing risk appetite and setting risk tolerances are integral to better risk-based decisions ERM Framework Organization Governance Accountability: Roles and Strategy Responsibilities Output Goals and objectives Risk Appetite Tools from Risk Process Appetite Corporate Risk Tolerance Process Identify Quantify Solve Execute Monitoring and Reporting Board reviews actual overall risk vs. established corporate risk tolerance Business units monitor aggregate risks against defined risk limits Proprietary and Confidential © 2009 Towers Perrin Not for use or disclosure outside Towers Perrin and its clients 15
  • 16. Summary of risk appetite best practices Risk appetite articulated explicitly and calibrated to company’s targeted financial performance indicators Management engages board in discussion about risk appetite (qualitative) and corporate risk tolerances (quantitative) Risk profiles for business units and enterprise consider stress events to ensure company can withstand unexpected events Risk limits for individual business activities established like overall risk appetite —quantitative, bottom-up aggregation Compliance with corporate risk tolerances and risk limits is monitored and reported Proprietary and Confidential © 2009 Towers Perrin Not for use or disclosure outside Towers Perrin and its clients 16
  • 17. Risk Appetite Eric Gesick Chief Actuarial Officer July 14, 2009
  • 18. Risk Appetite July 14, 2009 18 Importance of a Stated Risk Appetite Clients, shareholders, employees and regulators need to know how much risk you are willing to take, not just how much you actually take Key to governance: Set of principles and policies that guide behavior for all risks Limit, accumulation and exposure management Necessary to determine required capital Alignment of risk and return objectives
  • 19. Risk Appetite July 14, 2009 19 Basis of Measurement – Economic Framework Quantitative aspect focuses on assumed risks Economic balance sheet drives our thinking GAAP and regulatory models provide additional constraints when reviewing capitalization Downside measure Impairment to economic balance sheet Not earnings volatility Risk attitudes can be described by associating probabilities of loss with tolerance of economic capital loss Once a maximum risk tolerance is determined, we can translate into a guideline for actions on specific risks Determine required capital range
  • 20. Risk Appetite July 14, 2009 20 PartnerRe: Evolution of Stated Risk Appetite Focus on the three reinsurance “killers” or “shock losses” Catastrophe Loss trends/inflation (casualty) Equity market risk Define the metric Catastrophe = annual aggregate loss, all zones all perils Loss trends/inflation = prior year casualty loss ratio deterioration Equity market risk = stock market drop over one year period
  • 21. Risk Appetite July 14, 2009 21 PartnerRe: Evolution of Stated Risk Appetite Return goals are easy to state, risk goals are more difficult Risk tolerance is informed by return goals Risk appetite and return goals need to be aligned We asked the board the following: How much economic capital are you willing to lose for each shock loss? Focus on unlikely and remote events for specific risks Unlikely = 1-in-15 year event Remote = 1-in-75 year event Difficult to relate to a 1-in-100 or 1-in-250 due to model error and context
  • 22. Risk Appetite July 14, 2009 22 PartnerRe: Evolution of Stated Risk Appetite There is no right answer Survey of Board in role of representatives of shareholder interests Need a context: scenario testing from prior known events or “what if” scenarios Repeat of the 1929 – 1933 bear market and equity portfolio sizes Hurricane Andrew and various aggregation assumptions Early 2000’s prior year casualty development and premium volumes Considerations Perception and credibility of Company: how would clients/shareholders view a loss from each specific risk Ability to recover and trade through a shock loss
  • 23. Risk Appetite July 14, 2009 23 PartnerRe Risk Appetite 1-in-15 year event 1-in-75 year event Q1 2009 Q1 2009 Risk Modeled Risk Modeled Appetite Loss Appetite Loss Catastrophe (incl. ILS) 12% 7% 24% 20% Casualty 12% 9% 18% 12% Equity and Equity Like 15% 4% 18% 6% Stated as a percent of Economic Capital Where you are within your risk appetite is informed by the expected return outlook
  • 24. Risk Appetite July 14, 2009 24 PartnerRe: Extension of Risk Appetite to Risk Limits Consistent with and derived from risk appetite Non-modeled metrics that are observable, can be directly measured, and are easily actionable Aggregation of limits Casualty premium Market value of equities Limits Shock losses set by board Executive and business unit management define more specific limits by risk within underwriting authorities and guidelines
  • 25. Risk Appetite July 14, 2009 25 PartnerRe Risk Limits Risk Metric Aggregate Limit % of Total Capital Max. aggregate exposure in any single zone $1.5 billion 31% on any single peril Actual Risk Dash Board: Current level of Catastrophe exposure $1.5 billion Limit $1.5 billion Risk Metric $billions Earned premium limit for casualty and other long-tail lines $3.8 for the 4 most recent underwriting periods Actual 4-year aggregate long-tail premiums earned 23% as % of all premiums earned in same period Risk Dashboard: Current level of 4-year aggregate long-tail earned premiums Actual $2.7 billion Limit $3.8 billion Based on exposure as at March 31, 2009
  • 26. Risk Appetite July 14, 2009 26 Equity Investment Risk Limit Risk Metric Absolute Limit % Total Capital Maximum investment in equity and $2.4 billion 50% equity-like assets Current investments in equity and $0.8 billion 17% equity-like assets Risk Dashboard: Current level of equity and equity-like exposure Actual $0.8 billion Limit $2.4 billion Based on exposure as at at March 31, 2009
  • 27. Risk Appetite July 14, 2009 27 PartnerRe: Desired Capital Range Modeled loss for all risks in extreme tail Additional consideration based on judgment regarding known but non-modeled loss Scenario testing and “what if’s” to put in context The Question: How much of your capital are you willing to lose if multiple tail events occur in one year? Diversification becomes an important element to consider and is a key risk management tool
  • 28. Risk Appetite July 14, 2009 28 Desired Capital and Capital Management Desired Economic Capital Range Capital Capital Coverage At Risk Ratio Economic Capital 1-in-100 1-in-250 Return Period
  • 29. Risk Appetite July 14, 2009 29 Risk Appetite: Conclusion Board engagement is required Credibility Stated risk appetite and proven ability to manage exposures to within the appetite Transparency and communication are important so clients and shareholders can make their own assessments Qualitative and Quantitative Assessment Without a risk appetite, it is difficult to put a return goal into context Optimize risk/return within risk appetite and risk limits
  • 30. Illustrative case study © 2009 Towers Perrin 30
  • 31. There is an implied “contract” between the board and management on risk and return Board of Directors Management Sets/approves overall risk Develops business strategy, appetite and corporate risk sets financial targets (e.g., tolerance that align with growth, earnings, ROE) stakeholder expectations* Determines overall Approves capital plan “Risk (economic) capital needs and Contract” performs capital budgeting Ensures appropriate corporate risk governance Allocates capital Manages business to achieve results according to detailed business plans and agreed risk tolerances/ limits Proprietary and Confidential © 2009 Towers Perrin Not for use or disclosure outside Towers Perrin and its clients 31
  • 32. More granular expectations can be defined once the board and management agree on overall objectives Risk Appetite Board/CEO Risk Tolerance Statements C-Suite Risk Limit Risk Limit Risk Limit BU Leaders Risk Limit Risk Limit Risk Limit Etc. Proprietary and Confidential © 2009 Towers Perrin Not for use or disclosure outside Towers Perrin and its clients 32
  • 33. Client background Board composed of individuals from varied backgrounds and different industries Lacked common definition or understanding of “risk” No common perspective on amount of risk company was currently accepting No common perspective on amount of risk company should be willing to accept No risk appetite or risk tolerance statements in place Proprietary and Confidential © 2009 Towers Perrin Not for use or disclosure outside Towers Perrin and its clients 33
  • 34. Client objectives Establish a common foundation/understanding and vocabulary for discussions of risk between the board and senior management (and the entire organization) Develop preliminary risk appetite and risk tolerance statements Informed by relevant industry and client information and benchmarks Create an approach to validating and refining the preliminary risk appetite/tolerance statements Proprietary and Confidential © 2009 Towers Perrin Not for use or disclosure outside Towers Perrin and its clients 34
  • 35. Risk appetite was defined using a combination of qualitative and quantitative inputs Approach to Defining Client’s Risk Appetite/Risk Tolerance Qualitative Quantitative Inputs Client’s Mission, Vision, & Values Phase 1 Management and BOD Preliminary Risk Perspectives Appetite/Tolerance Industry/Client Historical Reference Points Client’s Risk Modeling and Sensitivity Testing Phase 2 Regulatory/Rating Revised Risk Agency Thresholds Appetite/Tolerance Board Review and Input Proprietary and Confidential © 2009 Towers Perrin Not for use or disclosure outside Towers Perrin and its clients 35
  • 36. The initial phase aimed at establishing a common understanding and risk vocabulary Board and management perspectives on risk were captured through confidential individual interviews The objective was to determine how much uniformity there is in the perspectives of board members and senior management We asked a common set of questions to each participant Results were compiled and presented to the board and management Individual responses remained anonymous Proprietary and Confidential © 2009 Towers Perrin Not for use or disclosure outside Towers Perrin and its clients 36
  • 37. For example, we asked each participant about their willingness to sustain various levels of surplus declines… Tolerance for Loss of Surplus Tolerable Annual Probability 1-in-2 50% Maximum 40% Management Average Outlier responses Board Average 1-in-3 Overall Average 30% 30% Minimum 1-in-X-Year Event 1-in-4 Equivalent 1-in-5 20% 18% Strong 14% Nearly all interviewees 11% stated that this should 1-in-10 10% Consensus 7% never happen. 7% 1-in-20 5% 3% 2% 2% 0% 0% 0% 10% Loss of Surplus 20% Loss of Surplus 50% Loss of Surplus Scenario Proprietary and Confidential © 2009 Towers Perrin Not for use or disclosure outside Towers Perrin and its clients 37
  • 38. …and compared responses to the historical experience for both the industry and client Comparison of Client's Tolerance for Surplus Losses to Historical Experience Probability 1-in-5 20% 16% 1-in-7 15% 1-in-X-Year Event Equivalent 11% 1-in-10 10% 8% 1-in-20 5% 5% 0% 0% 10% loss 20% loss 50% loss U.S. P/C Industry Client of surplus of surplus of surplus (1946 – 2008) (19XX – 2008) Client Interviewee Historical Benchmarks — Tolerance (Average) Frequency of Surplus Loss Proprietary and Confidential © 2009 Towers Perrin Not for use or disclosure outside Towers Perrin and its clients 38
  • 39. Some questions were aimed at comparing the perceived current and desired risk appetites Client’s Risk Appetite Number of Current Number of Desired Responses Responses 7 Management 7 Management 6 6 2 Board member Board member 5 2 5 4 4 1 3 3 2 3 1 5 2 4 2 3 1 2 1 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 (Low) Risk Appetite (High) (Low) Risk Appetite (High) Average Scores Current Desired Management 4.1 5.6 Board 3.1 4.8 Proprietary and Confidential © 2009 Towers Perrin Not for use or disclosure outside Towers Perrin and its clients 39
  • 40. This interview/feedback approach laid the foundation for developing a risk appetite statement Consistent vocabulary created among all board and management participants Process helped drive a more consistent appetite for risk between and among the board and management More realistic expectations Interview process created non-threatening environment to facilitate learning and understanding Preliminary risk appetite statement was drafted Proprietary and Confidential © 2009 Towers Perrin Not for use or disclosure outside Towers Perrin and its clients 40
  • 41. This interview/feedback approach also elevated the level of discussion and decision making about risk In subsequent phases of the project: Economic capital modeling was completed — Results were compared with the preliminary risk tolerances; some incompatibility was observed Preliminary risk appetite statement was refined Plan was developed to bring company into line with its newly agreed upon and stated risk appetite and risk tolerances Additional work is under way: Risk monitoring and reporting process are being established Risk limits are being established Risk modeling is being refined Proprietary and Confidential © 2009 Towers Perrin Not for use or disclosure outside Towers Perrin and its clients 41
  • 42. Q&A
  • 43. Q&A Linda Chase-Jenkins, Towers Perrin (212) 309-3897 Linda.chase-jenkins@towersperrin.com Eric Gesick, PartnerRe (441) 294-5291 Eric.gesick@partnerre.com Joe Lebens, Towers Perrin (860) 843-7056 Joe.lebens@towersperrin.com Proprietary and Confidential © 2009 Towers Perrin Not for use or disclosure outside Towers Perrin and its clients 43