2015-2016 continuing coverage of Globalstar Inc.(NYSE:GSAT), for publication and presentation at the 2016 Burkenroad investment conference.
Authors: Thaddeus Pinakiewicz, Ana Maria Hernandez, Natalie Yanko, Silvana Gomez Fajardo
Falcon's Invoice Discounting: Your Path to Prosperity
Globalstar 2015-2016 Burkenroad Report
1. November 6, 2015
GLOBALSTAR INCORPORATED
GSAT/NYSE
Continuing Coverage:
Globalstar: The FCC Won’t Let Me Be!
Investment Rating: Market Outperform
PRICE: $ 2.10 S&P 500: 2,099.20 DJIA: 17,910.33 RUSSELL 2000: 1,199.75
Global expansion will increase subscriber base with little fixed cost and
reduce dependence on North America
Ground infrastructure to support the second‐generation satellites will
enable full use of capabilities
High levels of debt and contractual obligations represent a liquidity concern
for the Company
Pending regulatory approval of the existing downlink S‐Band for Terrestrial
Low Power Services will determine if the Company will have a new source of
revenue
Our 12‐month target price is $2.60
Valuation 2014 A 2015 E 2016 E
EPS* $ (0.50) $ 0.07 $ (0.10)
P/E NM 30.5x NM
CFPS $ 0.00 $ (0.01) $ (0.01)
P/CFPS 1437.5x NM NM
* Excluding non‐recurring items
Market Capitalization Stock Data
Equity Market Cap (MM): $ 2,179 52‐Week Range: $1.45 ‐ $3.58
Enterprise Value (MM): $ 2,790 12‐Month Stock Performance: ‐19.85%
Shares Outstanding (MM): 1,038 Dividend Yield: 0.00%
Estimated Float (MM): 414 Book Value Per Share: $ 0.25
6‐Mo. Avg. Daily Volume: 1,895,780 Beta: 1.38
Company Quick View:
Here it’s all about LEO (low earth orbit) satellites. From its headquarters on the north
shore of Lake Ponchartrain, Globalstar provides mobile voice and data services in more
than 120 countries. Globalstar Inc., headquartered in Covington, Louisiana, is a satellite
telecommunication provider delivering voice and data services to remote areas
underserved by traditional phone and Internet coverage. The Company operates a
network of low orbit satellites and ground stations, serving more than 580,000
subscribers worldwide by focusing on the Americas and Europe. Customers include the
U.S. government and companies in the maritime, energy, and mining industries.
Globalstar also sells handheld satellite phones and GPS tracking devices, targeting
adventure travelers and commercial clients.
Company Website: www.globalstar.com
Analysts: Investment Research Manager:
Silvana Gomez Jed Vorhoff
Natalie Yanko
Thaddeus Pinakiewicz
Ana Hernandez
The BURKENROAD REPORTS are produced solely as a part of an educational program of Tulane University's
Freeman School of Business. The reports are not investment advice and you should not and may not rely on
them in making any investment decision. You should consult an investment professional and/or conduct your
own primary research regarding any potential investment.
Wall Street's Farm Team
BURKENROADREPORTS
5. Globalstar Incorporated (GSAT) BURKENROAD REPORTS (www.burkenroad.org) November 6, 2015
5
Megahertz‐Population Valuation Method
Satellite service companies like Globalstar often use the megahertz‐population (MHz‐POP)
approach to valuate spectrum. The market prices spectrum in terms of MHz‐POP, which is the
company’s spectrum width in megahertz (MHz) multiplied by the population covered in a
specific service area.
′
The enterprise value of the company is determined by multiplying its MHz‐POP measure times
the spectrum’s price per MHz‐POP.
Adding cash and subtracting debt to the company’s enterprise value calculates its equity
value. Expected price per share, or equity value per share, results from dividing the equity
value by the shares outstanding.
To replicate this valuation method and determine a share price for Globalstar, we established
two base assumptions: a spectrum of 22 MHz, which is the currently unlicensed Terrestrial
Low Power Service (TLPS) spectrum, and 318 million of covered population in the U.S.
Additionally, we set a price range for the spectrum within a $0.20 per MHz‐POP low and a
$0.90 high, considering previous effective bids on similar spectrum bands and holding a
conservative approach. However, because we believe that the FCC will rule in favor of
Globalstar more likely than not, we assigned the higher end prices a greater weight in the
weighted average calculation for the final expected price per share, and disregarded the two
cases in the middle section. Table 2 summarizes the data used to calculate the $2.60 target
price.
Table 2: MHz‐POP Valuation for Globalstar
Price
(p/MHz
‐POP)
MHz‐
POP
Enterprise
Value
($MM)
Cash
($MM)
Debt
($MM)
Equity
Value
Per
Share
Weight
(%)
Weighted
EV per
Share
Average
Final
Price
0.90 6,996 6,296 28 (638) $5.14
75
$3.86
$ 3.40
$ 2.60
0.80 6,996 5,597 28 (638) $4.51 $3.38
0.70 6,996 4,897 28 (638) $3.88 $2.91
0.60 6,996 4,198 28 (638) $3.25
‐
‐
0.50 6,996 3,498 28 (638) $2.61 ‐
0.40 6,996 2,798 28 (638) $1.98
25
$0.49
$ 0.30 0.30 6,996 2,099 28 (638) $1.35 $0.34
0.20 6,996 1,399 28 (638) $0.71 $0.18
Source: Burkenroad Analysis November 6, 2015
10. Globalstar Incorporated (GSAT) BURKENROAD REPORTS (www.burkenroad.org) November 6, 2015
10
Figure 3: Globalstar Service Areas
Dark shading Primary service area Strong Signal
Medium shading Extended Service Area Customers may experience weaker signal
Light shading Fringe service area Customers should experience weakest signal
Source: Globalstar Inc. September 11, 2015
Products
Globalstar has two primary service lines: Simplex and Duplex. Simplex is a one‐way data
service that transmits information from a Simplex‐enabled device over the Globalstar
network. This line is primarily used for communication of cargo locations, utility meter levels,
and other pertinent measurements within governmental agencies and the military. A large
component of the Simplex technology is the SPOT product line. Combining one‐way
technology with GPS features, SPOT targets customers that require emergency location and
messaging services outside traditionally covered areas. Duplex is a two‐way data service that
uses both mobile and fixed devices in order to establish more sophisticated communication
between two locations. Regarding the contribution of each segment to total revenues, the
SPOT product line accounts for approximately 40% of Globalstar’s total revenue. Simplex
(excluding SPOT) and Duplex lines account for approximately 17% and 37% of total revenue
respectively. The remaining 6% of revenue is derived from other less significant sources of
income for the Company.
Strategy
Globalstar’s strategy is centered on providing telecommunication opportunities for
underserviced regions of the world. The goal is to provide service levels and call success rates
equal to or better than its Mobile Satellite Services (MSS) competitors for a cheaper price.
Globalstar formed a second‐generation constellation of LEO satellites in 2013, expanding and
modernizing the Duplex system architecture. A current initiative to upgrade the ground
stations, allowing for the development of mass‐marketable and consumer‐friendly high‐speed
products, is scheduled for completion by 2016.
14. Globalstar Incorporated (GSAT) BURKENROAD REPORTS (www.burkenroad.org) November 6, 2015
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Table 4: Number of Satellites and Type of Orbit
Company
Number of
satellites in orbit
Geo‐
stationary
Low earth
orbit (LEO)
Inmarstat PLC 11 X
Iridium Communication Inc. 66 X
Intelsat S.A. 50 X
EchoStar Corp. 24 X
ViaSat Inc. 25 X
Globalstar 32 X
Sources: Inmarsat; Iridium Communications; Intelsat; EchoStar; ViaSat; Globalstar Inc.
September 30, 2015
MANAGEMENT PERFORMANCE AND BACKGROUND
Globalstar’s top management team is comprised of experts in a variety of fields, including
engineering, finance, law, sales, and accounting. The following seven individuals, along with
the Board of Directors, make up the Company’s Corporate Governance.
A company’s return on invested capital (ROIC), allows investors to evaluate how well
management generates returns as a percentage of investment. It provides valuable insights
in regards to efficiency of capital use and competitive positioning within the industry. As
shown in Table 5, Globalstar’s ROIC during the last five years has been well below that of its
peers, indicating unattractive results as negative ROIC indicates capital value destruction.
Table 5: Return on Invested Capital
Company Ticker
2015
(as of 6/30)
2014 2013 2012 2011
Inmarstat Plc ISAT.L 9.27% 13.75% 4.74% 10.16% 13.38%
Iridium
Communication Inc.
IRDM 4.86% 4.20% 4.03% 6.07% 6.25%
Intelsat S.A. I 7.50% 8.13% 7.55% 7.26% 7.14%
EchoStar Corp. SATS 5.50% 6.60% (0.26%) 2.72% 0.43%
ViaSat Inc. VSAT 1.46% 3.67 0.06% (0.69%) (0.23%)
Globalstar GSAT (9.81%) (13.07%) (8.75%) (7.68%) (6.05%)
Source: Gurufocus October 7,2015
James “Jay” Monroe, III
Executive Chairman of the Board of Directors and Chief Executive Officer
James “Jay” Monroe, III has served as Chairman of the Board of Directors since Globalstar
was purchased by Thermo Companies in 2004, and he has been the Chief Executive Officer
(CEO) since July 2011. He previously served as CEO from 2005 to 2009. He has been the
majority owner of Thermo since it’s founding in 1984. Mr. Monroe is a graduate of Tulane
University.
25. Globalstar Incorporated (GSAT) BURKENROAD REPORTS (www.burkenroad.org) November 6, 2015
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ANOTHER WAY TO LOOK AT IT
ALTMAN Z‐SCORE
The Z‐Score was first introduced by New York University’s Professor Edward Altman in 1967,
and is a formula that estimates the likelihood of a publicly‐traded company to file for
bankruptcy within the next few years. Companies are classified into one of three categories:
safe zone, grey zone or distress zone. The score is based upon five financial ratios and is
calculated according to the following formula:
1.2 1.4 3.3 .6 4 1 5
Where:
= Working capital to total assets
= Retained earnings to total assets
= Earnings before interest and T=taxes (EBIT) to total assets
= Market value of equity to book value of total liabilities
= Sales to total assets
The company is in the safe zone if it has a Z‐score of 2.99 or higher, in the grey zone if it scores
between 1.8 and 2.99, and in the distress zone if it scores below 1.8. Companies with lower Z‐
scores have greater risk of bankruptcy.
Table 9 shows the historical Z‐scores for Globalstar. The Company has consistently been in
Altman’s distress zone, which links it to a high risk of bankruptcy. The formula was originally
developed to analyze asset‐heavy manufacturing companies, however, and it might not
accurately assess Globalstar’s bankruptcy risk.
Table 9: Historical Z‐Scores for Globalstar
Year 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Z‐score (0.25) (0.09) (0.25) (1.04) (1.89) (1.45)
Zone
Distress
Zone
Distress
Zone
Distress
Zone
Distress
Zone
Distress
Zone
Distress
Zone
Source: Burkenroad Reports Analysis
27. Globalstar Incorporated (GSAT) BURKENROAD REPORTS (www.burkenroad.org) November 6, 2015
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WWBD?
What Would Ben (Graham) Do?
Ben Graham, known by many as the father of value investing, developed a list of eight
“hurdles” that evaluate the potential of investing in a selected stock. The first six hurdles on
his list provide insight into the value of the company, while the last two hurdles test its
growth potential. Mr. Graham would consider a stock to be an attractive investment if it
passes at least four of the following eight hurdles
1. An earnings to price yield of two‐times the yield on the ten‐year Treasury
2. A P/E ratio down to one‐half of the stock’s highest in five years
3. A dividend yield of one‐half the yield on the ten‐year Treasury
4. A stock price less than 1.5‐times the book value
5. A total debt less than book value
6. A current ratio of two or more
7. An earnings growth rate of 7% or higher over past five years
8. A stable growth in earnings
Globalstar currently only passes the first hurdle on the list by having an earnings to price
yield of 7.51%, which is higher than two‐times the yield on the ten‐year Treasury. The tests
for all eight hurdles are shown in Figure 5. As a result, Ben Graham would not consider
investing in this stock.
Figure 5: Ben Graham Analysis
28. Globalstar Incorporated (GSAT) BURKENROAD REPORTS (www.burkenroad.org) November 6, 2015
28
Earnings per share (ttm) 0.16$ Price: 2.10$
Earnings to Price Yield 7.51%
10 Year Treasury (2X) 4.68%
P/E ratio as of 12/31/14 (5.6)
P/E ratio as of 12/31/13 (1.8)
P/E ratio as of 12/31/12 (1.1)
P/E ratio as of 12/31/11 (3.0)
P/E ratio as of 12/31/10 (4.3)
Current P/E Ratio 13.3
Dividends per share (ttm) ‐$ Price: 2.10$
Dividend Yield 0.00%
1/2 Yield on 10 Year Treasury 1.17%
Stock Price 2.10$
Book Value per share as of 9/30/15 0.26$
150% of book Value per share as of 9/30/15 0.38$
Interest‐bearing debt as of 9/30/15 638,479$
Book value as of 9/30/15 263,075$
Current assets as of 9/30/15 59,823$
Current liabilities as of 9/30/15 103,648$
Current ratio as of 9/30/15 0.6
EPS for year ended 12/31/10 (0.34)$
EPS for year ended 12/31/11 (0.18)$
EPS for year ended 12/31/12 (0.29)$
EPS for year ended 12/31/13 (0.96)$
EPS for year ended 12/31/14 (0.50)$
EPS for year ended 12/31/10 (0.34)$
EPS for year ended 12/31/11 (0.18)$ ‐47%
EPS for year ended 12/31/12 (0.29)$ 61%
EPS for year ended 12/31/13 (0.96)$ 231%
EPS for year ended 12/31/14 (0.50)$ ‐48%
Stock price data as of November 6, 2015
No
Hurdle # 3: A Dividend Yield of 1/2 the Yield on 10 Year Treasury
No
Hurdle # 4: A Stock Price less than 1.5 BV
No
Hurdle # 5: Total Debt less than Book Value
No
Hurdle # 6: Current Ratio of Two or More
No
Hurdle # 7: Earnings Growth of 7% or Higher over past 5 years
No
Hurdle # 8: Stability in Growth of Earnings
No
GLOBALSTAR (NYSE: GSAT)
Ben Graham Analysis
Hurdle # 1: An Earnings to Price Yield of 2X the Yield on 10 Year Treasury
Yes
Hurdle # 2: A P/E Ratio Down to 1/2 of the Stocks Highest in 5 Yrs