IntroductionThis analysis examines the historical and forecast performance for Roche in the prescription pharmaceutical sector. The profile encompasses global company strategy, portfolio and pipeline analysis and assessment of financial performance, with 1-6 year sales forecasts for key drugs. An interactive forecasting and analysis tool provides continually updated quantitative and qualitative information.ScopeHighlightsReasons to PurchaseBenchmark Roche's performance against key rivals in the prescription pharmaceutical sectorAssess the impact of Roche's full corporate acquisition of US biotech partner Genentech which completed earlier this yearLearn how the company's three key monoclonal antibodies: MabThera/Rituxan, Herceptin and Avastin, will account for over 80% of sales growth to 2015

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F. Hoffmann-La Roche Ltd.: PharmaVitae Profile
Published on July 2010
Report Summary
Introduction
This analysis examines the historical and forecast performance for Roche in the prescription pharmaceutical sector. The profile
encompasses global company strategy, portfolio and pipeline analysis and assessment of financial performance, with 1-6 year sales
forecasts for key drugs. An interactive forecasting and analysis tool provides continually updated quantitative and qualitative
information.
Scope
Highlights
Reasons to Purchase
Benchmark Roche's performance against key rivals in the prescription pharmaceutical sectorAssess the impact of Roche's full
corporate acquisition of US biotech partner Genentech which completed earlier this yearLearn how the company's three key
monoclonal antibodies: MabThera/Rituxan, Herceptin and Avastin, will account for over 80% of sales growth to 2015
Table of Content
ABOUT DATAMONITOR HEALTHCARE 2
About the PharmaVitae team 2
Chapter 1 About this profile 3
PharmaVitae Explorer database 3
Chapter structure 3
Executive summary 3
Quarterly update 3
Company introduction 3
Company sales 4
Company financials 4
Key products 4
Data sourcing 4
Sales data 4
Analyst consensus 4
Chapter 2 Executive summary 5
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Key findings 5
Prescription pharmaceutical sales and growth rate performance, 2003-15 6
Financial performance, 2003-15 7
Roche: PharmaVitae forecasts at a glance 8
Strategic insight 9
A defining moment: Roche's merger with Genentech, a precursor to full acquisition 9
Sales source analysis 2003-15 9
Reliance on the big three 14
SWOT analysis 16
Strengths 16
Weaknesses 17
Opportunities 18
Threats 19
Table of Contents 21
Table of figures 23
Chapter 3 Quarterly news update 24
Latest quarterly sales 24
Latest comment 24
Q1 2010 24
Roche: novel Herceptin formulation promises greater convenience 24
Q4 2009 25
Roche: NICE's hesitation is a setback for RoActemra 25
Genentech/Roche: UK's NICE remains negative over Avastin for colorectal cancer 26
Genentech/Roche: another boost for blockbuster Avastin 27
Roche: RoActemra launches in UK despite NICE's unfavorable initial opinion 28
Q3 2009 29
Roche/Genentech: encouraging data point to Avastin potential in melanoma 29
Genentech/Roche/Chugai: Avastin gets FDA go-ahead for kidney cancer 30
Q2 2009 31
Genentech/Roche: Avastin adds fifth indication to label 31
Q1 2009 32
Genentech/Roche/Chugai: Herceptin shows activity in gastric cancer 32
Genentech/Roche/Biogen Idec: Rituxan receives EU boost 32
Latest prescription pharma product news 33
Q1 2010 33
Q4 2009 34
Q3 2009 34
Q2 2009 35
Q2 2009 35
Latest corporate news 36
Q4 2009 36
Q3 2009 36
Q1 2009 36
Future product milestones 38
Chapter 4 Company introduction 40
Key findings 40
Background 41
Key corporate developments 41
Pharmaceuticals division 41
Genentech 41
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Chugai 42
Diagnostics division 42
Divestments 43
M&A history 43
M&A strategy 43
Genentech 44
Overview 44
'Locking in' mAb expertise 45
Product licensing agreement 45
US sales consolidation 45
Move to acquire remaining shares in Genentech 46
Renewed bid by Roche accepted by Genentech 46
Chugai 46
Japanese position strengthened 46
Non-integrative merger 47
Boost to Chugai pipeline... 47
...and a boost to Roche's pipeline 47
Large-scale M&A 47
Recent small-scale M&A 48
454 Life Sciences 48
Therapeutic Human Polyclonals (THP) 48
BioVeris 48
NimbleGen 48
Alnylam 49
Mirus Bio Corporation 49
ARIUS 49
Memory Pharmaceuticals 49
Innovatis AG 49
Chapter 5 Company sales 50
Key findings 50
Prescription pharmaceutical sales and growth rate analysis, 2003-15 51
Product analysis 53
Product analysis, 2003-09 54
Product analysis, 2009-15 57
Therapy area analysis 62
Geographic analysis 65
Launch/core/expiry analysis 67
Explanation of launch/core/expiry analysis 67
Launch analysis, 2009-15 68
Core analysis, 2009-15 70
Expiry analysis, 2009-15 71
Launch/core/expiry configuration, 2009-15 72
Molecule type analysis 74
Externalization analysis 76
Chapter 6 Company financials 78
Key findings 78
Reconciliation between PharmaVitae-formatted prescription pharma sales and company-reported total sales, 2003-09 79
Operating costs and profit analysis 80
Operating costs and profit analysis, 2003-09 81
Operating cost ratio and profit margin analysis, 2003-09 82
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Operating cost ratio and profit margin analysis, 2009-15 83
Operating costs and profit analysis, 2009-15 84
Chapter 7 Key products 85
Overview 85
Avastin 86
Summary 88
Sales forecast 88
Herceptin 89
Summary 91
Sales forecast 91
MabThera 92
Summary 94
Sales forecast 94
Actemra 95
Delay to launch in the US 95
Large Phase III program and excellent clinical efficacy enable Actemra to compete with Rituxan and Orencia, but also at first-line 96
Product positioning 96
Future performance 96
Summary 98
Sales forecast 98
Tarceva 99
Summary 100
Sales forecast 101
Mircera 102
Summary 103
Sales forecast 103
Tamiflu 104
Summary 106
Sales forecast 106
CellCept 107
Summary 108
Sales forecast 108
NeoRecormon 109
Summary 111
Sales forecast 111
Chapter 8 Appendix 112
References 112
Abbreviations 112
Exchange rates 114
About Datamonitor 115
About Datamonitor Healthcare 115
Datamonitor consulting 115
Disclaimer 117
List of Tables
Table 1: Roche - PharmaVitae forecasts at a glance 8
Table 2: Product portfolio sales by source company, 2003-15 ($m) 10
Table 3: Roche quarterly sales ($m), Q408-Q409 24
Table 4: Roche future product milestones, 2010-12 38
Table 5: Roche product portfolio overview ($m), 2003-09 54
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Table 6: Roche product portfolio overview ($m), 2009-15 57
Table 7: Roche prescription pharmaceutical sales by therapy area ($m), 2009-15 63
Table 8: Roche prescription pharmaceutical sales by geographic region ($m), 2009-15 66
Table 9: Roche launch portfolio overview ($m), 2009-15 68
Table 10: Roche core portfolio overview ($m), 2009-15 70
Table 11: Roche expiry portfolio overview ($m), 2009-15 71
Table 12: Roche prescription pharmaceutical sales by molecule type ($m), 2009-15 75
Table 13: Roche prescription pharmaceutical sales by source ($m), 2009-15 77
Table 14: Total Roche sales by business unit ($m), 2002-08 79
Table 15: Roche operating revenue/cost analysis ($m), 2003-09 81
Table 16: Roche operating cost ratio analysis (% of total revenues), 2002-08 82
Table 17: Roche operating cost ratio analysis (% of total revenues), 2008-14 83
Table 18: Roche operating revenue/cost analysis ($m), 2009-15 84
Table 19: Roche Key products overview 85
Table 20: Avastin: overview 88
Table 21: Avastin: sales forecast ($m), 2009-15 88
Table 22: Herceptin: overview 91
Table 23: Herceptin: sales forecast ($m), 2009-15 91
Table 24: MabThera/Rituxan: overview 94
Table 25: MabThera: sales forecast ($m), 2009-15 94
Table 26: Actemra: overview 98
Table 27: Actemra: sales forecast ($m), 2009-15 98
Table 28: Tarceva: overview 100
Table 29: Tarceva: sales forecast ($m), 2009-15 101
Table 30: Mircera: overview 103
Table 31: Mircera: sales forecast ($m), 2009-15 103
Table 32: Tamiflu: overview 106
Table 33: Tamiflu: sales forecast ($m), 2009-15 106
Table 34: CellCept: overview 108
Table 35: CellCept: sales forecast ($m), 2009-15 108
Table 36: NeoRecormon: overview 111
Table 37: NeoRecormon: sales forecast ($m), 2009-15 111
Table 38: Exchange rates, 2010 114
List of Figures
Figure 1: The PharmaVitae Explorer 3
Figure 2: Roche prescription pharmaceutical performance, sales ($m) and growth rate (%), 2003-15 6
Figure 3: Roche's financial performance ($m), 2003-15 7
Figure 4: Total prescription pharmaceutical sales by source company ($m), 2003-15 12
Figure 5: Absolute sales growth by source company ($m), 2003-09 and 2009-15 13
Figure 6: Sales dependence of big three, other mAbs and rest of portfolio ($m), 2003-15 15
Figure 7: Roche SWOT analysis 16
Figure 8: Roche prescription pharmaceutical performance, sales ($m) and growth rate (%), 2003-15 51
Figure 9: Roche key product sales ($m), 2003-15 53
Figure 10: Roche key sales growth drivers and resistors ($m), 2003-09 55
Figure 11: Roche key sales growth drivers and resistors ($m), 2009-15 59
Figure 12: Roche prescription pharmaceutical sales by therapy area ($m), 2003-15 62
Figure 13: Roche prescription pharmaceutical sales by geographic region ($m), 2003-15 65
Figure 14: Roche launch/core/expiry configuration ($m), 2009-15 72
Figure 15: Roche prescription pharmaceutical sales by molecule type ($m), 2003-15 74
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Figure 16: Roche prescription pharmaceutical sales by source ($m), 2003-15 76
Figure 17: Roche operating revenue/cost analysis ($m), 2003-15 80
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