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Improving ideas
1
Idea evolution




                 paulshawsmith
                    scientific business strategy
Did you change or adapt your original idea?




                          No!
                                        Yes!




                   33%                             66%
                                                  paulshawsmith
                                                     scientific business strategy
Source: Bhide (2000)
Great Idea




             paulshawsmith
                scientific business strategy
Better Idea




Learn




        paulshawsmith
           scientific business strategy
Better Idea




        Learn


Learn



                              paulshawsmith
                                 scientific business strategy
Better Ide




                Learn

        Learn
        Learn


Learn




                        paulshawsmith
                           scientific business strategy
Success




                        Learn


                Learn

        Learn


Learn




                                paulshawsmith
                                   scientific business strategy
paulshawsmith
   scientific business strategy
Learn




        paulshawsmith
           scientific business strategy
Learn


Learn




                paulshawsmith
                   scientific business strategy
Learn

        Learn


Learn




                        paulshawsmith
                           scientific business strategy
Learn


                Learn

        Learn


Learn




                                paulshawsmith
                                   scientific business strategy
Success




                        Learn


                Learn

        Learn


Learn




                                paulshawsmith
                                   scientific business strategy
Yngve Bergvist
Evan Williams
Success




                 Idea 4   Learn    Idea 5



                 Learn

Idea 2   Learn   Idea 3



Learn


Idea 1


                                  paulshawsmith
                                     scientific business strategy
Key            Key
                               Activities     Partners



                      Key                                      Cost
                   Resources                                Structure




             Revenue
              Stream




            X                                             Product
                                                          Offering


   Test            Learn
                               Distribution    Customer
                                Channels       Segment

           Guess
Learn       1         Learn        2
Current BM            Improved BM            Improved BM

                                               Learn


    5         Learn        4         Learn        3
Improved BM           Improved BM            Improved BM


 Learn


    6         Learn        7        Learn        8

Improved BM           Improved BM            Improved BM
2
    Combining




                paulshawsmith
                   scientific business strategy
Great business ideas come from combining
AMAR BHIDE




     Crazy Quilt Principle:
Build a network of self-selected
           stakeholders




                          paulshawsmith
                             scientific business strategy
AMAR BHIDE




             paulshawsmith
                scientific business strategy
Larry &
  Sergey
(PageRank)
Urs
(New
code)


   Larry &
   Sergey
 (PageRank)
John Doerr
            (OKR)

 Urs
(New
code)


   Larry &
   Sergey
 (PageRank)
John Doerr
            (OKR)

 Urs
(New                     Jim Reese
code)                  (Tight server
                           farm)
   Larry &
   Sergey
 (PageRank)
John Doerr
            (OKR)

 Urs
(New                        Jim Reese
code)                     (Tight server
                              farm)
   Larry &
   Sergey                      Yahoo
 (PageRank)            (Billion page index)
crawler)
                                     (Faster
          John Doerr                 Yahoo
            (OKR)

 Urs
(New                        Jim Reese
code)                     (Tight server
                              farm)
   Larry &
   Sergey                      Yahoo
 (PageRank)            (Billion page index)
crawler)
                                     (Faster
          John Doerr                 Yahoo
            (OKR)

 Urs
(New                        Jim Reese
code)                     (Tight server
                              farm)
   Larry &                                     Overture
   Sergey                      Yahoo           (Auction
 (PageRank)            (Billion page index)    adverts)
crawler)
                                     (Faster
          John Doerr                 Yahoo
            (OKR)

 Urs
(New                        Jim Reese
code)                     (Tight server
                              farm)
   Larry &                                     Overture
   Sergey                      Yahoo           (Auction
 (PageRank)            (Billion page index)    adverts)
•   Search engine

                                         •   Page rank

                                         •   New code

                                         •   OKA

                                         •   Tight server farm

                                         •   Faster web crawler

                                         •   Billion page index

                                         •   Auction advert

                                         •   Corporate structure




The current day Goggle is a combination of great ideas
3
    Experimenting &
    testing




                paulshawsmith
                   scientific business strategy
*   It’s all about pilots,
    prototypes and
    creating new ways
    of doing things
*   It’s all about
    learning what
    works in the
    real world
Super
    innovators                              75 percentile




      Non
   innovators          39 percentile




                          Source: Dyer, Gregersen & Christensen (2011)



Experimenting skills
Suppliers
                  Potential
                                            Regulatory
                 Customers
                                              Bodies
      Industry
     Employees                                     Indirect
                                                 Competitors


     Industry
      Experts                                       Direct
                                                  Competitors

                 Lead                      Competitors
                 Users        Industry
                               Bodies




Talk to people who know the answer
Run experiments on Google Adwords
Run experiments on Facebook Ads
Test your business idea doing a PowerPoint pitch
Find a cheap way to pilot test your business
Learn from your experiments
Guess?            Guess?
Guess?              Guess?               Guess?




           Guess?            Guess?




         Guess?                 Guess?
Guess?
                 Guess?
                                     Test
                 Test
Guess?
                          Guess?            Guess?
 Test
                           Test              Test
                                   Guess?
                 Guess?
                                    Test
                  Test




        Guess?                     Guess?

         Test                       Test
In groups of 3 – 4:


  *    Discuss how you will turn your worst idea into a good
       idea

  *    Think idea evolution, combining, experimenting &
       testing


  *    Choose one member to present



  *    Explain how it went from a “bad” idea to a “good” idea




From a “bad” ideas to “good” ideas

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01.4 Improving ideas

  • 2. 1 Idea evolution paulshawsmith scientific business strategy
  • 3. Did you change or adapt your original idea? No! Yes! 33% 66% paulshawsmith scientific business strategy Source: Bhide (2000)
  • 4. Great Idea paulshawsmith scientific business strategy
  • 5. Better Idea Learn paulshawsmith scientific business strategy
  • 6. Better Idea Learn Learn paulshawsmith scientific business strategy
  • 7. Better Ide Learn Learn Learn Learn paulshawsmith scientific business strategy
  • 8. Success Learn Learn Learn Learn paulshawsmith scientific business strategy
  • 9. paulshawsmith scientific business strategy
  • 10. Learn paulshawsmith scientific business strategy
  • 11. Learn Learn paulshawsmith scientific business strategy
  • 12. Learn Learn Learn paulshawsmith scientific business strategy
  • 13. Learn Learn Learn Learn paulshawsmith scientific business strategy
  • 14. Success Learn Learn Learn Learn paulshawsmith scientific business strategy
  • 17. Success Idea 4 Learn Idea 5 Learn Idea 2 Learn Idea 3 Learn Idea 1 paulshawsmith scientific business strategy
  • 18. Key Key Activities Partners Key Cost Resources Structure Revenue Stream X Product Offering  Test Learn Distribution Customer Channels Segment Guess
  • 19. Learn 1 Learn 2 Current BM Improved BM Improved BM Learn 5 Learn 4 Learn 3 Improved BM Improved BM Improved BM Learn 6 Learn 7 Learn 8 Improved BM Improved BM Improved BM
  • 20. 2 Combining paulshawsmith scientific business strategy
  • 21. Great business ideas come from combining
  • 22. AMAR BHIDE Crazy Quilt Principle: Build a network of self-selected stakeholders paulshawsmith scientific business strategy
  • 23.
  • 24. AMAR BHIDE paulshawsmith scientific business strategy
  • 25. Larry & Sergey (PageRank)
  • 26. Urs (New code) Larry & Sergey (PageRank)
  • 27. John Doerr (OKR) Urs (New code) Larry & Sergey (PageRank)
  • 28. John Doerr (OKR) Urs (New Jim Reese code) (Tight server farm) Larry & Sergey (PageRank)
  • 29. John Doerr (OKR) Urs (New Jim Reese code) (Tight server farm) Larry & Sergey Yahoo (PageRank) (Billion page index)
  • 30. crawler) (Faster John Doerr Yahoo (OKR) Urs (New Jim Reese code) (Tight server farm) Larry & Sergey Yahoo (PageRank) (Billion page index)
  • 31. crawler) (Faster John Doerr Yahoo (OKR) Urs (New Jim Reese code) (Tight server farm) Larry & Overture Sergey Yahoo (Auction (PageRank) (Billion page index) adverts)
  • 32. crawler) (Faster John Doerr Yahoo (OKR) Urs (New Jim Reese code) (Tight server farm) Larry & Overture Sergey Yahoo (Auction (PageRank) (Billion page index) adverts)
  • 33. Search engine • Page rank • New code • OKA • Tight server farm • Faster web crawler • Billion page index • Auction advert • Corporate structure The current day Goggle is a combination of great ideas
  • 34. 3 Experimenting & testing paulshawsmith scientific business strategy
  • 35. * It’s all about pilots, prototypes and creating new ways of doing things
  • 36. * It’s all about learning what works in the real world
  • 37. Super innovators 75 percentile Non innovators 39 percentile Source: Dyer, Gregersen & Christensen (2011) Experimenting skills
  • 38. Suppliers Potential Regulatory Customers Bodies Industry Employees Indirect Competitors Industry Experts Direct Competitors Lead Competitors Users Industry Bodies Talk to people who know the answer
  • 39. Run experiments on Google Adwords
  • 40. Run experiments on Facebook Ads
  • 41. Test your business idea doing a PowerPoint pitch
  • 42. Find a cheap way to pilot test your business
  • 43. Learn from your experiments
  • 44. Guess? Guess? Guess? Guess? Guess? Guess? Guess? Guess? Guess?
  • 45. Guess? Guess? Test Test Guess? Guess? Guess? Test Test Test Guess? Guess? Test Test Guess? Guess? Test Test
  • 46. In groups of 3 – 4: * Discuss how you will turn your worst idea into a good idea * Think idea evolution, combining, experimenting & testing * Choose one member to present * Explain how it went from a “bad” idea to a “good” idea From a “bad” ideas to “good” ideas

Editor's Notes

  1. Company White water rafting, survival training, fishing & canoeing. Fine in Summer, but in winter when it was dark and cold – tourist wanted as much to do with him as, a modelling agent would want to Quaizmodo. So, he travelled the world and thought that he would hold a ice art exhibition. However, day before the exhibition the tempraturesunually rose and all the art melting. Being a quick witted fellow. Bergvist decided to hold a seminar on how to make ice art. What he found is that a number of the guest started making igloos and talking about wanting to spend a night in an igloo. So, he chucked on the ice scuplture idea as so the ice hotel was born. 33,000 vistors now visit the Ice Hotel every year and 11,000 guest stay over night making Bergvist very successful in the process.
  2. Evan Williams is an entrepreneur that founded 2 of the top 10 internet sites. Blogger and Twitter. What is interesting about both start ups is that his initial plan or “guess” were different to the final business. Pyra Labs which become blogger was initially a project management software company, a note taking feature of the software was spun off at blogger. Odeo was a podcast company that he realised as going no where, his guess was wrong, he through decided do a brainstorm session that resulted in twitter.