Oregon State University resource economist Munisamy Gopinath's research for Oregon Sea Grant

1. A Predictive Approach to Risk Analysis and the Economics of Early Detection and Rapid Response for Aquatic Invasive Species Munisamy Gopinath, AREC, CAS Michael Harte, COAS Samuel Chan, OSG

2. Interest and Motivation Invasive species’ risk assessment and management have been addressed on a case-by-case basis. Few comprehensive approaches to modeling risk and spread, and evaluating alternative management strategies Aquatic invasive species have received less attention nationally, but likely have serious implications for Pacific Northwest

3. Objectives Predict aquatic invasive species introduction and establishment Assess costs and benefits of early detection and rapid response, and alternative management strategies

4. Spatial Modeling We pay attention to space and time in our assessment of IS risk and management strategies

5. Scientific and Economic Components Parameterize/calibrate a prediction model with available (and reliable) data on invasions in the Pacific Northwest and stakeholders’ input With the calibrated model, we will simulate alternative management strategies including early detection and rapid response (EDRR) and assess their outcomes in two dimensions, scientific and economic, with stakeholders’ participation

6. Outcomes Predictive tools, for prioritizing species and pathways, reliant on technical expertise and stakeholder interest Better understand the costs, benefits and tradeoffs of alternative management strategies Greater cost-effectiveness due to more strategic prioritization of resources resulting from predictions