Chinook Stock Monitoring: Spawning Surveys, Escapement Estimates and Forecasts
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Jame Losee's presentation at the 2014 Nisqually Annual Program Review
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Chinook Stock Monitoring: Spawning Surveys, Escapement Estimates and Forecasts
- 1. Nisqually Chinook Annual Review 1 Chinook Stock Monitoring Spawning Surveys, Escapement Estimates & Forecasts James P. Losee, Larry Phillips WDFW Craig Smith, Nano Perez NIT
- 2. Nisqually Chinook Annual Review Spawning surveys-objective ▫ Estimate weir efficiency ▫ Estimate escapement Total abundance Sex ratios Hatchery Origin vs. Natural Origin ▫ Assess fish health (i.e. spawning status) ▫ Habitat monitoring 2
- 3. Nisqually Chinook Annual Review • Weekly sampling (7-10 days) • Raft and Foot • August 28-October 29 3 Spawning surveys-methods
- 4. Nisqually Chinook Annual Review • Live ▫ Mark status ▫ Sex • Dead ▫ Species, Length, Sex ▫ Mark Status, CWTs, Jaw Tags ▫ Biological Data fin clip (genetic stock ID) otoliths (habitat use) scales (age composition) GPS and egg retention • Redd mark and record location 4 Spawning surveys-methods
- 5. Nisqually Chinook Annual Review 5 12.5 (Weir) 39.2 (Mashel R.) 26.2 21.6 (McKenna) 3.2 (Riverbend Campground) 6.6 (Eatonville) Nisqually Watershed
- 6. Nisqually Chinook Annual Review 6Chinook Salmon Carcass Recoveries 30 11 4 12 13 1
- 7. Nisqually Chinook Annual Review 7Hatchery vs. Natural Origin Carcasses 12.5 (Weir) 43%88%
- 8. Nisqually Chinook Annual Review 8 Add other carcass locations +jaw tag Jaw Tag Recoveries 12.5 (Weir) 22% of non-marked fish recovered above weir were jaw tagged.
- 9. Nisqually Chinook Annual Review • Survey-based (Harrington-Tweit, 1986) ▫ Escapement=6.81((2.5*Mainstem peak L+D) + Mashel peak L + D) • Change-in-ratio (Seber, 1982) ▫ Escapement=(removals(%marked removals-%marked at weir))/(%marked in fishery-%marked at weir) ▫ Requires 3 sampling locations (strata) 9 WeirFishery Hatchery Escapement Estimates
- 10. Nisqually Chinook Annual Review 10 Escapement Results1979-2011 Nisqually Fall Chinook Escapement Estimates 6.81((2.5*mnstm peak)+Mashel peak) Return Year 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 EscapementEstimate 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 Escapement Method Total Escapement Hatchery Origin Natural Origin Change-in-ratio 2293 1257 1035 Traditional 245 134 111 Change-in-Ratio
- 11. Nisqually Chinook Annual Review Estimation of sport catch • Creel Survey Data ▫ CWT recoveries ▫ Mark vs. Unmark (retained and released) ▫ Age composition (scales) ▫ Genetic Stock ID (tissue samples) • Catch Record Card Data ▫ Species retained ▫ Mark status 11
- 12. Nisqually Chinook Annual Review Forecasting 2014 12 Brood Year # Fry Released Survival 1996 4,395,000 0.86% 1997 3,257,000 0.18% 1998 3,319,476 0.97% 1999 4,276,895 0.75% 2000 3,275,907 0.83% 2001 4,097,466 0.39% 2002 3,514,024 0.96% 2003 4,166,184 0.75% 2004 3,443,874 1.21% 2005 3,876,056 0.52% 2006 4,376,957 0.43% 2007 4,322,815 1.40% 2008 4,297,982 0.40%
- 13. Nisqually Chinook Annual Review 13 District 11 Hatchery Survival by Brood (1995-2008) 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 %Return(survival) 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 Voights Minter Creek Deschutes R. Nisqually R. White River Spring Forecasting 2014
- 14. Nisqually Chinook Annual Review 14 Forecasting 2014 Brood Year Age Return Mark Rates AD Clipped Unmarked Total 2009 5 225 94.6% 212 12 225 2010 4 15,897 94.3% 14997 900 15897 2011 3 15,361 93.9% 14421 940 15361 Total 29,630 1,852 31,482 2014 Forecast=31,482
- 15. Nisqually Chinook Annual Review 15 Escapement Method Total Escapement Live Counts 815, 887 Weir Counts 818, 961 Nisqually Pink Salmon 17,305 987, 547 Nisqually River Pink Salmon Total Runsize
- 16. Nisqually Chinook Annual Review 16Chinook Salmon Carcass Recoveries 30 11 4 12 13 1
- 17. Nisqually Chinook Annual Review • Continue to monitor the effect of the weir. • Improve escapement estimate with weir counts. 17 Future Directions
Editor's Notes
- Error associated with traditional method Hoped to use the weir to achieve a direct estimate of escapement 1979 to current 2.5 accounts for the fact that more fish are seen in Mashel than Nisqually 6.81 is the expansion factor for the rest of the river. Without 100% efficiency and no jaw tags we were forced to do the CIR
- Uses mulitiple sources of data but also reflects the population size observed in the sport fishery Past modeling efforts and policy decisions have relied on the traditional method. Can’t compare to base years. Spawning survey escapement estimate has issues. Highlighted in years where redd counts are greater than live counts. Spawning surveys UMNT 26.1% marked 73.9% Include Table of HOR and NORs