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Chinook Stock Monitoring: Spawning Surveys, Escapement Estimates and Forecasts
 

Chinook Stock Monitoring: Spawning Surveys, Escapement Estimates and Forecasts

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Jame Losee's presentation at the 2014 Nisqually Annual Program Review

Jame Losee's presentation at the 2014 Nisqually Annual Program Review

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  • Error associated with traditional method <br /> Hoped to use the weir to achieve a direct estimate of escapement <br /> 1979 to current <br /> 2.5 accounts for the fact that more fish are seen in Mashel than Nisqually <br /> 6.81 is the expansion factor for the rest of the river. <br /> Without 100% efficiency and no jaw tags we were forced to do the CIR <br />
  • Uses mulitiple sources of data but also reflects the population size observed in the sport fishery <br /> Past modeling efforts and policy decisions have relied on the traditional method. <br /> Can’t compare to base years. <br /> Spawning survey escapement estimate has issues. Highlighted in years where redd counts are greater than live counts. <br /> Spawning surveys UMNT 26.1% marked 73.9% Include Table of HOR and NORs <br />

Chinook Stock Monitoring: Spawning Surveys, Escapement Estimates and Forecasts Chinook Stock Monitoring: Spawning Surveys, Escapement Estimates and Forecasts Presentation Transcript

  • Nisqually Chinook Annual Review 1 Chinook Stock Monitoring Spawning Surveys, Escapement Estimates & Forecasts James P. Losee, Larry Phillips WDFW Craig Smith, Nano Perez NIT
  • Nisqually Chinook Annual Review Spawning surveys-objective ▫ Estimate weir efficiency ▫ Estimate escapement  Total abundance  Sex ratios  Hatchery Origin vs. Natural Origin ▫ Assess fish health (i.e. spawning status) ▫ Habitat monitoring 2
  • Nisqually Chinook Annual Review • Weekly sampling (7-10 days) • Raft and Foot • August 28-October 29 3 Spawning surveys-methods
  • Nisqually Chinook Annual Review • Live ▫ Mark status ▫ Sex • Dead ▫ Species, Length, Sex ▫ Mark Status, CWTs, Jaw Tags ▫ Biological Data  fin clip (genetic stock ID)  otoliths (habitat use)  scales (age composition)  GPS and egg retention • Redd  mark and record location 4 Spawning surveys-methods
  • Nisqually Chinook Annual Review 5 12.5 (Weir) 39.2 (Mashel R.) 26.2 21.6 (McKenna) 3.2 (Riverbend Campground) 6.6 (Eatonville) Nisqually Watershed
  • Nisqually Chinook Annual Review 6Chinook Salmon Carcass Recoveries 30 11 4 12 13 1
  • Nisqually Chinook Annual Review 7Hatchery vs. Natural Origin Carcasses 12.5 (Weir) 43%88%
  • Nisqually Chinook Annual Review 8 Add other carcass locations +jaw tag Jaw Tag Recoveries 12.5 (Weir) 22% of non-marked fish recovered above weir were jaw tagged.
  • Nisqually Chinook Annual Review • Survey-based (Harrington-Tweit, 1986) ▫ Escapement=6.81((2.5*Mainstem peak L+D) + Mashel peak L + D) • Change-in-ratio (Seber, 1982) ▫ Escapement=(removals(%marked removals-%marked at weir))/(%marked in fishery-%marked at weir) ▫ Requires 3 sampling locations (strata) 9 WeirFishery Hatchery Escapement Estimates
  • Nisqually Chinook Annual Review 10 Escapement Results1979-2011 Nisqually Fall Chinook Escapement Estimates 6.81((2.5*mnstm peak)+Mashel peak) Return Year 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 EscapementEstimate 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 Escapement Method Total Escapement Hatchery Origin Natural Origin Change-in-ratio 2293 1257 1035 Traditional 245 134 111 Change-in-Ratio
  • Nisqually Chinook Annual Review Estimation of sport catch • Creel Survey Data ▫ CWT recoveries ▫ Mark vs. Unmark (retained and released) ▫ Age composition (scales) ▫ Genetic Stock ID (tissue samples) • Catch Record Card Data ▫ Species retained ▫ Mark status 11
  • Nisqually Chinook Annual Review Forecasting 2014 12 Brood Year # Fry Released Survival 1996 4,395,000 0.86% 1997 3,257,000 0.18% 1998 3,319,476 0.97% 1999 4,276,895 0.75% 2000 3,275,907 0.83% 2001 4,097,466 0.39% 2002 3,514,024 0.96% 2003 4,166,184 0.75% 2004 3,443,874 1.21% 2005 3,876,056 0.52% 2006 4,376,957 0.43% 2007 4,322,815 1.40% 2008 4,297,982 0.40%
  • Nisqually Chinook Annual Review 13 District 11 Hatchery Survival by Brood (1995-2008) 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 %Return(survival) 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 Voights Minter Creek Deschutes R. Nisqually R. White River Spring Forecasting 2014
  • Nisqually Chinook Annual Review 14 Forecasting 2014 Brood Year Age Return Mark Rates AD Clipped Unmarked Total 2009 5 225 94.6% 212 12 225 2010 4 15,897 94.3% 14997 900 15897 2011 3 15,361 93.9% 14421 940 15361 Total 29,630 1,852 31,482 2014 Forecast=31,482
  • Nisqually Chinook Annual Review 15 Escapement Method Total Escapement Live Counts 815, 887 Weir Counts 818, 961 Nisqually Pink Salmon 17,305 987, 547 Nisqually River Pink Salmon Total Runsize
  • Nisqually Chinook Annual Review 16Chinook Salmon Carcass Recoveries 30 11 4 12 13 1
  • Nisqually Chinook Annual Review • Continue to monitor the effect of the weir. • Improve escapement estimate with weir counts. 17 Future Directions
  • Nisqually Chinook Annual Review Questions? 18