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The Converging Economic and Environmental Crises - A Pep Talk for those Paying Attention - Nate Hagens
- 1. The converging economic and environmental crises. MCAD 7/10/2014 Nathan John Hagens, Director: Bottleneck Foundation, IIER, ISEOF *
- 2. Salomon Brothers training Class 1992
- 5. OVERVIEW • Introduction • First Principles – Energy – Money/economics – Human behavior • Synthesis: the present and the future • What to do? – What am I doing – What can you be doing? – What can Minnesota be doing?
- 9. Source: “Green Growth an Oxymoron?” IIER 2011
- 10. Ahem. The Cobb Douglas function fully explains growth and is solely based on capital (K) and population (P) and productivity factor (b).
- 14. 150 Horse 1/10 Horse 1 Horse45 Horse
- 15. 30 15 3 0 300kWh 700kWh $3/hr $5/hr $15/hr Model /data IIER
- 16. Wait son. There are plenty of energy and resources and they get cheaper over time. More money and more technology will access all the energy we need.
- 23. Yes but the US is going to be the new Saudi Arabia. Bakken Shale, etc – we literally have hundreds of years of fossil fuels in the ground.
- 25. Retrieved from Ourfiniteworld.com 7/10/2014 Datasource EIA 2014
- 26. Energy price history (Europe)
- 27. 5% of GDP 19 10% of GDP 9
- 28. OVERVIEW • Introduction • First Principles – Energy –Money/finance – Human behavior • Synthesis: the present and the future • What to do? – What am I doing – What can you be doing? – What can Minnesota be doing?
- 32. Excuse me sir. Economics textbooks clearly state that banks only act as intermediaries…
- 35. 35 How many GDP$ for each $ of new debt? - 0.20 0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00 1.20 1954 1956 1958 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 GDPgrowthper$ofnewnon-financialdebt(nominal) U.S. sustainability of new debt (3-year moving average) actual debt sustainability minimum minimum requirement for long term sustainable credit growth Private and public sector debt growth (without financial sector) Sources: U.S. Federal Reserve, BEA, IIER calculations Debt sustainability acts as a measure of the long-term viability of debt and compares economic growth vs. non-financial credit volume growth China Brazil, India Europe
- 37. A micro and macro lens for debt
- 39. OVERVIEW • Introduction • First Principles – Energy – Money/economics –Human behavior • Synthesis: the present and the future • What to do? – What am I doing – What can you be doing? – What can Minnesota be doing?
- 43. BEHAVIOR IS BEST UNDERSTOOD THROUGH THE LENS OF EVOLUTION FROM MACLEAN: THE TRIUNE BRAIN HOMO SAPIENS EVOLVED AMIDST SCARCITY Graphic Credit: Dr. Peter Whybrow – UCLA – Author of “American Mania”
- 44. Optimally, our brain regions work in concert. But the older the brain part, the more potential it has to trump our behaviour
- 45. A) STEEP DISCOUNT RATES
- 52. I wonder if those acacia branches will be sweeter and bigger next week. Guess I’ll never know…
- 54. Wooohooo!!! I can’t wait to see what my grandkids look like!!!!!!
- 58. IS BIGGER BETTER? • Would you prefer a 4,000 sq ft house in a neighborhood of 6,000 sq ft houses? • Or would you prefer a 3,000 sq ft house in a neighborhood of 2,000 sq ft houses? • (Prof Robert Frank)
- 61. C) SUPERNORMAL STIMULI & HABITUATION / ADDICTION
- 63. UNEXPECTED REWARD IS KEY DRIVER Dr Wolfram Schultz testing on chimpanzees – Cambridge University 2003
- 64. The “Wanting ” feels better than the “Having” (The dopamine system is stronger than the opioid system)
- 65. Exercise Watch TV Save climate Vacation Salad Burger Video Game Homework
- 70. The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts. --- Bertrand Russell
- 74. Homo oecinomicus is self- interested and super- rational. Otherwise micro- economics wouldn’t make sense.
- 81. Beliefs… God/ worms Natural limits/ No limits Ford/Chevy Climate Change/ Denial Humans!!!! /other speciesThe Future/ This weekend Economic growth/ degrowth Finite Natural Resources
- 84. E) MAXIMUM POWER
- 85. “What took place in the early 1500s was truly exceptional, something that had never happened before and never will again. Two cultural experiments, running in isolation for 15,000 years or more, at last came face to face. Amazingly, after all that time, each could recognize the other’s institutions. When Cortés landed in Mexico he found roads, canals, cities, palaces, schools, law courts, markets, irrigation works, kings, priests, temples, peasants, artisans, armies, astronomers, merchants, sports, theatre, art, music, and books. High civilization, differing in detail but alike in essentials, had evolved independently on both sides of the earth.” Ronald Wright, A Short History of Progress (2004, 50-51)
- 89. "Selfishness beats altruism within groups. Altruistic groups beat selfish groups. Everything else is commentary.“ D.S. Wilson and E.O. Wilson
- 90. 1. We value the present disproportionately more than the future via steep discount rates. 2. We easily become distracted by and habituated to readily available novelty. 3. Via natural selection, we are programmed to compete for RELATIVE status (and resources) by whatever metric our current environment dictates. 4. Cognitive biases. –Our brains are like swiss army knives 5. We are not sentient or sapient in aggregate but follow the momentum of the ‘hive’. DEMAND OVERVIEW
- 94. OVERVIEW • Introduction • First Principles – Energy – Money/finance – Human behavior • Synthesis: the present and the future • What to do? – What am I doing – What can you be doing? – What can Minnesota be doing?
- 95. + OIL We turn energy and resources Into dollars …and dollars into feelings + waste The Human Ecosystem Past, present and FUTURE
- 96. Credit: Adapted from Richard Feely (NOAA), Pieter Tans, NOAA/ESRL (www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends) and Ralph Keeling, Scripps Institution of Oceanography (scrippsco2.ucsd.edu)
- 98. Source: Stuart Staniford: EarlyWarn “A central finding of WGIII is that growth of income has been the largest single driver of emissions.” Victor, Science July 2014.
- 100. US Going it alone? Kintisch – Science July 2014
- 107. Jeez.. Really?
- 110. GROWTH
- 111. Income development 2002-2012, U.S. census data (www.census.gov), graphic IIER For most people growth is already over…
- 112. 112 Belowinflation interestrates Directliquiditytoinstitutionsatrisk (countries/banks) Guaranteesforcreditmarkets (housing,students) Explicitandimplicittoo-big-to-fail guarantees On-goinggovernmentdeficit spending Centralbankbalancesheet expansions Now, systems need permanent support Financial system Physical base
- 113. Our Economic “Pie”
- 114. Our Economic “Pie” More money, less benefits? More energy, less benefits?
- 120. Real Cost of Capital Graphic Rune Likvern, Nate Hagens
- 121. 2.
- 124. Australia could slash its carbon emissions to zero by 2050 and still experience average economic growth of 2.4% a year, according to a UN-backed study. http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/jul/10/zero- carbon Natural gas claimed as a bridge to clean energy future Neonicotinoids blamed for colony collapse disorder. Etc.
- 135. Energy/Capita vs. % Very Happy – (worldvaluesurvey.org)
- 137. 1) Money is marker for energy 1) For most people growth is already over. 3) No shortage of energy but longage of expectations. 4) Biology determines what we need, culture determines how we get it. 5) A lower consumption, more local and regional future. 6) What sort of a future do we want? What are we willing to give up? 7) On some key risks ‘seeing a smoking gun’ will be too late Conclusions
- 138. OVERVIEW • Introduction • First Principles – Energy – Money/finance – Human behavior • Synthesis: the present and the future • What to do? – What am I doing – What can you be doing? – What can Minnesota be doing?
- 140. What Am I doing?
- 143. “ECOJEDI ”
- 146. What Can YOU be doing?
- 148. ENVIRONMENT
- 154. What to Do? Embrace Life
- 158. What to Do? Embrace Life Assert control
- 159. "Biological Basis of the Stress Response" by James P. Henry, Integrative Physiological and Behavioral Science, January-March, 1992, volume 27, Number 1, pages 66-83
- 160. What to Do? Embrace Life Assert control Think/act in terms of real capital
- 162. What to Do? Embrace Life Assert control Think/act in terms of real capital Take back language
- 165. What to Do? Embrace Life Assert control Learn something new, learn something old Think/act in terms of real capital Take back language
- 167. What to Do? Embrace Life Give Something Up Assert control Learn something new, learn something old Think/act in terms of real capital Take back language
- 170. What to Do? Know thy reptile Embrace Life Give Something Up Assert control Learn something new, learn something old Think/act in terms of real capital Take back language
- 176. What to Do? Know your reptile Embrace Life Give Something Up Assert control Learn something new, learn something old Buy solar, but not only as supply Think/act in terms of real capital Take back language
- 178. “Dammit we wasted a day of sunlight”
- 179. What to Do? Know your reptile Embrace Life Give Something Up Assert control Learn something new, learn something old Buy solar, but not only as supply Think/act in terms of real capital Personally Divest Take back language
- 181. What to Do? Know your reptile Embrace Life Give Something Up Assert control Learn something new, learn something old Buy solar, but not only as supply Choose your tribe Think/act in terms of real capital Personally Divest Take back language
- 183. Sociopaths driving train – all we can do is find a car w the right people we want to travel with
- 184. What to Do? Know your reptile Be Prosocial Embrace Life Give Something Up Assert control Learn something new, learn something old Buy solar, but not only as supply Choose your tribe Think/act in terms of real capital Personally Divest Take back language
- 186. What to Do? Know your reptile Be Prosocial Embrace Life Give Something Up Assert control Learn something new, learn something old Like yourself Buy solar, but not only as supply Choose your tribe Think/act in terms of real capital Personally Divest Take back language
- 193. Dear Myself, I don’t know when or where or how I will have to act, but I will not accept dead oceans and ecosystems, etc…………………………………………… ……………………………………………… ………………..When the moment comes, count me in. Sincerely
- 200. What can Minnesota be doing?
- 205. Let’s get started… There could be a great future in this place. Different but great.