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The converging economic and
environmental crises.
MCAD
7/10/2014
Nathan John Hagens,
Director: Bottleneck
Foundation, IIER...
Salomon Brothers training Class 1992
FIRST PRINCIPLES
OVERVIEW
• Introduction
• First Principles
– Energy
– Money/economics
– Human behavior
• Synthesis: the present and the fu...
Source: “Green Growth an Oxymoron?” IIER 2011
Ahem. The Cobb Douglas
function fully explains
growth and is solely
based on capital (K) and
population (P) and
productivi...
Hundreds
of energy
150 Horse 1/10 Horse
1 Horse45 Horse
30 15 3
0 300kWh 700kWh
$3/hr $5/hr $15/hr
Model /data IIER
Wait son. There are plenty
of energy and resources and
they get cheaper over time.
More money and more
technology will acc...
Yes but the US is going to be
the new Saudi Arabia. Bakken
Shale, etc – we literally have
hundreds of years of fossil
fuel...
Retrieved from Ourfiniteworld.com 7/10/2014 Datasource EIA 2014
Energy price history (Europe)
5% of
GDP 
19 10% of
GDP 
9
OVERVIEW
• Introduction
• First Principles
– Energy
–Money/finance
– Human behavior
• Synthesis: the present and the futur...
Excuse me sir. Economics
textbooks clearly state
that banks only act as
intermediaries…
Declining debt productivity
35 How many GDP$ for each $ of new debt?
-
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
1954
1956
1958
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972...
A micro and macro lens for debt
OVERVIEW
• Introduction
• First Principles
– Energy
– Money/economics
–Human behavior
• Synthesis: the present and the fut...
BEHAVIOR IS BEST UNDERSTOOD THROUGH THE LENS OF EVOLUTION
FROM MACLEAN: THE TRIUNE BRAIN
HOMO SAPIENS
EVOLVED AMIDST
SCARC...
Optimally, our brain regions work in
concert. But the older the brain part,
the more potential it has to trump our
behavio...
A) STEEP DISCOUNT RATES
I wonder if those
acacia branches
will be sweeter
and bigger next
week. Guess I’ll
never know…
Wooohooo!!! I can’t
wait to see what my
grandkids look like!!!!!!
A) STATUS/SEXUAL SELECTION
IS BIGGER BETTER?
• Would you prefer a 4,000
sq ft house in a
neighborhood of 6,000 sq
ft houses?
• Or would you prefer a
...
C) SUPERNORMAL STIMULI &
HABITUATION / ADDICTION
http://www.stuartmcmillen.com/comics_en/supernormal-stimuli/#page-6
UNEXPECTED REWARD IS KEY DRIVER
Dr Wolfram Schultz testing on chimpanzees – Cambridge University 2003
The “Wanting ” feels better than the “Having”
(The dopamine system is stronger than the opioid system)
Exercise
Watch TV
Save climate
Vacation
Salad
Burger
Video Game
Homework
Pizza…
Beer
Twitter
Facebook
Football game
Nap
Facebook
Email
Nap
Beer
D) COGNITIVE BIASES
The whole problem with the world is
that fools and fanatics are always so
certain of themselves, and
wiser people so full ...
Homo oecinomicus is self-
interested and super-
rational. Otherwise micro-
economics wouldn’t make
sense.
Beliefs…
God/ worms
Natural limits/
No limits
Ford/Chevy
Climate
Change/
Denial
Humans!!!!
/other speciesThe Future/
This ...
E) MAXIMUM POWER
“What took place in the early 1500s was truly exceptional, something
that had never happened before and never will again. ...
F) EMERGENT PROPERTIES
"Selfishness beats altruism within groups. Altruistic groups
beat selfish groups. Everything else is commentary.“
D.S. Wil...
1. We value the present disproportionately more than the
future via steep discount rates.
2. We easily become distracted b...
Fitness
Maximizers
Adaptation
Executors
200,000 hominid
Generations….
!
The currency is…..
OVERVIEW
• Introduction
• First Principles
– Energy
– Money/finance
– Human behavior
• Synthesis: the present and the futu...
+
OIL
We turn
energy and
resources
Into dollars
…and dollars
into feelings
+ waste
The Human Ecosystem
Past, present and F...
Credit: Adapted from Richard Feely (NOAA), Pieter Tans, NOAA/ESRL (www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends) and Ralph
Keeling, S...
Source: Stuart Staniford: EarlyWarn
“A central finding of WGIII is that growth of income has been
the largest single drive...
US Going it alone?
Kintisch – Science July 2014
Jeez.. Really?
GROWTH
Income development 2002-2012, U.S. census data (www.census.gov), graphic IIER
For most people growth is already over…
112
Belowinflation
interestrates
Directliquiditytoinstitutionsatrisk
(countries/banks)
Guaranteesforcreditmarkets
(housing...
Our Economic “Pie”
Our Economic “Pie”
More money, less benefits?
More energy, less benefits?
Real Cost of Capital
Graphic Rune Likvern, Nate Hagens
2.
Australia could slash its carbon emissions
to zero by 2050 and still experience
average economic growth of 2.4% a year,
ac...
Social
Equity
Finance, etc
Biodiversity
Climate
OA
Geopolitics
Natural
Resources
Energy
Intergenerational
Equity
Interspecies/ecosystems
equity
Energy/Capita vs. % Very Happy – (worldvaluesurvey.org)
1) Money is marker for energy
1) For most people growth is already over.
3) No shortage of energy but longage of expectati...
OVERVIEW
• Introduction
• First Principles
– Energy
– Money/finance
– Human behavior
• Synthesis: the present and the futu...
Energy/
Renewables
Economy/
Jobs/Income
Biodiversity
Climate
Change
Ocean
AcidificationSocial
Equity
Future
Generations
Fi...
What Am I doing?
“ECOJEDI ”
What Can YOU be doing?
ENVIRONMENT
ENVIRONMENT
RESILIENCE/
END of GROWTH
ENVIRONMENT
RESILIENCE/
END of GROWTH
ENVIRONMENT
RESILIENCE/
END of GROWTH
PSYCHOLOGICAL
ENVIRONMENT
RESILIENCE/
END of GROWTH
PSYCHOLOGICAL
Efficiency…
Renewables..
Divestment…
ENVIRONMENT
PSYCHOLOGICAL
RESILIENCE/
END of GROWTH
What to Do?
Embrace Life
What to Do?
Embrace Life
Assert control
"Biological Basis of the Stress Response" by James P. Henry, Integrative Physiological and
Behavioral Science, January-Mar...
What to Do?
Embrace Life
Assert control
Think/act in terms of real capital
What to Do?
Embrace Life
Assert control
Think/act in terms of real capital
Take back language
What to Do?
Embrace Life
Assert control
Learn something new, learn something old
Think/act in terms of real capital
Take b...
What to Do?
Embrace Life
Give Something Up
Assert control
Learn something new, learn something old
Think/act in terms of r...
What to Do?
Know thy reptile
Embrace Life
Give Something Up
Assert control
Learn something new, learn something old
Think/...
Pizza…
Beer
Twitter
Facebook
Football game
Nap
Facebook
Email
Nap
Beer
What to Do?
Know your reptile
Embrace Life
Give Something Up
Assert control
Learn something new, learn something old
Buy s...
“Dammit we wasted a day of sunlight”
What to Do?
Know your reptile
Embrace Life
Give Something Up
Assert control
Learn something new, learn something old
Buy s...
What to Do?
Know your reptile
Embrace Life
Give Something Up
Assert control
Learn something new, learn something old
Buy s...
Sociopaths driving train – all we can do is find a car w the right people we want to travel with
What to Do?
Know your reptile
Be Prosocial
Embrace Life
Give Something Up
Assert control
Learn something new, learn someth...
What to Do?
Know your reptile
Be Prosocial
Embrace Life
Give Something Up
Assert control
Learn something new, learn someth...
Dear Myself,
I don’t know when or where or
how I will have to act, but I will
not accept dead oceans and
ecosystems,
etc……...
What can Minnesota be doing?
Let’s get started…
There could be a great future in this place.
Different but great.
The Converging Economic and Environmental Crises - A Pep Talk for those Paying Attention - Nate Hagens
The Converging Economic and Environmental Crises - A Pep Talk for those Paying Attention - Nate Hagens
The Converging Economic and Environmental Crises - A Pep Talk for those Paying Attention - Nate Hagens
The Converging Economic and Environmental Crises - A Pep Talk for those Paying Attention - Nate Hagens
The Converging Economic and Environmental Crises - A Pep Talk for those Paying Attention - Nate Hagens
The Converging Economic and Environmental Crises - A Pep Talk for those Paying Attention - Nate Hagens
The Converging Economic and Environmental Crises - A Pep Talk for those Paying Attention - Nate Hagens
The Converging Economic and Environmental Crises - A Pep Talk for those Paying Attention - Nate Hagens
The Converging Economic and Environmental Crises - A Pep Talk for those Paying Attention - Nate Hagens
The Converging Economic and Environmental Crises - A Pep Talk for those Paying Attention - Nate Hagens
The Converging Economic and Environmental Crises - A Pep Talk for those Paying Attention - Nate Hagens
The Converging Economic and Environmental Crises - A Pep Talk for those Paying Attention - Nate Hagens
The Converging Economic and Environmental Crises - A Pep Talk for those Paying Attention - Nate Hagens
The Converging Economic and Environmental Crises - A Pep Talk for those Paying Attention - Nate Hagens
The Converging Economic and Environmental Crises - A Pep Talk for those Paying Attention - Nate Hagens
The Converging Economic and Environmental Crises - A Pep Talk for those Paying Attention - Nate Hagens
The Converging Economic and Environmental Crises - A Pep Talk for those Paying Attention - Nate Hagens
The Converging Economic and Environmental Crises - A Pep Talk for those Paying Attention - Nate Hagens
The Converging Economic and Environmental Crises - A Pep Talk for those Paying Attention - Nate Hagens
The Converging Economic and Environmental Crises - A Pep Talk for those Paying Attention - Nate Hagens
The Converging Economic and Environmental Crises - A Pep Talk for those Paying Attention - Nate Hagens
The Converging Economic and Environmental Crises - A Pep Talk for those Paying Attention - Nate Hagens
The Converging Economic and Environmental Crises - A Pep Talk for those Paying Attention - Nate Hagens
The Converging Economic and Environmental Crises - A Pep Talk for those Paying Attention - Nate Hagens
The Converging Economic and Environmental Crises - A Pep Talk for those Paying Attention - Nate Hagens
The Converging Economic and Environmental Crises - A Pep Talk for those Paying Attention - Nate Hagens
The Converging Economic and Environmental Crises - A Pep Talk for those Paying Attention - Nate Hagens
The Converging Economic and Environmental Crises - A Pep Talk for those Paying Attention - Nate Hagens
The Converging Economic and Environmental Crises - A Pep Talk for those Paying Attention - Nate Hagens
The Converging Economic and Environmental Crises - A Pep Talk for those Paying Attention - Nate Hagens
The Converging Economic and Environmental Crises - A Pep Talk for those Paying Attention - Nate Hagens
The Converging Economic and Environmental Crises - A Pep Talk for those Paying Attention - Nate Hagens
The Converging Economic and Environmental Crises - A Pep Talk for those Paying Attention - Nate Hagens
The Converging Economic and Environmental Crises - A Pep Talk for those Paying Attention - Nate Hagens
The Converging Economic and Environmental Crises - A Pep Talk for those Paying Attention - Nate Hagens
The Converging Economic and Environmental Crises - A Pep Talk for those Paying Attention - Nate Hagens
The Converging Economic and Environmental Crises - A Pep Talk for those Paying Attention - Nate Hagens
The Converging Economic and Environmental Crises - A Pep Talk for those Paying Attention - Nate Hagens
The Converging Economic and Environmental Crises - A Pep Talk for those Paying Attention - Nate Hagens
The Converging Economic and Environmental Crises - A Pep Talk for those Paying Attention - Nate Hagens
The Converging Economic and Environmental Crises - A Pep Talk for those Paying Attention - Nate Hagens
The Converging Economic and Environmental Crises - A Pep Talk for those Paying Attention - Nate Hagens
The Converging Economic and Environmental Crises - A Pep Talk for those Paying Attention - Nate Hagens
The Converging Economic and Environmental Crises - A Pep Talk for those Paying Attention - Nate Hagens
The Converging Economic and Environmental Crises - A Pep Talk for those Paying Attention - Nate Hagens
The Converging Economic and Environmental Crises - A Pep Talk for those Paying Attention - Nate Hagens
The Converging Economic and Environmental Crises - A Pep Talk for those Paying Attention - Nate Hagens
The Converging Economic and Environmental Crises - A Pep Talk for those Paying Attention - Nate Hagens
The Converging Economic and Environmental Crises - A Pep Talk for those Paying Attention - Nate Hagens
The Converging Economic and Environmental Crises - A Pep Talk for those Paying Attention - Nate Hagens
The Converging Economic and Environmental Crises - A Pep Talk for those Paying Attention - Nate Hagens
The Converging Economic and Environmental Crises - A Pep Talk for those Paying Attention - Nate Hagens
The Converging Economic and Environmental Crises - A Pep Talk for those Paying Attention - Nate Hagens
The Converging Economic and Environmental Crises - A Pep Talk for those Paying Attention - Nate Hagens
The Converging Economic and Environmental Crises - A Pep Talk for those Paying Attention - Nate Hagens
The Converging Economic and Environmental Crises - A Pep Talk for those Paying Attention - Nate Hagens
The Converging Economic and Environmental Crises - A Pep Talk for those Paying Attention - Nate Hagens
The Converging Economic and Environmental Crises - A Pep Talk for those Paying Attention - Nate Hagens
The Converging Economic and Environmental Crises - A Pep Talk for those Paying Attention - Nate Hagens
The Converging Economic and Environmental Crises - A Pep Talk for those Paying Attention - Nate Hagens
The Converging Economic and Environmental Crises - A Pep Talk for those Paying Attention - Nate Hagens
The Converging Economic and Environmental Crises - A Pep Talk for those Paying Attention - Nate Hagens
The Converging Economic and Environmental Crises - A Pep Talk for those Paying Attention - Nate Hagens
The Converging Economic and Environmental Crises - A Pep Talk for those Paying Attention - Nate Hagens
The Converging Economic and Environmental Crises - A Pep Talk for those Paying Attention - Nate Hagens
The Converging Economic and Environmental Crises - A Pep Talk for those Paying Attention - Nate Hagens
The Converging Economic and Environmental Crises - A Pep Talk for those Paying Attention - Nate Hagens
The Converging Economic and Environmental Crises - A Pep Talk for those Paying Attention - Nate Hagens
The Converging Economic and Environmental Crises - A Pep Talk for those Paying Attention - Nate Hagens
The Converging Economic and Environmental Crises - A Pep Talk for those Paying Attention - Nate Hagens
The Converging Economic and Environmental Crises - A Pep Talk for those Paying Attention - Nate Hagens
The Converging Economic and Environmental Crises - A Pep Talk for those Paying Attention - Nate Hagens
The Converging Economic and Environmental Crises - A Pep Talk for those Paying Attention - Nate Hagens
The Converging Economic and Environmental Crises - A Pep Talk for those Paying Attention - Nate Hagens
The Converging Economic and Environmental Crises - A Pep Talk for those Paying Attention - Nate Hagens
The Converging Economic and Environmental Crises - A Pep Talk for those Paying Attention - Nate Hagens
The Converging Economic and Environmental Crises - A Pep Talk for those Paying Attention - Nate Hagens
The Converging Economic and Environmental Crises - A Pep Talk for those Paying Attention - Nate Hagens
The Converging Economic and Environmental Crises - A Pep Talk for those Paying Attention - Nate Hagens
The Converging Economic and Environmental Crises - A Pep Talk for those Paying Attention - Nate Hagens
The Converging Economic and Environmental Crises - A Pep Talk for those Paying Attention - Nate Hagens
The Converging Economic and Environmental Crises - A Pep Talk for those Paying Attention - Nate Hagens
The Converging Economic and Environmental Crises - A Pep Talk for those Paying Attention - Nate Hagens
The Converging Economic and Environmental Crises - A Pep Talk for those Paying Attention - Nate Hagens
The Converging Economic and Environmental Crises - A Pep Talk for those Paying Attention - Nate Hagens
The Converging Economic and Environmental Crises - A Pep Talk for those Paying Attention - Nate Hagens
The Converging Economic and Environmental Crises - A Pep Talk for those Paying Attention - Nate Hagens
The Converging Economic and Environmental Crises - A Pep Talk for those Paying Attention - Nate Hagens
The Converging Economic and Environmental Crises - A Pep Talk for those Paying Attention - Nate Hagens
The Converging Economic and Environmental Crises - A Pep Talk for those Paying Attention - Nate Hagens
The Converging Economic and Environmental Crises - A Pep Talk for those Paying Attention - Nate Hagens
The Converging Economic and Environmental Crises - A Pep Talk for those Paying Attention - Nate Hagens
The Converging Economic and Environmental Crises - A Pep Talk for those Paying Attention - Nate Hagens
The Converging Economic and Environmental Crises - A Pep Talk for those Paying Attention - Nate Hagens
The Converging Economic and Environmental Crises - A Pep Talk for those Paying Attention - Nate Hagens
The Converging Economic and Environmental Crises - A Pep Talk for those Paying Attention - Nate Hagens
The Converging Economic and Environmental Crises - A Pep Talk for those Paying Attention - Nate Hagens
The Converging Economic and Environmental Crises - A Pep Talk for those Paying Attention - Nate Hagens
The Converging Economic and Environmental Crises - A Pep Talk for those Paying Attention - Nate Hagens
The Converging Economic and Environmental Crises - A Pep Talk for those Paying Attention - Nate Hagens
The Converging Economic and Environmental Crises - A Pep Talk for those Paying Attention - Nate Hagens
The Converging Economic and Environmental Crises - A Pep Talk for those Paying Attention - Nate Hagens
The Converging Economic and Environmental Crises - A Pep Talk for those Paying Attention - Nate Hagens
The Converging Economic and Environmental Crises - A Pep Talk for those Paying Attention - Nate Hagens
The Converging Economic and Environmental Crises - A Pep Talk for those Paying Attention - Nate Hagens
The Converging Economic and Environmental Crises - A Pep Talk for those Paying Attention - Nate Hagens
The Converging Economic and Environmental Crises - A Pep Talk for those Paying Attention - Nate Hagens
The Converging Economic and Environmental Crises - A Pep Talk for those Paying Attention - Nate Hagens
The Converging Economic and Environmental Crises - A Pep Talk for those Paying Attention - Nate Hagens
The Converging Economic and Environmental Crises - A Pep Talk for those Paying Attention - Nate Hagens
The Converging Economic and Environmental Crises - A Pep Talk for those Paying Attention - Nate Hagens
The Converging Economic and Environmental Crises - A Pep Talk for those Paying Attention - Nate Hagens
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The Converging Economic and Environmental Crises - A Pep Talk for those Paying Attention - Nate Hagens

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The slides of my latest speech:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_hNi-7EjsH4#t=3580
were a bit washed out. I upload them here if anyone wanted to see clearer details.

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The Converging Economic and Environmental Crises - A Pep Talk for those Paying Attention - Nate Hagens

  1. 1. The converging economic and environmental crises. MCAD 7/10/2014 Nathan John Hagens, Director: Bottleneck Foundation, IIER, ISEOF *
  2. 2. Salomon Brothers training Class 1992
  3. 3. FIRST PRINCIPLES
  4. 4. OVERVIEW • Introduction • First Principles – Energy – Money/economics – Human behavior • Synthesis: the present and the future • What to do? – What am I doing – What can you be doing? – What can Minnesota be doing?
  5. 5. Source: “Green Growth an Oxymoron?” IIER 2011
  6. 6. Ahem. The Cobb Douglas function fully explains growth and is solely based on capital (K) and population (P) and productivity factor (b).
  7. 7. Hundreds of energy
  8. 8. 150 Horse 1/10 Horse 1 Horse45 Horse
  9. 9. 30 15 3 0 300kWh 700kWh $3/hr $5/hr $15/hr Model /data IIER
  10. 10. Wait son. There are plenty of energy and resources and they get cheaper over time. More money and more technology will access all the energy we need.
  11. 11. Yes but the US is going to be the new Saudi Arabia. Bakken Shale, etc – we literally have hundreds of years of fossil fuels in the ground.
  12. 12. Retrieved from Ourfiniteworld.com 7/10/2014 Datasource EIA 2014
  13. 13. Energy price history (Europe)
  14. 14. 5% of GDP  19 10% of GDP  9
  15. 15. OVERVIEW • Introduction • First Principles – Energy –Money/finance – Human behavior • Synthesis: the present and the future • What to do? – What am I doing – What can you be doing? – What can Minnesota be doing?
  16. 16. Excuse me sir. Economics textbooks clearly state that banks only act as intermediaries…
  17. 17. Declining debt productivity
  18. 18. 35 How many GDP$ for each $ of new debt? - 0.20 0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00 1.20 1954 1956 1958 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 GDPgrowthper$ofnewnon-financialdebt(nominal) U.S. sustainability of new debt (3-year moving average) actual debt sustainability minimum minimum requirement for long term sustainable credit growth Private and public sector debt growth (without financial sector) Sources: U.S. Federal Reserve, BEA, IIER calculations Debt sustainability acts as a measure of the long-term viability of debt and compares economic growth vs. non-financial credit volume growth China Brazil, India Europe
  19. 19. A micro and macro lens for debt
  20. 20. OVERVIEW • Introduction • First Principles – Energy – Money/economics –Human behavior • Synthesis: the present and the future • What to do? – What am I doing – What can you be doing? – What can Minnesota be doing?
  21. 21. BEHAVIOR IS BEST UNDERSTOOD THROUGH THE LENS OF EVOLUTION FROM MACLEAN: THE TRIUNE BRAIN HOMO SAPIENS EVOLVED AMIDST SCARCITY Graphic Credit: Dr. Peter Whybrow – UCLA – Author of “American Mania”
  22. 22. Optimally, our brain regions work in concert. But the older the brain part, the more potential it has to trump our behaviour
  23. 23. A) STEEP DISCOUNT RATES
  24. 24. I wonder if those acacia branches will be sweeter and bigger next week. Guess I’ll never know…
  25. 25. Wooohooo!!! I can’t wait to see what my grandkids look like!!!!!!
  26. 26. A) STATUS/SEXUAL SELECTION
  27. 27. IS BIGGER BETTER? • Would you prefer a 4,000 sq ft house in a neighborhood of 6,000 sq ft houses? • Or would you prefer a 3,000 sq ft house in a neighborhood of 2,000 sq ft houses? • (Prof Robert Frank)
  28. 28. C) SUPERNORMAL STIMULI & HABITUATION / ADDICTION
  29. 29. http://www.stuartmcmillen.com/comics_en/supernormal-stimuli/#page-6
  30. 30. UNEXPECTED REWARD IS KEY DRIVER Dr Wolfram Schultz testing on chimpanzees – Cambridge University 2003
  31. 31. The “Wanting ” feels better than the “Having” (The dopamine system is stronger than the opioid system)
  32. 32. Exercise Watch TV Save climate Vacation Salad Burger Video Game Homework
  33. 33. Pizza… Beer Twitter Facebook Football game Nap Facebook Email Nap Beer
  34. 34. D) COGNITIVE BIASES
  35. 35. The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts. --- Bertrand Russell
  36. 36. Homo oecinomicus is self- interested and super- rational. Otherwise micro- economics wouldn’t make sense.
  37. 37. Beliefs… God/ worms Natural limits/ No limits Ford/Chevy Climate Change/ Denial Humans!!!! /other speciesThe Future/ This weekend Economic growth/ degrowth Finite Natural Resources
  38. 38. E) MAXIMUM POWER
  39. 39. “What took place in the early 1500s was truly exceptional, something that had never happened before and never will again. Two cultural experiments, running in isolation for 15,000 years or more, at last came face to face. Amazingly, after all that time, each could recognize the other’s institutions. When Cortés landed in Mexico he found roads, canals, cities, palaces, schools, law courts, markets, irrigation works, kings, priests, temples, peasants, artisans, armies, astronomers, merchants, sports, theatre, art, music, and books. High civilization, differing in detail but alike in essentials, had evolved independently on both sides of the earth.” Ronald Wright, A Short History of Progress (2004, 50-51)
  40. 40. F) EMERGENT PROPERTIES
  41. 41. "Selfishness beats altruism within groups. Altruistic groups beat selfish groups. Everything else is commentary.“ D.S. Wilson and E.O. Wilson
  42. 42. 1. We value the present disproportionately more than the future via steep discount rates. 2. We easily become distracted by and habituated to readily available novelty. 3. Via natural selection, we are programmed to compete for RELATIVE status (and resources) by whatever metric our current environment dictates. 4. Cognitive biases. –Our brains are like swiss army knives 5. We are not sentient or sapient in aggregate but follow the momentum of the ‘hive’. DEMAND OVERVIEW
  43. 43. Fitness Maximizers Adaptation Executors 200,000 hominid Generations…. !
  44. 44. The currency is…..
  45. 45. OVERVIEW • Introduction • First Principles – Energy – Money/finance – Human behavior • Synthesis: the present and the future • What to do? – What am I doing – What can you be doing? – What can Minnesota be doing?
  46. 46. + OIL We turn energy and resources Into dollars …and dollars into feelings + waste The Human Ecosystem Past, present and FUTURE
  47. 47. Credit: Adapted from Richard Feely (NOAA), Pieter Tans, NOAA/ESRL (www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends) and Ralph Keeling, Scripps Institution of Oceanography (scrippsco2.ucsd.edu)
  48. 48. Source: Stuart Staniford: EarlyWarn “A central finding of WGIII is that growth of income has been the largest single driver of emissions.” Victor, Science July 2014.
  49. 49. US Going it alone? Kintisch – Science July 2014
  50. 50. Jeez.. Really?
  51. 51. GROWTH
  52. 52. Income development 2002-2012, U.S. census data (www.census.gov), graphic IIER For most people growth is already over…
  53. 53. 112 Belowinflation interestrates Directliquiditytoinstitutionsatrisk (countries/banks) Guaranteesforcreditmarkets (housing,students) Explicitandimplicittoo-big-to-fail guarantees On-goinggovernmentdeficit spending Centralbankbalancesheet expansions Now, systems need permanent support Financial system Physical base
  54. 54. Our Economic “Pie”
  55. 55. Our Economic “Pie” More money, less benefits? More energy, less benefits?
  56. 56. Real Cost of Capital Graphic Rune Likvern, Nate Hagens
  57. 57. 2.
  58. 58. Australia could slash its carbon emissions to zero by 2050 and still experience average economic growth of 2.4% a year, according to a UN-backed study. http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/jul/10/zero- carbon Natural gas claimed as a bridge to clean energy future Neonicotinoids blamed for colony collapse disorder. Etc.
  59. 59. Social Equity Finance, etc Biodiversity Climate OA Geopolitics Natural Resources Energy
  60. 60. Intergenerational Equity
  61. 61. Interspecies/ecosystems equity
  62. 62. Energy/Capita vs. % Very Happy – (worldvaluesurvey.org)
  63. 63. 1) Money is marker for energy 1) For most people growth is already over. 3) No shortage of energy but longage of expectations. 4) Biology determines what we need, culture determines how we get it. 5) A lower consumption, more local and regional future. 6) What sort of a future do we want? What are we willing to give up? 7) On some key risks ‘seeing a smoking gun’ will be too late Conclusions
  64. 64. OVERVIEW • Introduction • First Principles – Energy – Money/finance – Human behavior • Synthesis: the present and the future • What to do? – What am I doing – What can you be doing? – What can Minnesota be doing?
  65. 65. Energy/ Renewables Economy/ Jobs/Income Biodiversity Climate Change Ocean AcidificationSocial Equity Future Generations Finite Natural Resources
  66. 66. What Am I doing?
  67. 67. “ECOJEDI ”
  68. 68. What Can YOU be doing?
  69. 69. ENVIRONMENT
  70. 70. ENVIRONMENT RESILIENCE/ END of GROWTH
  71. 71. ENVIRONMENT RESILIENCE/ END of GROWTH
  72. 72. ENVIRONMENT RESILIENCE/ END of GROWTH PSYCHOLOGICAL
  73. 73. ENVIRONMENT RESILIENCE/ END of GROWTH PSYCHOLOGICAL Efficiency… Renewables.. Divestment…
  74. 74. ENVIRONMENT PSYCHOLOGICAL RESILIENCE/ END of GROWTH
  75. 75. What to Do? Embrace Life
  76. 76. What to Do? Embrace Life Assert control
  77. 77. "Biological Basis of the Stress Response" by James P. Henry, Integrative Physiological and Behavioral Science, January-March, 1992, volume 27, Number 1, pages 66-83
  78. 78. What to Do? Embrace Life Assert control Think/act in terms of real capital
  79. 79. What to Do? Embrace Life Assert control Think/act in terms of real capital Take back language
  80. 80. What to Do? Embrace Life Assert control Learn something new, learn something old Think/act in terms of real capital Take back language
  81. 81. What to Do? Embrace Life Give Something Up Assert control Learn something new, learn something old Think/act in terms of real capital Take back language
  82. 82. What to Do? Know thy reptile Embrace Life Give Something Up Assert control Learn something new, learn something old Think/act in terms of real capital Take back language
  83. 83. Pizza… Beer Twitter Facebook Football game Nap Facebook Email Nap Beer
  84. 84. What to Do? Know your reptile Embrace Life Give Something Up Assert control Learn something new, learn something old Buy solar, but not only as supply Think/act in terms of real capital Take back language
  85. 85. “Dammit we wasted a day of sunlight”
  86. 86. What to Do? Know your reptile Embrace Life Give Something Up Assert control Learn something new, learn something old Buy solar, but not only as supply Think/act in terms of real capital Personally Divest Take back language
  87. 87. What to Do? Know your reptile Embrace Life Give Something Up Assert control Learn something new, learn something old Buy solar, but not only as supply Choose your tribe Think/act in terms of real capital Personally Divest Take back language
  88. 88. Sociopaths driving train – all we can do is find a car w the right people we want to travel with
  89. 89. What to Do? Know your reptile Be Prosocial Embrace Life Give Something Up Assert control Learn something new, learn something old Buy solar, but not only as supply Choose your tribe Think/act in terms of real capital Personally Divest Take back language
  90. 90. What to Do? Know your reptile Be Prosocial Embrace Life Give Something Up Assert control Learn something new, learn something old Like yourself Buy solar, but not only as supply Choose your tribe Think/act in terms of real capital Personally Divest Take back language
  91. 91. Dear Myself, I don’t know when or where or how I will have to act, but I will not accept dead oceans and ecosystems, etc…………………………………………… ……………………………………………… ………………..When the moment comes, count me in. Sincerely
  92. 92. What can Minnesota be doing?
  93. 93. Let’s get started… There could be a great future in this place. Different but great.

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