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Weekly Reversal Levels for January 17, 2015
1. Weekly Reversal Levels for January 17, 2015.
Quick intro:
Further instructions are in the final pages of this PDF, here is the quick start info:
Weekly reversal levels can be used for market orientation and long term investing. The color codes indicate
the current Mode of the market:
* Green: bullish with upward momentum (MoM). Market is above its reversal level and climbing higher.
Rallying.
* Pale Green: bullish with downward momentum (MoM). Market is above its reversal level and mean reverting
towards it. Sideways pause or correcting.
* Red: bearish with downward momentum (MoM). Market is below its reversal level and heading lower.
Declining
* Pink: bearish with upward momentum (MoM). Market is below its reversal level and mean reverting towards
it. Sideways pause or rebounding.
The tables below give the weekly Mode, the weekly reversal level (RevL) and the weekly MoM. You can see
how many weeks have passed since the last standard Buy or Sell signal and the % change since that signal
(blue = profitable and orange = loss).
The action column gives quick info for trading:
* Buy, Sell, weak Buy (wBuy) or weak Sell (wSell) -> regular buy and sell signal based on the reversal level.
* Speculative Buy (spBuy) -> MoM turning up, can give you a great entry point for stocks you want to buy on
weakness.
* Partial profits (pP) -> a chance to take some money off the table. You can always scale back in when the up
trend resumes (see: "Add").
* Add -> this is where you can add to positions.
* Add short (AddSh) -> good opportunity to add or initiate short positions.
* Watch (w) -> stock to watch, very close to reversal level. The reversal level tends to reject prices, which can
be used for special entry techniques (More on that later).
The MoM indicator shows the current "mood" tendency of the stock based on a proprietary formula. It is used
to detect speculative buy opportunities in stocks that have become very oversold.
The buy and sell signals generated by the reversal levels are a "trend following" method. The signals
generated by MoM indicator are a "mean reversal" method. By combining both we have a hybrid system.
Tip: Yellow boxes in the "MoM" or "Weeks" column help you to spot where the action is. These are stocks with
momentum changes or with new buy or sell signals.
Tip2: To find a certain stock quickly you can use the "Find" function in Acrobat Reader. Just click "Ctrl+F" and it
will bring up a little search box. Typing in the name or ticker of the stock you are looking for will locate it in the
list.
More details and strategies for use can be found at the end of this PDF. There is also a little FAQ.
2. Major indexes
Weekly Current Mode RevL (W) MoM (W) Weeks % Ch. Action
Nasdaq ^IXIC 4634.38 4541.16 ▼ 3.53 12 3.70 w
S&P 500 ^SPX 2019.42 1987.85 ▼ 3.14 12 2.88 w
Nikkei ^N225 16864.16 16274.97 ▼ 5.39 11 0.79
FTSE 100 ^FTSE 6550.30 6657.54 ▼ -1.00 5 3.96 w
DAX ^DAX 10167.77 9429.70 ▼ 3.22 8 4.58
20+ Year Tr. Bond ETF TLT 133.19 120.66 ▲ 8.24 51 24.84
Gold (spot) $XAUUSD 1279.70 1194.66 ▲ -0.10 0 0.00 Buy
$EURUSD $EURUSD 1.1557 1.2790 ▼ -8.76 35 -15.58
Oil (CL) #CL 49.13 76.75 ▲ -10.00 27 -51.10
Dow Jones Composite stocks
Weekly Current Mode RevL (W) MoM (W) Weeks % Ch. Action
American Electric Power Co. AEP 63.57 56.35 ▲ 7.60 20 18.47
AES Corporation AES 13.37 14.11 ▼ -1.59 1 3.89
Alaska Air Group ALK 62.35 51.24 ▼ 8.31 12 23.93
American Express AXP 86.04 92.18 ▼ 1.73 0 0.00 Sell
Boeing Co. BA 130.78 125.55 ▲ 1.57 3 -0.71
Caterpillar Inc. CAT 83.86 98.43 ▼ -5.74 6 -15.00
CH Robinson Worldwide CHRW 73.45 67.91 ▼ 4.53 39 29.11
CenterPoint Energy CNP 23.00 24.11 ▼ -2.53 6 -2.21
Con-way Inc. CNW 43.25 48.29 ▼ 0.30 1 -4.42
Cisco Systems, Inc. CSCO 27.68 25.16 ▼ 8.07 10 10.54
CSX Corp. CSX 34.86 33.52 ▼ 2.37 13 7.69
Chevron Corporation CVX 105.12 118.88 ▼ -4.67 18 -14.05
Dominion Resources D 77.76 72.34 ▲ 5.59 20 10.56
Delta Air Lines Inc. DAL 45.84 42.20 ▼ 6.69 12 16.40
DuPont Co. DD 74.25 69.16 ▼ 4.35 17 4.21
Walt Disney Co. DIS 95.18 88.57 ▲ 4.37 12 7.58
Duke Energy DUK 87.35 79.60 ▲ 6.56 40 22.56
Consolidated Edison ED 69.10 62.18 ▲ 8.13 30 21.55
3. Edison International EIX 68.00 61.79 ▲ 7.29 50 40.53
Exelon Corporation EXC 37.38 34.72 ▼ 3.23 19 10.56
Expeditors Intl. of Washington EXPD 43.37 42.28 ▼ 2.22 11 1.59 w
FedEx Corporation FDX 176.76 163.04 ▼ 4.64 79 73.44
FirstEnergy Corp. FE 40.92 36.20 ▲ 6.16 20 19.51
General Electric GE 23.59 25.84 ▼ -2.99 5 -5.68
GATX Corp. GMT 53.48 60.34 ▼ -4.03 6 -6.39
Goldman Sachs Group GS 177.23 187.70 ▼ 2.04 0 0.00 Sell
Home Depot, Inc. HD 104.12 93.61 ▼ 6.80 33 29.75 pP
Intl Business Machines IBM 157.14 171.00 ▲ -6.24 14 -15.28
Intel Corporation INTC 36.45 33.05 ▼ 5.46 70 57.21
JB Hunt Transport Services JBHT 79.82 78.81 ▼ 3.64 12 3.33 w
JetBlue Airways JBLU 14.85 12.61 ▼ 8.49 11 29.13
Johnson & Johnson JNJ 104.04 102.95 ▼ -0.17 11 -3.52 w
JPMorgan Chase & Co. JPM 55.93 61.45 ▼ 0.78 0 0.00 Sell
Kirby Corporation KEX 78.17 103.33 ▼ -9.03 14 -24.42
Coca Cola Co. KO 42.53 41.56 ▼ 0.08 1 -1.25 w
Kansas City Southern KSU 109.98 118.93 ▼ -0.80 0 0.00 Sell
Landstar System Inc. LSTR 64.97 72.21 ▼ -1.47 1 -4.65
Southwest Airlines Co. LUV 39.48 34.39 ▼ 8.23 138 351.66
Matson, Inc. MATX 34.75 30.02 ▼ 8.21 11 23.75
McDonald's Corp. MCD 91.49 96.44 ▼ -1.53 26 -7.14
3M Co. MMM 162.00 149.83 ▼ 8.13 12 9.46
Merck & Co. Inc. MRK 63.03 57.76 ▲ 1.16 1 -0.11
Microsoft MSFT 46.24 44.49 ▼ 1.49 95 68.23
NextEra Energy, Inc. NEE 108.22 100.49 ▼ 5.67 12 10.16
NiSource Inc. NI 44.01 39.68 ▲ 3.42 108 83.91
Nike Inc. NKE 92.99 88.58 ▼ 4.71 34 21.57
Norfolk Southern NSC 103.58 109.71 ▼ -1.57 1 1.34
PG&E Corp. PCG 58.16 50.01 ▲ 8.43 12 23.35
Public Service Enterprise Grou PEG 43.55 39.43 ▼ 4.58 17 15.61
Pfizer Inc. PFE 32.80 30.42 ▲ 4.69 11 9.70
Procter & Gamble Co. PG 91.25 86.06 ▼ 6.46 27 12.16
Ryder System, Inc. R 88.34 85.89 ▼ 1.48 11 -0.35 w
Southern Company SO 51.35 46.77 ▲ 7.06 48 20.85
AT&T, Inc. T 33.80 34.68 ▲ -2.49 6 -0.53 w
4. The Travelers Companies TRV 106.54 98.68 ▼ 8.03 22 15.28
United Continental Holdings UAL 65.75 55.03 ▼ 8.15 12 32.45
Unitedhealth Group UNH 105.77 92.75 ▼ 8.23 94 87.94
Union Pacific UNP 111.90 121.52 ▼ 0.74 31 11.50
United Parcel Service UPS 110.30 103.57 ▼ 6.57 12 9.72
United Technologies UTX 116.15 109.45 ▼ 5.31 6 3.47
Visa, Inc. V 254.95 239.01 ▼ 8.56 11 5.80
Verizon Communications VZ 47.99 49.25 ▼ -3.61 6 -1.60 w
Williams Companies WMB 42.00 51.00 ▼ -7.61 6 -14.89
Wal-Mart Stores Inc. WMT 86.77 80.58 ▼ 8.23 10 10.39
Exxon Mobil XOM 91.12 96.80 ▲ -2.68 24 -7.72
Nasdaq 100 stocks
Weekly Current Mode RevL (W) MoM (W) Weeks % Ch. Action
Apple Inc. AAPL 105.99 99.62 ▼ 3.93 38 30.90
Adobe Systems Inc. ADBE 71.73 69.30 ▼ 2.51 11 2.57 w
Analog Devices Inc. ADI 53.69 51.56 ▼ 6.10 10 7.04 w
Automatic Data Processing ADP 84.57 76.78 ▼ 7.63 37 24.64
Autodesk, Inc. ADSK 56.85 55.95 ▼ 2.00 11 -1.59 w
Akamai Technologies AKAM 59.22 62.90 ▼ 1.67 0 0.00 Sell
Altera Corp. ALTR 34.84 37.14 ▼ 3.31 0 0.00 Sell
Alexion Pharmaceuticals ALXN 180.44 176.50 ▼ 0.97 35 15.08 w
Applied Materials AMAT 23.47 22.70 ▼ 4.92 11 5.77 w
Amgen Inc. AMGN 158.43 143.84 ▼ 4.85 30 31.28
Amazon.com Inc. AMZN 290.74 321.23 ▼ -1.87 6 -6.69
Activision Blizzard ATVI 20.25 21.42 ▼ -1.96 16 -4.03
Avago Technologies AVGO 103.82 88.19 ▼ 8.13 12 27.37
Bed Bath & Beyond BBBY 73.54 67.72 ▼ 7.69 21 14.10
Baidu, Inc. BIDU 220.20 211.62 ▼ 0.53 34 31.04 w
Biogen Idec Inc. BIIB 352.75 319.50 ▲ 3.12 6 3.30
Broadcom Corp. BRCM 41.72 39.63 ▼ 3.61 12 5.14
CA Technologies CA 31.36 29.07 ▼ 4.78 10 4.36
Celgene Corporation CELG 121.81 99.09 ▼ 7.47 32 50.39
Cerner Corporation CERN 65.59 60.20 ▼ 4.51 25 15.99
Check Point Software Techn. CHKP 80.81 74.03 ▼ 6.77 12 11.37
5. CH Robinson Worldwide CHRW 73.45 67.91 ▼ 4.53 39 29.11
Charter Communications CHTR 161.11 152.72 ▼ 2.95 12 2.53
Comcast Corporation CMCSA 56.77 54.08 ▼ 3.11 11 2.73
Costco Wholesale COST 139.72 130.71 ▼ 7.76 33 20.62
Cisco Systems, Inc. CSCO 27.68 25.16 ▼ 8.07 10 10.54
Catamaran CTRX 51.04 46.89 ▼ 5.07 11 8.16
Cognizant Technology Solutions CTSH 55.03 49.31 ▼ 5.38 11 12.35
Citrix Systems, Inc. CTXS 58.38 66.46 ▼ -3.72 14 -10.87
Discovery Communications DISCA 29.42 36.57 ▼ -3.37 18 -27.21
Discovery Communications DISCK 28.54 36.06 ▼ -3.88 18 -26.29
Dish Network Corp. DISH 71.85 67.12 ▼ 4.17 9 11.24
Dollar Tree, Inc. DLTR 66.71 62.13 ▼ 8.71 32 17.32
DIRECTV, Inc. DTV 85.55 84.43 ▼ -0.46 3 -1.40 w
eBay Inc. EBAY 53.66 53.19 ▼ 3.14 9 -1.31 w
Equinix, Inc. EQIX 220.24 210.35 ▼ 3.57 10 3.16
Express Scripts Inc. ESRX 85.38 78.57 ▼ 7.77 22 16.64
Expeditors Intl. of Washington EXPD 43.37 42.28 ▼ 2.22 11 1.59 w
Expedia Inc. EXPE 83.48 82.01 ▼ 1.58 11 -1.49 w
Fastenal Company FAST 45.25 44.78 ▼ 2.43 6 -3.72 w
Facebook, Inc. FB 75.18 72.47 ▼ 1.72 77 120.66 w
F5 Networks, Inc. FFIV 126.29 121.86 ▼ 3.52 11 3.52 w
Fiserv, Inc. FISV 73.04 66.48 ▼ 6.28 162 151.43
Twenty-First Century Fox FOXA 34.94 37.10 ▼ 3.23 1 -1.58
Gilead Sciences Inc. GILD 100.71 103.74 ▼ -1.55 3 4.76 w
Keurig Green Mountain GMCR 129.00 140.71 ▼ -1.38 2 -1.68
Google Inc. GOOG 508.08 547.29 ▼ -3.82 14 -6.77
Google Inc. GOOGL 510.45 554.93 ▼ -4.28 14 -8.05
Garmin Ltd. GRMN 52.83 55.37 ▼ -1.44 5 0.67 w
Henry Schein, Inc. HSIC 139.50 129.07 ▼ 8.55 11 16.18
Illumina Inc. ILMN 183.82 175.63 ▼ 2.06 12 -3.17 w
Intel Corporation INTC 36.45 33.05 ▼ 5.46 70 57.21
Intuit Inc. INTU 86.42 89.68 ▼ 3.24 0 0.00 Sell
Intuitive Surgical ISRG 530.63 483.88 ▼ 4.15 29 25.92
KLA-Tencor KLAC 67.83 74.13 ▼ -3.82 7 -1.80
Kraft Foods Group KRFT 65.76 59.31 ▲ 8.00 10 13.58
Liberty Global Inc. LBTYA 46.40 46.05 ▼ 4.05 12 3.27 w
6. Linear Technology LLTC 45.32 43.81 ▼ 3.15 7 -1.48 w
Liberty Capital Group LMCA 34.54 35.99 ▼ -1.39 5 -0.49 w
Liberty Media C LMCK 34.70 34.24 ▲ -0.67 2 0.84 w
Liberty Ventures LVNTA 36.14 34.87 ▼ 1.79 9 0.50 w
Marriott International MAR 75.89 67.77 ▼ 6.97 70 76.41
Mattel Inc. MAT 27.82 32.72 ▼ -4.11 51 -34.68
Mondelez International MDLZ 36.94 35.79 ▼ 2.26 10 -2.02 w
Monster Beverage MNST 118.89 97.75 ▼ 7.87 23 71.68
Microsoft MSFT 46.24 44.49 ▼ 1.49 95 68.23
Micron Technology MU 28.99 33.79 ▼ 1.35 0 0.00 Sell
Maxim Integrated Products MXIM 32.01 29.95 ▲ 3.88 6 2.56
Mylan, Inc. MYL 56.00 52.14 ▼ 3.41 15 10.63
Netflix, Inc. NFLX 337.34 382.56 ▲ -5.24 13 -5.24
NetApp, Inc. NTAP 38.75 41.49 ▼ -0.01 0 0.00 Sell
NVIDIA Corporation NVDA 19.96 19.27 ▼ 2.37 11 -0.15 w
NXP Semiconductors NV NXPI 77.91 69.13 ▼ 4.57 12 19.18
O'Reilly Automotive ORLY 182.91 171.10 ▼ 8.88 113 103.01
Paychex, Inc. PAYX 47.30 44.84 ▼ 3.25 26 12.33
PACCAR Inc. PCAR 64.50 63.68 ▼ 3.89 11 -1.07 w
priceline.com Inc PCLN 1008.22 1161.97 ▼ -2.10 10 -7.75
QUALCOMM Inc QCOM 71.29 75.53 ▲ -0.21 0 0.00 wSell
Liberty Interactive QVCA 27.93 26.92 ▼ 5.26 12 9.19 w
Regeneron Pharmaceuticals REGN 408.69 369.75 ▼ 3.98 28 30.95
Ross Stores Inc. ROST 92.90 82.69 ▼ 9.13 21 24.95
SBA Communications SBAC 109.51 108.36 ▼ -0.23 37 15.79 w
Starbucks SBUX 80.61 77.32 ▼ 3.76 10 3.83
Sigma-Aldrich Corp SIAL 137.48 122.59 ▼ 8.80 111 90.71
SIRIUS XM Radio Inc. SIRI 3.53 3.40 ▲ 0.71 9 0.28 w
SanDisk Corp. SNDK 78.93 98.64 ▼ 0.31 0 0.00 Sell
Staples, Inc. SPLS 17.35 14.40 ▲ 10.00 19 35.55
Stericycle, Inc. SRCL 134.15 124.13 ▼ 7.45 12 9.67
Seagate Technology STX 63.41 60.68 ▼ 4.91 11 0.76 w
Symantec Corporation SYMC 25.63 24.02 ▼ 3.80 12 6.97
TripAdvisor Inc. TRIP 68.18 82.59 ▲ -3.50 16 -25.26
Tractor Supply Co TSCO 76.52 71.60 ▼ 6.78 12 6.92
Tesla Motors, Inc. TSLA 193.07 235.69 ▼ -3.64 6 -12.72
36. Investing approach for weekly reversal levels:
* Conservative investors can go with the normal buy and sell signals only and negate the info about
speculative buys and short selling. This is a trend following method, so you will not buy at the bottom and there
will be some “give-back” at the end of a trend. The aim is to participate in the bulk of a move with a minimum of
risk. When you see an "Add" signal you can increase the position by buying more. This means you build bigger
positions in stocks that are going up.
* Short selling can be done on regular sell signals or on "add to shorts" (AddSh). Short positions are best
covered as soon as you see MoM turn up or on the first regular buy signal (Buy or wBuy) that appears after
you went short. Short selling is not for everybody. Make sure you know what you are doing.
* Speculative buying opportunities appear when MoM starts going up for a stock that has been in bearish(red)
mode for a while. This can allow you to pick up stocks near a major low. But some care needs to be taken. Try
to buy near the recent low, and use a properly positioned stop-loss, e.g. just below the recent low, because not
all those speculative buys will work. Keep losers small and let the profits run. You can take some partial profits
when the stock comes close to its reversal level and let the rest run for a regular buy if the stock breaks out
above the reversal level, which triggers a normal buy signal. Note: struggling companies may never recover, so
this method is best used on ETFs or on stocks of companies that are in good financial shape.
The MoM indicator
The MoM indicator shows market momentum on a numeric scale between +10 and -10. You could compare it
to the Richter scale for earthquakes, or a market thermometer if you want.
Various levels in the MoM indicator correspond to market mood as follows:
* +8 to +10: very optimistic – euphoric
* +5 to +8: optimistic
* +3 to +5 : positive
* -3 to +3: neutral
* -3 to -5: negative
* -8 to -5: pessimistic
* -10 to -8: very pessimistic – depressed
Besides the level itself, we also pay attention to the direction. In a healthy bull market, the MoM will be rising
together with the market. When MoM starts going down in a bull market (green), it is an indication that the
market may have peaked out or has started a sideways pause, and that’s when market mode sets to light
green. In a rising market you will typically find MoM hovering between +3 and +10. Market pullbacks will
generally end with MoM bottoming out in the neutral zone ( -3 to +3) before turning back up. In a declining
market you will typically find MoM hovering between -3 and -10. Market rebounds will generally end with MoM
peaking out in the neutral zone ( -3 to +3) before turning back down.
Q & A
Q: I prefer swing trading and your weekly signals seem to be rather slow. Do you have something faster too?
A: Sure. We also publish daily reversal levels, which are tailored for swing trading. Check it out on the contact
addresses given below.
Q: Where can I find more information about these reversal levels and MoM indicator?
A: You can find more materials here: http://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/key-reversal-levels/. More will be
added in the near future as well as example trades.
37. Q: I am a fundamental investor, can I do anything with these reversal levels?
A: Well, even if you select stocks based on fundamentals it will make a difference *when* you buy (sell) them.
Better timing can make a big difference, even for a long term buy and hold investor. For example if your
analysis shows you that company XYZ is great value, then you can still wait until the reversal levels give a buy
signal ( or a speculative buy) to get in. Just try and see whether it improves your results.
Q: Your predictions for last week didn't work very well. But your table always shows a lot of blue (profits). Why
should I believe this?
A: The reversal levels are not a prediction, they are an approach to trading. All you can do is try it in your own
trading (even paper trading) and see how it works. It will naturally take more than one week to see if a method
is good or not. You are also not required to believe anything. You can verify the "%Ch." numbers if you want.
Just take the Open on the Monday after the buy (sell) signal was given and calculate the change to date. It
should match what you find in the table. If that is not the case, feel welcome to contact us with your question.
Q: A stock I own is already trading below its reversal level, so it will probably turn to bearish mode this week.
Do I need to wait for the next Monday's Open to sell this stock?
A: If going into the close on Friday you see that one of your stocks is almost certain to close below the weekly
reversal level then you can already sell it with a MOC (market on close) order. Sometimes this will give you a
slightly better exit than waiting for next Monday's open.
Q: Do I need to take all buy signals in the list?
A: No. Maybe you don like IBM, or the leveraged and reverse ETF in the list, that's up to you of course. Also,
whenever a buy signal appears we can always check how far the stock is above its reversal level. That gives
us an estimate how much risk is in this trade, because the stock will be sold if it drops and closes below the
reversal level. E.g. it is possible that a stock jumps 20% on good news and is already too far above the
reversal level when the buy signal appears. In that case you can wait until the price comes back to the reversal
level to pick it up. So, that's where you can always use some discretion.
Q: Do I need to take all sell signals for stocks I own? What if I am sure my stock will recover soon?
A: If you intend to use the reversal levels properly, then the answer is: yes, always sell when a stock has
closed below its reversal level. Take the profit (or loss) and move on to the next chance. True, sometimes a
stock will come right back after giving a sell signal, but many more times that doesn't happen and the stock just
keeps sinking for some reason that you may not hear about until weeks later (and maybe 20% lower). Then
you will be happy if you sold on the reversal sell signal. This is a discipline thing. Also remember, if the stock
happens to come right back then it will climb back above its reversal level and give a buy signal again. We can
then just buy it right back. That would costs us a few %, but that's a small price to pay for avoiding big losers.
What we try to do is get in on some big trending moves. We will take small losses on the trades that do not
work, and that's the price we pay to get in on big profitable moves.
Q: Shouldn't we buy more when a stock we own is down, in order to reduce our average cost basis?
A: With this method we do not add to losing positions. Only with the speculative buy signals we can decide in
advance to buy in up to 2 tranches, because we can have several speculative buy signals before a stock finally
gets into bullish Mode. A good strategy is to buy a half position on a speculative buy signal and then buy
another half postion on the next regular Buy signal. That gives us a full position and from then on we trade it
normally. The "Add" signals you see in the tables are always at subsequently higher prices, which is a
"doubling up" strategy (anti-Martingale). So, with reversal levels we do not double down on losers, we just sell
them and wait for the next buy signal. This has the advantage that we don't end up with overly big positions in
poorly performing stocks that may keep going nowhere for weeks or months.