Colorado's Solar Thermal Roadmap to Growth: Big Economic Opportunities Ahead
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Despite the best solar thermal resource in North America, Colorado is currently under-utilizing this key renewable technology. This roadmap outlines the economic opportunity in terms of market size, potential installed capacity and installation growth rates, job growth rates, fossil fuel offsets, energy consumer cost savings, and public cost savings due to positive health impacts, reduced environmental impacts, tourism, and more.
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Colorado's Solar Thermal Roadmap to Growth: Big Economic Opportunities Ahead
- 1. Colorado’s Solar Thermal Roadmap to Growth 5/17/2012 1World Renewable Energy Forum 2012 ▪ Colorado Solar Thermal Roadmap
- 2. STAC’s Colorado Solar Thermal Roadmap was unveiled in Denver on January 24, 2012 Available online: www.coseia.org/insigh ts/thermal.html www.cres- energy.org/pubs/solart hermalroadmap.pdf 2/9/2012
- 3. Our vision is to make Colorado a global leader in solar thermal adoption, installation, manufacturing, and R&D, to boost Colorado’s economy, generate jobs, and help build a sustainable energy future. 5/17/2012 World Renewable Energy Forum 2012 ▪ Colorado Solar Thermal Roadmap 3
- 4. Founders (pg. ii of Roadmap) RJ Harrington, Policy Director, COSEIA Ron Horstman, President, RWH Ventures, Inc Neal Lurie, Executive Director, COSEIA Laurent Meillon, Director, Capitol Solar Energy, LLC Leslie Martel Baer, Energy Intersections Becky English, Principal, Rebecca English and Associates Leslie Glustrom, Director of Research and Policy, Clean Energy Action Tony Frank, Executive Director, CRES Ron Larson, Founder, CRES Charlie Montgomery, Energy Organizer, Colorado Environmental Coalition Mike Wilson, Energy Consultant, Earth Energy Solutions Stakeholders (pg. 22) Process 5/17/2012 World Renewable Energy Forum 2012 ▪ Colorado Solar Thermal Roadmap 4
- 5. Lorrie McAllister, Moderator Executive Director, Colorado Renewable Energy Society Lars Lisell Engineer, National Renewable Energy Laboratory Leslie Martel Baer Analyst and Strategist, Energy Intersections, LLC RJ Harrington Executive Director, Clean Energy Action Laurent Meillon Director, Capitol Solar Energy, LLC 5/17/2012 World Renewable Energy Forum 2012 ▪ Colorado Solar Thermal Roadmap 5
- 6. Lars Lisell, Engineer, National Renewable Energy Laboratory 5/17/2012 World Renewable Energy Forum 2012 ▪ Colorado Solar Thermal Roadmap 6
- 7. Colorado Governor’s Energy Office applied for an NREL Technology Assistance Program (TAP) Grant to STAC Validated the conversion (pg. 9): 0.7 kWth capacity per square meter of solar thermal panel in Colorado 1,298 kWhth annual energy consumption offset per 1 kWth capacity of solar thermal 5/17/2012 World Renewable Energy Forum 2012 ▪ Colorado Solar Thermal Roadmap 7
- 8. 5/17/2012 World Renewable Energy Forum 2012 ▪ Colorado Solar Thermal Roadmap 8 U.S. Solar water heating performance in kWh/year (energy saved using a glycol solar system with a selective surface collector; pg 1). Source: Danny Parker, Florida Solar Energy Center
- 9. 5/17/2012 World Renewable Energy Forum 2012 ▪ Colorado Solar Thermal Roadmap 9 Thermally driven cooling and other cooling methods (pg. 3, 18) Biochar: a complementary technology (pg. 3) Economies of scale, equipment cost reductions (pg. 17) New technologies such as PV/ST combined system (below left) Thermally driven electric power production
- 10. NREL MapSearch http://www.nrel.gov/gis/mapsearch/ 5/17/2012 World Renewable Energy Forum 2012 ▪ Colorado Solar Thermal Roadmap 10 South America Asia Kenya India Pakistan
- 11. The map and computations are conservative and NREL vetted The opportunity for ST is large—both from an energy perspective and economic perspective There is plenty of room for ST growth in many applications, both in Colorado and abroad 5/17/2012 World Renewable Energy Forum 2012 ▪ Colorado Solar Thermal Roadmap 11
- 12. Leslie Martel Baer, Analyst and Strategist, Energy Intersections, LLC 5/17/2012 World Renewable Energy Forum 2012 ▪ Colorado Solar Thermal Roadmap 12
- 13. China 78% European Union 12% Turkey 2% Brazil 1% India 1% Israel 1% Australia 1% United States 1% Japan 1% Other 2% % of Added Capacity 5/17/2012 World Renewable Energy Forum 2012 ▪ Colorado Solar Thermal Roadmap 13 2008 total solar hot water/heating capacity added by the top 10 countries: 28 GWth (pg. 4). Source: REN21
- 14. Year Annual Installed Capacity (MWth) Total Solar Thermal Installed Capacity (MWth) Annual Revenue Total Jobs 2010 5 150 $16,000,000 626 2020 35 289 $57,000,000 1,500 2030 500 2,474 $677,000,000 15,600 2040 700 9,140 $944,000,000 21,700 2050 780 16,595 $1,060,000,000 24,300 5/17/2012 World Renewable Energy Forum 2012 ▪ Colorado Solar Thermal Roadmap 14
- 15. Research & Development Engineering Manufacturing System Design Installation Business Management & Executives Indirect Jobs 5/17/2012 World Renewable Energy Forum 2012 ▪ Colorado Solar Thermal Roadmap 15
- 16. New entrants need rigorous training and certification Mathematics and physics really do matter The industry must figure out how to fund this training and education We need to transfer knowledge State could alter insurance rules to support more on-site training 5/17/2012 World Renewable Energy Forum 2012 ▪ Colorado Solar Thermal Roadmap 16
- 17. Natural Gas 68% Electricity 16% Propane/ LPG 16% Water Heating Natural Gas 74% Electricity 11% Propane/ LPG 11% Other 4% Space Heating 5/17/2012 World Renewable Energy Forum 2012 ▪ Colorado Solar Thermal Roadmap 17 Fuels used in Colorado to heat water and building space in 2009. Source: EIA
- 18. RJ Harrington, Executive Director, Clean Energy Action 5/17/2012 World Renewable Energy Forum 2012 ▪ Colorado Solar Thermal Roadmap 18
- 19. Renewable Energy Standard: Sect. 124 Public Utilities Commission: Sect. 123 Energy Efficiency Programs 5/17/2012 World Renewable Energy Forum 2012 ▪ Colorado Solar Thermal Roadmap 19
- 20. Stand-alone thermal standard Building codes, net-zero homes State target with tax credits, rebates 5/17/2012 World Renewable Energy Forum 2012 ▪ Colorado Solar Thermal Roadmap 20
- 21. Solar thermal has limited impact on natural gas market Advantages of gas today: “Clean” or “cleaner”: President Obama Low price, predicted to last for awhile A mini stimulus package … billions of dollars into national economy 5/17/2012 World Renewable Energy Forum 2012 ▪ Colorado Solar Thermal Roadmap 21
- 22. Roadmap as strategic lever Creating new programs Commercialize R & D 5/17/2012 World Renewable Energy Forum 2012 ▪ Colorado Solar Thermal Roadmap 22
- 23. Laurent Meillon, Director, Capitol Solar Energy, LLC 5/17/2012 World Renewable Energy Forum 2012 ▪ Colorado Solar Thermal Roadmap 23
- 24. A shared need across all Energy Decision Makers - renewable and traditional “ With the current ARRA / GEO solar thermal program, I should be investing $50,000 in marketing and staff training right now. I’d be a fool to do that with incentives ending in a few months” —Bruce Padgett, Founder, Capitol Solar Energy I build power plants that last 40 years. I need as much clarity as possible about what the rules are going to be. The clearer the roadmap, the better able I am to make good decisions that will still be good a decade from now, or three decades from now. —CEO, Duke Energy 5/17/2012 World Renewable Energy Forum 2012 ▪ Colorado Solar Thermal Roadmap 24
- 25. The Advantages <50% of buildings’ energy Easy retrofit 5–30 yr payoff (coal = 60 yr) Stores energy on-site New apps: cooling, electricity Cost reduction innovations CSP power plants Free, very long-term fuel Clean fuel, no external costs Local; improves import-export 2/3rd local labor content The Obstacles Lack of consumer awareness Lack of financing mechanism Glaring state policy gap Zoning & permitting red-tape Newly-accessible cheap natural gas 5/17/2012 World Renewable Energy Forum 2012 ▪ Colorado Solar Thermal Roadmap 25 11 advantages clearly outweigh 5 obstacles!
- 26. For those of us invested in preserving the planet for our children and grandchildren, the mission is clear: We must continue to prove that green energy is America's greatest job creator of the 21st century. Since 2003, this sector has added jobs twice as quickly - and at a higher median wage - than other fields. And the private and public sector have the opportunity to bolster this growth further by collaborating to drive down costs, eliminate barriers to innovation, and provide creative financing structures to expand solar market. 5/17/2012 World Renewable Energy Forum 2012 ▪ Colorado Solar Thermal Roadmap 26 —President Bill Clinton Letter to COSEIA February 7, 2012
- 27. Lorrie McAllister Executive Director, Colorado Renewable Energy Society 5/17/2012 World Renewable Energy Forum 2012 ▪ Colorado Solar Thermal Roadmap 27
- 28. 5/17/2012 World Renewable Energy Forum 2012 ▪ Colorado Solar Thermal Roadmap 28 Find the Roadmap online: www.coseia.org/insights/thermal.html www.cres-energy.org/pubs/solarthermalroadmap.pdf Contacts: Lorrie McAllister: 303.806.5317 l.mcallister@cres-energy.org Lars Lisell: 303.384.7487 lars.lisell@nrel.gov Leslie Martel Baer: 303.377.5006 leslie.baer@energyintersections.com RJ Harrington: 720.985.7554 • rjharrington@cleanenergyaction.org Laurent Meillon: 303.623.2542 laurent@capitolsolarenergy.com
Editor's Notes
- Thank you, Ron and to Tony for inviting me to be here today. Energy diversification. As Ron made clear, solar thermal is an exciting technology and this is a particularly exciting time to be involved in it. We are not the only one’s who think so.
- In 2008, 28 GW thermal equivalent of solar thermal heating capacity was installed across the globe, and the U.S. was responsible for less than 1% of that development 1% = 280 MW China = 5 times US pop. I’m not a fan of Senator Inhofe or Donald Trump, but I think this graph pretty well supports the statement that China is laughing at us. Of course, China isn’t laughing at us, really: they are simply going about the business of developing every energy source they can as fast as possible, and solar thermal is one of them. What if Colorado did that?
- Steady growth assures local installers, manufacturers, purchases, investors, consumers that we will get past the boom/bust cycle.
- Can’t outsource key aspects of solar thermal Robust establishment and network of research and development with veterans (SERI/NREL/Collabatory); need to capitalize on veteran’s wisdom is developing new network. Abengoa
- Sending someone on-site: must have the confidence that they can adjust calculations to onsite conditions Strong history of workforce development: Red Rocks Community College, Solar Energy Institute (SEI in Carbondale) Renewed and new interest: Arapahoe Community College, EcoTech Institute Industry should establish a workforce development workgroup to tackle… ST educational system needs assurance that we will get past the boom/bust cycle. Assurance of quality.
- 1/3 of Coloradans can get a 6 year payback (case study, pg 16) Gas prices are low, but we can start with the situations where it is economy today and does provide a reasonable payback, such as certain industry and commercial heating applications and buildings heating water or spaces w/ or electricity. You can see from our charts here, that’s about 1/3 of water heating and one-quarter of space heating: that’s a big niche to dive into, and a large market to tackle today. pay-back example (pg. 16) SUV/communicating to the public