Gwinnett County Real Estate Market Report September July- August 2008

July Numbers - Updated 2130 New Listings 710 Sold Listings 741 Listings Pending Average 86 Days on Market for Sold Listings

2130 New Listings

710 Sold Listings

741 Listings Pending

Average 86 Days on Market for Sold Listings

July Numbers - Updated *Listings Pending may have closed in June, may have closed in July, may close in some other month, or may fail to close. But, there IS overlap with Sold Listings.

*Listings Pending may have closed in June, may have closed in July, may close in some other month, or may fail to close. But, there IS overlap with Sold Listings.

August Numbers - Preliminary 1850 New Listings 326 Sold Listings 638 Listings Pending Average 95 Days on Market for Sold Listings

1850 New Listings

326 Sold Listings

638 Listings Pending

Average 95 Days on Market for Sold Listings

August Numbers - Preliminary *While all of these numbers are subject to revision next month, the Sold Listings tend to have the most radical revision. I am estimating 700 closed sales for July.

*While all of these numbers are subject to revision next month, the Sold Listings tend to have the most radical revision. I am estimating 700 closed sales for July.

Days on Market (DoM)

Conclusions Days on Market usually drop in April, May and June. I expected to see mid-90 DoM for May (at 96), June (at 90), and July came in at 86. Preliminary for August is 95. A drop in the final numbers would be nice. We saw July drop 6 days from prelim to final. I’d look for a low 90s in Sept. as a strong sign.

Days on Market usually drop in April, May and June. I expected to see mid-90 DoM for May (at 96), June (at 90), and July came in at 86.

Preliminary for August is 95. A drop in the final numbers would be nice. We saw July drop 6 days from prelim to final.

I’d look for a low 90s in Sept. as a strong sign.

New, Pending & Sold Listings

Conclusions I expect to see August Sales come in around 650 units. I was 10 low for June… Last month I was looking for New Listings under 1900, and the prelims are 1850. I’d like to be under 1750 for Sept.

I expect to see August Sales come in around 650 units. I was 10 low for June…

Last month I was looking for New Listings under 1900, and the prelims are 1850.

I’d like to be under 1750 for Sept.

July Absorption Rates 9806 Listings on the market in Gwinnett County at the end of April, and sales averaged over 12, 6 and 3 month periods. 12 month average: 15.2 months inventory 6 month average: 15.0 months inventory 3 month average: 13.2 months inventory

9806 Listings on the market in Gwinnett County at the end of April, and sales averaged over 12, 6 and 3 month periods.

12 month average: 15.2 months inventory

6 month average: 15.0 months inventory

3 month average: 13.2 months inventory

August Absorption Rates 9534 Listings on the market in Gwinnett County at the end of August, and sales averaged over 12, 6 and 3 month periods. 12 month average: 16.0 months inventory 6 month average: 15.4 months inventory 3 month average: 15.9 months inventory

9534 Listings on the market in Gwinnett County at the end of August, and sales averaged over 12, 6 and 3 month periods.

12 month average: 16.0 months inventory

6 month average: 15.4 months inventory

3 month average: 15.9 months inventory

Conclusions August numbers aren’t final, but they are probably going to show a seasonal weakening of the market. Last month I was calling for July to end up under 13.5 months supply, and it came in at 13.2. I’m looking for 14 months in August after the final numbers come in. There is still a long way to go. 6 months of supply is considered balanced.

August numbers aren’t final, but they are probably going to show a seasonal weakening of the market.

Last month I was calling for July to end up under 13.5 months supply, and it came in at 13.2. I’m looking for 14 months in August after the final numbers come in.

There is still a long way to go. 6 months of supply is considered balanced.

New/Sold Ratio This ratio compares new listings and sold listings for a given month. It is useful to sellers in determining a pricing strategy.

This ratio compares new listings and sold listings for a given month. It is useful to sellers in determining a pricing strategy.

New/Sold Ratio In July, 33% as many homes sold as were listed during the month. This means that on average, for each 3 homes that were put up for sale, 1 sold. In August, early numbers point to 18% (1:5), but I expect to see that upgrade to 35% for the final numbers.

In July, 33% as many homes sold as were listed during the month. This means that on average, for each 3 homes that were put up for sale, 1 sold.

In August, early numbers point to 18% (1:5), but I expect to see that upgrade to 35% for the final numbers.

New/Sold Ratio

Conclusion The weakness of the N/S% shows that few homes are priced attractively to Buyers. This number tops around 67% Anything under 33% is very weak. Look for the mid 30s this summer. The latest month is always suspect, as the final numbers are never the same as preliminary.

The weakness of the N/S% shows that few homes are priced attractively to Buyers.

This number tops around 67%

Anything under 33% is very weak.

Look for the mid 30s this summer.

The latest month is always suspect, as the final numbers are never the same as preliminary.

Average Sales Price July - $220,446 Down 9.6% from July, 2007 August - $219,110 Down 11.1% from August 2007

July - $220,446 Down 9.6% from July, 2007

August - $219,110 Down 11.1% from August 2007

Average Sales Price Average prices may be volatile, affected by strong or weak sales of homes priced in particular ranges. This number doesn’t really give an indication of market direction except in the broadest sense.

Average prices may be volatile, affected by strong or weak sales of homes priced in particular ranges.

This number doesn’t really give an indication of market direction except in the broadest sense.

List Price/Sales Price Ratio July – 95.25% August – 95.72% Over the last few years Sale Prices generally held between 97% and 98.5% of List, although there have been some dips into the high 96% range in the last few months. Honestly, though, this isn’t a huge indicator of the market.

July – 95.25%

August – 95.72%

Over the last few years Sale Prices generally held between 97% and 98.5% of List, although there have been some dips into the high 96% range in the last few months.

Honestly, though, this isn’t a huge indicator of the market.

Conclusion List/Sale Price % gives an indication of Buyer strength. It also shows whether Sellers are being realistic with pricing. The indications are also very general.

List/Sale Price % gives an indication of Buyer strength.

It also shows whether Sellers are being realistic with pricing.

The indications are also very general.

Overall Conclusion While I always expect to see seasonal increases this time of year, the numbers are fairly strong. Yet, August prelims are looking a little weaker than I’d like. Last year I was calling for a 2 nd Quarter recovery in Gwinnett, but we need to see how Fall goes to know if there is recovery or just positive seasonality. There are some great deals, and there are some dogs. The key is finding the right deals. Keeping perspective, sales are cyclical. This is a good time for investment… not a great time to sell without a strategy.

While I always expect to see seasonal increases this time of year, the numbers are fairly strong. Yet, August prelims are looking a little weaker than I’d like.

Last year I was calling for a 2 nd Quarter recovery in Gwinnett, but we need to see how Fall goes to know if there is recovery or just positive seasonality.

There are some great deals, and there are some dogs. The key is finding the right deals.

Keeping perspective, sales are cyclical. This is a good time for investment… not a great time to sell without a strategy.