Real Estate Trends Real Estate Trends For the Hillsborough & Pasco County Markets The data provided has been researched from the Greater Tampa Association of Realtors Mid-Florida Regional Multiple Listing Service. The opinions and forecast of future Real Estate Trends are provided by Mario Polo. January 2009
Where Are We Going Where Is The Market Going? <ul><li>Existing Home Sales and New Home Sales have fallen to a level not seen since 1998. Approximately 5.0 Million existing home sales and 600,000 new home sales will have been recorded once 2008 has finished. Barring more bad news, 2008 will be the year of the trough in Residential Home Sales. The assumption of no more bad news also takes into account that politicians won’t do anything that further retards recovery in the housing market. </li></ul><ul><li>POSITIVE NEWS: </li></ul><ul><li>The December 2008 Sales & Listing Data was much improved over previous months. If the first quarter numbers continue to improve, as indicated in the December 2008 numbers, we may see a turnaround in the market. </li></ul><ul><li>In analyzing the data from September 2008 through December 2008, we have seen the following: </li></ul><ul><li>Increase in sales of 571 units sold – a 13.5% increase </li></ul><ul><li>Slowing down in the reduction of Average Sales Price - which may indicate we are near the bottom </li></ul><ul><li>The reduction of inventory (unsold units) by 1459 – a decrease of 7.6% </li></ul><ul><li>Our Months of Inventory of unsold units decreasing to 14.62 months. </li></ul><ul><li>… Commentary continued on page 2 </li></ul>1 January 2009
Where Are We Going … Commentary continued from page 1 All of these are positive signs which we will watch closely in the months ahead. P.S. The following is a recap of the listing and sales history from 2004 – through December 2008. This information is provided from our Mid-Florida Regional Multiple Listing Service and most of these transactions occurred in Hillsborough and Pasco Counties. 2 January 2009 Where Is The Market Going?
Monthly Sales Monthly Sales Number of transactions are the number of closed sales that have taken place in a particular month. This is a strong indicator in determining the direction of the market. The data on the following pages shows that from January 2007 through December 2008, closed sales have been in the range of 1000-1300 closings with the exception of 4 months. POSITIVE NEWS: December 2008 Closed Sales were 1207 which was a 9.8% increase of December 2007 Closed Sales. I believe that our monthly first quarter closed sales will increase 10% - 20% compared to the first quarter of 2008. 3 January 2009
Monthly Sales Line Monthly Sales Prepared by ERA The Polo Group, Inc.
Average Sales Price Average Sales Price POSITIVE NEWS: For the first time since May 2008, the Average Sales Price increased from $182,313 in November 2008 to $186,297, an increase of 2.2%. While short sales and foreclosures will continue to challenge our market values, this may be an indication that home values are starting to stabilize. 5 January 2009
Average Sales Price Line Average Sales Price Prepared by ERA The Polo Group, Inc.
Current Inventory Current Inventory POSITIVE NEWS: A normal market is widely considered to be one that has six months of homes available for sale. Our current availability of homes for sale is 17,650, which is 10,408 more homes available than our current monthly sales can absorb. It should be noted that the total number of unsold homes decreased by 7.3% from the November 2008 total. This decrease may be attributed to our recent holidays and not a true reflection of an ongoing trend. Also, compared to December 2007, the current number of homes for sale are 1704 fewer in December 2008. 7 January 2009
Current Inventory Line Current Inventory Prepared by ERA The Polo Group, Inc.
Months of Inventory Months of Inventory POSITIVE NEWS: As stated previously, a normal market is considered to be one that has six months of homes available for sale. This is considered to be a balanced market where neither buyer or seller has an advantage based on available supply. As you can see on our charts, in 2005 our market was as low as 1.2 months of supply of homes for sale. This created a tremendous advantage for home sellers. Currently we are experiencing a supply of homes for sale of 14.62 months, creating a tremendous advantage to home buyers. Our December 2008 Inventory number has improved compared to December 2007. (14.62 vs. 17.61) If this number continues to decrease, this would continue to help stabilize home values. 9 January 2009
Months of Inventory Line Months of Inventory Prepared by ERA The Polo Group, Inc.
Summation Summation <ul><li>OVER ALL POSITIVE NEWS: </li></ul><ul><li>Monthly Sales have bottomed and should increase in 2009 </li></ul><ul><li>Decrease in Average Sales Price may be bottoming out in preparation for a positive 2009 </li></ul><ul><li>Inventory has improved slowly, but much work needs to be done in this area </li></ul><ul><li>Months of Inventory have also slowly improved </li></ul><ul><li>If Sales improve in 2009, all of these indicators will create further positive trends for 2009. </li></ul>11 January 2009
Summation Summation 12 January 2009 <ul><li>The data suggests that our market may improve in the months ahead. We had positive data on increased sales, increase in the Average Sales Price and decrease in Current Inventory (unsold homes) and Months of Inventory. </li></ul><ul><li>As of this date, we have a new President and White House Staff </li></ul><ul><li>A new stimulus package is being proposed </li></ul><ul><li>Several new proposals to stimulate housing and decrease foreclosures </li></ul><ul><li>A new tax credit for all home buyers </li></ul><ul><li>These are just a few of the ideas being considered that will stimulate home sales. </li></ul>