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p値はダメなのか? (BASPの仮説検定禁止令を読む)
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Keisuke Hara
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p値はダメなのか? BASPの仮説検定禁止令を読む (2015/06/09 続わかパタ読書会; LT資料)
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p値はダメなのか? (BASPの仮説検定禁止令を読む)
1.
値はダメなのか? 「 値禁止令」を読む 原啓介 続わかパタ読書会
2.
自己紹介 I 原啓介 はら
けいすけ I I I 経歴など I 元、数学者 某私立 大学教授 確率論 I 現、ニュース推薦系零細 企業の I 他に翻訳など 「世界を変えた手紙」 デブリン著 岩波書店
3.
が 値禁止を宣言!
4.
「今から、 は 仮説検定
を禁止する」 !
5.
値を使っている論文は自動的に却下? I いいえ。しかし出版にあたって の痕跡
有意性 に関する 値、 値、 値、 は全て消してもらう。
6.
信頼区間やベイズ推定など他の統計的推測について はどうか? I 信頼区間は禁止。ベイズ推定は禁止しないが、要求もし ない。
7.
に関して各推定の問題点 I の問題点 帰無仮説が与えられての実現の確率と、 実現を与えられての帰無仮説の確率を行き来している I
信頼区間の問題点 区間は「その区間に真値がある確率 が 」の意味ではない。 と同じ問題 I I ベイズ推定の問題点 ラプラスの仮定 一様な事前確率 の 問題
8.
要求される統計的推測の手続は何かあるか? I 現状では、ない。しかし、強い記述的統計を求む。 I 可能な場合には、頻度や分布のデータを示してほしい。より 多いサンプルサイズも求む。
9.
「宣言」の結び I これで投稿論文の質が落ちるとは思っていない I があまりに簡単にクリアできることが問題 I
の問題点と呪縛から開放されて、より良い論文になる
10.
今日のところの結論 I は統計学の基本が分かっていない馬鹿ではない I 多分「ソフトな科学」での統計的推測は悩ましい I
「 値禁止令」はなかなか味わい深い文章 I この問題についてさらに理解を深めたい人のための参考文献 I I
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