Poster presented by Prof. Greg Marsden at TRB 2015. www.its.leeds.ac.uk/people/g.marsden www.trb.org/AnnualMeeting2015/annualmeeting2015.aspx www.disruptionproject.net

1. 1. Introduction
This paper asks if standard decision-making tools and logics
can be applied to disruptive events. In particular we explore
whether user costs/benefits are likely to be truly
representative of the costs/benefits experienced during
periods of disruption, and therefore whether cost benefit
analysis methods are appropriate for the assessment of
policies/interventions that ameliorate the impacts of
disruptions.
Issues in Evaluating Transport and Land-Use
Interventions in the Face of Disruption
James Laird, Greg Marsden and Jeremy Shires, Institute for Transport Studies, University of Leeds, UK
Email: J.J.Laird@its.leeds.ac.uk, G.R.Marsden@its.leeds.ac.uk and J.D.Shires@its.leeds.ac.uk
6. Conclusion
This research challenges the way we currently calculate the costs
and benefits of disruptive events. The challenges can be considered
two-fold.
First, there are clear behavioural adaptations going on which are not
adequately modelled in existing transport assessments. These
include reorganising/ rescheduling (over longer periods), reallocation
of tasks and roles and broader changes in social norms.
Second, there are uncertainties about how to treat some of the
impacts that are seen with traditional economic tools such as
multiple markets (e.g. cancellations) and non-marginal changes (in
services and journey times).
Given the increasing frequency of extreme weather event and the
scale of demands for spending on resilience alternative assessment
procedures may be necessary to ensure good value for money.
5. Implications of real flooding and winter
weather for transport cost benefit analysis
Breakdown in the rule of half. There is evidence of large cost
changes. There is a need for an alternative to the rule of a half.
Marginal costs of disruption. There is evidence of tremendous
heterogeneity across the population. Impacts on some
households is low and in others it is high – resilience varies
across the population. Temporal variation is likely too. Assuming
a fixed marginal value of time is therefore overly strong.
Impacts across multiple markets. In some instances the
transport causes the disruption to activities, but in others the
weather disrupts the activities which changes the need to travel.
A multiple market analysis may be required.
Risk minimisation. Some households engage in risk
minimisation strategies trading off income for higher resilience.
The implications is that risk premiums exist.
Policies that increase resilience. The policy toolkit includes
non-transport related interventions: flexible working, tele-working,
and land use intensification. Difficult to assess these in a
transport cost benefit analysis framework. A broader framework
may be necessary.
3. Winter weather
2. Transport Cost Benefit Analysis
4. Flood
"Financially we think it will cost £20m for each day the line is closed... to
have it disconnected is a major blow.“
• Are we making the right resilience investments?
• Can we use our traditional CBA tools?
• Exploring the challenges through data on real disruptions
Construction
costs
By NASA [Public domain], via Wikimedia
Commons
Nigel Corby
Activity Delayed
Start
Delayed
Finish
Post-poned Cancel New
Destn
Conducted At
Home
Other n
Commute 49% 32% 8% 41% 2% 12% 5% 974
Biz Travel 21% 17% 41% 41% 2% 5% 4% 126
Return Home 26% 46% 16% 16% 4% 0% 5% 74
Health 7% 7% 48% 37% 0% 0% 7% 85
School/ Child Care 14% 5% 10% 80% 0% 3% 2% 278
Other Care 22% 23% 34% 25% 1% 8% 9% 77
Shopping 16% 8% 46% 34% 5% 5% 2% 250
Sport 3% 1% 24% 75% 1% 0% 0% 113
Leisure 5% 3% 28% 59% 2% 1% 7% 151
Family/ Friends 9% 4% 46% 45% 2% 2% 1% 194
Other 12% 8% 15% 24% 1% 1% 11% 95
2013 - fortnight of severe
winter weather. More than
5000 schools were closed
on 21st January. On-line
survey in the most
affected parts of the
country. 2417 responses
were received
Considerable temporal
flexibility
• Trips > 10 miles less likely to be cancelled
• Trips > 50 miles more likely to be rearranged
• Past experience matters – more likely to work from home and use
other modes
5 of the top 6 wettest years on record in the UK have been
since the year 2000. Widespread disruption to networks
and associated damage through landslips.
Qualitative research in the City of York (population
c200,000) during the Autumn of 2012 – the second most
severe flood on record. Bridge and road closures as well
as managed closure of parts of city centre (which hapens
most years).
Non-marginal journey time changes:
“it is normally a 15-20 minute journey into town, and as I
said, it was about 10 past 5 before I got home, it took me
an hour and a half to get back from town to home.”
Differential impacts of loss of transport services:
“Like, I have to rely on the buses, the bus service,
because I don’t drive and obviously when the bus stopped
coming, well…” – cyclists were less affected as the river
crossing remained open.
Quite differentiated impacts across household structures:
School closures affect families with two workers. Single
parent families reported it being more difficult to cope,
particularly when carers could not travel.
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Grant EP/J00460X/1