Seeing the wood from the trees

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Seeing the wood from the trees

  1. 1. "BEING A STATISTICIAN MEANS NEVER HAVING TO SAY YOU’RE CERTAIN" Graham Norwood
  2. 2. THE SALES MARKET FIGURES Office for National Statistics: £242,000 Up 3.1% Land Registry: £164,098 Up 0.8% Halifax/Bank of Scotland: £170,733 Up 6.2% Nationwide: £172,127 Up 5.0% Rightmove: £245,495 Up 4.5% LSL Property Services: £233,776 Up 3.2%
  3. 3. AND I DIDN’T MENTION... Hometrack.... RICS.... Mouseprice.... Knight Frank.... Savills.... Nethouseprice... the Zed-Index.... ...or Sentiment Indices, Confidence Indices or Market Barometers... ...or ‘the nations’ and regions. Surely the Lettings market is more rational......
  4. 4. THE LETTINGS MARKET FIGURES LSL Property Services: £743 Up 1.3% Move With Us: £970 Up 0.36% Office for National Statistics: Up 1.3% And then there are the RICS, ARLA, Homelet, Zoopla Rent v Buy Index, Spareroom.co.uk Room Index, Savills, Knight Frank, CML Buy-To-Let Mortgage Index...
  5. 5. THE QUESTIONS TO ASK What Geography? Rightmove is UK but Hometrack only England & Wales ONS is Britain but Land Registry only England & Wales Generally, excluding Scotland/Wales skews prices up And what about the regions, sub-regions, cities, parishes...?
  6. 6. THE QUESTIONS TO ASK Who Contributes? Estate agents only? (Hometrack) Surveyors? (RICS) Buyers? (ONS, Land Registry) or Sellers? (Rightmove) Lettings Agents (ARLA) or Landlords? (Move With Us)
  7. 7. THE QUESTIONS TO ASK What Point In The Cycle? Halifax and Nationwide - mortgage offer Rightmove - asking price ONS/Land Registry - completions
  8. 8. THE QUESTIONS TO ASK What Is The Sample? What geographical area? Are there exclusions (eg, ex-LA or very high value)? Mortgage applicants only or cash buyers too? Will London/SE skew overall result?
  9. 9. THE QUESTIONS TO ASK How Timely Is The Index Released? Monthly Or Quarterly? Completions ‘Slow’ But Asking Price/Rent ‘Fast’ Is There Historical Data? (Halifax, Land Registry)
  10. 10. THE QUESTIONS TO ASK Why Does The Index Exist? To Inform Public And/Or Industry? (RICS, for example) Policy-making? (ONS, Halifax for example) To Sell Something? (Rightmove, Hometrack for example)
  11. 11. THE QUESTIONS TO ASK WHAT IS THE EFFECT OF INFLATION? The forgotten element, missing from every index
  12. 12. THE ONES I LIKE... RICS because it is accountable... Halifax/Nationwide because they have regional data... LSL because its lettings data is approachable... Land Registry because it breaks it down to LA level... ...but for what it’s worth...
  13. 13. MY VIEW Ask a proven, trusted professional... ...on the ground ...working day to day ...dealing with landlords and tenants, buyers and sellers ...and keep the indices ‘direction of travel’ as a broad guide.
  14. 14. AND PLEASE REMEMBER 3.5 statisticians out of 7 over-complicate things

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