SOUTHERN AFRICA                                                                                                   Horizon ...
1                                                                  ECONOMIC ISSUES POVERTY, DEVELOPMENT AND DONOR         ...
2corruption and manage the effects of climate         market, especially in the growing Africanchange will also feature.  ...
3Southern African rulers eyeing the                   state coffers. “It is doubtful that countriesmoney, not development ...
4Africa. The countries which are involved in          nuclear weapons and non-proliferation) andOkavango/Zambeze        to...
5of low importance due to low prevalence, are         a slow-onset disaster, leading to a long-termbecoming major causes o...
6Cape Town, for example, the Americans and            corruption. A networked world, governancethe Firm (names of gangs) h...
7the past ten years, the report points to the           an ‘inverted U-shaped’ relationship betweenresilience they have sh...
8and minerals. He advocates that the large            Drainage (AMD) effluent streams, to a levelvolume of salt that becom...
9           TECHNOLOGY ISSUES                         Africas largest and latest fibre-optic                              ...
10upgraded to the design capacity of 5.12              amount of ‘off the wall’ ideas but someterabits per second (Tbps). ...
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Poverty, Developments and Donor Issues

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Poverty, Developments and Donor Issues

  1. 1. SOUTHERN AFRICA Horizon Scan Issue 20, April 2011 POVERTY, DEVELOPMENT AND DONOR ISSUES 1 The poor will suffer more as a result of projected oil price increases 1 ECONOMIC ISSUES 1 World Economic Forum on Africa 2011: “From Vision to Action, Africa’s Next Chapter” 1 South Africa, deemed the gateway to Africa, joins the BRIC economic group 2 Southern African rulers eyeing the money, not development 3 The Economic contribution of tourism in Mozambique – Insight from a social accounting matrix. 3 Zimbabwe and Angola tourism updates 3 POLITICAL ISSUES 4 India and South Africa as Partners for Development in Africa? 4 SOCIAL ISSUES 4 Few service providers have planned for an ageing African HIV-positive population because no one expected this group to survive to old age 4 Swaziland’s unmatched HIV-Aids epidemic can most plausibly be traced to a unique combination of biological, economic, social and cultural factors 5 The challenge, and contradictions, of organised crime and urbanisation in Africa 5 Cities report looks at future 6 ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUES 7 Middle income households may become more vulnerable to droughts as they transition away from traditional agriculture towards more modern agricultural livelihood strategies - evidence from Malawi and Botswana 7 South Africa’s acid mine drainage wastewater is ‘mineable’ 7 TECHNOLOGY ISSUES 9 New technology that can diagnose patients with tuberculosis (TB) in two hours 9 Africas largest and latest fibre-optic submarine cable has brought a number of firsts to South Africa and the continent. 9 Umbono update: A blog post by Brett Commaille dated 26 April 2011 10The information and commentary expressed here are the selection and views of the scanning organisation and do not necessarily reflect the views and opinions of the Rockefeller Foundation
  2. 2. 1 ECONOMIC ISSUES POVERTY, DEVELOPMENT AND DONOR ISSUES World Economic Forum on Africa 2011: “From Vision to Action, Africa’s NextThe poor will suffer more as a result of Chapter”projected oil price increases Africa’s economic potential will come underSome recent ODI (Overseas Development the spotlight next week when more than 700Institute) research looks at the potential representatives of the world’s leadingimpacts of a one third increase in oil prices corporations, governments and civil societyover the next two years (which they argue is organisations descend on Cape Town for thea reasonable projection, given historical annual meeting of the World Economic Forumexperience of the effects of MENA (Middle (WEF) on Africa. They will be discussing howEast and North Africa) region conflicts on oil to realise the potential of the continent, oneprices): of the fastest-growing regions in the world The study suggests that some of the with growth projected by the Internationalpoorest countries could lose up to 4% of their Monetary Fund to reach 5.5% in sub-SaharanGDP. Those likely to lose more than 3% of Africa this year and 5.9% next year.GDP as a result of a one-third increase in oil Opportunities for investment in mining,prices include Ghana, Honduras, Lesotho, energy, agriculture, infrastructure, tourismSwaziland, Togo, Moldova and Nicaragua. and the green economy will be explored andThose likely to lose more than 1% of GDP political trends analysed, including those ininclude Burkina Faso, Burundi, Ethiopia, the Middle East.Malawi, Mali, Mozambique, Nepal and Africa’s mineral wealth and economicNiger. This is assuming that there are no prospects have attracted significantmarket or policy interventions. At national investments by China, India and otherlevel, government balances could worsen in countries but the continent faces significantcountries where oil prices are controlled, and challenges, such as instability in globalchanges in oil price structures may lead to financial markets and commodity prices,protests as seen in Indonesia (1998), Nigeria climate change, and how to make its growth(2000) and Yemen (2005). sustainable and inclusive. This year’s forum Fortunately, the fiscal position in has the theme “From Vision to Action,some developing countries that have been Africa’s Next Chapter”. In promoting thegrowing is fine, but this certainly not the event, World Economic Forum director andcase for others that have seen the fiscal head of Africa, Katherine Tweedie,balances worsen due to a number of shocks highlighted the improved political and(Swaziland is a case in point). macroeconomic stability in Africa, the At the household level a review of the strengthened political commitment toevidence finds that both rich and poor private-sector investment, and the improvedhouseholds suffer as a result of oil price access to basic education and social services.increases, but the poor tend to suffer more. But she said that strong leadership andThere are direct effects, with the poor political will would be necessary if Africa’sspending a large share of their small incomes growth was to become inclusive and itson oil and oil products. In Ghana, development sustainable through the use ofGuatemala, India, Nepal, South Africa and its financial resources.Vietnam, the poorest households may spend “It will also depend on the ability toas much as 3-4% of their income on craft innovative partnerships betweenkerosene, compared to little more than 1% of business and civil society, as well as thethe richest households. empowerment of small and medium enterprises that continue to be the mainThere are also indirect effects, with rising providers of income across the continent,”transport costs affecting the poor more than Tweedie said. One of the sub-themes willthe rich. The evidence suggests that rising oil focus on how African economies can mitigateprices and falling GDP have a direct impact their exposure to commodity price volatility;on the most vulnerable people. It is boost their representation in multilateralestimated that a drop of 1% in African GDP organisations; hasten regional integration;could increase the number of infant deaths and tap into global financial markets.by 5 000 each year, and child deaths by A second theme will look at ways toaround 10 000. In countries that are more foster the champions of Africa’s growth andsensitive to falling incomes the impact could examine the drivers of competitiveness, suchbe worse. as industrial diversification and innovation. The third strand of debate will deal with ways to achieve inclusive growth and sustainable development. Debates on how to combatSouthern Africa Horizon Scan, Issue 20, April 2011
  3. 3. 2corruption and manage the effects of climate market, especially in the growing Africanchange will also feature. market.Source: Source:http://www.businessday.co.za/articles/Content.asp http://www.engineeringnews.co.za/article/businesx?id=141193 s-and-govt-alignment-key-to-reaping-benefits-of- brics-2011-04-20. See also hereThe themes, sub-themes and topics of WEF http://www.fin24.com/Economy/SA-eyes-billions- in-Brics-investment-20110419 , hereAfrica 2011 are all highly relevant, but http://www.businessday.co.za/articles/Content.aspwhether the gathering and its dialogues x?id=141089 and heremake any difference, is a moot point. http://www.thedailymaverick.co.za/article/2010-Harvard University historian Niall Ferguson’s 10-04-being-part-of-bric-could-help-sa-smash-comments on the WEF Davos gathering many-walls for good analysis and coverage oncomes to mind: “The mood [at WEF] is various angles of the issue.always a counter-indicator. It is a consensusnot to be believed in - the more complacency BRICS vital statistics[in this case perhaps optimism] there is, themore I’m worried.”South Africa, deemed the gateway toAfrica, joins the BRIC economic groupThe possibility was first mentioned in theFebruary 2010 Scan, and on 13 April 2011South Africa joined the BRIC economicgroup, now renamed BRICS. The foundingnations - Brazil, Russia, India and China –and now South Africa, are in a similar stateof economic development, although SouthAfrica ranks lower according to severalsignificant indicators. However, despite itssmall standing in terms of statistics (seebelow), South Africa is viewed as a gatewayinto the rest of Africa and its rich naturalresources and millions of consumers, and assuch, is of great value to the other nations asa strategic partner. Many commentators, including JimO’Neil, who originally coined the term, didnot agree with South Africa’s inclusion in thisgrouping, but Webber Wentzel partner PeterLeon believes that South Africa’s invitationwas “all about the minerals”. “South Africa issitting on the world’s biggest set of mineralresource with reserves worth US $2,3-trillion.Further, in the context of the rest of mineral-rich Africa, South Africa has the mostdeveloped infrastructure and the deepestcapital markets. However, he emphasised ‘So what!?’ for the poor and disenfranchisedthat if the country really wanted to leverage of Southern Africa:its position as a gateway to the rest of the The key reasons to explain escaping fromcontinent, it seriously needed to consider poverty are largely equity related: changes ineliminating exchange and capital controls. economic and social assets (e.g. changes in“Issues such as trade liberalisation, and even employment, land, ownership and education)free trade agreements, between other and/or social exclusion and discriminationmembers of the BRICS as well as other and/or location in remote or otherwiseAfrican countries need to come to fruition.” disadvantaged areas. Growth and trade, South African Institute for though (and this is where there is potentialInternational Affairs (Saiia) CEO Elizabeth from the new BRICS relationship) is a majorSidiropoulos said that South African business (potential) source of government revenue toand government needed to start working as a finance public expenditure, which can beunited force, much like the other Brics designed to be explicitly pro-poorest, formembers, to position itself as a competitive, example through broad based expenditure onbut also a cooperative, force in the global education and health.Southern Africa Horizon Scan, Issue 20, April 2011
  4. 4. 3Southern African rulers eyeing the state coffers. “It is doubtful that countriesmoney, not development like Swaziland and Lesotho will be keen onA new revenue sharing formula in the that,” opines Kruger. “For them, it is moreSouthern African Customs Union (SACU) important than anything else to get thecould boost development but has met with money.” According to Kruger it will be veryresistance from the governments of poorer difficult to continue with other items beforestates in the sub-region that are interested in the revenue-sharing issue is solved. These“just getting the money”. [As mentioned in other issues include SACU’s commonprevious editions of Scan] the South African industrial policy, the trade facilitationgovernment’s treasury department wants a programme focused on relaxing borderrevision of the formula. Smaller member procedures, external trade agreements andstates Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia and common institutions like the SACU tariffSwaziland (BLNS) argue that SACU’s board and tribunal. There has been littlecommon external tariff (CET) gives South movement on any of these since 2002. Source: http://www.tralac.org/cgi-Africa an instrument to protect its own bin/giga.cgi?cmd=cause_dir_news_item&cause_idindustry, while the level playing field in the =1694&news_id=100903&cat_id=1026union makes it hard for the peripheralcountries to build their own industrial basesand compete with their much larger The Economic contribution of tourism inneighbour’s products and services. For this Mozambique – Insight from a socialthey deserve to be compensated, they argue. accounting matrix.At the 25 March 2011 heads of state meetingin Pretoria “a lot of time was spent on How much tourism contributes to theworking out the formulation of a new economies of developing countries ismechanism, but nothing definite was decided controversial and often not measuredon”, said researcher Paul Kruger of the Trade rigorously. Focusing on Mozambique, aLaw Centre of Southern Africa (Tralac). recent study by S. Jones in the Development In a recent article, Southern African Southern Africa journal presents a simpleCustoms Union: Myths and Reality, Catherine accounting tool – a tourist-focused SocialGrant, senior researcher at the South African Accounting Matrix – which makes it possibleInstitute of International Affairs (SAIIA), and to estimate the economic contribution ofa colleague warned against an “unrealistic’’ various tourism sub-types. Multiplier analysisperception of the balance of power in SACU. is applied to evaluate the strength of“South Africa feels that it cannot be expected backward linkages from tourism to theto receive less than that it is due, [whilst] in domestic economy. The results show thethe BLNS countries there is a shocking lack of sector is moderate in size but has theunderstanding of the realities.” According to potential to contribute significantly toGrant the South African treasury is frustrated aggregate economic development. However,over having to hand over so much money, potential weaknesses are already evident andwithout really having control over it. “Most careful attention must be paid to the fullnotable is the case of Swaziland where there tourism value chain. Source: Development Southern Africa, Vol 27 (5)is little fiscal discipline and the budget is (subscription required, full article available oncontrolled by the (autocratic) royal family.” request)In Grant’s opinion South Africa should betopping up the revenues for reasons of Zimbabwe and Angola tourism updatespolitical stability and economic policy but the Meanwhile Zimbabwe’s tourism earningsformula shouldn’t just focus on trade. It jumped 47% last year to US $770 millionshould rather stimulate development. But, it while the number of visitors rose 15% to 2.3will be very difficult to get countries on million, according to the Zimbabwe Tourismboard. Previous changes in the revenue Authority Tourism Trends and Statisticssharing formula were triggered by significant Report for 2010. The report indicates thatpolitical events, such as independence tourist arrivals were 2 239 165 representingstruggles and the end of apartheid. The an 11% increase from 2009. Of the 2 239current revision is mainly inspired by the 165 arrivals received by Zimbabwe last year,recession and a couple of years of experience Africa contributed 87% followed by Europewith the current revenue formula, which (6%), the Americas (3%) and Asia (2%).South Africa now wants to renegotiate. Such Source:changes are not significant enough to drive http://allafrica.com/stories/201104280185.htmlthe process. One of the options on the table is to Angola has made 87 000 square kilometresincrease the development component of the of land available under thepool with funds, for instance, going to Okavango/Zambeze tourist project which isregional infrastructure projects instead of comprised by five countries of the SouthernSouthern Africa Horizon Scan, Issue 20, April 2011
  5. 5. 4Africa. The countries which are involved in nuclear weapons and non-proliferation) andOkavango/Zambeze tourist project are trade relations.Angola, Botswana, Namibia, Zambia and Some of the key points in the paper include:Zimbabwe. According to Amélia Cazalma,  The engagement of India and SouthAngolan executive co-ordinator of the Africa in Africa can be explained as muchproject, the Okavango/Zambeze project is a by the shifts in global power andtrans-border initiative and it is an ambitious realpolitik as by their desire to be seen toproject aimed at developing the be playing a positive developmental rolecommunities. Cazalma said that the project and shouldering global responsibilities.will also facilitate the integration and  India articulates its Africa policy throughprotection of the communities, the social and a national-interest prism, especially witheconomic development, biodiversity regard to energy security, trade andprotection at the member countries, as well terrorism. Development cooperation is aas the economic growth of the eastern by-product of its engagement in AfricaKuando-Kubango province. rather than a central driving force.Source:http://www.portalangop.co.ao/motix/en_us  South Africa is currently reassessing how/noticias/economia/2011/3/17/Angola-avails-000- it articulates its national interest in thesquare-kilometres-land-for-tourist-project,b98cfa94-66c9-469c-b43d- context of its African agenda. It sees0cd251b90e3b.html India’s engagement in Africa in a positive light, especially its focus on human- resource development, ICT andThe Okavango/Zambeze tourist project is a agriculture.Peace Parks Foundation initiative. The PeaceParks Foundation, based in Stellenbosch,  While cooperation between the twofacilitates the establishment of trans-frontier countries may be possible in certainconservation areas (peace parks) and areas such as the India Brazil Southdevelops human resources, thereby Africa Forum (IBSA), in others it may besupporting sustainable economic too politically sensitive for them to bedevelopment, the conservation of biodiversity perceived to be working together. Bothand regional peace and stability. It is a aim to advance their commercialuniquely innovative and ambitious endeavour interests on the continent, which implieswell worth monitoring for the (unexpected) an element of rivalry.benefits it may hold for the region. See here  There is scope for deepening thehttp://www.peaceparks.org/tfca.php?pid=27 substance of political and economic&mid=1008 for more information about the relations between India and South Africa,Okavango/Zambeze, aka Kavango/Zambezi which has been hampered by capacity(Kaza) project, and here constraints on both sides and differinghttp://www.peaceparks.org/story.php?pid=1 priorities. Development cooperation00&mid=28 for more information about the between the two in Africa is not a priorityWildlife Management and Tourism colleges. for either but using the private sector in this field is an important potential model. The paper can be downloaded from here: http://www.saiia.org.za/images/stories/research/e POLITICAL ISSUES xtn/india_sa_chatham_house_paper_march_2011. pdfIndia and South Africa as Partners forDevelopment in Africa?The South African Institute of International SOCIAL ISSUESAffairs (SAIIA), has collaborated withChatham House in London to produce a new Few service providers have planned forbriefing paper entitled: ‘India and South an ageing African HIV-positiveAfrica as Partners for Development in Africa?’ population because no one expected thisThe paper unpacks the relationship between group to survive to old ageIndia and South Africa, two countries who In a recent article by Mills et al in The Lancetcooperate in many ways including through it is argued that ‘as the AIDS epidemicthe IBSA (India, Brazil and South Africa) matures, evidence is emerging that poorlyforum and the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, managed HIV infection exacerbates ageingChina and South Africa) grouping. But they diseases, leading to increased morbidity andalso compete on other instances, especially mortality, and that exacerbated chronicon what the African continent has to offer. diseases should now be considered AIDS-The paper examines many of the convergent related. Cohort evaluations indicate that non-and divergent areas and sets out the various AIDS cancers, pulmonary diseases,approaches to issues such as multilateral osteoporosis, and age-related blindness,reform, security matters (such as terrorism, which might previously have been consideredSouthern Africa Horizon Scan, Issue 20, April 2011
  6. 6. 5of low importance due to low prevalence, are a slow-onset disaster, leading to a long-termbecoming major causes of reduced quality of catastrophe and requiring an urgent,life and causes of death’. In Africa, where the sustained response.’focus of attention to date has been on theprovision of emergency care for the most Unique (complex) problems require uniquevulnerable (i.e., children, mothers and solutions and a deep understanding of theirseverely immuno-compromised patients), co-producing factors. Swaziland is nowherefew service providers have planned for an near dealing with its HIV-Aids scourge,ageing African HIV-positive population especially not given its current financial crisisbecause no one expected this group to and sovereign risk issues (see the Marchsurvive to old age. However, the proportion 2011 Scan). Despite the gloomy prognosisof older persons in Africa infected with for Swaziland, the HIV-Aids epidemic can beHIV/AIDS is increasing. ‘This brings both addressed, viz. recent declines in Zimbabwegood and bad news: good news because (March 2011 Scan) due to changes in socialincreased access to treatments means that behaviour, and the rollout of antiretrovirals inpatients are living with longer life South Africa where the Actuarial Society ofexpectancy; bad news because meeting the South Africa estimates a downturn in annualcomplexities of geriatric care for HIV-infected Aids related deaths from 257 000 in 2005 toadults will further challenge overwhelmed 194 000 in 2010.health systems.’Source: The Lancet, Volume 377, Issue 9772,Pages 1131 - 1133, 2 April 2011 (subscriptionrequired, full article available on request) The challenge, and contradictions, of organised crime and urbanisation in AfricaSwaziland’s unmatched HIV-Aids Below is an extract of the recent opinionepidemic can most plausibly be traced to piece by Erin Torkelson, Researcher,a unique combination of biological, Organised Crime And Money Launderingeconomic, social and cultural factors Programme, of the Institute of Security Studies in Cape Town Office:Swaziland, home to about 1m people, ‘hasthe dubious distinction of having the world’s … Today, some of Africa’s urban centres haveworst national AIDS epidemic’. According to become sites of violence and conflict. Due tothe latest UNAIDS estimates, the adult HIV- the increasing interdependence of nation-prevalence rate was 25.9% in 2009. Why is states, sovereign warfare is far less prevalentthe epidemic so serious in Swaziland and and only viable against disconnected orwhat has been driving HIV prevalence? In power-less states. In contrast, this sameThe future of AIDS: A still-unfolding global interdependence – international flows ofchallenge by The aids2031 Consortium it is people, goods and capital, improvedargued that ‘If the answer were known, communication and transportation networksinterventions would be clear. Studies and – has made urban centres increasinglyspeculation have not yielded a single neat vulnerable to civic violence from non-stateanswer. Instead, Swaziland’s unmatched entities. Cities have become complexepidemic can most plausibly be traced to a geographies where criminal groups areunique combination of biological, economic, increasingly able to challenge nationalsocial and cultural factors.’ governments for authority and control – Migration has been common in organised crime, terrorism, religious andSwaziland for decades and it is generally sectarian riots and protests over perceivedagreed that migration increases the risk of state failures are just a few examples ofHIV infection. The epidemic is also contemporary civic conflict. Of these,perpetuated by multiple concurrent violence resulting from organised criminalpartnering and intergenerational sex in which net-works is arguably the most commongirls and young women have sex with older threat to Africa’s urban centres.men. Although no evidence suggests that The rise of criminal networks andSwazis have more partners, or more frequent their ability to form parallel systems ofsex, than other groups in Southern Africa, authority has been spurred on bypolygamy is culturally accepted in Swaziland globalisation, urbanisation and corruption.and sexual violence against females occurs With regards to globalisation, gangsacross all socioeconomic and cultural back- throughout the developing world havegrounds. accumulated power over time – aided by ‘The picture is bleak: Swaziland is socio-political changes that resulted from theexperiencing a humanitarian crisis end of the Cold War – and now have closecomparable to conflict countries or those connections with global criminal networksfacing a severe natural disaster. AIDS here is and multi-trillion dollar illicit markets. InSouthern Africa Horizon Scan, Issue 20, April 2011
  7. 7. 6Cape Town, for example, the Americans and corruption. A networked world, governancethe Firm (names of gangs) have joined forces failures and economic disparity createwith the Chinese Triads to exchange abalone opportunities for such illegal activities tofor the raw ingredients needed to make flourish. In 2009, the value of illicit tradeamphetamines. With these increasingly around the globe was estimated at US $1.3global business arrangements, the trillion and growing. These risks, whileprofitability of gangsterism has become creating huge costs for legitimate economicalmost limitless and has fuelled rapid activities, also weaken states, threateningexpansion. Against this backdrop, escalating development opportunities, undermining theconfrontation between criminal gangs and rule of law and keeping countries trapped indemocratic governments seems inevitable. cycles of poverty and instability. Moreover, the rapid urbanisation of International cooperation – both on theAfrica’s cities has frequently resulted in ‘grey supply side and on the demand side – isareas’ that fall outside the rule of law and the urgently needed.ability of the state to provide protection andsocial services. Local authorities have Conclusions and recommendations (whichfrequently abandoned these areas, creating a also contain some ideas and potentialpower vacuum that is seized by those solutions) of the Review of Organised Crimeprofiting off of illegal economies. Criminal in Southern Africa study will be presented innetworks use their money and influence to a future edition of the Scan. It can beexert power within their communities downloaded from here:through violence, fear and also beneficence. http://www.issafrica.org/uploads/OrgCrimeRWere gangs to be entirely predatory, the eviewDec2010.pdfsurrounding community would likelycooperate with police to root out criminalgroups. In the absence of effective state Cities report looks at futuresocial services, however, criminal gangs The success of South Africa’s cities, whichsecure loyalty from the community by provide 60% of the country’s economicproviding employment, supporting local output, is crucial to the strengthening of thebusiness, and funding sporting events and rural areas and the country as a whole,university scholarships. Cooperative Governance and Traditional Likewise, criminal űber-enrepreneurs Affairs Deputy Minister Yunus Carrim saiduse their profits to secure loyalty from last week at the launch of the ‘2011 State ofstrategically positioned officials and the the Cities’ report entitled Towards Resilientformal security apparatus as well. One of the Cities. According to Carrim increased supportfindings of a recent organised crime review from provincial and national governmentsuggests that almost all illegal goods are through a more integrated cooperativetransported across borders at official customs governance system, would be key to thepoints. This means that criminal gangs bribe success of the cities in the future.law enforcement agents to ensure their safe The report, which was a project ofpassage. In other cases, criminal gangs do the South African Cities Network (SACN) andnot use bribery directly, instead offering the Department of Cooperative Governanceauthorities the opportunity to benefit from and Traditional Affairs, intended to assist aillegal profit-making opportunities. Research new generation of civic leaders and officialsin Zambia suggests that the police and army who would be in charge of planning,often collude with human smugglers to rob developing and managing cities after thevulnerable international migrants travelling 2011 municipal elections, by providing athrough the country. What results is a series framework for local innovation. The reportof contradictions where legitimate state looked at the challenges and opportunitiesauthorities can be involved in criminal facing the cities from an economic, spatial,business (bribery, highway robbery) and structural, environmental, governmental andillegitimate non-state actors can be seen as financial perspective. It placed emphasis onmore acceptable providers of social services Johannesburg, Tshwane, Ekurhuleni, Capeand protection (bursaries, employment).‟ Town, eThekwini, Nelson Mandela Bay,…(emphasis added) Mangaung, Buffalo City and Msunduzi, andSource: http://www.polity.org.za/article/the- assessed the progress of the metros andchallenge-of-organised-crime-and-urbanisation- secondary cities over the past ten years in2011-02-25 improving service delivery, development and governance. It also identified trends thatThis is a fine local example of what the have emerged and challenges that must beGlobal Risk Network (see here) has termed tackled in the period ahead. “For all thethe “illegal economy” risk nexus: This nexus difficulties the cities have experienced overexamines a cluster of risks including statefragility, illicit trade, organised crime andSouthern Africa Horizon Scan, Issue 20, April 2011
  8. 8. 7the past ten years, the report points to the an ‘inverted U-shaped’ relationship betweenresilience they have shown,” Carrim noted. vulnerability of livelihoods to drought andSource: income. We hypothesize that this relationshiphttp://www.engineeringnews.co.za/article/success- arises because although traditional farmingof-sa-cities-crucial-to-rural-areas-deputy-minister- practices such as the use of traditional seed2011-04-20 varieties and broadcast planting are lessThe report can be downloaded herehttp://www.sacities.net/what/strategy/report/607- productive they are able to deliver harveststowards-resilient-citie across a range of rainfall conditions. In contrast higher yielding modern crop varieties accompanied by the use of fertiliser have a narrower range of rainfall tolerances. ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUES High yields in “good” years, along with other assets, are therefore needed to buffer theMiddle income households may become losses from this strategy in years of drought.more vulnerable to droughts as they Middle income groups are often in transitiontransition away from traditional from traditional to modern agriculturalagriculture towards more modern practices. As a result their use of higher yieldagricultural livelihood strategies - varieties but lack of capital to buffer losses increases their vulnerability to drought.evidence from Malawi and Botswana The consequences of this hypothesisThe Resilience 2011 conference was recently for research and policy are explored. Firstly,held at Arizona State University. It brought more empirical evidence is needed totogether scientists from a broad spectrum of discover the contexts in which the hypothesisdisciplinary backgrounds who are interested is supported and middle income groupsin the major science and policy challenges demonstrate greater vulnerability to drought.that face us all as a result of global change. Secondly, it highlights a need for a moreThe abstract below is from a paper by E nuanced approach to identifying vulnerabilitySimelton et al that was presented as part of to climate change that goes beyond focusinga panel on assessing the vulnerability of food just on the “poor”. And thirdly, with moresecurity to climate change by integrating countries, communities and households beingsocio-economic and environmental factors. encouraged towards more modern agricultural practices in order to improveVulnerability to drought is determined by yields and so food security, more support isenvironmental, socio-economic and needed to help those in the middle to copeinstitutional factors that lead to a lack of and adapt so as to reduce their vulnerabilitycapacity to cope with even small rainfall to drought while in transition.perturbations. Identifying who is vulnerable Source: http://csid.asu.edu/resilience-is necessary to target actions that limit the 2011/program/files/Panels/19_FoodSecurity/quinnimpacts of droughts and to facilitate better _and_simelton_etal.pdfcoping and adaptation strategies. It isexpected that under climate change the This counter-intuitive hypothesis isincidence and severity of droughts are likely potentially an excellent example of theto increase and the Intergovernmental Panel unintended consequences that may emergeon Climate Change (IPCC) considers African when persuading communities to modernisecountries to be particularly vulnerable to the their agricultural practices. In cases ofeffects of climate change. The poor are also drought, it would seem that the poor who doconsidered most likely to be not ‘upgrade’ would be the more resilient.disproportionately affected by climate changeimpacts, particularly those engaged in South Africa’s acid mine drainageagriculture and livestock dependent wastewater is ‘mineable’livelihoods. As a result developmentprogrammes have focused on improving the According to Dr Anthony Turton, director oflivelihoods and incomes of poor rural Touchstone Resources, consideration shouldagricultural households, particularly in Africa. be given to studying the economic feasibility This paper develops the hypothesis of ‘mining’ South Africa’s problematic acidthat households may actually become more mine drainage (AMD) and wastewatervulnerable to droughts as they transition (mentioned in the December 2010 Scan) foraway from traditional agriculture towards metals, minerals, salt and even hydrogen.more modern agricultural livelihood Turton is a protagonist not only of ‘mining’strategies. As such it is those in middle AMD, but also the water in sewage works andincome groups who may be more vulnerable obtaining phosphate, which is crucial for foodto drought than the poor or the better-off. security, as a by product. Turton favoursThis paper will present qualitative evidence consideration being given to the use of ion-from households in Malawi and Botswana of exchange technology to remove the metalsSouthern Africa Horizon Scan, Issue 20, April 2011
  9. 9. 8and minerals. He advocates that the large Drainage (AMD) effluent streams, to a levelvolume of salt that becomes available in that makes it suitable for industrial purposes.processing AMD should be considered for use This is based on the notion of water as a fluxin concentrated solar power plants. and it generates New Water by relieving Turton estimates that for every litre pressure on existing potable water resources,of AMD, up to 4g of sulphate salt are while also enabling economic activity toproduced, plus a range of acid-leached proceed without the prohibitive costs ofmetals and minerals. Much of the phosphate potable water being used for industrialin wastewater treatment works comes from processes.personal care products like shampoos and - Small Water is about bringing affordablesoaps. Simultaneously, the water will be and safe treatment processes to thesufficiently cleaned for safe discharge back individual consumer, where service deliveryinto natural streams, or be cleaned to is failing or is under stress. Part of this ispotable standard, and then injected into an about gaining access to the growing bottledaquifer to over-come psychological barriers. water market, but in a way that avoids the There is also the prospect of AMD normal pitfalls of bottled water.being considered as a feedstock for ahydrogen economy, with the possibility of The creation of New Energy operates at twousing renewable energy to provide the different levels of scale:electricity to crack water into its hydrogen - Big Energy is about exploration for activeand oxygen parts. In correcting the geothermal energy sources in the SADCmispricing of water, a cue can be taken from Region. This uses the earth as a source ofthe successful water project in eMalahleni, energy and involves a number of differentwhere an Anglo American-BHP Billiton joint technologies such as binary, flash steam andventure is turning AMD into drinking water at hot water. This generates New Energy fromR10 to R12/m3 (US $1.50 - $1.80/m3). “If we sources other than coal in a way that is morelook at a realistic price of water, suddenly the environmentally friendly.AMD problem goes from being a problem into - Small Energy is about the introduction ofbecoming a major asset,” Turton comments passive geothermal technologies into theto Mining Weekly Online. He believes that a SADC region, including the possibility ofwell-considered government policy manufacturing locally under licence topronouncement can create the enabling existing foreign geothermal manufacturers.environment for venture capital to be This is based on the notion of energy as aattracted into experimental AMD/wastewater flux and it uses the earth as a sink andventures. generates New Energy by making existingSources: electricity use much more efficient.http://www.miningweekly.com/article/south-africas-acid-mine-drainagewaste-water-is- More details about the above-mentionedmineable-turton-2011-01-20 and technologies can be obtained from thehttp://www.touchstoneresources.co.za/index.htmSee the January / February 2011 edition of Water TouchStone website:Wheel magazine for a comprehensive overview and http://www.touchstoneresources.co.za/ .background of AMDAccording to their website TouchStone The Department of Water Affairs’ (DWA)Resources (Pty) Ltd is a ‘social entrepreneur’ report on AMD can be found herethat is engaged in prospecting for, and http://www.dwaf.gov.za/Documents/ACIDRedeveloping New Energy and New Water port.pdf. In it a team of water and geologyresources, in order to enable the levels of experts recommend that AMD interventionsocio-economic activity that will be needed and management measures be undertakenwithin southern Africa. Their focus is on the “as a matter of urgency” to “avert impendingSouthern African Development Community crises and stabilise the situation”.(SADC) area, because the limitations to Contamination of shallow groundwatereconomic development and social well-being resources required for agricultural use andacross the entire region are constrained by human consumption, geotechnical impacts,similar resources - water and energy. New such as the flooding of undergroundWater encompasses; infrastructure in areas where water rises - Big Water which is about strategic storage close to urban areas, and increased seismicin a region with high evaporative losses that activity, were some of the risks identified inlimit the utility of dams, so their focus is on the report.alternative storage in groundwater aquifersystems, or in old mine voids. - Medium Water is about treating effluent,either from sewage works or from Acid MineSouthern Africa Horizon Scan, Issue 20, April 2011
  10. 10. 9 TECHNOLOGY ISSUES Africas largest and latest fibre-optic submarine cable has brought a numberNew technology that can diagnose of firsts to South Africa and thepatients with tuberculosis (TB) in two continent.hours A new 14 000km, ultra-high capacity (5The GeneXpert machine tests for TB much terabits per second) fibre-optic submarinefaster and more accurately than microscopic cable made landfall on the west coast oftests that are used to diagnose the disease, Western Cape on 26 April after landing stopswhich could take between three to five in 13 countries, 11 of which are on Africasmonths to produce results. There are only west coast. The cable is the first to be fundedfive GeneXpert machines outside the United by all South Africas major telecomsStates and a majority of them can be found operators, including Telkom, Broadbandin Europe. The fifth one, now in South Africa, Infraco, Vodacom, MTN and Neotel. Theis the only one dedicated to TB testing in the “open access model” employed for WACSworld. The GeneXpert Infinity 48, (West African Cable System) is a system thatmanufactured by US company Cepheid, is an allows all the funders or telecoms operatorsautomated molecular analysis machine that that own bandwidth capacity on the cable toproduces accurate results quickly, with have equal access, despite them not havingminimal risk of contamination. The landing sites of their own. This is differentGeneXpert will be used to test sputum for from the previous dispensation thattuberculosis and was donated to the hospital prejudiced operators that did not haveby the US Agency for International landing sites of their own and left them atDevelopment (USAid), a government agency the mercy of incumbent operators, who oftenproviding economic and humanitarian charged exorbitant service fees and oftenassistance. The GeneXpert can detect TB and artificially restricted bandwidth, thusmulti-drug resistant TB (MDR-TB) in two preventing the full exploitation ofhours. The GeneXpert machine can conduct international broadband capacity.up to 48 tests simultaneously and a total of The concept of “open access” will200 in eight hours. The South African substantially improve access to the new cableDepartment of Health has also purchased system for telecoms providers - even thosenine GeneXpert 16 machines, which will be who have not invested in WACS - thusput into operation in areas with a high TB spurring competition. The new spirit ofincidence rate, as well as 20 portable openness and competition is one that hasGeneXpert 4 machines which will be used for been encouraged by South Africa’s recentlytesting in communities. updated Electronic Communications Act,Source: http://mg.co.za/article/2011-03-24- which places a heavy emphasis on sharingturning-the-tide-on-tb expensive infrastructure. This can be seen in moves to even share cellphone base stationsDrug-resistant tuberculosis (DRTB) is an to bring down the unit cost of providingemerging infectious disease threat to sub- telecommunications services. The spirit of co-Saharan Africa (SSA), particularly in the operation can also be seen in the clubbingregions hit hardest by the HIV epidemic. together of telecoms providers to provide theNumerous challenges face clinicians and new national terrestrial fibre-optic network.public health officials tasked with combating Source:DRTB in SSA. These include difficulties http://www.timeslive.co.za/business/article103493providing effective diagnosis, treatment, and 3.ece/Cable-puts-SA-on-super-fast-trackprevention of this illness. Furthermore,combating DRTB requires addressing various A small, but perhaps significant, example oflegal and ethical complexities. A sustained the difference that ‘enabling’ legislation /commitment to investigating as well as regulation can make. For and overview of theimplementing new diagnostic, therapeutic, Act see hereand preventative interventions is essential to http://www.law24.com/understand-your-defeating this threat. The use of the legal-issue/legal-GeneXpert machine is a potential solution, articles/index.html?domid=/slucb/ulucb/8luctherefore its effectiveness in South Africa b/a3wcb/b3wcb/oltfb&id=210could be benchmarked or studied as a pilotproject for roll-out in other SSA countries. The WACS cable will link SA directly to Europe and London with an ultra-high capacity fibre cable pair that will allow simultaneous transmission and receiving of data at unprecedented speeds. Although the cable will begin transmitting at 300 gigabits/second (Gbps) this will ultimately beSouthern Africa Horizon Scan, Issue 20, April 2011
  11. 11. 10upgraded to the design capacity of 5.12 amount of ‘off the wall’ ideas but someterabits per second (Tbps). The ultimate interesting common themes, such asdoubling of Africas broadband capacity to education and music - clearly hot topics atmore than 10Tbps will have very profound the moment. For me, the best pitch of theeffects on the continents internet capability. evening was the one that really spoke to theData-rich applications such as HD video- need which everyone immediately identifiedconferencing are expected to grow with – the neighbourhood watch supportexponentially, video-streaming applications software. Yes, it’s a hot topic, but it was wellfor educational, health and entertainment presented, in that the presenter spoke to aindustries will also be well served by such need we could clearly understand, indicatedcapacity. how they would solve it, and literally had us picturing how we would use it. There was anIn a related development Brics countries audible acknowledgement from the audienceexpressed support for the South Atlantic with the usual – ‘why didn’t I think of that?’Express (Saex) Cable. This 12.8 terabit cable expression.is more than double the size of the above- There were lots to learn aboutmentioned WACS cable. Saex will link South techniques from the 30 or so pitches and IAfrica with Brazil through Angola. What would encourage anyone with an idea or amakes this cable different, apart from its business to practice their pitch often, gettingsize, is that it offers the shortest route to the up to pitch whenever you are given theUnited States (US), which will increase the opportunity. I know of guys who inventspeed of data transmission. Undersea cables fictitious concepts when they are given aall currently link Southern Africa with the US chance to pitch, just to practice their skills.through Europe. So, well done to Johanna Kollar fromSource: Umbono and Roger Norton from Silicon Capehttp://www.fin24.com/Companies/ICT/New- for getting things going at the front end ofundersea-data-cable-planned-for-SA-20110415 the business creation chain. Let’s see how we can assist in making these concepts and fledgling business into the stuff that legendsUmbono update: A blog post by Brett are made of.Commaille dated 26 April 2011 Source:I had the privilege of being involved in http://www.realmdigital.co.za/post/umbono-steps- out/Google’s Umbono event as a mentor withWesley Lynch and Invenfin’s AlexandraFraser. It was organised with Silicon Cape atthe V&A [Victoria & Alfred Waterfront in CapeTown] last week. It was a simple eventaimed at getting the techies and the ideapeople together in the hope of pulling theideas out of their heads and into the realworld with the help of new foundpartnerships. Surprisingly, it’s given me knew hopefor the start-up industry in Cape Town. It’seasy to have a networking evening whereeverybody drinks and chats to old mates. Isaw a difference last night. People got themessage – get out of your comfort zone andmingle; find a dev guy, find an entrepreneur/idea guy, ask questions and make a plan toget going. I witnessed loads of introductionsand met loads of people, many of whom wehope to assist going forward. People seem tobe getting the message that you don’t needto wait for funding. You can get a long waydown the road with the right partners andhopefully get a basic market tested productwhich goes a way to justifying interest froman investor. Hopefully next time we will seemore developers breaking free from thekeyboards to join us. I also saw a marked improvement inthe elevator pitches. There were the usualSouthern Africa Horizon Scan, Issue 20, April 2011

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