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Epic research daily agri report 25 march 2015
1. DAILYAGRI COMMODITY REPORT
25 Mar 2015
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2. Market Views
2
MONTH OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE % CHG VOL MONTH OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE % CHG VOL
DHANIYA
APR 7550 7945 7505 7945 +3.99 15900
INTRADAY
LEVELS
SUPPORT SUPP.1
7651
SUPP. 2
7358
PIVOT
7798
Dhaniya short term
trend is up, further
more upside is expected
in coming days.RESISTAN
CE
RES. 1
8091
RES. 2
8238
CASTORSEED
APR. 3692 3737 3675 3704 +0.46% 24690
INTRADAY
LEVELS
SUPPORT SUPP. 1
3673
SUPP. 2
3643
PIVOT
3705
Castorseed short term
trend is down, Prices
expected to go down in
coming days.RESISTAN
CE
RES. 1
3735
RES. 2
3767
TURMERIC
APR 8152 8152 7956 8000 -1.57% 9660
INTRADAY
LEVELS
SUPPORT SUPP. 1
7920
SUPP. 2
7840
PIVOT
8036
Turmeric short term
trend is down and may
continue in coming
days.RESISTAN
CE
RES. 1
8116
RES. 2
8232
GUARGUM
APR. 8230 8670 8230 8600 +3.12 8030
INTRADAY
LEVELS
SUPPORT SUPP. 1
8330
SUPP. 2
8060
PIVOT
8500
Guargum Short term
trend is down,
Expecting price may go
down in coming days.RESISTAN
CE
RES. 1
8770
RES. 2
8940
3. Most Active Contract
3
NCDEX INDICESTOP LOSERS
SYMBOL EXPIRY DATE
CURRENT
PRICE
CHANGE
CHANGE
%
TURMERIC 20-04-2015 7968.00 -178.00 -2.19%
BARLEY 20-04-2015 1119.00 -20.00 -1.76%
CHANA 20-04-2015 3614.00 -23.00 -0.63%
REFINED SOYA OIL 20-04-2015 585.90 -2.90 -0.49%
SOYA BEAN 20-04-2015 3364.00 -5.00 -0.15%
COTTON SEED OIL CAKE
AKOLA
20-04-2015 1624.00 -1.00 -0.06%
TOP GAINERS
SYMBOL EXPIRY DATE
CURRENT
PRICE
CHANGE
CHANGE
%
CORIANDER 20-04-2015 7945.00 325.00 4.27%
JEERA 20-04-2015 14545.00 225.00 1.57%
CASTOR SEED NEW 20-04-2015 3712.00 24.00 0.65%
Index Value Pre. Close % Change
CASTORSEED 3704 3687 +0.46
CHANA 3613 3627 -0.39
CORIANDER 7945 7640 +3.99
GUAR SEED 10
MT
3769 3687 +2.22
JEERA 14485 14325 +1.12
MUSTARD SEED 3377 3386 -0.27
SOYABEAN 3369 3366 +0.09
TURMERIC 8000 8128 -1.57
4. Commodities In News
4
chana: Amid pick up in domestic demand and restricted supplies from
producing belts, chana prices edged up by 0.19% to Rs 3,634 per quintal in
futures trade today as speculators created fresh positions. At the National
Commodity and Derivatives Exchange, chana for delivery in April rose by Rs
7, or 0.19% to Rs 3,634 per quintal with an open interest of 1,43,100 lots.
Coriander futures traded up on NCDEX as speculators enlarged positions,
supported by rising demand in spot markets against tight stocks position.
Further, fragile supplies in physical mandies also added some gains in
coriander prices. The contract for April delivery was trading at Rs 7945.00,
up by 4.27% or Rs 325.00 from its previous closing of Rs 7620.00. The open
interest of the contract stood at 22200.00 lots. The contract for May delivery
was trading at Rs 8062.00, up by 4.16% or Rs 322.00 from its previous
closing of Rs 7740.00. The open interest of the contract stood at 27780.00
lots on NCDEX.
Turmeric futures are expected to trade on a positive note on the back of
buying from the lower levels during today’s trading session. Fresh export
demand might support the futures prices to move higher. As per market
sources, traders are receiving good orders from upcountry buyers. According
to derivative analysis, prices, volumes rose on Monday while open interests
have declined. It is an indication that the market is susceptible to large price
swings as short time-frame traders could attempt to trade from both sides of
the market, a signal of market turns in the near-term or continued volatility.
Castorseed prices were up by Rs 31 to Rs 3,778 per quintal in future trading
today largely on the back of strong sentiments at spot markets on rising
demand. Further, pick up in export demand too supported the upside in
prices.
ECONOMIC NEWS
Even as Finance Minister Arun Jaitley tries to make the National
Pension System (NPS) an attractive investment option, there is
uncertainty whether investors will take to the scheme. He Budget
provided a tax benefit on NPS investments but did nothing to
address a long-standing problem. Under the current rules, the NPS
corpus is taxable at the time of withdrawal.
The Centre today allocated the development of 17 mega food
parks across the country to state governments and private firms,
including Adani Ports & SEZ, envisaging an investment of over Rs
6,000 crore. A mega food park provides various facilities to food
processors, farmers, retailers and exporters, helping achieve faster
growth of food processing industries. The project cost to set up these
17 mega food parks would be Rs 2,030 crore, of which the central
grant would be Rs 850 crore.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi will launch a brand new website
for public grievances on Wednesday. Corruption in central
government seems to be the top concern as the PMO replaces the
existing public web-interface for the prime minister with
'PRAGATI', the new portal. The portal is getting launched along
with the PM's monthly programme of interaction with union
secretaries and chief secretaries through video-conferencing.
In a landmark judgement upholding freedom of expression, the
Supreme Court today struck down a provision in the cyber law
which provides power to arrest a person for posting allegedly
"offensive" content on websites.
5. 5
Fundamental Watch :Castorseed
CASTORSEED ARRIVALS AT KEY SPOT
MARKET
National Market Update
Despite recovery in futures cash market remained subdued on Tuesday amid
prevailing weak sentiments and trades engagements in March closing. Fresh buying
interest may be seen from the beginning of April. Arrivals in the market too have
decreased at the fag end of the week. Inner tone remains weak despite news of crop
loss in Rajasthan and Gujarat due to recent rains and strong wind. Market may trade
around Rs 3500/3550 in the remaining days of this month. Market participants feel
that farmers would prefer to retain more stock this year as prices are ruling lower
than their normal expectation. They would avoid selling it below Rs 700 per 20 kg.
However, financially weak farmers have no option except to sell it at prevailing
market price. Arrival quantity in percentage may be lower this year as farmers
holding would be 10/15 percent higher. In second Adv estimate released on
18.02.2015,govt has projected 19.11 lakh tonne castor seed production against the
set target of 16.65 lakh tonne for 2015.Govt had estimated 17.27 lakh tonne
production last year against the target of 16.46 lakh tonne. However, trades see it as
over estimated. Release of third Adv estimate is awaited and govt may revise it
estimate slightly down considering the recent loss due to rains and strong wind in the
growing regions. Agriwatch estimates 14.0 lakh tonne seed production this year,
almost 2.3 lakh tonne higher than last year. Production estimates may be revised by
mid April as crop will continue to hit the market till May and by then final yield
would be clearer. However, it is obvious that incoming seed quantity would be
higher than last year.
International Market Report
Not much trading activities is expected in global market this week too and
major buyers would remain busy with March closing. Fresh trading activities
are expected by the second week of April. Continuous banking holidays too
would keep trading activities at negligible level. The weak economic scenario in
China and Europe has reflected in castor oil export volume in 2014. China imported
24 percent lower oil in 2014 in comparison to 2013.This year Chineese buying may
decrease further and import volume may touch 1.5 lakh tonne under normal condition.
Even Europe may end up with1.10 lakh tonne oil import in 2015. Some recovery is
expected from US, however it would be lower than the import of 2013.
CENTER 24-Mar-15 23-Mar-15 Change
SUMERPUR 960 960 UNCH
JODHPUR NR NR -
RAJKOT 400 850 -450
GONDAL 574 761 -187
PATAN 1000 6000 +4000
DEESA 968 1256 -288
MAHESANA 960 1440 -480
6. Technical Outlook
6
BUY CORIANDER APRIL ABOVE 8050 TARGET 8075 8115 SL
BELOW 8025
BUY GUARGUM APRIL ABOVE 8680 TARGET 8730 8790 SL
BELOW 8620
BUY TURMERIC APRIL ABOVE 8090 TARGET 8130 8190 SL
BELOW 8030
BUY CASTORSEED APRIL ABOVE 3725 TARGET 3750 3780 SL
BELOW 3700
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