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Epic research daily agri report 06 oct 2015
1. DAILY AGRI COMMODITY REPORT
06 October 2015
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2. Market Views
2
MONTH OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE % CHG VOL MONTH OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE % CHG VOL
TURMERIC
OCT 7550 7794 7490 7650 +2.03 13480
INTRADAY
LEVELS
SUPPORT SUPP. 1
7495
SUPP. 2
7341
PIVOT
7645
Turmeric short term
trend is bullish and
May continue in
coming days.RESISTAN
CE
RES. 1
7799
RES. 2
7949
CORIANDER
OCT 11208 11610 11208 11526 +2.75 13400
INTRADAY
LEVELS
SUPPORT SUPP.1
11286
SUPP. 2
11046
PIVOT
11448
Coriander short term
trend is bullish and May
continue in coming
days.RESISTAN
CE
RES. 1
11688
RES. 2
11850
GUARGUM
OCT 8200 8350 8060 8210 -0.24 10119
INTRADAY
LEVELS
SUPPORT SUPP. 1
8063
SUPP. 2
7917
PIVOT
8207
Guargum short term
trend is bullish and
May continue in
coming days.RESISTAN
CE
RES. 1
8353
RES. 2
8497
CASTORSEED
OCT 4112 4188 4112 4151 +0.68 49290
INTRADAY
LEVELS
SUPPORT SUPP. 1
4113
SUPP. 2
4074
PIVOT
4150
Castorseed short term
trend is bullish and
May continue in
coming day.RESISTAN
CE
RES. 1
4189
RES. 2
4226
3. Most Active Contract
3
NCDEX INDICES
Index Value
Pre.
Close
%
Change
CASTORSEED 4151 4123 +0.68
CHANA 5188 4977 +4.24
CORIANDER 11526 11218 +2.75
GUARGUM 8210 8230 -0.24
JEERA 15745 15665 +0.51
MUSTARD
SEED
4730 4549 +3.98
SOYABEAN 3681 3540 +3.98
TURMERIC 7650 7498 +2.03
TOP LOSERS
SYMBOL EXPIRY DATE
CURRENT
PRICE
CHANGE
CHANGE
%
TOP GAINERS
SYMBOL EXPIRY DATE
CURRENT
PRICE
CHANGE CHANGE %
CHANA 20-10-2015 5188.00 381.00 7.93%
RAPESEED-MUSTARD
SEED
20-10-2015 4730.00 310.00 7.01%
SOYABEAN 20-10-2015 3681.00 228.00 6.60%
REFINED SOY OIL 20-10-2015 625.20 27.70 4.64%
COTTON SEED OIL CAKE
AKOLA
18-12-2015 1628.00 68.00 4.36%
CORIANDER 20-10-2015 11526.00 366.00 3.28%
TURMERIC 20-10-2015 7650.00 138.00 1.84%
CASTOR SEED NEW 20-10-2015 4151.00 37.00 0.90%
JEERA 20-10-2015 15745.00 85.00 0.54%
4. Commodities In News
4
ECONOMIC NEWS
To fasten payment of crop insurance claims to farmers, the Centre
launched a pilot programme Kisan, which will use satellite and drone-
based imaging and other geospatial technology to get timely and accurate
data on crop yields.Payment of crop insurance claims is done on the basis
of crop cutting experiments and the government was concerned over the
delays in settlements.Also to access large-scale damage to standing crops,
it launched an Android-based app for collection of data of hailstorm.The
app will be used by state agriculture officials and the data will help the
Union Agriculture Ministry in having very fast assessment of damage to
crops because of hailstorm."The crop insurance claim is calculated on the
basis of crop cutting experiments. However, there has always been a
problem in getting timely and accurate data, due to which payment of
claims to farmers were getting delayed. A new programme Kisan is being
launched on a pilot basis to address this issue," Minister of State for
Agriculture Sanjeev Kumar Balyan told reporters.Initially, the pilot study
will be carried out in rice and cotton fields in four districts during the
ongoing Kharif season in Karnataka (Shimoga district), Maharastra
(Yavatmal), Haryana (Kurkshetra) and Madhya Pradesh (Seoni), he said.It
will also be carried out during the 2015-16 rabi season in eight districts in
same states to assess the crop yields of rice, wheat and shorghum, the
minister said adding that the the programme will be scaled up across the
country after assessing the results.The programme envisages use of high
resolution remote sensing data both from satellite and drone-based
imaging, sophisticated modelling activity and other geospatial technology
for improving the accuracy of crop yield estimation through more efficient
crop cutting experiments.Block level yield estimation and development of a
new index based insurance approach, using remote sensing data are also
envisaged under the project.The programme will be jointly conducted by
Mahalanobis National Crop Forecast Centre, Indian Space Research
Organisation, India Meteorological Department, State Agriculture
Departments and Remote Sensing Centres, Climate Change, Agriculture
and Food Security (CCAFS).
Jeera settled up due to lower level buying as the supplies are
dwindling. However, some gains were limited by lack of exports and
expectation of better sowing in the coming weeks. Prices found some
good support at these lower levels even as lack of strong export
demand kept trend sideways. With sowing to start over next few weeks,
all eyes will be on the sowing progress in coming weeks.Moreover, the
prices of jeera at spot market also increased on local buying. The jeera
export from India may be lower as Jeera from Syria and Turkey may
come to world market in October. As per Department of commerce
data, exports from India in first four months of FY 2015-16 is 31,419
MT. As per latest spice board press release, cumin export is stood at
155,500 tonnes for 2014-15 period and earned foreign exchange worth
Rs 1,838.20 crore while in 2013- 14, the figures stood at 121,500
tonnes valued at Rs 1,600 crore. As per fourth advance estimate of
Gujarat State, production is expected at 1.58 lt in 2014-15, which is
54.3 % lower, compared to last years’ production of 3.46 lakh tonnes.
Turmeric settled up due to rising demand and arrival of good quality
turmeric at the spot market. However, some gains were limited by the
proposed nationwide truck strike and the traders keep away from
buying the turmeric as they feel they may not be able to send the few
pending orders. Due to rising demand and arrival of good quality
turmeric at the spot market.However, some gains were limited by the
proposed nationwide truck strike and the traders keep away from
buying the turmeric as they feel they may not be able to send the few
pending orders. Turmeric sowing area reported high in Maharashtra
and Tamil Nadu state during the current sowing period. As per dept of
commerce data, turmeric exports during April-Jul, 2015 pegged at
32,158 tonnes while the export for the 2014-15 is 90,738 tonnes
compared to 78,360 tonnes in FY14.
5. 5
Fundamental Watch : Sugar
SUGAR PRICES AT KEY SPOT MARKETNational Market Update
Favorable weather condition, improved cane variety and surge in area under
better cane variety all together attributed ISMA to revisit its sugar production
estimate in Uttar Pradesh from 73.51 lakh tons to 75 lakh tons in 2015-16.
ISMA has revised its sugar production estimate from 280 lakh tons to 270
lakh tons in marketing year 2015-16 (1st Oct, 2015 – 30th Sep, 2016).
For Maharashtra, ISMA is predicting that the state could produce 90 lakh
tons of sugar in 2015-16 which was 14.33% less than the actual sugar
produced during marketing year 2014-15.
ISMA also projected Karnataka and Tamil Nadu to produce 46 lakh and 13.5
lakh tons of sugar respectively in MY 2015-16 .
Indian sugar export fell down by 59% this week (ending 20th Sep, 2015) as
the country exported 23.1 thousand tons of sugar during the period compared
to 56.1 thousand tons of export the previous week.
With a view to reduce the expected sugar accumulation within the country,
the Indian govt. had made it compulsory to export minimum four million tons
of sugar in MY 2015-16 (1st Oct, 2015 – 30th Sep, 2016).
Heavy rain disrupted cane processing in Brazil’s main centre south region
resulting into a mere production of 1.68 MT of sugar in the first half of
September, 2015.
International Sugar Organization (ISO) projected a global sugar deficit of
6.2 MT in 2016-17 compared to 2.5 MT deficit in 2015-16.
CENTER 3-Oct-15 1-Oct-15 Change
DELHI 2725 2660 +65
MUMBAI 2790 2786 +4
VIJAYWADA 2880 2880 UNCH
NAGPUR 2850 2700 +150
CHENNAI 2600 2600 UNCH
AMBIKAPUR 2835 2835 UNCH
DHAMPUR 2625 2625 UNCH
6. Technical Outlook
6
BUY CORIANDER OCT ABOVE 11614 TARGET 11641 11721 SL
BELOW 11587
BUY GUARGUM OCT ABOVE 8210 TARGET 8260 8330 SL
BELOW 8150
BUY GUARGUM OCT ABOVE 8210 TARGET 8260 8330 SL
BELOW 8150
BUY CASTORSEED OCT ABOVE 4150 TARGET 4175 4205 SL
BELOW 4125
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