Exercise involving New Zealand transport experts (from the transport sector, councils, government and researchers). Over four surveys the Energy Cultures project asked about things like their perspectives on trends and shocks that might affect NZ’s transport system, and what NZ’s future transport system might look like. Some of the findings are reported in this presentation

1. THE FUTURE OF NEW ZEALAND'S
TRANSPORT SYSTEM:
FINDINGS FROM NZ DELPHI SURVEY
Debbie Hopkins, Alaric McCarthy, Janet Stephenson
Energy Cultures II Project
Centre for Sustainability (CSAFE)
Debbie.hopkins@otago.ac.nz

2. • Why is it important to think about New
Zealand’s future transport system?
• The Delphi Technique
• The Delphi Panel
• Results
– Trends
– Innovations
– Step changes
– Time frames
– Characteristics of a sustainable transport
system
• Concluding remarks
STRUCTURE

3. Reliance on imported fuel:
• Imported crude oil accounts for 99.85% of New Zealand’s transport fuel
requirements (MBIE, 2012)
Used primarily by light passenger vehicles:
• 94% of transport petrol is used for light passenger vehicles, 6% commercial and
other uses.
High car ownership rate:
• Second highest private car ownership rate in the OECD; 604 cars per thousand
people in 2013
Relatively old vehicle fleet:
• Relatively old vehicle fleet – average of 13.2 years in 2012, compared to 11.4 years
in the USA and 10.0 years for Australia
Transport emissions:
• New Zealand’s transport sector emissions per capita are approximately 3 t CO2-e
and put New Zealand in the middle of the Annex 1 countries; higher than the EU
(2t CO2-e/person) and below Australia (nearly 4t CO2-e/person)
CONTEXT
Source: MBIE, 2014

4. THE DELPHI TECHNIQUE…
… a structured process enabling the collection and
synthesis of knowledge from a group of experts
… generates levels of agreement through iterative
investigations of opinions
Benefits:
 Reduces power dynamics
 Overcomes geographical constraints of bringing
together geographically scattered experts
 Valuable for issues with high uncertainty or
disagreement

5. Round One
(n=75)
•Qualitative survey
•Inviting Panel to list influential trends, innovations & step changes (free text)
Round Two
(n=67)
•Quantifying the likelihood of the trends, innovations & step changes occurring, and their potential to
transform the transport system
•Time frames in which the stated changes would be likely to occur
Round Three
(n=55)
•Quantifying levels of agreement/ disagreement arising from Rounds 1 & 2.
•Identifying areas of high priority for interventions
•Levels of agreement with International Delphi panel on features of a sustainable transport system for
NZ
Round Four
(n=44)
•Inviting Panel to describe the types of interventions required to support priorities (free text)
NZ DELPHI 2014
86 PANELLISTS ACROSS 4 ROUNDS

6. DELPHI PARTICIPANT CHARACTERISTICS
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Consultant
Other
Academia
Independent researcher
Industry
Non-governmental organisation
Government (central + local)
Number of expert participants
Fields of expertise:
Areas of highest reported expertise:
‘active transport’, ‘policy and
planning’, ‘personal transport’ and
‘transport-related infrastructure’.
Locally specified areas of
expertise:
Auckland = 19
Wellington = 14
Dunedin = 6
Bay of Plenty/ Waikato = 3

7. DEFINITIONS
TRENDS: ‘things that are already changing’
INNOVATIONS: ‘novel technological, behavioural and
policy developments’
STEP CHANGES: ‘possible rapid or sudden shifts, shocks,
or changes in context’
BUSINESS-AS-USUAL (BAU): ‘the continuation of
transport systems and practices that rely on finite
resources and support automobile dependence’.

8. TRENDS

9. TRENDS (I)
1 2 3 4 5
Reducing cost of air transport relative to road…
Urban form that supports active transport and…
Rising concern about health implications of…
Uptake of shared personal transport (e.g. car…
Increasing political concern about climate change
Uptake of electric vehicles (EVs)
Increasing investment in active transport…
Consolidation of ports and freight hubs
Uptake of active transport (walking, cycling)
Uptake of public transport
Increasing investment in public transport…
Increasing public concern about climate change
Decreasing drivers licensing amongst youth
Increasing truck size and carrying capacity
Road congestion
Decreasing car ownership amongst youth
Use of travel substitution technologies (Internet,…
Increasing percent of population in urban areas
Aging population
Rising fuel prices
Lkelihood of TREND becoming widespread in 10 years
(1= low, 5 = high)
Top 5 trends most likely to
become widespread in the
next 10 years:
1. Rising fuel prices
2. Aging population
3. Increasing urbanisation
4. Use of travel substitution
5. Decreasing car
ownership for youth

10. TRENDS (II)
1 2 3 4 5
Reducing cost of air transport relative to road transport
Increasing truck size and carrying capacity
Rising concern about health implications of transport…
Consolidation of ports and freight hubs
Road congestion
Decreasing drivers licensing amongst youth
Aging population
Uptake of electric vehicles (EVs)
Uptake of shared personal transport (e.g. car sharing,…
Use of travel substitution technologies (Internet,…
Decreasing car ownership amongst youth
Uptake of active transport (walking, cycling)
Increasing percent of population in urban areas
Increasing public concern about climate change
Uptake of public transport
Increasing investment in active transport infrastructure
Increasing political concern about climate change
Increasing investment in public transport infrastructure
Urban form that supports active transport and public…
Rising fuel prices
Potential for TREND to transform transport
system away from BAU within 10 years
(1 = low, 5 = high)
Top 5 trends most likely to
transform the transport
system away from BAU in the
long term:
1. Rising fuel prices
2. Urban form supporting AT
3. Increasing investment in PT
infrastructure
4. Increasing political concern
about climate change
5. Increasing investment in
active transport
infrastructure

11. TRENDS (III)
1
2
3
4
5
1 2 3 4 5
LikelihoodofTRENDbecomingwidespreadin10years
Potential for TREND to transform transport system away from BAU in the long term
AF
D
C
B
I
H
E
G
J
K
L
P
T
S
R
N
M
O
Q
A - Rising fuel prices
B - Increasing percent of population in urban areas
C - Increasing public concern about climate change
D - Increasing investment in PT infrastructure
E - Use of travel substitution technologies
F - Aging population
G - Decreasing car ownership among youth
H - Uptake of PT
I - Increasing investment in AT infrastructure
J - Uptake of AT
K - Decreasing drivers licensing among youth
M - Increasing political concern about climate change
N - Urban form that supports AT and PT
O - Uptake of shared personal transport
P - Road congestion
Q - Consolidation of ports and freight hubs
R - Increasing truck size and carrying capacity
S - Rising concern about health implications of
transport
T - Reducing cost of air transport relative to road
LOW likelihood
HIGH potential
LOW likelihood
LOW potential
HIGH likelihood
HIGH potential
HIGH likelihood
LOW potential

12. TRENDS (IV)
TOP PRIORITIES FOR INTERVENTION
1
2
3
4
5
1 2 3 4 5
LikelihoodofTRENDbecomingwidespreadin10years
Potential for TREND to transform transport system away from BAU in the long term
AF
D
C
B
I
H
E
G
J
K
L
P
T
S
R
N
M
O
Q
A - Rising fuel prices
B - Increasing percent of population in urban areas
C - Increasing public concern about climate change
D - Increasing investment in PT infrastructure
E - Use of travel substitution technologies
F - Aging population
G - Decreasing car ownership among youth
H - Uptake of PT
I - Increasing investment in AT infrastructure
J - Uptake of AT
K - Decreasing drivers licensing among youth
M - Increasing political concern about climate change
N - Urban form that supports AT and PT
O - Uptake of shared personal transport
P - Road congestion
Q - Consolidation of ports and freight hubs
R - Increasing truck size and carrying capacity
S - Rising concern about health implications of
transport
T - Reducing cost of air transport relative to road
LOW likelihood
HIGH potential
LOW likelihood
LOW potential
HIGH likelihood
HIGH potential
HIGH likelihood
LOW potential

13. INNOVATIONS

14. INNOVATIONS (I)
1 2 3 4 5
Large scale biofuel production
Autonomously guided vehicles
Wireless induction charging for electric
vehicles
Demand management through road pricing
Electric vehicle charging infrastructure
Measures that reduce parking availability in
city centres
Multi-modal, integrated public transport
Intelligent transport systems (Vehicle to
infrastructure communication, collision…
Improvements in battery technologies for
electric vehicles
Bicycle infrastructure (e.g. protected bike
lanes, bike sharing schemes, electric…
Real-time driver feedback software
(analysing driver behaviour and fuel…
Small electrified vehicles (e.g. bikes,
scooters, small cars)
High quality video conferencing
Ultra fast broadband
Likelihood of INNOVATION becoming
widespread in 10 years
(1 = Low, 5 = High)
Top 5 innovations most
likely to become
widespread in the next 10
years:
1. Ultra fast broadband
internet
2. High quality video
conferencing
3. Small electrified vehicles
4. Real-time driver
feedback software
5. Bicycle infrastructure

15. INNOVATIONS (II)
1 2 3 4 5
Real-time driver feedback software
(analysing driver behaviour and fuel…
Large scale biofuel production
High quality video conferencing
Wireless induction charging for electric
vehicles
Ultra fast broadband
Autonomously guided vehicles
Electric vehicle charging infrastructure
Intelligent transport systems (Vehicle to
infrastructure communication,…
Small electrified vehicles (e.g. bikes,
scooters, small cars)
Improvements in battery technologies
for electric vehicles
Measures that reduce parking
availability in city centres
Bicycle infrastructure (e.g. protected
bike lanes, bike sharing schemes,…
Multi-modal, integrated public
transport
Demand management through road
pricing
Potential for INNOVATION to transform transport system
away from BAU in the long term
(1 = Low, 5 = High)
Top 5 innovations most
likely to transform the
transport system away
from BAU in the long term:
1. Demand management
through road pricing
2. Multi-modal, integrated
public transport
3. Bicycle infrastructure
4. Measures to reduce inner
city parking
5. Improvements in battery
technologies for EVs

16. INNOVATIONS (III)
1
2
3
4
5
1 2 3 4 5
LikelihoodofINNOVATIONbecomingwidespreadin10years
Potential for INNOVATION to transform transport system away from BAU in the long term
A
B
E
D
C
I
H
G
FJ
K
LM
N
A - Bicycle infrastructure
B - Multi-modal, integrated public transport
C - Improvements in battery technologies for electric
vehicles
D - Small electrified vehicles
E - Reduce parking availability in city centres
F - Intelligent transport systems
G - Demand management through road pricingL - Autonomously guided vehicles
M - Wireless induction charging for electric vehicles
N - Large scale biofuel production
H - Ultra fast broadband
I - High quality video conferencing
J - Electric vehicle charging infrastructure
K - Real-time driver feedback software
HIGH likelihood
HIGH potential
LOW likelihood
HIGH potential
HIGH likelihood
LOW potential
LOW likelihood
LOW potential

17. INNOVATIONS (IV)
TOP PRIORITIES FOR INTERVENTION
A
B
E
D
C
I
H
G
FJ
K
LM
N
A - Bicycle infrastructure
B - Multi-modal, integrated public transport
C - Improvements in battery technologies for electric
vehicles
D - Small electrified vehicles
E - Reduce parking availability in city centres
F - Intelligent transport systems
G - Demand management through road pricingL - Autonomously guided vehicles
M - Wireless induction charging for electric vehicles
N - Large scale biofuel production
H - Ultra fast broadband
I - High quality video conferencing
J - Electric vehicle charging infrastructure
K - Real-time driver feedback software
HIGH likelihood
HIGH potential
LOW likelihood
HIGH potential
HIGH likelihood
LOW potential
LOW likelihood
LOW potential

18. STEP CHANGES

19. STEP CHANGES (I)
1 2 3 4 5
Radical societal shift to healthier
lifestyles in NZ*
Major investment in NZ rail system*
Sustainability (e.g. GHG emissions
reductions) become a major driver…
Decreasing the proportion of
transport spend on roads in NZ*
Significant global economic decline
Catastrophic natural disaster or
disease outbreak
Substantial increase in cost of air
travel (NZ domestic)*
Global price on carbon
Mass production of low cost electric
vehicles
Significant breakthrough in cheap
battery/ storage technologies
Constraints in oil supply
Political instability in oil rich countries
Spikes in the price of liquid fossil fuels
Likelihood of STEP CHANGE becoming widespread in 10 years
(1 = Low, 5 = High)
Top 5 step changes most
likely to become
widespread in the next 10
years:
1. Spikes in the price of
liquid fossil fuels
2. Political instability in oil
rich countries
3. Constraints in oil supply
4. Significant breakthrough
in cheap battery/ storage
technologies
5. Mass production of low
cost EVs

20. STEP CHANGES (II)
1 2 3 4 5
Catastrophic natural disaster or disease
outbreak
Substantial increase in cost of air travel
(NZ domestic)*
Radical societal shift to healthier
lifestyles in NZ*
Mass production of low cost electric
vehicles
Major investment in NZ rail system*
Significant global economic decline
Spikes in the price of liquid fossil fuels
Decreasing the proportion of transport
spend on roads in NZ*
Global price on carbon
Significant breakthrough in cheap
battery/ storage technologies
Political instability in oil rich countries
Constraints in oil supply
Sustainability (e.g. GHG emissions
reductions) become a major driver of…
Potential for STEP CHANGE to transform the transport system
away from BAU in the long term (1 = Low, 5 = High)
Top 5 step changes most
likely to transform the
transport system away
from BAU in the long term:
1. Sustainability becomes a
major driver of NZ policy
2. Constraints in oil supply
3. Political instability in oil
rich countries
4. Significant breakthrough
in cheap battery/ storage
technologies
5. Global price on carbon

21. STEP CHANGES (III)
1
2
3
4
5
1 2 3 4 5
LikelihoodofSTEPCHANGEbecomingwidespreadin10years
Potential for STEP CHANGE to transform transport system away from BAU in the long term
A
B
E
D
C
I H
G
F
J
K
L
M
A - Spikes in the price of liquid fossil fuels
B - Political instability in oil rich countries
C - Constraints in oil supply
D - Significant breakthrough in cheap battery
/ storage technology
E - Mass production of low cost electric
vehicles
F - Sustainability becomes driver of policy in
NZ
G - Global price on carbon
H - Decreasing the proportion of transport
spend on roads in NZ
I - Significant global economic decline
J - Major investment in NZ rail system
K - Substantial increase in cost of air travel
(NZ domestic)
L - Catastrophic natural disaster or disease
outbreak
M - Radical societal shift to healthier lifestyles
HIGH likelihood
HIGH potential
High likelihood
Low potential
Low likelihood
Low potential
Low likelihood
High potential

22. STEP CHANGES (IV)
TOP PRIORITIES FOR INTERVENTION
1
2
3
4
5
1 2 3 4 5
LikelihoodofSTEPCHANGEbecomingwidespreadin10years
Potential for STEP CHANGE to transform transport system away from BAU in the long term
A
B
E
D
C
I H
G
F
J
K
L
M
A - Spikes in the price of liquid fossil fuels
B - Political instability in oil rich countries
C - Constraints in oil supply
D - Significant breakthrough in cheap battery
/ storage technology
E - Mass production of low cost electric
vehicles
F - Sustainability becomes driver of policy in
NZ
G - Global price on carbon
H - Decreasing the proportion of transport
spend on roads in NZ
I - Significant global economic decline
J - Major investment in NZ rail system
K - Substantial increase in cost of air travel
(NZ domestic)
L - Catastrophic natural disaster or disease
outbreak
M - Radical societal shift to healthier lifestyles
HIGH likelihood
HIGH potential
High likelihood
Low potential
Low likelihood
Low potential
Low likelihood
High potential

23. TIME FRAMES

24. TIME FRAMES
Item Median time frame
Readily available battery technologies enabling a 300km range
for personal EVs
5-10 years
Inclusion of international aviation in post-Kyoto negotiations
on global greenhouse gas emissions
5-10 years
A 20% increase in energy efficiency of freight movements in NZ 5-10 years
15% decrease in VKT for the private vehicle fleet in NZ 10-15 years
30% increase in the uptake of PT in NZ 10-15 years
Global price on carbon 10-15 years
Oil prices average $200/ barrel 10-15 years
Fully integrated, mixed modal transport system available in all
NZ cities with a population over 100,000
15-20 years
EVs make up 20% of NZ’s private vehicle fleet 15-20 years
Autonomous vehicles make up 20% of NZ’s private vehicle fleet 20 years +

25. TIME FRAMES
Median – 5-10years
0
5
10
15
20
25
0-5 years 5-10 years 10-15 years15-20 years Beyond 20
years
Never Don't know
Numberofrespondents
Readily available battery technologies enabling
a 300km range for personal electric vehicles
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
0-5 years 5-10 years 10-15
years
15-20
years
Beyond 20
years
Never Don't
know
Numberofrespondents
Oil prices average $200/barrel
Median – 10-15 years

26. TIME FRAMES
0
5
10
15
20
25
0-5 years 5-10 years 10-15
years
15-20
years
Beyond 20
years
Never Don't
know
Numberofrespondents
Electric vehicles make up 20% of New
Zealand's private vehicle fleet
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
0-5 years 5-10
years
10-15
years
15-20
years
Beyond
20 years
Never Don't
know
Numberofrespondents
30% increase in the Uptake of public
transport in New Zealand
Median – 15-20 years
Median – 10-15 years

27. CHARACTERISTICS OF A
SUSTAINABLE TRANSPORT
SYSTEM

28. CHARACTERISTICS OF A SUSTAINABLE
TRANSPORT SYSTEM
High levels of agreement
• Integrated multi-modal transport
system in urban areas over 100,000
people (96% strongly agree or agree)
• Cross-modal ticketing systems ( 92%)
• Making the full cost of car ownership
evident to the public so that all modes
are on a level playing field (82%)
• Ensuring rural areas have access to
information and communication
technologies to support ICT (80%)
• Technologies to support modal choice
(72%)
Lower levels of agreement
• Targeted design of transport for
the needs of different segments
of the population (56% neutral,
disagree, or strongly disagree)
• Electrifying the entire rail system
(40%)

29. DISCUSSION

30. THE FUTURE OF NEW
ZEALAND'S TRANSPORTATION
SYSTEM: THE FINDINGS OF A
FOUR-STAGE DELPHI SURVEY
Debbie Hopkins, Alaric McCarthy, Janet Stephenson
Energy Cultures II Project
Centre for Sustainability (CSAFE)
Debbie.hopkins@otago.ac.nz

31. MBIE (2014) Energy in New Zealand
http://www.med.govt.nz/sectors-
industries/energy/energy-
modelling/publications/energy-in-new-
zealand/Energy-in-New-Zealand-2014.pdf
REFERENCES