Transport, Energy and CO2 in Asia: Where are We Going and How do We Change it?


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By Lew Fulton, International Energy Agency (Paris, France)

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  • Transport, Energy and CO2 in Asia: Where are We Going and How do We Change it?

    1. 1. Lew Fulton International Energy Agency, Paris Better Air Quality Conference 12 November, Bangkok Transport, Energy and CO2 in Asia: Where are We Going and How do We Change it?
    2. 2. A talk in two parts <ul><li>Where are we going? </li></ul><ul><li>How do we change it? </li></ul>
    3. 3. IEA Energy Technology Perspectives 2008 Baseline: Liquid Fuels to 2050
    4. 4. IEA ETP 2008 Baseline Transport Energy Demand Projection About a tripling world-wide, 2005-2050
    5. 5. IEA ETP 2008 - Asia Baseline Transport Energy Use Projection About an 8-fold increase, 2005-2050
    6. 6. IEA ETP 2008 - Asia Baseline Transport Energy Demand Projection By Mode
    7. 7. ETP vehicle ownership projections Cars per 1000 as a function of GDP/cap Personal income, thousand real USD (using PPPs) per capita *Based on a scenario where ownership/income relationships in non-OECD countries track those in OECD countries; Income growth based on OECD/WB projections
    8. 8. Ownership close-up for Asia
    9. 9. ETP vehicle ownership projections Total car stocks by region
    10. 10. Why should we care? 1: energy security and balance of payments <ul><li>International oil costs will account for transfers on order of USD 2 trillion during 2008 </li></ul><ul><li>Dramatic price swings will probably continue </li></ul><ul><li>Consumers are unlikely to address the problem without government help </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Higher fuel prices will have only a small effect on demand for vehicles </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>We will need massive investments in efficient transport infrastructure </li></ul></ul>
    11. 11. 2. IPCC: we need a global 50% CO2 cut by 2050 IEA ETP 2008: Where CO2 reductions come from
    12. 12. ETP Scenarios: Transport CO2 Emissions
    13. 13. ETP and Modal Shift <ul><li>ETP does not include travel behaviour changes, except some modal shift: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Passenger – hold transit shares to 60% rather than drop to 30% by 2030, via strong BRT and NMT investments </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Passenger – high-speed rail investments sufficient to induce a shift of 5% of highway trips and 10% of air trips to rail in 2030 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Freight – rail investments sufficient to cut trucking over 750km by 25% in 2030 </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Net effect is a 20% reduction in car travel, 10% reduction in truck travel compared to baseline case in 2030 </li></ul><ul><ul><li>The problem is that travel increases 4-6 fold in baseline </li></ul></ul>
    14. 14. Vehicle fuel economy, new sales Baseline ETP <ul><li>Fuel economy does improve in the baseline scenario, but not much after 2015 </li></ul><ul><li>The new CAFE law in US and the Top runner in Japan are included. In Europe fuel economy reaches 130g CO 2 per km by 2015 </li></ul>
    15. 15. Vehicle fuel economy, stock Baseline ETP <ul><li>New car improvements are passed on to the total stock, but stock turnover takes time </li></ul>
    16. 16. Resulting LDV (Car, SUV) Fuel Use in Asian Regions
    17. 17. How LDVs can achieve large oil use and CO2 emissions reductions <ul><li>Efficiency improvement generally is our cheapest option </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Clearly our most important near term option </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Electric and hydrogen vehicles are important long-term options, but will take time </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Plug-in hybrids are a likely first step </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Biofuels could be important, but only if sustainable and really deliver CO 2 reductions – big questions </li></ul>
    18. 18. ETP 2008: Low Cost Transport Option <ul><li>New LDVs can become 50% more efficient by 2030 </li></ul><ul><ul><li>In some countries, progress toward this 50% target has already begun </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>This is, very roughly, moving from 8 L/100 km to 4. EU is already well below 8. </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Some individual vehicles, like Prius are there already </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Involves maximum use of available technology, including hybrids </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Important to constrain increases in vehicle size, weight and power </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Plug-in hybrids may play a significant role if battery costs come down further </li></ul></ul>
    19. 19. IEA ETP 2008: New LDV Fuel Economy
    20. 20. IEA Estimates: FE improvement potential in OECD Countries <ul><li>Based on an analysis of technology potential and current market penetrations for engines, drive-trains, components, weight reduction and aerodynamic improvements </li></ul>
    21. 21. IEA Fuel Economy Estimates: Range of Technology Costs and Fuel Savings per Vehicle <ul><li>The fuel savings values in this figure can be obtained from the FE improvement estimates in previous figure and either of the following assumptions: a) fuel saved over 200k km of driving, oil at $60/bbl, no tax; or b) fuel saved over 100k km of driving, $100/bbl, $0.25/litre fuel tax. </li></ul>
    22. 22. LDV Technology Costs ETP: Net cost per tonne CO2 Opt: optimistic, pes; pessimistic; based on $60/bbl oil and undiscounted vehicle and fuel costs
    23. 23. ETP: Cumulative Additional Investment and Fuel Savimgs
    24. 24. Biofuels Use in BLUE Map 26% of Transport Fuel Use in 2050
    25. 25. Biofuels Land Use in Blue Perhaps about 150 million hectares worldwide Based on yields for different feedstocks reported in literature; assumes 100% from agricultural/forest crops; other sources like residues would reduce land requirement.
    26. 26. Conclusions <ul><li>Without policy interventions oil use in Asian countries may expand by an order of magnitude by 2050 </li></ul><ul><li>Reduction in vehicle travel growth rates will be key, via strong transit investments and comlementary measures </li></ul><ul><li>It appears reasonable to target a 50% reduction in vehicle energy intensity, on average around the world by 2030 </li></ul><ul><ul><li>However we need better data on baseline values and current trends in individual countries </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Biofuels, EVs, possibly FCVs will play a role; but extent and timing is quite uncertain for each </li></ul>