Urban China - How to be Holistic?


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DCF special issue Urban China #35: How to be holistic? 花好四万亿!

Edited by Neville Mars, with contributions by the DCF and numerous international designers and institutes.

China, like so many countries, is adopting a stimulus package. An impressive 4.2 Trillion RMB has been allocated to keep the economy moving at a Chinese pace. But unlike so many Western nations struggling to determine how the money should be spent, China has a stringent to-do list with a strong urban focus. Nation building through city building. Yet it remains unclear how the individual bullets on this list - infrastructure, housing, environment, etc. - should relate to each other. Yet a ‘better city’ can only be the result of an integrated vision connecting all the scales of design. After thirty years of accelerated growth a top-down megaproject approach of crude answers can no longer suffice. This special issue of Urban China examines the contradictory choices China faces, mapping out an holistic approach from policies to individual people.


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Urban China - How to be Holistic?

  1. 1. M.U.D - Market-driven Unitentional Development development zones* MONOSPRAWL urban - rural income gap growth population growth GDP growth POLICYSPRAWL uneven landreforms TRANSSPRAWL INFRASPRAWL urban income growth DCF Sprawl Derivatives remittances hukou* migration to townships development zones* rural income growth hukou* reforms and villages SPEEDSPRAWL nces remitta = conversion* hukou* migration to urban augmenting urban - rural income gap population growth GDP growth periphery TVE* growth, dispersed development in townships and villages non-hukou migration semi urbanized villages*, floating villages* xiao kang* society, suburban upgrade*, employment in TVEs* rollover* doorstep urbanization* rural labour surplus urban income growth urban population growth footprint per capita growth service space and growth infrastructure remittances hukou* migration to townships rural income growth SCATTERED URBAN and villages hukou* reforms brickification*, upgrade* ces n remitta EXPANSION = conversion* hukou* migration to urban periphery TVE* growth, dispersed development policy sprawl* in townships and villages non-hukou migration semi urbanized villages*, floating villages* rollover* SCATTERED URBAN EXPANSION policy sprawl* How To Be Holistic?
  2. 2. 6 - P1 8 超级卫星城/周静 - P3 sm dism +P67 di - P49+P53 pee 帷泽+王帷新 ee Satellites/ Jing ZHOU NG Wei-Tse WA 体/S uch/Sp Super 和谐社会/王 ety/Richard 魇 梦 us Soci mdo A Harmonio Doo ANG Wei-Hsin W +Stephen - P50 光明Smart-city - 林纯正 -city /CJ LIM Guangming Smart 深圳中心区皇岗片区 改造规划/杜娟 - P5 3 Central Huanggan g Redevelopmen t Juan Du - P54 +余启昌 武+黄颂威 维 克北京/廖 g, CUHK 后奥林匹 drew YU Beijin NG + An mpic post-Oly IAUW+ Ray WO eL Laurenc 后上海世博方案/沃瑞伯 斯工作室设计团队 - P5 4 Post-Shanghai Expo Proposals AA School, Tom Vere bes 6 工作室- P5 姆•沃瑞伯斯 市类型/汤 ation 转型中的城 Transform pologies in AADRL Urban Ty EAN.CN // EBES, OC Tom VER P56 克工作室- /泽纳尔/霍 A 码 中国城市编 RBAN CHIN ING U Studio COD / HOUCK 何新城 MARS NERPLUS ZELL le Nevil 从“ 极大 ”到 “米 塔” /哥 伦比 亚大 学建筑研究院- P58 Mega to Me ta China Lab, Columbia University 比 - P25 安·霍恩斯 - P60 廉与张婷婷 ina 阿德里 醉品/陈威 ORNSBY Ch ”麻 omtown Adrian H quot;新兴都市 tics in Bo ANG arco -Ting ZH Urban N and Ting AN William T - P64 存在]/王硕 14 15 京[或一切 NG 狂野北 Shuo WA e[ij]ing/ Wild B 6 室 - p39,5 间设计实验 水晶石空 on ban Creati Crystal Ur 6 森- P6 克? 杨 hi nes e P22~51 ?/洛 基金会 - the C 面貌么 城市的 Re-Imag e 动态城市 采访卢正刚 - p70 中国 想改变 Want t o ang Interview LU Zhengg DCF u So,Yo k JANSEN Lo City? 分屏2020/杰弗里 ·卢德洛- P75 Split Screen 20 20/Jeffrey LUD LOW
  3. 3. 和谐二元体 Market capitalism in its purest form received a deathblow in 2008. Not because of the global economic melt-down, but because of the sudden erosion of its Harmonizing the Hybrid underlying ideology. Alan Greenspan, the oracle of the free market, conceded incompetence: “The idea of the last forty years, that the markets were best to 文/何新城 regulate themselves was flawed [...] some of the critical pillars underlying market competition arguably, have failed”. Text/Neville MARS In the months that followed stimulus packages took the world by storm. Words 2008年,市场资本主义的单纯形式遭受了致命一击。原因并非全球 like bailout were uttered by the starkest economic conservatives, while American +1 经济的崩溃,而是基本意识形态所受的突然冲蚀。艾伦·格林斯潘,自由 Towards the Chinese Dream in 8 Steps liberals suddenly opposed the idea of government spending fearing it might just 市场的大哲人,亦承认了能力不足:“在过去40年,相信市场最好还是 line the pockets of those who corrupted the system in the first place. The world’s 自我调控的观点是有误的……某些支撑市场竞争的关键支柱,可以说倒塌 political financial logic turned upside down. The contradictions in the economic belief system brutally revealed themselves in sheer apathy. Billions of dollars were 了”。之后数月,各种经济刺激方案席卷全 allocated to rescue the economy, 球。当最顽固的经济保守派大喊“救市” but no clear objective to spend 时,美国的自由派却突然反对政府大量开 the money could be 支,担心这只会让罪魁们中饱私囊。整个世 formulated. 界的政治金融逻辑似乎在瞬间颠倒,经济信 仰体系的矛盾暴露。美国政府拨款数十亿拯 救经济,却未有清楚的目标。 警告 中国4.2万亿经济刺激方案引来了大量 争议。也许是太冲动、难以实施,而且让 地方政府承担总预算的四分之三,在房地 你 产业不景气的时刻未免牵强。然而,即使 这一措施有效,我们仍需提出一个更深刻的 问题——为什么一定要维持8%的GDP增长 率?这一贯彻了十年之久的观念最初是为了 人为地保障就业及社会稳定,但却与市场经 济原则相悖、并与防止经济过热的目标冲 突。不可否认,维持平衡相当艰难,但很明 显,中央政府将一如既往地选择更快增长而 非经济放缓。波及西方世界的危机应该是有 力的警告,但事关中国未来发展的根本问题 却仍未触及。 审视现代性 强大的经济倚赖于快速城市化。然 而,建设的加速度导致了许多根本问题—— 从大规模拆迁所致的住房紧张到肆无忌惮 16 17 梦魇体 插画-文/SPEEDISM [朱利安•弗里道尔 + 皮特简•金寇斯] A post-heroic scenario for the Chinese Dream. Illustration-Text/SPEEDISM A post-heroic scenario against the Chinese Dream. [Julian FRIEDAUER + Pieterjan GINCKELS A post-heroic magic ingredient to maintain the Chinese Dream. www.speedism.net Chinese future = bright +I : *THE DREAMING DOOMDRAGON* 后英雄大戏,为中国梦服务;后英雄大戏,打倒中国梦; SPEEDISM peeks behind the D*R*E*A*M panorama, where the D*R*E*A*M [omnivorously happy] 后英雄式神秘配方,永葆中国梦 will be 100% real and nothing ever happens. Behind that stage there lurks 中国的未来=一片光明 a content Doom, the twin to a sad dream bubble waiting to burst. Doom SPEEDISM踱步走进梦中风景,渐渐步向终结。 Dough is the resulting urban landscape revealed in 8+1 steps that take us SPEEDISM透过D*R*E*A*M的幕布向外窥望,唯有D*R*E*A*M百分之百真实, deeper into a happy future where Doom and Dream become one... 除此之外什么都不存在,什么也从未存在。舞台后面,潜伏着志得意满的梦 魇,悲梦的双生子,即将破碎。梦魇体是始作俑的城市景观,8 +1步,步步呈 I : niPod tower [holy holism], la tour idéale; height 250m, 8+1 floors. 现,带领我们接近美好未来,在此Doom与Dream合二为一…… II : Mama-Papa tower [be careful! the post-orgasmic urban orgy is so 1:你Pod塔 [神圣的整体性] ,拉斐尔理想;高250米,8 +1层。 permanent]; height 375m, 51+62 floors. 2:慈母严父塔 [小心!后高潮城市狂欢永无止尽] ;高375米,51+62层。 III : Jiao Zi tower [growing to become hole]; height 348m, 100 floors. 3:饺子塔 [逐渐长成一个洞];高348米,100层。 IV : Caged tower [all we need is fear]; height 230m, 75000m² retail surface 4:笼子塔 [我们只需敬畏];高230米,75000平零售。 V : CMYK Tower [render reality in a grey loop]; height 8+1Gb RAM. 5:四色塔(CMYK) [在灰色环中上演现实];高度初始化中,8 +1 Gb内存。 VI : Partyworld tower [there is only you!]; height 385m, 8+1 dance floor. 6:派对世界塔 [只有你!];高385米,8 +1舞厅。 VII : Jade tomb [big business is dead, long live big business]; height 227m, 56 7:翡翠墓 [大企业已死,大企业当立];高227米,56层。 floors. 8:P [后直觉Goo];大目录8.8 +1 + I;做梦的恶龙随时随地,欢天喜地 .I.G VIII : P [Post-Intuitive Goo]; body mass index 8.8+1. .I.G
  4. 4. 的市场投机。当闪电式城市化已过而立之年,我们应该问,这是否 Warnings collective (even global) progress have surfaced. This is true for the crises in the 一国两力 housing market, but equally for the augmenting environmental pressures felt 仍是人们想要的、可被接受的模式。我们需要评估高速增长的质量,以及 Much critique has also been raised about China’s 4.2 trillion RMB stimulus particularly at an individual level in the emerging economies. So far government 它塑造的社会。可惜并无先例或范本。我们不能根据前30年的经验来预 package. It might be too impulsive, difficult to implement and indeed too 迥异于30年前的是,中国地图不再是可任意作为的白板*。今天,中 initiated urbanization has been an effective tool to offset mounting social tensions expensive at a time of a real-estate slow-down for local governments to cough 测这辆‘东方快车’的方向;中国也不能照搬其他已成功国家曾经的方 国的经济――与其他任何地方一样――与城市的地理条件密切关联。成功 against bright new developments. In a magical show of central might the outside up 3/4 of the sum. However, assuming the effectiveness of this measure, there 向。30年间,世界已翻天覆地。西方工业国家线性的经济发展已经不够 的社会主义-市场经济的二元体与它一手造成的界限模糊的城乡二元体- world (and China’s hinterland), were presented with the highest achievement of is a more profound question we should raise. Why must an impressive 8% three decades of top-down planning and orchestration. For a month in August 用。个人财富和整体进步(甚至全球进步)之间的微妙关联已浮出水面。 不幸却越来越不融合。新的城市景观复杂多变,如规划只是将孤立的项目 annual growth rate be upheld in the first place? This decade old concept aimed the air was clean, even the rain was controlled, but soon after smoggy clouds 这不仅在危机突现的房地产市场、也在新兴经济中个体承受的环境压力上 to artificially safeguard employment - and with it stability - flies in the face of 简单排列,那么这相悖于投资有先后的特性。我们需要的是空间与投资关 rolled back over Beijing. Similarly actions to tackle the post-Olympic slowdown China’s move to a market economy, moreover it contradicts the stated ambitions 升中得到体现。迄今为止,政府启动的城市化已成为一个有效工具,它成 系相协调的规划。强大的、自下而上的经济也在广泛而体系化地生长,与 were confronted with the harsh reality of a real-estate slum. The limits of artificial to prevent its economy from overheating. The task of this balancing act is 功打消了开发所加剧的社会对立情绪。而在显中央神威的魔法秀中,呈现 自上而下的经济及其规划机制平行。尽管是两个遥远的世界,却彼此促 growth have been reached. undeniably daunting, yet it seems clear the central government will invariably 给外国(和中国内陆)的是30年自上而下的规划与协调的最高成就。整 进。当中国宏观地规划着它的城市和形像,微观项目之累加也在扩张着城 opt for faster growth over a slow down. The extensive crisis in the West should Preconditions 个八月,空气清新,连雨水也受控,但不久后烟雾即滚滚回京。类似应对 市景观,以市场化无序开发的形式,或者说MUD* (如下图所示)。 provide a strong warning, yet fundamental questions about China’s future are still In addition to the strategic contradictions, there are plenty of practical challenges 后奥运经济放缓的措施还遭遇了房地产市场的严峻现实。人为促增长的界 not addressed. facing China’s stimulus package. But unlike Wall Street's demand for a blind 限似乎已经到来。 隐匿的现实 Unlearning Modernity check, at least China has been extremely precise in defining how it wants to 观察MUD的构成会粉碎对草根城市与协调景观最坚定的信仰。在街 allocate the money. The targets primed for investment range from society and A strong economy depends on fast urbanization. Yet many basic problems can 前提 livelihood (housing security, medical care and education), to infrastructure (rural 道层面,中国新城市空间被细致规划得十分完美,而同样精致的孤岛型开 be contributed to the accelerated pace of construction, ranging from housing infrastructure, the power grid, railways, highways and airports), the environment 除了战略性矛盾外,中国的经济刺激方案面临诸多现实的挑战。然 shortage as a result of large-scale demolition policies to rampant speculation. 发项目连绵成片,两者共同展现了宏观规划的有机体系。中国下一阶段的 (ecological protection After precisely 30 years of flash urbanization we need to ask if this is still a 而与华尔街只要空白支票不同,中国在界定钱的拨配问题上非常明确。投 最大挑战就是如何将这两股力量汇聚。这很困难,不仅因为发展的速度, and water desired, even acceptable model. We need to assess the specific qualities of 向领域包括社会、民生(住房保障、医疗保健和教育)、基础设施建设 更由于中国有悖常理的现实。与日俱增的华丽与貌似现代的外表,城市化 treatment), to high-speed growth and the type of environments and society it produces. (农村基础设施、电网、铁路、公路和机场)、环境(生态保护和水治 post-disaster 的有机本质却被掩盖。其结果是,政策和规划措施只会在特定范畴内合 Unfortunately there are no precedents. We cannot evaluate the direction reconstruction. 理)以及灾后重建。这些都是有明确方针目标的实干工程,将为中国的发 理,即今天我们所面对的问题。对明天将必然出现的情势却全无应对,它 of this fast moving train based on the conditions it left behind 30 All are hands- 展带来一丝新变。这一国家建设的方法,是以大规模的刺激为基础,加上 years ago. Nor can China determine its intended direction based 们终会沦为问题制造者。空间碎片化,社会分层化等中国城市景观的种种 on projects on what other countries have achieved. In three decades 谨慎放行的自下而上的创业精神。而从改革伊始,这就被证明是成功的妙 分立又加深了。机会之窗亦被关上。 with a clear the world has dramatically changed. Linear economic 方。在没有更好的定义时,社会主义与市场 directive development along the lines a n d 经济的二元体恐怕要算最佳描述。当西 界定形态 of western industrial purpose 方资本主义岌岌可危之时,中国的经 nations will no longer 建筑业不断发展,疯狂地加速运转以满足新城市的需求,全面的融 that suffice. The minute 济刺激方案提供了一次认真定义 设计、研究及教育于一体、能创造未来景观的的系统却未出现。中国城市 should interconnections 社会主义市场经济体制的良 help 的组件寥寥数日即可设计出炉,但之后的MUD布局却要被固化数十年。 between give 机。但这有一个前提:我 individual 经济不再是城市化的唯一 们需要思考并追踪它 prosperity 前提,城市形态反而日益 and 将如何塑造社会与 重要地塑造着经济潜力。 景观。 其长期影响难以被高估。 一项美洲、亚洲和欧洲城 市空间构成的比较研究显 示了它在能耗、生产力、 创意甚至包括犯罪率和幸 福感方面的作用。要超越 建筑群或开发区的范畴进 18 19
  5. 5. 行设计,与打造我们的和谐社会一样艰巨。 nuance to China’s ongoing development. This method of nation building, based on China's new urban realms look perfectly micro-planned while the same polished the ensuing MUD configurations then fixed for decades. Yet the economy is no large-scale incentives coupled with a careful release of island developments at the scale of the region merge together to reveal macro- longer just a prerequisite for urbanization, instead urban patterns are increasingly 与世界其他地区不同,中国还可期待下一个30年的增长,以及唯一 organic systems. The biggest challenge for China’s next phase is to consciously shaping future economic potential. The long-term effects can hardly be 的机会去调合散点城市扩张的结果。接纳了城市的动态本质,密度便可 bottom-up entrepreneurialism has been the success formula from the beginning of address these two forces as a single dynamic. This is difficult, not just because overestimated. A comparison between the spatial constitution of American, Asian 成为让发展流畅的有效工具。我们依然可以放弃国家-市场机器安排的 the reform era. It is, for lack of a definition, the best way to describe the socialist of the development speed, but because of the counterintuitive reality China is and European cities reveals the impact on energy use, productivity, creativity, even 静态的、了无生气的布局,前提是我们鼓励一个(真正自由的)自由市 market hybrid. With Western capitalism in disrepair China’s stimulus package producing. Increasingly slick and superficially modern, the organic nature of its crime rates and happiness. Designing the city beyond the scale of the compound 场采纳灵活的城市框架――它不仅更具可持续性,在这个跌宕起伏的时 presents a real opportunity to mindfully define the socialist market economy. But urbanization remains concealed. As a result policies and planning measures are or development zone is becoming as difficult as harmonizing society itself. there is a precondition: that we consider and map how it will likely shape society rational only to the extent that they address what is seemingly in front of us 代也更利于投资。短期的经济增长可能有助于稳定,快速城市化阻碍了 and landscape. today. Unresponsive to an inevitably different reality tomorrow they ultimately But unlike the rest of the world, China can anticipate another three decades 开发商和类似机构进行革新、寻求多元,并破坏了质量导向的竞争。 contribute to the problems. Spatially fragmented, socially divided the schisms of growth; a unique opportunity to coordinate its scattered organic expansion. 当房地产市场走出供方市场时,这本是我们的期待。 One Nation, Two Forces that characterize China’s urban landscape widen. The window of opportunity is Embracing the dynamic nature of the city, density itself becomes an effective tool closing. to streamline growth. We can still abandon the static and sterile layouts the state- Unlike three decades ago, China’s map can no longer be approached as a tabula market machine generates, if we encourage a free free market to adopt flexible 路线图 rasa*. Today, China’s economy - as any where else - is entirely interconnected Defying Patterns urban frameworks - this is not just more sustainable but more investment-friendly with its urban geographic conditions. Unfortunately, the success of the socialist- 任何推动经济发展或让社会和谐的理想,其关键都在于我们对城 in these turbulent times. Short-term economic growth might support stability, market hybrid is increasingly at odds with the blurred rural-urban hybrid it While the building industry has evolved, tremendously accelerating its 市愿景的全局把握。讽刺的是,中国的前奥运规划好比西医:治疗单 fast pace urbanization discourages developers and institutes alike to innovate and produces. The new landscape is complex and dynamic; operations to meet the demand for new cities, a comprehensive diversify, undermining the quality-driven competition we could expect as the real- 独病症时又快又猛。现在完成过半,后奥运中国必须开始启用自己的 ill-suited to investments as a blunt listing of isolated design, research and education system needed to estate market moves away from a suppliers’ market. 模式,从粗糙的超大工程疗法转向更广泛的规划哲学。这个改变既紧 objectives. Precisely the awe-inspiring gains that have answer how best to produce the future landscape been made, now dictate a shift towards coordinated is still not in place. The components of 迫又重大;既需即刻执行也需持之以恒。规划师不能再躲在“不能 Roadmap spatial-economic planning. Parallel to the top-down China's cities are designed in days; 不无限妥协”这类借口背后,仅仅为了在中国市场立足。规划师必 economy and its planning apparatus a powerful Any ambition to either support the economy or engineer the harmonious society 须承认,设计不是画草图,设计过程也不是选用哪种风格的问题, bottom-up economy has generated a pervasive hinges on our commitment to an holistic urban vision. Ironically, pre-Olympic 而是克服困扰中国式地产开发的一切固有矛盾与障碍。我们大家 organic growth. Two worlds that fear each Chinese planning can best be compared to Western medicine: fast and powerful in other, yet feed off each other. While tackling isolated problems. 都是城市化进程的同谋,也是解决方案不可缺少的一分子。 China macro-plans its cities and icons, 本期《城市中国》的路线图为我们展示了通向另一种 aggregated micro-projects expand Now half-way complete, post-Olympic China must start drawing on its own 未来的道路集合。基于动态城市基金会的研究,以及来 the urban landscape in the form of models, and switch from crude mega-project medication to a broader planning 自世界各地设计师和机构的投稿,我们构建的框架 more Market-driven Unintentional philosophy. This change is both urgent and drastic; its implementation needs to Development, or MUD* (as be both immediate and long-term. Designers can no longer hide behind the much 让独立的点子汇聚成了一幅更大的概念拼图。 在 illustrated below). vaunted excuse ‘endless flexibility is acceptable’ in order to survive in the Chinese 城市运转的不同规模之间,在中国的经济刺激 market. While developers will need to accept that design is not drafting, and that 方案的各部分之间,关联性一点点被塑造。 Concealed Reality the design the process is less a question of applying stylistic cues than a means to 但要警告的是:这并不像连线游戏那样 Observing MUD overcome the contradictions and hurdles that plague China’s development. All of 简单,它不再是黑与白、好与坏的选 formations fractures us involved in the urbanization process are accomplices and we are all an integral the persistent beliefs part of the solution. 择。相反,在每一个交汇点上,我 in both the grass- 们都需要对短期收益和长期投 This issue of Urban China offers a roadmap to mark out a collective route to an roots city and the 资进行反复思量。 orchestrated alternative future. Based on the research by the Dynamic City Foundation and landscape. with contributions from designers and institutes from across the globe, we have At street produced a framework in which the individual ideas come together to form a larger level conceptual patchwork. Step by step correlations are forged between the scales on which the city operates and between the components of China’s stimulus package. But be warned: it is not as straight-forward as join-the-dots, no longer as black and white as good and bad options. Instead, at every junction, we’ll need to think twice about short- term gains and long-term investment. 20 21
  7. 7. 4.2 中国,中国,继续成长吧!但不能这样! 不是叫你停!快快快!得更好! CHINA KEEP GROWING! BUT NOT LIKE THAT! I DON'T MEAN STOP! HURRY UP ALREADY! ONLY BETTER! 文/阿德里安·霍恩斯比 Text/Adrian HORNSBY 1. 中国中国, 继续成长吧! China China, 万亿? Keep Growing! 我们正身处全球风暴之中。美 国卑躬屈膝地祈求外界注入现金;银 行惨淡经营,价格下跌,货柜船空载到 岸。而中国――世界上最全球化的国家 之一――已明确表示:它为全球稳定所做 更慢: 的“最大贡献”将是对自身经济平稳运行 更快: 然而中国的速度正在沦为自己的拖累。那个耳熟 的勉力维持。根本上说,风高浪急之时,一 现代性的地位已经相当牢固;更快就是更 能详的借口——设计没时间为将来考虑——正迅 好。加速增长就是经济活力的明证。保增 切只能指望自己。 速变为自我实现的预言。接受经济放缓是催生大 长是确保社会安定和让中产阶级继续壮大 局观的天然良机。我们需要柔缓的梦想来补给中 第一步 的唯一方法。速度让“中国梦”延续。 国超速的现实。 有充分理由相信,这将符合全世界的最大利 益。西方经济放缓之时,全球经济逐渐转向依赖 SLOWER: STEP FASTER: But China’s raucous speed is catching 中国来维持某种增长的表象;若中国现在也陷入衰 Modernity has firmly established; up with itself. The general excuse there 退,这将把整个世界卷入螺旋式下滑的轨道。所幸的 faster is always better. Accelerated is no time to design with consideration 1 growth is testament of economic 是,全球仍然信心十足。普遍认为,中国的经济增长 for the future, is fast becoming a self- momentum. Keeping growth on pace fulfilling prophecy. Accepting the economic 相当可靠,因为它并非建立在某种单一、有限的资源之 is the only way to safeguard stability slowdown is a natural opportunity to 上,比如石油(如俄罗斯),而是以中国工人不断提升的 and ongoing expansion of the conceive an holistic vision. We must 24 25 middle-class. Speed is what keeps 生产效率为基础。他们有什么原因要停止工作、停止赚钱 supplement China’s fast pace reality with the Chinese Dream alive. slow dreams immediately. 呢? 然而,稍微仔细观察就能发现一副更脆弱的图景。过去 二十年间,中国经济的增长由双引擎驱动,城市化和商品出口在 两侧助燃。目前出口渐趋减少。相对于十五年来持续为26%的年 出口增长态势,西方的衰退已在2008年导致了2%的下滑。因此, 出口已成一大阻力而非动力。与此同时,中央政府愈来愈关心城市土 地征购问题。过去十五年中国的城市面积急遽膨胀了2.5倍。如今,由 于担心耕种能力将持续丧失,政府规定至少需保留一亿两千万公顷的农 业用地。这就是目前所剩无几的面积,而可供城市发展的空间就更稀少而 宝贵了。 商品出口与城市扩张的陡然下滑,齐齐袭来成为两股吹向增长浪潮的强 风。过去曾主导中国物质与社会景观转型的快速城市化模式,现在却被现实前 景哽住呼吸:没有用于发展的新土地,没有发展所需的资本投资,也没有令发展 圆满的最后一个环节即销售所需的国外市场。事实证明,中国的增长远远不是所 谓的资源独立型,事实上它严重依赖于两大截然不同的资源,而直到最近人们依然 预设它们无限无穷。这两者分别是西方消费者的财富,以及中国本身的大国之大。然 而,在世界如此需要它们的此时此刻,它们却双双显出令人不安的疲惫之态。
  8. 8. 4.快快快! 2.但不能这样! HURRY UP ALREADY! BUT NOT LIKE THAT! 即将到来的移民潮构成了中国最大的挑战:由风行“即兴主义”(ad hocism)的前奥运城市潮,进步到更成熟、更具可持续性的后奥运城市社会。这 其次,借助增长模式中的快速城市化,不平衡的问题同 一必然过程在空间上也许并不普遍,但却会牵涉到更多的人――将有更多的人进 样出现在中国国内。同样也是90年代初,鼓励地方官员以企 入城市,带着更大的期望,成为更庞大且不容质疑的存在。中国通过维持自身经 业家的方式提升GDP的中央政策开始实施。这引发了一场多 济平稳运行为世界做出巨大贡献,其重点将是管理涌入的大潮及重新引导增长能 中国 就了“ 自 层次的城市化热潮。发展地方GDP的最佳手段莫过于刺激城市 之和造 力。以上两事,势在必行。且需争分夺秒。 了 的生长 化规模证明 , 化,而地方官员为城市化筹集必需资金的最佳方法¬——莫过于 下而上 挤 市 下和自 描不到的城 屡屡遭到排 未来 出售手里最多的东西:土地。中国各地各级别的官员纷纷收购 自上而 雷达扫 管 限。尽 定的因素, 。 土地,拆除干净,并以出售使用权的方式转售给城市开发商,再 速度” 划的严重局 真正稳 家 规 上而下 市化才是国 所。 用现金去履行基础设施建设的承诺,全力打造光鲜亮丽的市中心 之 城 民间的 口才有安身 e- ined r . 蓝图。根据市场改革的原则,这些程序应该留待它们自己实现, 现实对照 comb 人 迁徙的 h is the -up growt 并根据公报的GDP数据对其进行评估。结果是一场混乱无序、原 eed’ a- m ina Sp and botto ar urbaniz f 子化的、泛滥全中国的建设狂潮,数以千计的中小城市同时迅速 Ch The ‘ top-down o ad the r mitations - Y REALIT 扩大――甚至扩张到过去属于农村的地区――疯狂地为招商引资 w f sult o ale of belo severe li u contin n c 而竞争。在竞争白热化的大气候中, 羽翼未丰的发展中城市纷纷 h The s veals the g. Thoug anizatio rb re in itu, u factor plann CHECK 加入这场杀气浓的削价战,提供给产业发展的土地越来越便宜,税 tion e in s izing own top-d ushed asid rue stabil f tion o 收政策越来越宽松,监管越来越少。接踵而至的是无组织的土地过 1 igra t p ously nation’s ate the m 度消费,而规章制度、规划和施工质量的缺乏更为严峻。 od is the accomm to able ture. 事实上,这应该早就是显而易见的事情,如果能考虑到“快速 the fu 城市化-出口最大化”的态度在本质上就不可持续。首先,在更大 的规划安排中,出口始终需要保持平衡。过去十多年来,中国一直 维持着巨大的对美贸易顺差,出口远大于进口,以美元储备了大量贸 易收益。结果是美国国内低息信贷泛滥,这维持了经济繁荣,但却创 造了巨量债务。任何一家商店老板都知道,你不能总是通过借贷给客 5.只能变得更好! 户来让他们继续购买你的产品。当下的全球金融危机清楚表明:解决 积重难返的全球不平衡问题已经迫在眉睫。 ONLY GROW BETTER! 而在与地方上暗箱交易的保护下,工厂老板横行无阻,几乎不受 近期城市化(即猖獗的土地征购和大量临时人口所推动的 中央规划或市场现实的约束。他们固然生产了廉价的出口商品,但宏 原子化发展态势)的特点可说是五轮齐动向前飞驰。也就是让 观结构却被打上了地方保护主义的烙印,而土地滥用更令其千疮百 各地同时城市化。这是种单向度、非理性的膨胀,全球金融危机 孔。前土地所有者的公然示威说明了这一问题。2007年,官方纪录 轻而易举就将之击溃。但中国4.2万亿人民币经济刺激方案的出台 了8万起发生在中国各地的大规模抗议活动:这一数字是1992年数 却代表了这种做法的终结。它是对中央政府职能的明确认知,如果 字的10倍。其中一半以上都直接与土地问题相关。事情真 放任自流,五个轮子将会脱链,而整架马车将滚进水沟。该经济刺激 不能这么继续下去了。 方案就是那只掌控缰绳的操纵之手。 显然,经济刺激方案最大的组成部分是国家级基础设施建设。铺设新 道路、铁路和机场网络,必然导致各城市根据各自贯通程度而合理化地分 层。重中之重将是国家电网的发展,它将决定未来城市增长的形与量。重工业 可以遵循分布式发电系统,而设置在城外运煤车的终点附近。城市中心将变得 更高端并更依赖IT产业,逐渐串连并挂靠在交织的供电线路上。中央在供电线路 和发电厂方面的投入,很大程度上将承担起国家和区域规划迄今为止依然未尽的责 任。 3.不是叫你停! 从较低的层面看,积极的业主与新兴的城市房地产市场将成为改善城市整合进程的 I’M NOT SAYING STOP! 原则路径。原子化模式鼓励了城市间白炙化的竞争,以及随之而来的波动与市场的短视 行为。然而,若地方官员有了一定管制力度,国有银行对实际土地交易和相关投资结构也 有所掌控,从城市居民的角度来看,城市内的市场事实上是被限制过头了。将对市场自由的 然而,本质性结构混乱却令原子城市化模式能够适应后奥运时代 关注从节点转移到空间上的竞争,这将调动起消费者的积极性,成为第二只――这回是“看 的中国。与此同时,政策纵容了无处不在的地方官僚的政绩创业精神, 不见”的――操纵之手。较之官方鞭策的GDP面积与数据所组成的市场,后奥运时代中国城市 以及对超大城市的固有偏好。在城市化全面启动的90年代,由前任领导人江 的真正竞争发生在真正的公寓、商店、办公室、休闲和文化空间等地方。在此,主角变成住在城 泽民和朱镕基开拓的上海模式,必然对沿海的经济特区(SEZ)有所偏爱。这 中、购买项目的人们。重构城市增长使之更紧贴需求,这将有效防御可能出现的泡沫,并同时攫 些区域可以利用其独特的进出口地位和它们高水准的国际知名度,吸引更多外资, 取更多住宅投资资本。 从而超越了喧嚣的内陆城市。深层的结构性优势使超大城市更容易吸引人力资本, 有的来自国内的毕业生群体,更有来自异国的人才,因为此时这些超大城市已成为 朝着这个方向迈出的重要一步,同时也是新措 了面向世界的国际中心。 施的一部分,就是按揭贷款的首期付 26 27 款降低20%至30% 移民问题将城市的不连贯性表现得最为明显。即使在某些条件下有所松缓,但户 口制度的继续存在就意味着从农村到城市的人口迁徙将继续受到限制。因此,当国家 经济增长的成果偏向城市,城市化的移民则被鼓励离开村庄而不是离开农村,这创造 了高水平的省内人口迁移和流动人口规模。身处被管理的灰色地带,流动人口一直是 最不稳定的城市居民――人口组成中波动最大的部分,他们为城市鞠躬尽瘁,但却被 禁止融入城市的基本结构。 这种不稳定的人口迁徙对城市发展有两大危害。首先,与所处的临时环境之间没 有归属关系,临时移民对周围环境的个人或财务投资水平都较低。没有固定居民,当地 置产门槛越低,业主对城市开发 环境就会恶化到标准之下,但这些都欣然得到了容忍,因为它们被视为了短期问题。关 的反应就越热烈,开发商的影响就越小(但首付过低又会导致投机现 键在于,对于流动人口来说,这些的确是短期问题,但对成长中的城市来说却是严峻的 象再次激增,负资产的风险也会增大)。这个转向蕴含的更深但同样刺激性的暗示,是它将令 现实。城市正备受煎熬。其次,财务投资没有被流动人口注入城市环境,而是以汇款的 更多的钱落入消费者自己的口袋。原本局限在住房上的现金得到释放并进入城市零售领域,这是真正未被世界 形式转向流出,流向那些被认为是更稳定、更长久的地方,比如移民出发的地方。其结 性危机破坏的牛市。 果导致了城市生产创造的资本流出了城市,流入农村而不是为城市的发展提供资金支 持。因此,最需要投资的地方(换言之,钱从何处产生就应该投入这里的下一步发展) 当中国的出口贸易开始紧缩,国内的消费却强劲攀升,2008年零售额增长了22 % 。这无疑是个鼓舞人心的消息, 却现金短缺。这种倒退并非停留在概念上,移民规模将在未来一段时期内加剧,这一 尤其考虑到中国的消费者还只是总体GDP较小的贡献者(不到四分之一,而美国则达到了四分之三),它为未来扩张留下 事实令情况更加严峻。以前,城市规模和面积的膨胀导致了城市人口的大幅增加,且 的巨大空间令人遐想。事实上,是新贵消费者涌入他已安居的城市,计划如何花掉薪水,推动并完成这股增长潮。只有将 因此并入了过去的农村人口,而未来的城市增长则很可能大部分来自农村人口的涌 “他”置于其位,才能将增长点从逐渐瓦解的国家主控、出口导向的运作转移至由消费者主控、以国内消费为主导的销售。 入。中型城市未来将有40至50 % 的人口是移民。但难道他们都只抱有某种临时的期 望吗?如果在一个城市中,过半数的人口并不认为自己真正住在这里,这将意味着什 随着全球风暴的东徙,中国中产阶层的都市购物者――一手拎着大包小包,另一手握着房地产广告画册――站在风暴眼 么呢? 中,仰头凝望。
  9. 9. 往沦 ,规划往 不 图的速度 ,也 了绘制圀{ۄª