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HN Market Insights Q22015 - Retail Sector (ENG)
1.
SUPPLY As of Q2
2015, there were no significant new retail projects entering the market. The total retail supply was approximately 600,000sqm NLA from 30 projects. Shopping centre format continued to dominate the supply of Hanoi’s modern retail development, accounting for approximately 85% of total stock. PERFORMANCE In Q2 2015, the retail market started to pick up with a slight increase in both occupancy and rent, driven by shopping centres in the non-CBD. The average occupancy in the review quarter was 84%, up 0.5% q-o-q. And the average asking rent stayed at US$37.2/sqm/mth, up 0.3 percent. In terms of performance by location, Hoan Kiem District had the highest rental rates due to its prestigious prime location as well as the high quality graded shopping centres, remaining at US$82/sqm/mth. Whilst Long Bien, Ha Dong and Tay Ho District had the lowest asking rents, ranging between US$20 and US$30/sqm/mth. DEMAND Population demographics, the economic recovery and changes in disposable income are expected to boost consumer confidence. Changes in modern shopping centre development vs traditional store outlets became more apparent since store owners have moved into big retail complexes with the benefits of F&B services, parking and security. OUTLOOK In 2015, three shopping centre projects are expected to come online, providing more than 176,000sqm NLA to the market. Big retail suppliers are expected from Tu Liem, Tay Ho, Long Bien and Ha Dong District with the total expected future stock of 60% of market share in the mid-term. The benefits of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and the EU Free Trade Agreement (FTA) coming into effect in a year or two will set Vietnam as an attractive hub for modern retail development towards global retailers since commodity tariff tax are eased. However, future supply entering the market will create pressure on the future performance of modern retail complexes. RETAIL SECTOR Q2 2015 | MARKET INSIGHTS HANOI Figure 1: Supply by type ECONOMY OVERVIEW Vietnam has experienced a positive sign of the economic recovery in 1H 2015 when GDP grew 6.28% y-o-y, which is the highest level in the last 10 years. The consumer confidence index also witnessed significant improvement when reaching 143.1 points, up 10 ppts y-o-y compared to the average target of last year. Total disbursement rate in the foreign funded projects grew by 9.6% y-o-y to US$6.3 billion. In which, real estate sector continued to attract lucrative foreign direct investments with 13% of total new FDI, placed at second after manufacturing. In parallel with the new legal amendment of the Vietnam Housing Law came into effect in July 1st 2015 allowing foreigners to legally own, sell and transfer their properties will boost confidence in property investments. Shopping Centre Department Store Retail Podium Total Total Supply (Project) 19 2 9 30 Average Rent Rate ($US/sqm/month) 85 80 75 Occupancy (%) 89 83 81 Short-term Outlook Table 1: Market Snapshot Figure 2: Market performance DAVID JACKSON General Director david.jackson@colliers.com PLEASE CONTACT US FOR ANY INFORMATION TRAN NGUYEN Business Development Manager tran.nguyen@colliers.com www.colliers.com/vietnam Colliers International is a global leader in commercial real estate services, with over 16,300 professionals operating out of more than 502 offices in 67 countries. A subsidiary of First Service Corporation, Colliers International delivers a full range of services to real estate users, owner and investors worldwide, including global corporate solutions, brokerage, property and asset ,management, hotel investment sales and consulting, valuation, consulting and appraisal services, mortgage banking and insightful research. The latest annual survey by the Lipsey Company ranked Colliers International as the second-most recognized commercial real estate firm in the world. This document has been prepared by Colliers International for advertising and general information only. Colliers International makes no guarantees, representations or warranties of any kind, expressed or implied, regarding the information including, but not limited to, warranties of content, accuracy and reliability. Any interested party should undertake their own inquiries as to the accuracy of the information. Colliers International excludes unequivocally all inferred or implied terms, conditions and warranties arising out of this document and excludes all liability for loss and damages arising there from. This publication is the copyrighted property of Colliers International and/or its licensor(s). ©2015 Colliers International Research 0 50 100 150 200 Shopping Centre Retail Podium Department Store US$/m²/month Source: Colliers International Research Non-CBD Average asking rents (US$/m²/month) CBD Average asking rents (US$/m²/month) Table 2: Significant future supply under construction Project District Type Completion Vincom Nguyen Chi Thanh Dong Da Shopping Centre 2015 Aeon Mall Long Bien Long Bien Shopping Centre 2015 Ho Guom Plaza Ha Dong Shopping Centre 2015 *All rents are gross rents per sqm, including service charge but excluding VAT 91% 3% 6% Shopping Centre Retail Podium Department Store Source: Colliers International Research
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