Super Returns Latin America 2011

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Private Equity Returns in Brazil, Retornos de fundos de Private Equity no Brasil

Private Equity Returns in Brazil, Retornos de fundos de Private Equity no Brasil

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  • 1. Value  crea?on  and  the   challenge  of  building  a  PE   returns  database  Presented  by  Claudio  Vilar  Furtado    Execu7ve  Director,  GVcepe  cepe@fgvsp.br,  February  2011.  Copyright  @2011.    Fundação  Getúlio  Vargas  -­‐  GVcepe   1  
  • 2. Thanks  to  our  Sponsors  and  Partners   2nd  Census  Project  Sponsor  Founding  Members  &  Sponsor   Strategic  Partners   Copyright  @2011.    Fundação  Getúlio  Vargas  -­‐  GVcepe   2  
  • 3. Agenda  1.  The  Second  Census  Project  2.  PE  Returns  in  Key  Regions    3.  Nature  of  PE  Returns  4.  PE  Returns  in  Brazil      5.  Closing  Remarks  Copyright  @2011.    Fundação  Getúlio  Vargas  -­‐  GVcepe   3  
  • 4. The  Second  Census  Project     Gather  and  interpret  data  to  reflect  the  reality  of  the  Brazilian  PE&VC   industry  and  its  impact  on  the  economy.   80%   of  industry     par7cipants  surveyed   180   144   PE&VC   Managing   Surveyed   Organiza?ons  Copyright  @2011.    Fundação  Getúlio  Vargas  -­‐  GVcepe   Source:2nd  Census  of  the  Brazilian  PE&VC  Industry  –  ABDI/FGV   4  
  • 5. Industry  Overview  as  of  December  2009   •  US$  36.1  bn    Commi`ed  Capital   •  Main  LPs:  Pensions  22%,  Parent  Orgs.   Investors   18%,  Endowments  10%,  GP  Orgs  9%,   Family  Offices  9%     •  144  PE&VC  Firms   General  Partners   •  258  Investment  Vehicles   •  Est.  1,593  Professionals  &  Staff   •           502  porVolio  cos.,  Dec  09   •             2005-­‐2009  Period:   PorVolio  Companies   •   414  new  investments   •   103  total  exits   •   39  IPOs    Copyright  @2011.    Fundação  Getúlio  Vargas  -­‐  GVcepe   Source:2nd  Census  of  the  Brazilian  PE&VC  Industry  –  ABDI/FGV   5  
  • 6. Expansion  of  the  Asset  Class   Committed Capital allocated to Brazil (US$ Bn). Committed Capital as % of GDP40   2.3%   2.5%   36  35   2%  30     2% 15%  p.a  25   27   1.5%  20   1.2%   1%   2  x  15     1%10   13   2  x   0.5%  5   6  0     0% 2000   2001   2002   2003   2004     2005 2006   2007     2008 2009   The  evolu2on  of  commi8ed  capital  is  impressive,  increasing  more  than  6  2mes  since  2004   and  2  fold    as  percentage  of  GDP.      Copyright  @2011.    Fundação  Getúlio  Vargas  -­‐  GVcepe   Source:2nd  Census  of  the  Brazilian  PE&VC  Industry  –  ABDI/FGV   6  
  • 7. Commi^ed  Capital   December  2009  (US$  MM)   Types   Private     Govt.   Total   %   Commi`ed  Capital  Dec.  2008  28,984   Tradi?onal  *    27.168      935      28.103     78%   Fundraising  (Vehicles  in  US$)  3.093   Corporate  Venture  **    350      -­‐        350     1%   Fundraising  (Vehicles  in  R$)  2.979   Infrastructure  ***    3.955      -­‐        3.955     11%   Reduc?ons  (Vehicles  in  US$) -­‐1.531   Real  Estate    2.734      -­‐        2.734     8%   Reduc?ons  (Vehicles  in  R$) -­‐732   Timber    970      -­‐        970     3%   Exchange  Rate  Effect  3.318   Total    35.177      935      36.112     100%   Commi`ed  Capital  Dec.  09  36.112  *          Investment  vehicles  with  focus  on  manufacturing,  trade,  services,  agriculture  and  tradi7onal  businesses.  **      Subsidiaries  of  industrial  corpora7ons.  ***    Investment  vehicles  dedicated  exclusively  to  oil  &  gas,  energy  and  self  defined  infrastructure  funds.  NOTE:  Reduc7ons  refer  to  discon7nued  opera7ons,  termina7on  of  funds,  alloca7on  to  Brazil  changes  and  reduc7ons  of  commiGed  capital    by  investors.  Copyright  @2011.    Fundação  Getúlio  Vargas  -­‐  GVcepe   Source:2nd  Census  of  the  Brazilian  PE&VC  Industry   7  
  • 8. Diversified  Fund  Investor  Base   Commi`ed  Capital  by  Investment   Main  Types  of  Investors   Vehicle’s  Legal  Structure  *  All  vehicle  structures  according  to  Brazilian  PE&VC  regula7on  CVM  391,  209,  402.  NOTE:  Parent  Organiza7on  includes  Corporate  Ventures  and  Banks’  cap7ve  PE&VC  subsidiaries.   Copyright  @2011.    Fundação  Getúlio  Vargas  -­‐  GVcepe   Source:2nd  Census  of  the  Brazilian  PE&VC  Industry  –  ABDI/FGV   8  
  • 9. Investment  and  Fundraising  (US$  bn.)   Es2mate  of  US$  17.8  bn.    of    ”Dry  Powder”  ready  to  be  invested    as  of  December  2009  Notes:  Fundraising  based  on  sample  of  258  investment  vehicles  by  144  PE&VC  Managing  Organisa7ons.  Investment  based  on  Sample  of  394  and  95  Investments  made  by  144  and  45  PE&VC  Managing  Organisa7ons  in  2005-­‐2008  and  2009  respec7vely.   Copyright  @2011.    Fundação  Getúlio  Vargas  -­‐  GVcepe   Source:2nd  Census  of  the  Brazilian  PE&VC  Industry  –  ABDI/FGV   9  
  • 10. Investments  by  Sectors  of  Economic  Ac?vity  (US$  MM)   2005-­‐2008  (Includes  New  and  Follow-­‐on  Investments)     Food  and  Beverages   24%   Various  Industries*   14%   Civil  Construc?on/Real  Estate   13%   Retail   12%   Financial  Services   11%   Energy  and  Oil   4%   Educa?on   4%   Communica?on   4%   Agribusiness   3%   IT  and  Electronics   3%   Pharmaceu?cal/Medical/Aesthe?cs   3%   Entertainment/Tourism   2%   Extrac?ve  Industries   2%   Infrastructure  -­‐  other   1%   *  Various  Industries:  E.g.:  Chemicals,  Mechanic,  Sample 2005-2008: 394 investments by 144 PE&VC Orgs. Electric,  Metallurgic,  Packaging,  Tex7les.  Sample 2009: 95 investments by 45 PE&VC Orgs. **  Various  Services:  E.g.:  Call  Center,  Consul7ng.  Copyright  @2011.    Fundação  Getúlio  Vargas  -­‐  GVcepe   Source:2nd  Census  of  the  Brazilian  PE&VC  Industry  –  ABDI/FGV   10  
  • 11. Investments  by  Sectors  of  Economic  Ac?vity  in  US$  MM   2009  (Includes  New  and  Follow-­‐on  Investments)     54%   Energy  and  Oil   39%   10%   Financial  Services   14%   9%   Entertainment/Tourism   11%   6%   Extrac?ve  Industries   8%   5%   Transporta?on  and  Logis?cs  Services   7%   5%   Including  all  investments   Educa?on   6%   3%   Agribusiness   4%   Excluding  one  US$  0.765bn   Infrastructure  -­‐  other   2%   investment  in  energy  transmission   Various  Services**   2%   Pharmaceu?cal/Medical/Aesthe?cs   1%   Food  and  Beverages   1%   Retail   1%   1%   *  Various  Industries:  E.g.:  Chemicals,  Mechanic,  Electric,   Various  Industries*   Metallurgic,  Packaging,  Tex7les.   IT  and  Electronics   1%   **  Various  Services:  E.g.:  Call  Center,  Consul7ng.   1%   Sample 2005-2008: 394 investments by 144 PE/VC Orgs. Civil  Construc?on/Real  Estate   Sample 2009: 95 investments by 45 PE&VC Orgs.Copyright  @2011.    Fundação  Getúlio  Vargas  -­‐  GVcepe   Source:2nd  Census  of  the  Brazilian  PE&VC  Industry  –  ABDI/FGV   11  
  • 12. New  Investment  Vehicles  Raised   50   47   45   40   37   35   31   30   25   19   20   15   13   11   10   9   8   10   7   7   7   7   5   3   1   0   95  and   1996   1997   1998   1999   2000   2001   2002   2003   2004   2005   2006   2007   2008   2009   before   30  to  50  new  investment  vehicles  raised  p.a.  since  2008,  vigorous  entry  and  expansion  in  the   industry.  Note:  215  Investment  Vehicles  reported  by  120  PE/VC  Managing  Orgs.   Copyright  @2011.    Fundação  Getúlio  Vargas  -­‐  GVcepe   Source:2nd  Census  of  the  Brazilian  PE&VC  Industry  –  ABDI/FGV   12  
  • 13. Exits  &  Dives?tures   70   Dives7tures  2005  -­‐  2009  (Including  Total  &  Par7al)     61   60   2   48   15   50   42   4   3   37   40   3   4   24   12   4   6   Write-­‐off   30   27   8   1   12   10   Buyback   5   20   11   Trade  Sale   4   10   6   Secondary   17   19   16   10   Sale   8   IPO   4   0   1   2005   2006   2007   2008   2009  NOTE:  the  sample  contains  151  dives7tures  (107  total  &  44  par7al)  from  2005  to  2008  &  37  dives7tures  (30  total  &  7  par7al)  in  2009  with  informa7on  about  the    exit  mechanism.  Copyright  @2011.    Fundação  Getúlio  Vargas  -­‐  GVcepe   Source:2nd  Census  of  the  Brazilian  PE&VC  Industry  –  ABDI/FGV   13  
  • 14. Agenda  1.  The  Second  Census  Project  2.  PE  Returns  in  Key  Regions    3.  Nature  of  PE  Returns  4.  PE  Returns  in  Brazil      5.  Closing  Remarks  Copyright  @2011.    Fundação  Getúlio  Vargas  -­‐  GVcepe   14  
  • 15. VC  Gross  Returns:  Sand  Hill  Econometrics     VC Index: January 1992 - June 2010 (December 31, 1991 = 100) 3,500 2010-Q2 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 Dec/91 Jun/92 Dec/92 Jun/93 Dec/93 Jun/97 Dec/97 Jun/98 Dec/98 Jun/99 Dec/99 Jun/00 Dec/00 Jun/01 Dec/01 Jun/02 Dec/02 Jun/03 Dec/03 Jun/07 Dec/07 Jun/08 Dec/08 Jun/09 Dec/09 Jun/10 Dec/94 Dec/95 Dec/96 Dec/04 Dec/05 Dec/06 Jun/94 Jun/95 Jun/96 Jun/04 Jun/05 Jun/06 The  Sand  Hill  Index  had  an  annualized  return  of  16.9%  from  end  1988  to  the  end  of  2004.   More  recently  it  performed  at  an  annualized  return  of  8%  from  2005  to  the  end  of  2009.  Source:  Sand  Hill  Econometrics  available  at:  h^p://www.sandhillecon.com/index-­‐download.php   15  
  • 16. PE  Net  IRRs  to  LPs  in  Key  Regions  by  C.A.   Compara?ve  End-­‐to-­‐End  Returns  by  Region  as  of  09/30/2009.   Absolute   Region   5  year   10  year   %  Change   Change   La?n  America  &  Caribbean  PE   19.06%   1.71%   17.35   1015%   Emerging  Market  VC  &  PE   12.83%   6.63%   6.2   94%   US  Buyout   10.44%   7.68%   2.76   36%   Western  Europe  VC  euro   -­‐2.01%   -­‐4.13%   2.12   51%  Source:  Cambridge  Associates  September  2009  Quarterly  report.   16  
  • 17. PE  Returns  in  Emerging  Markets  by  IESE  &  BCG   IFC  experience  in  emerging  markets,  period  2000-­‐2006.   12  points     It  has  improved   greatly  since  2000.   17.3%   5.3%   4.4%   Before  1990   1990  -­‐1999   2000  -­‐  2006  Notes:  IFC’s  fund-­‐level  data,  BCG  analysis.  Data  reflect  176  PE  funds  in  EM.  The  return  is  net-­‐of-­‐fees  &  carried  interest,  the  cutoff  for  fund  data  was  2006  vintage  year.  Source:  New  Markets,  New  Rules,  BCG  &  IESE  Report,  November  2010.       17  
  • 18. Caselli´s  Prime  Work:  PE  Returns  in  Italy     Carefin-­‐Bocconi  (Gross-­‐of-­‐fees)  SAMPLE       NATURE  OF  DEALS      Investment  period*   1999  -­‐  2005   Unleveraged  Deals   70%  Investments   804   Sample  by  Stage   Leveraged  Deals   30%  PE  Funds   87  Man.  Cos.   58   Median  Sales   EUR  126  M.   Turnaro unds  *exited  no  later  than  07   Median  EBITDA   EUR  16  M.   6%   Early   Stage  FINDINGS       16%   PE   Growth  Average  IRR   33.17%   52%  Largest  IRRs     Buyouts   Buyouts   26%  Stock  Market  Index   17.95%  2  yr  Government  Bonds   8%  Conclusions:   3.  Contractual  agreements  (exit  ratchets,  lockups)  1.  IRR  is  mainly  driven  by  growth  in  sales,  ROA  and   have  a  posi2ve  effect  on  growth.   ROE.   4.  Longer  holding  period  investments  awarded    2.  IRR  affected  by  put  op2ons  and  tag  along  rights.   with  higher  IRRs.   Source:  Caselli,  S.,  2009,  Explaining  Returns  in  Private  Equity  Investments,  Carefin  Bocconi.   18  
  • 19. Agenda  1.  The  Second  Census  Project  2.  PE  Returns  in  Key  Regions    3.  Nature  of  PE  Returns  4.  PE  Returns  in  Brazil      5.  Closing  Remarks  Copyright  @2011.    Fundação  Getúlio  Vargas  -­‐  GVcepe   19  
  • 20. Nature  of  PE  Returns  in  Mature  Markets  Evidence  of  UK  PE  disaggregate  returns  100%   90%   80%   56%   Half  of  returns  come     70%   from  impact  of   60%   leverage.   50%   100%   40%   30%   22%   20%   44%   10%   22%   22%   0%   PE  management   Underlying  stock   Impact  of  leverage   Gross  IRR   market  sector  Source:    How  profitable  has  Private  Equity  been  and  where  have  those  profits  come  from?  UK  study,    Julian  Francs,  based  on  a  paper  and  presenta?on  by  Viral  V.  Acharya,  and  Conor  Kehoe.     20  
  • 21. Nature  of  PE  Returns  in  Brazil   Drivers  of   Mature     Brazil      Comments  on  the  Brazilian  model   returns   Markets   Leverage        Much  less  reliant  on  debt.       Growth          Key  component  for  crea7ng  IRR.       Many  more  opportuni7es  with  macro   Mul7ple          condi7ons  improving  and  opportuni7es  for   expansion   proprietary  deals.   Greater  need  of  the  type  of  skills  and   Efficiency  gains           business  knowledge  provided  by  PE  firms.    It  is  not  driven  by  leverage  and  aggressive  cost  cu`ng;  rather  IRR  is  driven  mostly  by  growth    and  efficiency  (focus  on  opera2onal  improvement).  Source:  Is  Brazil  a  good  opportunity  for  PE  investments?,  Casabona  2010.  Note:    9  PE&VC  firms  based  in  London  and  Sao  Paulo  were  surveyed  .     21  
  • 22. Key  Company-­‐Industry  Features  for  PE  Investments  in  Brazil     Brazilian   Economy   ü  High  growth  rates       ü  Fragmented  (Roll  up  strategy)   ü  Non-­‐cyclical  sectors   Industry   ü  Health  compe77veness  (no  price  war)   ü  Low  governmental  regula7on     Investment   ü  Aligned  with  GPs  exper7se   Thesis   Company   ü  Lack  of  financial  sophis7ca7on  from  management   Majority  stake   ü  Succession  problems       Company   ü  Good  management  team   Minority  stake   ü  Domain  knowledge  of  the  sector  from  management   Company’s  common   ü  Stable  cash  flow   ü  High  entry  barriers   features   ü  Low  fixed  costs   ü  High  market  share  &  strong  brand   ü  Low  Capex   ü  Low  customer  concentra7on     ü  High  profit  margins     ü  A`rac7ve  entry  valua7on   ü  Scaling  business  model   ü  Clear  exit  strategy    Source:  Is  Brazil  a  good  opportunity  for  PE  investments?,  Casabona  2010.  Note:    9  PE&VC  firms  based  in  London  and  Sao  Paulo  were  surveyed       22  
  • 23. Agenda  1.  The  Second  Census  Project  2.  PE  Returns  in  Key  Regions    3.  Nature  of  PE  Returns  4.  PE  Returns  in  Brazil      5.  Closing  Remarks  Copyright  @2011.    Fundação  Getúlio  Vargas  -­‐  GVcepe   23  
  • 24. Challenge  of  Crea?ng  a  PE  Returns  Database   The  challenge   •  Less  than  50  PE/VC  Managing  Organiza?ons    have  more  than  10  years  inves?ng  in   the  country,  of    which  60%  have  completed  the  en?re  investment-­‐to-­‐exit  cycle.   •  Fund-­‐level  returns  are  not  yet  available.   •  The  performance  repor?ng  requirement  has  been  newly  introduced  by  self-­‐ regula?on  in  December  2010.   A  changing  scenario   •  Significant  and  stable  growth  in  the  industry.   •  GVcepe  has  created  a  comprehensive  database  and  data  collec?on  system  at  the   poruolio  company  and  fund  levels  to  supply  the  industry  with  the  properly   constructed  performance  data.  Copyright  @2011.    Fundação  Getúlio  Vargas  -­‐  GVcepe   24  
  • 25. Individual  Investments  Gross-­‐of-­‐Fee  Returns  in  each  Investment   Vehicle     Sample  Ques?onnaire  Copyright  @2011.    Fundação  Getúlio  Vargas  -­‐  GVcepe   25  
  • 26. NAV  for  each  Investment  Vehicle  Copyright  @2011.    Fundação  Getúlio  Vargas  -­‐  GVcepe   26  
  • 27. Individual  Investments  MOI*   Exited  2004/05  -­‐  2010   MOI  /  COC  Median  mul7ples  of  investment   30%   100%   90%  Quar7les   Range   Median     25%   80%   70%   Top   10  >   13.42   20%   60%   Rela?ve  Frequency   3rd   5  -­‐  9.9   6.6   15%   Cumula?ve  Frequency   50%   40%   2nd   3  -­‐  4.9   3.45   10%   30%   Lower   1  -­‐  2.9   2   5%   20%   10%   0%   0%   1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9     10                                    Above   11  12  13  14  15  16  17  18  19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26   Mul7ple  of  investment  Note:  Median  holding  period  (4.2  years)  and  median  exit  value  (US$  86.8).    Sample:  25  Deals,  15  IPOs    &  10  Trade  Sales.  7  cases  in  R$  and  18  cases  in  US$.   Source:2nd  Census  of  the  Brazilian  PE&VC  Industry   27  
  • 28. Individual  Investments  IRR     Exited  2004/05  -­‐  2010   Median  IRRs   18%   IRR     100%   16%   90%        Quar7les        Range        Median     14%   80%   Top   100  >   162%   70%   12%   Rela?ve  Frequency   3rd   50  -­‐  99   66%   60%   10%   Cumula?ve  Frequency   2nd   25  -­‐  49.9   37%   50%   8%   Lower   0  -­‐  24.9   18%   40%   6%   30%   4%   20%   2%   10%   0%   0%   0%   45%   90%   135%   180%   225%   270%   315%   360%  Note:  Median  holding  period  (4.2  years)  and  median  exit  value  (US$  86.8).     IRR  Returns  Sample:  25  Deals,  15  IPOs    &  10  Trade  Sales.  7  cases  in  R$  and  18  cases  in  US$.   Source:2nd  Census  of  the  Brazilian  PE&VC  Industry   28  
  • 29. Excess  returns  over  CDI*   Exited  2004/05  -­‐  2010   Annual  returns  in  excess  of  CDI*   Median  excess  returns  over  CDI   30%   100%   95%   90%        Quar7les            Range        Median   25%   85%   80%   75%   70%   20%   65%   Top   170  >   271%   Rela?ve  Frequency   Cumula?ve  Frequency   60%   55%   3rd   130  -­‐  169.9   141%   15%   50%   45%   40%   2nd   105  -­‐  129.9   110%   10%   35%   30%   25%   Lower   80  -­‐  104.9   100%   20%   5%   15%   10%   5%   0%   0%   80%   100%  120%  140%  160%  180%  200%  220%  240%  260%  280%  300%  320%  Note:  Median  holding  period  (4.2  years)  and  median  exit  value  (US$  86.8).     *CDI,  Interbank  Loan-­‐Rate   Sample:  25  Deals,  15  IPOs    &  10  Trade  Sales.  7  cases  in  R$  and  18  cases  in  US$.   Source:2nd  Census  of  the  Brazilian  PE&VC  Industry   29  
  • 30. Required  Returns  by  GPs  for  Single  Investments   Expected  median  nominal  return  (R$  %  p.a.)     42.5   35   30   26.25   25   22.5   22.5   19.75   19.5   Macroeconomic  data   (%)   CDI   11.14   Gov  Bonds  (LTN)*   12.5   Infla7on  (IPCA)**   5.9   Expected  Infla7on   4.5   *LTN  01/01/12   **Last  12  months   Sources:    h^p://www.portalbrasil.net/ipca.htm          h^p://www.ce?p.com.br/          h^p://www.tesouro.fazenda.gov.br          Focus  Forecast  2011  This  sample  consists  of  77  answers  by    71  PE&VC  managing  organiza?ons.   Copyright  @2011.    Fundação  Getúlio  Vargas  -­‐  GVcepe   Source:2nd  Census  of  the  Brazilian  PE&VC  Industry   30  
  • 31. Agenda  1.  The  Second  Census  Project  2.  PE  Returns  in  Key  Regions    3.  Nature  of  PE  Returns  4.  PE  Returns  in  Brazil      5.  Closing  Remarks  Copyright  @2011.    Fundação  Getúlio  Vargas  -­‐  GVcepe   31  
  • 32. Closing  remarks    Ø The  official  results  of  the  Second  Census  will  be  released  on  March  1st.    Ø GVcepe  is  concluding  a  comprehensive  industry  research  with  ABDI’s  government  support  and  ABVCAP’s  ins?tu?onal  backing.   What  is  next?   Ø  To  provide  a  complete  performance  database,  GVcepe  is  working  on   performance  data  with  a  pre-­‐selected  “Best  Prac?ces  Group”.   Ø   Get  commitment  from  PE&VC  firms  to  fill  out  the  performance  data   ques?onnaires.           Copyright  @2011.    Fundação  Getúlio  Vargas  -­‐  GVcepe   32  
  • 33. Best  Prac?ces  Reference  Group   PE/VC Managing Organizations1 Advent International23 AG Angra Investimentos Angra Partners Gestão de Recursos e Assessoria Financeira Best  Prac7ces  Group    4 Antera Gestão de Recursos S/A5 Axxon Group6 BNDESPAR7 Brookfield8 BTG Gestora de Recursos Ltda 12%  9 CRP Companhia de Participações 21%   Angels  10 Darby Overseas Investments, Ltd. 4%  11 Darby-Stratus Infrastructure  12 DGF Investimentos13 FIR Capital Partners Gestão de Investimentos S.A. Private  Equity  14 Floripa Angels15 Gávea Angels Seed  /  Venture  16 Gávea Investimentos17 General Atlantic18 GP Investments 63%  19 InfraBrasil20 Modal Administradora de Recursos S.A.21 NSG Capital Administração de Recursos S.A.22 Pátria Investimentos23 Prosperitas Investimentos S.A.24 Rio Bravo Investimentos S.A. Together  they  represent  50%  of  the  25 São Paulo Anjos26 Tarpon Investments Industry’s  Commi8ed  Capital.    27 TMG CapitalCopyright  @2011.    Fundação  Getúlio  Vargas  -­‐  GVcepe   Source:2nd  Census  of  the  Brazilian  PE&VC  Industry   33  
  • 34. Thank  you   for  your  a^en?on   Presenta7on  co-­‐authors  Prof.  Cláudio  V.  Furtado   Alexander  Appel   Victor  C.  Casabona  Filho  Phone:  +55  (11)  3285-­‐4222   Researcher   Sloan  Fellowship  2010   claudio.furtado@fgv.br   GVcepe   London  Business  School   Phone:  +55  (21)  8369-­‐69669   Phone:  +44  (0)  7872  490666   alexander.appel@fgv.br   vcasabona.sln2010@london.edu  Copyright  @2011.    Fundação  Getúlio  Vargas  -­‐  GVcepe   34