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The Future of Financial Regulation
The Future of Financial Regulation
The Future of Financial Regulation
The Future of Financial Regulation
The Future of Financial Regulation
The Future of Financial Regulation
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The Future of Financial Regulation

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"The Future of Financial Services”, organized by Capco and NYU-Poly …

"The Future of Financial Services”, organized by Capco and NYU-Poly

Presenter: Allen Ferrell
Greenfield Professor of Securities Law
Harvard Law School

June 16, 2011

Published in: Business, Economy & Finance
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  • 1. The Future of Financial RegulationThe Post Crisis World of Finance Conference June 16, 2011 Allen Ferrell Greenfield Professor of Securities Law Harvard Law School 1
  • 2. ABX Index ABX.HEAAA Closing Prices since Jan 2007110.000105.000100.000 95.000 90.000 85.000 80.000 75.000 70.000 65.000 60.000 55.000 50.000 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 / 2 / 2 / 2 / 2 / 2 / 2 / 2 / 2 / 2 / 2 / 2 / 2 / 2 / 2 / 2 / 2 / 2 / 2 / 2 / 2 / 2 / 2 / 2 / 2 / 2 / 2 / 2 / 2 / 5 8 / 2 8 / 2 5 / 9 3 / 7 1 4 8 2 6 9 / 3 6 / 0 4 / 8 1 / 5 9 3 7 0 4 7 / 1 2 / 2 2 / 3 2 / 4 1 / 5 1 / 3 / 1 / 2 / 1 / 2 / 8 2 / 9 2 / 0 1 / 1 1 / 2 / 1 / 2 / 1 / 2 / 2 2 / 1 2 3 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 9 1 0 1 1 1 2 2 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 2006-1 AAA 2006-2 AAA 2007-1 AAA 2007-2 AAA 2
  • 3. CDS Spreads Broker CDS Spreads 450 400 350 300 250 d a e r p S200 150 100 50 0 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 1 / 1 / 1 / 1 / 1 / 1 / 1 / 1 / 1 / 1 / 1 / 1 / 1 / 1 / 1 / 1 / 1 / 1 / 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 1 1 1 Date Lehman Brothers Merrill Lynch Morgan Stanley Citigroup Goldman Sachs JPMorgan ChaseSource:[1] Bloomberg 3
  • 4. Housing Sales Data Ye a r-O v e r-Ye a r P e r c e n t C h a n g e in E x istin g S in g le -F a m ily H o m e S a le s 1969 - 20086 0 .0 0 %4 0 .0 0 %2 0 .0 0 % 0 .0 0 %-2 0 .0 0 %-4 0 .0 0 %-6 0 .0 0 % 9 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 6 - 6 - 7 - 7 - 7 - 7 - 7 - 7 - 7 - 7 - 7 - 7 - 8 - 8 - 8 - 8 - 8 - 8 - 8 - 8 - 8 - 8 - 8 - 9 - 9 - 9 - 9 - 9 - 9 - 9 - 9 - 9 - 9 - 9 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - n c v t p g l n y r r b n c v t p g l n y r r b n c v t p g l n y r r b n c v t p g l n a e o c e u u J u a p a e a e o c e u u J u a p a e a e o c e u u J u a p a e a e o c e u u J u J D N O S A J A M F J D N O S A J A M F J D N O S A J A M F J D N O S A J M M M A c t u a l S a le s % P re d ic t e d S a le s % 4
  • 5. Housing Futures Historical CME Housing Futures ‐ Compsite Index225220215210205200195190185180175170 Aug‐06 Oct‐06 Dec‐06 Feb‐07 Apr‐07 Jun‐07 Aug‐07 Oct‐07 Dec‐07 Feb‐08 Apr‐08 Aug‐07 Nov‐07 Feb‐08 May‐08 Aug‐08 5
  • 6. Housing Prices Year-Over-Year Change in Monthly Housing Prices January 1969 - September 2008 20% Statistically Significant Price Change 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2Note: Housing prices are a weighted average of the prices of Northeast (22%), Midwest (22%), West (28%), and South (28%).Source: Housing prices used are Median Existing Single Family Home Prices retrieved from National Association of Realtors. 6

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