Country insights for Russia from BP's Energy Outlook 2035 published in 2014. Russia will remain the largest net exporter of energy, satisfying 4% of global energy demand by 2035.

1. BP Energy Outlook 2035
Russia
Russia will remain the largest net exporter of energy, satisfying 4% of global
energy demand by 2035. Here are a few reasons why:
•
Russia’s energy production and
consumption will grow by 21% and 20%
between 2012 and 2035.
•
Fossil fuels will account for 84% of Russian
primary energy consumption in 2035, down
from 89% in 2012.
•
The country’s share of global energy
production and consumption will both
decline slightly from 10% to 9%, and from
6% to 5%, respectively.
•
Natural gas will keep the lead in Russia’s
fuel mix, yet its share will decline from 54%
today to 50% in 2035; oil’s share will
remain flat, coal’s share will decline slightly.
•
Russia will remain the world’s largest
primary energy exporter, with net exports
of 736 Mtoe by 2035.
•
•
Russia’s liquids production (11 Mb/d in
2035) will trail only Saudi Arabia and the US.
Tight oil production will commence post2020 and gradually climb to 7% of the
country’s total by 2035.
Gas will also remain the leading fuel in
power generation, but its share will decline
from 55% today to 44% in 2035 as nuclear
and hydro are set to rise to 20% and 15%.
•
Energy consumption in power generation
will rise by 13%; energy use in transport by
49%.
•
Oil’s share of transport will go down from
94% today to 91% in 2035. A combined
share of gas and electricity will grow to 9%.
•
Despite significant improvements in energy
efficiency, Russia’s energy intensity will
remain about twice as high as the OECD
average, reflecting an earlier stage of postindustrial development and harsh climate.
•
Russia’s CO2 emissions will grow by 14%,
well below energy consumption growth.
•
Gas production (79 Bcf/d in 2035) will
remain predominantly conventional—shale
gas will contribute only 5% by 2035—yet
will still be the second largest in the world
(behind the US).
•
Nuclear (+72%) and hydro (+34%) will lead
consumption growth, followed by oil
(+20%), gas (+12%), and coal (+10%).
•
Renewables will remain under-developed as
their share of demand will reach just 1% in
2035 versus a 11% average in the OECD.
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