BP Energy Outlook 2035 - Russia country insights 2014
BP Energy Outlook 2035
Russia will remain the largest net exporter of energy, satisfying 4% of global
energy demand by 2035. Here are a few reasons why:
Russia’s energy production and
consumption will grow by 21% and 20%
between 2012 and 2035.
Fossil fuels will account for 84% of Russian
primary energy consumption in 2035, down
from 89% in 2012.
The country’s share of global energy
production and consumption will both
decline slightly from 10% to 9%, and from
6% to 5%, respectively.
Natural gas will keep the lead in Russia’s
fuel mix, yet its share will decline from 54%
today to 50% in 2035; oil’s share will
remain flat, coal’s share will decline slightly.
Russia will remain the world’s largest
primary energy exporter, with net exports
of 736 Mtoe by 2035.
Russia’s liquids production (11 Mb/d in
2035) will trail only Saudi Arabia and the US.
Tight oil production will commence post2020 and gradually climb to 7% of the
country’s total by 2035.
Gas will also remain the leading fuel in
power generation, but its share will decline
from 55% today to 44% in 2035 as nuclear
and hydro are set to rise to 20% and 15%.
Energy consumption in power generation
will rise by 13%; energy use in transport by
Oil’s share of transport will go down from
94% today to 91% in 2035. A combined
share of gas and electricity will grow to 9%.
Despite significant improvements in energy
efficiency, Russia’s energy intensity will
remain about twice as high as the OECD
average, reflecting an earlier stage of postindustrial development and harsh climate.
Russia’s CO2 emissions will grow by 14%,
well below energy consumption growth.
Gas production (79 Bcf/d in 2035) will
remain predominantly conventional—shale
gas will contribute only 5% by 2035—yet
will still be the second largest in the world
(behind the US).
Nuclear (+72%) and hydro (+34%) will lead
consumption growth, followed by oil
(+20%), gas (+12%), and coal (+10%).
Renewables will remain under-developed as
their share of demand will reach just 1% in
2035 versus a 11% average in the OECD.