DO NOT REDISTRIBUTE WITHOUT PERMISSION OF ARI KAPLAN                                                                      ...
“What’s more important than the will to win is   the will to PREPARE to win” – Coach Wooden12/10/2012          Property of...
Prepare to win!12/10/2012   Property of Ari Kaplan. Copyright 2012   3
Seek open-ended questions…      Why is a batter struggling?      Why aren’t we selling as much as we       thought?    ...
Apply analytical models againand again to get answers      Above the Field            Player forecasting            Eco...
Multistructural Data Sources(externally collected)                                    Statistics (MLB, STATS,             ...
Multistructural data sources(internally collected)                                          MiLB Coach Reports         Org...
Understand and manage risks12/10/2012   Property of Ari Kaplan. Copyright 2012   8
Analytics for past, present, future      Learn these three points: What has       happened? What is happening? What      ...
Find actionable patterns in the data                                                 Barry Zito’s Fastball                ...
Find events preceding abusiness issueTrack consistency and deception of release points and velocity as the seasonprogresse...
Predict what might happen fromtime-series information12/10/2012   Property of Ari Kaplan. Copyright 2012   12
Refocus workers from the mundaneto the strategicWhat happened? What is happening? What willhappen?      Scoutable™ report...
Find the “signal from the noise”Example: is a player’s hurt knee affecting their swing?             Before injury: white  ...
Use intelligence to findopportunities• Where did a pitcher generate outs? What pitch types and locations? Below shows  FB ...
The “Human Element”: Quantifying the subjectiveWhich umpires made the most                    What was Hunter Wendelstedt’...
Use intelligence to better “defend”yourself12/10/2012   Property of Ari Kaplan. Copyright 2012   17
Competition: put yourself in their shoes12/10/2012     Property of Ari Kaplan. Copyright 2012   18
12/10/2012   Property of Ari Kaplan. Copyright 2012   19
The future of batter analysis Contact point                         Elevation angle Speed off bat                      ...
The future of batter analysisImage source: Sportvision     12/10/2012             Property of Ari Kaplan. Copyright 2012  ...
The future of fielding analysisImage source: Sportvision     12/10/2012             Property of Ari Kaplan. Copyright 2012...
The future of fielding analysisThe pivot      6-4-3 Double plays   Play #                       Time from SS to 2B*      ...
Create the ULTIMATE game-planImage source: Sportvision     12/10/2012             Property of Ari Kaplan. Copyright 2012  ...
Keynote: Cross Industry Lessons from Moneyball Analytics
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Keynote: Cross Industry Lessons from Moneyball Analytics

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Ari Kaplan keynote presentation at the Big Analytics Roadshow, 2012 in New York City on December 12, 2012

Presentation title: "Cross Industry Lessons from Moneyball Analytics", by Ari Kaplan, "Moneyball" advisor to Major League Baseball teams and President of AriBall

Ari Kaplan is a leading figure in sports analytics. Known throughout the Major Leagues for revolutionizing and modernizing player assessment, Ari's use of analytics and technology helps coaches prepare for games, players understand their strengths and weaknesses, General Managers forecast future performance and risk of player contracts and draft picks, and more.

In this presentation, Kaplan discusses how professional sports teams and players use analytics and data visualization in the Major Leagues. Through his 23 years of experience in over half of all MLB organizations, he will discuss the changes that took place and where analytics will continue to innovate in the future.

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Keynote: Cross Industry Lessons from Moneyball Analytics

  1. 1. DO NOT REDISTRIBUTE WITHOUT PERMISSION OF ARI KAPLAN Ari Kaplan 312-513-009112/10/2012 Property of Ari Kaplan. Copyright 2012 Ari@AriBall.com
  2. 2. “What’s more important than the will to win is the will to PREPARE to win” – Coach Wooden12/10/2012 Property of Ari Kaplan. Copyright 2012 2
  3. 3. Prepare to win!12/10/2012 Property of Ari Kaplan. Copyright 2012 3
  4. 4. Seek open-ended questions… Why is a batter struggling? Why aren’t we selling as much as we thought? Is an injury affecting a pitcher’s mechanics? What would happen if we acquired this company? What should our next steps be? …then give actionable answers12/10/2012 Property of Ari Kaplan. Copyright 2012 4
  5. 5. Apply analytical models againand again to get answers Above the Field  Player forecasting  Economics of contracts  Roster modeling  Trade-deadline analysis  Drafts On the Field  Game Preparation: Advance Scouting  Pro-Scouting  Amateur Scouting  International Scouting  Player Development  Injury prediction and management12/10/2012 Property of Ari Kaplan. Copyright 2012 5
  6. 6. Multistructural Data Sources(externally collected) Statistics (MLB, STATS, AriBall, Inside Edge) Play-by-play (MLB Defense (BIS) Advanced Media) Contracts & Financials Pitch & hit mechanics (eBIS, Stadium (SportVision, Trackman) operations)12/10/2012 Property of Ari Kaplan. Copyright 2012 6
  7. 7. Multistructural data sources(internally collected) MiLB Coach Reports Organizational Video Pro-Scouting Reports Amateur Scouting Injury & Medical Reports International Scouting Advance Scouting Reports Reports12/10/2012 Property of Ari Kaplan. Copyright 2012 7
  8. 8. Understand and manage risks12/10/2012 Property of Ari Kaplan. Copyright 2012 8
  9. 9. Analytics for past, present, future Learn these three points: What has happened? What is happening? What will happen?12/10/2012 Property of Ari Kaplan. Copyright 2012 9
  10. 10. Find actionable patterns in the data Barry Zito’s Fastball release points come down and over a foot12/10/2012 Property of Ari Kaplan. Copyright 2012 10
  11. 11. Find events preceding abusiness issueTrack consistency and deception of release points and velocity as the seasonprogresses. See how injuries, trades, or assignments from the Minors affect mechanics.12/10/2012 Property of Ari Kaplan. Copyright 2012 11
  12. 12. Predict what might happen fromtime-series information12/10/2012 Property of Ari Kaplan. Copyright 2012 12
  13. 13. Refocus workers from the mundaneto the strategicWhat happened? What is happening? What willhappen? Scoutable™ reports: based on full coverage of every pitch, every game. The reports are presented in the same formats that many scouts and organizations use today.  Habits: threw FB whenever there was a 3-ball count. Never threw consecutive pickoff moves.  Strengths: changeup had a big fading action. Kept first-pitches down 48% of the time (25% was avg). Plus control of his FB.  Summary: Threw FB 91-94 (34% of all pitches), cutter 88-91 (12%), sinker 91-94 (28%), curveball 75-78 (13%), changeup 85-87 (13%)  Last game compared to before: threw sinkers 16% less often and cutters 14% more often12/10/2012 Property of Ari Kaplan. Copyright 2012 13
  14. 14. Find the “signal from the noise”Example: is a player’s hurt knee affecting their swing? Before injury: white After injury circles are hits, green are misses12/10/2012 Property of Ari Kaplan. Copyright 2012 14
  15. 15. Use intelligence to findopportunities• Where did a pitcher generate outs? What pitch types and locations? Below shows FB up and slider low/away.• Where did he allow hits? FB inner half, BB up in zone outer half.• These reports can be for pitcher/batter matchups, across years, and much more12/10/2012 Property of Ari Kaplan. Copyright 2012 15
  16. 16. The “Human Element”: Quantifying the subjectiveWhich umpires made the most What was Hunter Wendelstedt’s strike zone?frequent bad calls?Umpire Strike Zones 12/10/2012 Property of Ari Kaplan. Copyright 2012 16
  17. 17. Use intelligence to better “defend”yourself12/10/2012 Property of Ari Kaplan. Copyright 2012 17
  18. 18. Competition: put yourself in their shoes12/10/2012 Property of Ari Kaplan. Copyright 2012 18
  19. 19. 12/10/2012 Property of Ari Kaplan. Copyright 2012 19
  20. 20. The future of batter analysis Contact point  Elevation angle Speed off bat  Field direction Image source: Sportvision12/10/2012 Property of Ari Kaplan. Copyright 2012 20
  21. 21. The future of batter analysisImage source: Sportvision 12/10/2012 Property of Ari Kaplan. Copyright 2012 21
  22. 22. The future of fielding analysisImage source: Sportvision 12/10/2012 Property of Ari Kaplan. Copyright 2012 22
  23. 23. The future of fielding analysisThe pivot 6-4-3 Double plays Play # Time from SS to 2B* Pivot time** 1 .60 .60 2 .40 .40 3 .27 .60 4 .53 .40 5 .53 .40 6 .53 .53 7 .67 .33 Image source: Sportvision * From SS releasing the ball to 2B getting the ball ** From 2B getting the ball to 2B releasing the ball12/10/2012 Property of Ari Kaplan. Copyright 2012 23
  24. 24. Create the ULTIMATE game-planImage source: Sportvision 12/10/2012 Property of Ari Kaplan. Copyright 2012 24

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