reveries-on-the-art-of-war-came-true-is-us-policy-in-afghanistan-ambiguous-a-2009-assessment-for-a-think-tank-which-came-close-to-reality

1. IS US POLICY IN AFGHANISTAN AMBIGUOUS
A.H Amin
Afghanistan will remain the greatest challenge for the strategist and statesman
alike for the next ten years and more.It is not so because Afghans are more
martial or Islam a great religion.But because Afghanistan has too many crafty
neighbours hell bent on destroying this once most peaceful neutral state.
Key trends are as following :-
The south having a Pakistani vassal enclave known as good Taliban in Pakistan
and as the Quetta Shura in Afghanistan.These are regarded by US Army also
except few groups suported by Iran which supplies IEDs to them to attack US
Army.These good boys have most of the lucrative US LOGISTICS AND
CONSTRUCTION SUB CONTRACTS.

2. AT SOME STAGE WHEN US WITHDRAWS A DEAL WOULD BE STRUCK
WITH THEM AND HERALDED AS A TRIUMPH OF US STATESMANSHIP.ALL
IS ON THE CARDS.ONLY AT THE RIGHT TIME.THIS WAY THE TALIBS WILL
HAVE THE BEST OF BOTH THE WORLDS .THE ISLAMIC AND THE
CHRISTIAN.
THE US LOVES THEM FROM INSIDE BECAUSE THEY ARE ANTI IRAN.THE
PAKISTANI MILITARY LOVES THEM BECAUSE THEY ARE GOOD CANNON
FODDER AGAINST INDIA.
I AM SURPRISED THAT NO US JOURNALIST HAS NOTICED THAT USA HAS
NOT CARRIED OUT ANY DRONE ATTACK ON PAKISTANI BALOCHISTAN
FROM WHERE TALIBS CAUSING MAXIMUM CASUALTIES ON US FORCES
IN AFGHANISTAN IN HELMAND,KANDAHAR AND ZABUL OPERATE.ALSO
THE USA HAS NEVER PRESSURISED PAKISTAN INTO LAUNCHING ANY
OPERATION AGAINST THESE TALIBAN IN BALOCHISTAN.

3. THE SIMPLE DEDUCTION IS THAT USA , PAKISTAN AND SAUDI ARABIA
REGARD THESE AS GOOD TALIBAN.
HOWEVER THE SITUATION GETS COMPLICATED WHEN THE
RUSSIAN,IRANIAN AND INDIAN FACTOR ENTERS.ALL THREE DO NOT
AGREE WIT THE US ,PAKISTAN AND SAUDI VIEWS ABOUT GOOD
TALIBAN.
The North strongly anti any Talib with a strong Russian/Indian supported
populace , solidly anti Talib ,comprising both Pashtuns , although in minority and
a majaority non Pashtun element.This area is by and large peaceful and has
government control.
The major Talib weapon are IEDs , Iranian manufactured well tried in Iraq, or
Russian origin well tried in Russian Special Forces trials or local versions well
tested in the sandy wastes of Posti Camp or Shorawak.

4. The USA views the Taliban in the south , the so called good Taliban as a useful
future ally against Iran and possibly China at some stage.It sees this as a
Pakistani linked force which is safe as long as removed from the more
internationalistic elements like Al Qaeda etc.Saudi Arabia sees them as good
killers of Shias in Pakistan and possibly Iran.
The very idea of USA talking to Taliban is naieve at best and Quixotic at
worst.The Taliban do not represent whole Afghanistan.If any settlement has to be
negotiated with them Afghanistan would have to be divided.What the Taliban
signify is not acceptable to at least 50 % of Afghans.So how can USA or NATO
comprmise with a barbarian force that does not represent all Afghans.
Any US withdrawal from Afghanistan in totality would be a great US strategic
failure.Even if the USA withdraws it must retain bases because the Afghans
respect B 52 s and fear Allah although I doubt the second assertion somewhat.
US or NATO withdrawal would lead to a renewed war between Northern Alliance
supported by Russia ,India and Iran and the good Taliban supported by Saudi
Arabia and Pakistan.There would be no Taliban occupation of Kabul or
Mazar.Although the Taliban may practice their brand of Islam at Kandahar and
Ghazni. Afghan war would continue as long as the Indian Pakistani issue is not
decided militarily.

5. A final round has to be fought as all forces of history are moving in this
direction.The military in Pakistan is not an army of a state but an army with a
state. At some stage the Pakistani military will have to decide for a defined course
and all indicators are that the final course will be confrontation with India.

6. The issue is simple.Musharrafs political game led to a conflict between the
Pakistani defence establishment and Pashtuns and Baloch over Islam and
political autonomy.Both have to be fooled again and re-located in the cannon
fodder pool in name of Islam and Pakistan.Thus the renewed support to the good
Taliban and re-starting of supporting the Kashmiris and other insurgents in
India.The Pakistani generals find their old friends useful allies.
All serves the defence establishment in Pakistan .Use Islam to rule Pakistan. The
issue is simple.The Pakistani generals have decided once again to reintroduce
their primacy by intensifying the conflict with India.It suits the generals and the
Pakistani military establishment .Thus Zardari has to be removed.
In history nothing is simple like many in Pakistan think that the USA will

7. withdraw and Islam would prevail. A rather extremely naive view of history.
What actually happens is different from what many think or imagine. It is so
because there are so many forces, tangible and intangible that defines history.
And long ago Machiavelli discovered that God was neither with us nor with them.
To sum up the Afghan war would be fought as a war between USA and Russia and
China and Saudi Arabia and India and Pakistan and Iran till either the Russian-
Indian/Iranian side prevails or Pakistan-USA-Saudi Arabia prevails.USAs role
remains ambiguous and variable.
All said and done Afghans will be the main losers and India or Pakistan or both
may be seriously devastated. Freud long ago discovered that man is not sane.At
least not the populace and the soldiers or politicians who lead them.
-Man would indeed be in a poor way if he had to be restrained by fear of
punishment and hope of reward after death." -Albert Einstein!!