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2008 Developments in the  U.S. Equipment Finance Marketplace   Presented by: Bill Verhelle, Chairman Equipment Leasing and Finance Association
Objectives ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Proposed Presentation Order ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
ELFA
ELFA ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
ELFA three-year business plan ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
ELFA new initiatives ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
The US Economy
The Acquired The Acquirers
Credit market dislocation of historic proportions Savings & loan crisis Leveraged lending & commercial real estate crisis  Technology  bubble and 9-11 attack Ongoing  sub-prime crisis Historical average (~ 6%) Note: GDP data is inflation adjusted Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis GDP  growth Russian  crisis
How is this crisis different (from US perspective)? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Several years of strong economic growth Note: GDP data is inflation adjusted Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis GDP Growth 2004 – 2008 trend line
Home prices falling Sub-prime securitization crisis Loss of confidence in rating agencies Other asset classes affected Frozen structured credit markets
Leverage Ratios of Major Investment Banks Source:  Company Annual Reports (SEC Form 10k)
Historic sub-prime related write-downs ($ in  billions ) Source: Reuters, as of 2008-10-17
Reduction of global lending capacity ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],The impact on capacity is bigger than the headline numbers
U.S. Banks: Charge-offs, Reserves and Delinquencies Source: Federal Reserve
US Federal Reserve Survey
US Federal Reserve Survey
US Federal Reserve Survey
U.S. banks – quarterly delinquency Source:  Federal Reserve Board
U.S. banks – quarterly charge offs Source:  Federal Reserve Board
US Equip. Finance Industry *  ADP Credit Corporation * Bank of America * Bank of the West * Canon Financial Services * Caterpillar Financial Services * CIT * Citicapital * De Lage Landen  * Fifth Third Bank * First American Equipment Finance * GreatAmerica * Hitachi Credit America * HP Financial Services * Irwin Financial * John Deere Credit Corporation * Key Equipment Finance * Marlin Leasing Corporation * National City Commercial Corp. * RBS Asset Finance * Regions Equipment Finance * Siemens Financial Services * US Bancorp * US Express Leasing * Verizon Capital Corp * Volvo Financial Services * Wells Fargo Equipment Finance ELFA MLFI 25 Index
Source: 2006 ELA Survey of Industry Activity U.S. equipment finance industry  charge-offs have increased only slightly  Source:  2008 ELFA Survey of Equipment Finance Activity Full-Year Loss (Charge-Offs) % of Net Receivables
U.S. equipment finance past due receivables Source: MLFI-25
U.S. equipment finance losses (charge-offs)  as a % of net receivables Source: MLFI-25
Credit approval ratios as % of all applications Source: MLFI-25
Equipment finance originations remain steady (in billions) Source:  MLFI-25
U.S. credit markets summary ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Business Implications
U.S. equipment finance  business strategies ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Years of tightening U.S. equipment finance spreads 6.68% 6.80% 7.40% 8.30% Average pre-tax yield Average pre-tax spread Average cost of funds 8.18% Source:  2008 ELFA Survey of Equipment Finance Activity
The equipment leasing and finance industry is capital constrained… … Creating both opportunities and challenges. Lower Higher Depository Structured Vehicle Capital Markets Reliant Existing Credit and Capital Exposure
Sovereign wealth funds The return of familiar strategies Institutional Investors Depositors Pension funds Foreign pension funds Direct originators with placement capabilities Commercial Finance Borrowers Banks SIVs Asset backed securities Conduits Warehouse Lines The “Engineered Finance” Era Commercial Finance Borrowers Institutional Investors Depositors Pension funds
Possible new strategies ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Obama!
US Politics
Additional challenges in the U.S.  equipment finance marketplace ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
FASB and IASB Lease Accounting Project ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Source:  Equipment Leasing and Finance Association
The question of fair-value ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Source: CFO.com, 2008-10-29
Bill Verhelle, Chairman Equipment Leasing and Finance Association

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Verhelle 2008 11 11 Australia Presentation

  • 1. 2008 Developments in the U.S. Equipment Finance Marketplace Presented by: Bill Verhelle, Chairman Equipment Leasing and Finance Association
  • 2.
  • 3.
  • 5.
  • 6.
  • 7.
  • 9. The Acquired The Acquirers
  • 10. Credit market dislocation of historic proportions Savings & loan crisis Leveraged lending & commercial real estate crisis Technology bubble and 9-11 attack Ongoing sub-prime crisis Historical average (~ 6%) Note: GDP data is inflation adjusted Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis GDP growth Russian crisis
  • 11.
  • 12. Several years of strong economic growth Note: GDP data is inflation adjusted Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis GDP Growth 2004 – 2008 trend line
  • 13. Home prices falling Sub-prime securitization crisis Loss of confidence in rating agencies Other asset classes affected Frozen structured credit markets
  • 14. Leverage Ratios of Major Investment Banks Source: Company Annual Reports (SEC Form 10k)
  • 15. Historic sub-prime related write-downs ($ in billions ) Source: Reuters, as of 2008-10-17
  • 16.
  • 17. U.S. Banks: Charge-offs, Reserves and Delinquencies Source: Federal Reserve
  • 21. U.S. banks – quarterly delinquency Source: Federal Reserve Board
  • 22. U.S. banks – quarterly charge offs Source: Federal Reserve Board
  • 23. US Equip. Finance Industry * ADP Credit Corporation * Bank of America * Bank of the West * Canon Financial Services * Caterpillar Financial Services * CIT * Citicapital * De Lage Landen * Fifth Third Bank * First American Equipment Finance * GreatAmerica * Hitachi Credit America * HP Financial Services * Irwin Financial * John Deere Credit Corporation * Key Equipment Finance * Marlin Leasing Corporation * National City Commercial Corp. * RBS Asset Finance * Regions Equipment Finance * Siemens Financial Services * US Bancorp * US Express Leasing * Verizon Capital Corp * Volvo Financial Services * Wells Fargo Equipment Finance ELFA MLFI 25 Index
  • 24. Source: 2006 ELA Survey of Industry Activity U.S. equipment finance industry charge-offs have increased only slightly Source: 2008 ELFA Survey of Equipment Finance Activity Full-Year Loss (Charge-Offs) % of Net Receivables
  • 25. U.S. equipment finance past due receivables Source: MLFI-25
  • 26. U.S. equipment finance losses (charge-offs) as a % of net receivables Source: MLFI-25
  • 27. Credit approval ratios as % of all applications Source: MLFI-25
  • 28. Equipment finance originations remain steady (in billions) Source: MLFI-25
  • 29.
  • 31.
  • 32. Years of tightening U.S. equipment finance spreads 6.68% 6.80% 7.40% 8.30% Average pre-tax yield Average pre-tax spread Average cost of funds 8.18% Source: 2008 ELFA Survey of Equipment Finance Activity
  • 33. The equipment leasing and finance industry is capital constrained… … Creating both opportunities and challenges. Lower Higher Depository Structured Vehicle Capital Markets Reliant Existing Credit and Capital Exposure
  • 34. Sovereign wealth funds The return of familiar strategies Institutional Investors Depositors Pension funds Foreign pension funds Direct originators with placement capabilities Commercial Finance Borrowers Banks SIVs Asset backed securities Conduits Warehouse Lines The “Engineered Finance” Era Commercial Finance Borrowers Institutional Investors Depositors Pension funds
  • 35.
  • 38.
  • 39.
  • 40.
  • 41. Bill Verhelle, Chairman Equipment Leasing and Finance Association

Editor's Notes

  1. Thank you John Bills / David Taylor. And thank you to all the members of the Australian Equipment Lessors Association for your kind invitation to be here today. It’s great to be with you.