The document provides an outlook on weather and commodity markets for 2016 and beyond. It discusses current corn and soybean market prices and expected price ranges. It also analyzes the impact of El Niño and La Niña conditions on weather patterns and agricultural yields in the Midwest. The author notes that climate risk in agriculture is expected to increase over the next 20 years and effective risk management will be important.

1. Weather Outlook
2016 & Beyond
Elwynn Taylor
Iowa State University

2. Corn/Soybean Market
• Market @9am 8 Jun 2016
ELEC. CORN[10] Jul-16 4.30'2 +2'4
Dec-16 4.35'4 +2'2
expect Dec @ $ 2.90 to $3.50
ELEC. SOYBEANS[10] Jul-16 11.55'6 +13'6
Nov-16 11.29'2 +12'4
expect Nov @ $

3. •
173

4. •

5. • SOI 8 Jun 2016 = -6.9 (-8 is full strength El Niño)

6. High risk Moderate High
Beyond

7. El Niño
Friend of the Midwest farmer.
Better friend of the Argentine farmer (El Nino
tends to be a Christmas event that may or may
not persist through the Midwest growing
season).

8. Strong
La Niña
Moderate
El Niño

9. Summer Temperature 2010
• This is OPPOSITE of past 3 years

10. La Niña : Extremes

11. El Niño: 70% chance of yield
greater than the trend.
La Niña: 70% chance of yield
smaller than the trend.
Neutral: 52% chance of yield
greater than the trend.

12. (Oct to date)
Extensive Flooding in Northeast IA
October 2009
October 2010
to 2012
.
El Niño
To
La Niña

13. Return to El Niño

15. Weather Volatility
Climate RISK in Agriculture is
likely to be greater during the
next 20 years
Management of RISK is of
increasing importance

16. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/season.JFM.nao.gif

17. stable period 2 stable period 3 stable period 4
137
Beyond

18. A Little on the USA:
Continental Divide Anomaly
•

19. • Boundary is the Continental
Divide, do NOT expect change

20. Elwynn Taylor
Iowa State University
Climatologist
END
WWW.twitter.com/elwynntaylor
On Google: Where is elwynn

21. Global Warming
•

22. • http://yourweatherservice.com/climate/west-
lafayette/united-states/usin0707

23. • http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=32&net
work=INCLIMATE&station=INC004&year=2016&var=high&dpi=100

24. •

25. • 1994 Record high Yield 1995
decimated Yield

26. mygeohub.org/groups/u2
u/acv

27. •

28. •

29. 159 $4.20
162.3
178
19581
146
170 $3.60 *
165½ $3.70
Example Yield-Price “Risk Wheel”
* Central. IA $3.10
US Corn Wisner
as of 6-12-2015

30. 41 $9.45
45
50
5923
40
46 $8.25 *
45 $8.50
Example Yield-Price “Risk Wheel”
* Central. IA $7.70
US Soybean Wisner
as of 6-12-2015