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ZENITH International Journal of Multidisciplinary Research _________ISSN 2231-5780
Vol.8 (11), November (2018), pp. 35-44
Online available at zenithresearch.org.in
35
IMPACT OF DEMONETIZATION AND G.S.T. ON STOCK
PRICE OF AUTOMOBILE SECTOR
R. RAJESH KARTHIK*, S. THOWSEAF**, DR. M. AYISHA MILLATH***,
ALAGAPPA INSTITUTE OF MANAGEMENT, ALAGAPPA UNIVERSITY, KARAIKUDI .
Email ID –thowseaf786@gmail.com, ayishamillath05@gmail.com.
ABSTRACT
The study is an attempt to identify the aftermath effect of Demonetization and GST on thestock price
of Automobile sector in NSE (National Stock Exchange) and BSE (Bombay Stock Exchange). Ex-
Post facto and Analytical research design is applied to the study. Historical data was obtained from
official NSE and BSE websites. A dataset containing 80 historical data among which 40 were data
before theevent and 40 post-event i.e. Demonetization and GST (Goods and Services Tax). From the
analysis made, it was found that there is asignificant difference in stock price in NSE and BSE
Automobile sector Pre and Post events i.e. demonetization and GST. The result indicated that the
demonetization had anegative impact on NSE and BSE stock price, while GST had apositive impact
on NSE and BSE stock price. Furthermore, it is estimated that 17.89% fall in stock price of NSE &
10.16% fall in stock price of BSEduring demonetization and 3.25% hike in thestock price of NSE and
3.26% hike in thestock price of BSE during GST.
KEYWORD: Impact: Demonetization on AUTO Sensex, Demonetization on AUTO Nifty; Impact:
GST on AUTO Sensex, GST on AUTO Nifty.
Introduction
Two recent major economic reform that India had gone through this decade is demonetization
and GST. Demonetization is aprocess of prohibiting particular home currency for
thetransaction and replacing it with new currency or currencies. Demonetization, in general,
is made with an objective to reduce - fake currencies, hoarding of unaccounted currencies,
terrorism funding, and black money. While GST, is taxation system, France was first to
introduce GST in 1954. GST in India was first proposed during the year 2000 by former
Prime Minister Vajpayee, later it was during 2017 it got implemented. Unlike any other
countries India has more indirect taxes whose list is greater than 24, thereby to reduce
complexity GST was introduced to increase legal transactions in India. GST is simply
unification of all indirect taxes i.e. Sales Tax, Service Tax, Value Added Tax, Custom Duty
& Octroi, Excise Duty, Professional Tax, Property Tax, Entertainment Tax, Education Cess,
Gift Tax, Toll Tax & Road Tax, Swachh Bharat Cess, Infrastructure Cess, Entry Tax and
even so on (bankbazaar, 2017).
Despite, above mentioned economic reforms, it is aninvestmentin various industrial sector
help betterment of theindustry, in turn, making aneconomic contribution. Also, there being a
question that, economic reforms impacting industrial operations one end, will it impact
investment decision too. Thereby, this study is conducted to investigate the impact the
demonetization and GST had on Automobile industrial sector of NSE and BSE.
Literature Review
Demonetization
Demonetization made in India had removed 86% of currency circulations, which had led to
an extreme contraction of money supply within the economy. This contraction, in turn, is
ZENITH International Journal of Multidisciplinary Research _________ISSN 2231-5780
Vol.8 (11), November (2018), pp. 35-44
Online available at zenithresearch.org.in
36
created a cash imbalance by eliminating many commercial and public transactions for the
confined period. It is this commercial, capital and community transaction are playing a major
role in deciding the Investment, Inflation, Interest and Industries of the country which
directly influences the GDP of the economy(Thowseaf & Millath, 2017).
According to the report published in Investor India blog (InvestarIndia, 2017),
demonetization though can produce a surgical strike on the black money it would also carry
along with its impact on industrial growth and investment. The study made by the
(Dr.P.Chellasamy & Anu.K.M, 2017) concluded that demonetization had anegative impact
on economic activity and stocks of NSE. While the result disclosed by the (Chauhan &
Kaushik, 2017) indicated that on the comparison of both pre and post-event window it was
found that, there is no significant impact of demonetization on the stock market. The study
also found that this short period downfall in the stock prices, but it was mentioned it might be
due to some other factors. Henceforth, perplexing thoughts induced made to conduct a study
on demonetization effect on NSE and BSE. In order to make the study narrow, the study was
focusing only on Automobile sector.
GST
According to the report published in economic times the implementation of GST could result
in neutral or negative effect in stock prices, but over the time GST would pave way for
thebetterment of Industry and its investment(Oberoi, 2017).The study conducted and
published by (Shah, 2017) in livemint indicated that the GST have boosted NSE and BSE
performance to aconsiderable level within a short span and expected to progress linearly
overtime period.
The report published in money control by (Zerodha, 2017), the GST has to be further
scrutinized to bring forth investment in stocks, this because, he explains that GST has
increased transaction and service cost in thebank and financial sector. Herewith an investor
who was charged 15 Rs. As transaction and service cost for 100 Rs. Will be charged with 18
Rs. Which will ultimately demotivate the investor for investment.
Statement of Problem
Regardless of limited studies conducted to identify the impact demonetization and GST
separately, aresearcher couldn’t find any study combining both the events and identifying
which event significantly influenced the stock’s price of the companies in what way. Hence
an attempt is made to examine the extent of theimpact that demonetization and GST had on
Automobile sector share price and to identify among the two events which greatly
influencing stock price of the companies.
Objectives
 To analyze whether there is asignificant difference in stock price of automobile sector
pre & post demonetization.
 To analyze whether there is asignificant difference in stock price of automobile sector
pre & post GST.
 To detectthe extent of theimpact that, demonetization and GST had on thestock price
of automobile sector.
 To measure the life cycle of the automobile sector pre and post events.
Research Methodology
For the study Ex-Post facto and Analytical research design was adopted. The secondary data
was collected from Official NSE and BSE websites. A dataset of 80 (day wise data) was
ZENITH International Journal of Multidisciplinary Research _________ISSN 2231-5780
Vol.8 (11), November (2018), pp. 35-44
Online available at zenithresearch.org.in
37
considered, among which 40 were data belonging to pre-events i.e. demonetization & GST
and other 40 were data belonging to post-events. Descriptive, Paired sample t-test, Rate of
change and Sector life cycle analysis were carried out using Excel and SPSS applications.
Analysis & Interpretation
Descriptive Analysis - Demonetization
Descriptive analysis is carried out to identify the mean, median and standard deviation value
during Pre and Post demonetization.
Table-1: Descriptive Analysis - Demonetization
DEMONETIZATION
BSE-SENSEX-AUTO NSE-NIFTY-AUTO
Pre-Demonetization Post-Demonetization Pre-Demonetization Post-Demonetization
Date Closing Price Date Closing Price Date Closing Price Date Closing Price
08-Sep-16 23187.69 08-Nov-16 22254.58 11-Sep-17 10839.75 08-Nov-16 10079.7
09-Sep-16 22844.28 09-Nov-16 21692.85 12-Sep-17 10965.9 09-Nov-16 9819.8
12-Sep-16 22248.57 10-Nov-16 21539.36 13-Sep-17 10916 10-Nov-16 9758.15
14-Sep-16 22374.9 11-Nov-16 20562.68 14-Sep-17 10949 11-Nov-16 9308.3
15-Sep-16 22290.45 15-Nov-16 19520.27 15-Sep-17 10971.45 15-Nov-16 8828.6
16-Sep-16 22419.43 16-Nov-16 19711.34 18-Sep-17 11104.85 16-Nov-16 8918.65
19-Sep-16 22457.05 17-Nov-16 19698.47 19-Sep-17 11170.75 17-Nov-16 8915.6
20-Sep-16 22317.12 18-Nov-16 19859.37 20-Sep-17 11103.45 18-Nov-16 8983.85
21-Sep-16 22373.36 21-Nov-16 19214.67 21-Sep-17 11051.9 21-Nov-16 8681.6
22-Sep-16 22695.61 22-Nov-16 19577.05 22-Sep-17 10927.05 22-Nov-16 8852.9
23-Sep-16 22642.26 23-Nov-16 19650.34 25-Sep-17 10808.45 23-Nov-16 8891.15
26-Sep-16 22252.51 24-Nov-16 19386.37 26-Sep-17 10816 24-Nov-16 8754.5
27-Sep-16 22147.63 25-Nov-16 19424.86 27-Sep-17 10646.05 25-Nov-16 8780.4
28-Sep-16 22422 28-Nov-16 19515.11 28-Sep-17 10683.65 28-Nov-16 8826.65
29-Sep-16 21937.03 29-Nov-16 19944.99 29-Sep-17 10811.25 29-Nov-16 9017.95
30-Sep-16 22231.66 30-Nov-16 20144.62 03-Oct-17 10903.75 30-Nov-16 9113.8
03-Oct-16 22774.95 01-Dec-16 19967.1 04-Oct-17 10942.7 01-Dec-16 9041
04-Oct-16 22786.81 02-Dec-16 19645.38 05-Oct-17 10931.7 02-Dec-16 8888.7
05-Oct-16 22866.29 05-Dec-16 20022.28 06-Oct-17 11007 05-Dec-16 9046.25
06-Oct-16 22709.15 06-Dec-16 19946.31 09-Oct-17 11005.8 06-Dec-16 9014
07-Oct-16 22849.09 07-Dec-16 20030.92 10-Oct-17 11029.85 07-Dec-16 9053.25
10-Oct-16 22832.5 08-Dec-16 20558.48 11-Oct-17 10960.3 08-Dec-16 9299.05
13-Oct-16 22532.3 09-Dec-16 20463.71 12-Oct-17 11072.25 09-Dec-16 9252.3
14-Oct-16 22554.9 12-Dec-16 20109.97 13-Oct-17 11078.3 12-Dec-16 9092
17-Oct-16 22076.4 13-Dec-16 20306.41 16-Oct-17 11216.85 13-Dec-16 9196
18-Oct-16 22361.09 14-Dec-16 20208.52 17-Oct-17 11221.9 14-Dec-16 9146.05
19-Oct-16 22240.41 15-Dec-16 20144.5 18-Oct-17 11167.85 15-Dec-16 9118.25
20-Oct-16 22231.9 16-Dec-16 20235.31 19-Oct-17 11107.7 16-Dec-16 9153.5
21-Oct-16 22244.79 19-Dec-16 20115.35 23-Oct-17 11109.95 19-Dec-16 9098.05
24-Oct-16 22431.93 20-Dec-16 19946.6 24-Oct-17 11080 20-Dec-16 9023.05
25-Oct-16 22336.38 21-Dec-16 19954.68 25-Oct-17 11150.3 21-Dec-16 9013
26-Oct-16 22193.04 22-Dec-16 19831.16 26-Oct-17 11212.6 22-Dec-16 8961.3
27-Oct-16 21892.05 23-Dec-16 19885.7 27-Oct-17 11317.9 23-Dec-16 8987.25
28-Oct-16 22168.45 26-Dec-16 19595.3 30-Oct-17 11426.5 26-Dec-16 8854.75
30-Oct-16 22185.39 27-Dec-16 19897.89 31-Oct-17 11370 27-Dec-16 8991.8
01-Nov-16 22275.18 28-Dec-16 19912.58 01-Nov-17 11363.5 28-Dec-16 8981.15
02-Nov-16 22033.25 29-Dec-16 20179.4 02-Nov-17 11282.85 29-Dec-16 9109.05
03-Nov-16 21991.46 30-Dec-16 20257.43 03-Nov-17 11313.65 30-Dec-16 9141.75
04-Nov-16 21810.38 02-Jan-17 20651.73 06-Nov-17 11463.2 02-Jan-17 9326.9
07-Nov-16 21889.15 03-Jan-17 20612.09 07-Nov-17 11331.75 03-Jan-17 9300.3
Mean 22377.71975 Mean 20104.39325 Mean 11070.84125 Mean 9090.5075
Median 22326.75 Median 19960.89 Median 11075.275 Median 9032.025
Std.Dev. 314.9329579 Std.Dev. 610.4000309 Std.Dev. 198.4160844 Std.Dev. 279.6823859
ZENITH International Journal of Multidisciplinary Research _________ISSN 2231-5780
Vol.8 (11), November (2018), pp. 35-44
Online available at zenithresearch.org.in
38
There is a sharp decrease in mean value of the stock price post demonetization in NSE and
BSE. It is also noticed that standard deviation was comparatively greater during post
demonetization both in NSE and BSE.
Descriptive Analysis –GST
Descriptive analysis is carried out to identify the mean, median and standard deviation value
during Pre and Post GST.
Table-2: Descriptive Analysis - GST
GST
BSE-SENSEX-AUTO NSE-NIFTY-AUTO
Pre-GST Post-GST Pre-GST Post-GST
Date Closing Price Date Closing Price Date Closing Price Date Closing Price
30-Jan-17 22006.47 29-Mar-17 21921.77 30-Jan-17 9928.65 29-Mar-17 9845.75
31-Jan-17 21809.24 30-Mar-17 21963.98 31-Jan-17 9837.75 30-Mar-17 9860.3
01-Feb-17 22563.21 31-Mar-17 22012.66 01-Feb-17 10191.95 31-Mar-17 9880.2
02-Feb-17 22322.07 03-Apr-17 22099.84 02-Feb-17 10058.8 03-Apr-17 9921.1
03-Feb-17 22147.15 05-Apr-17 22341.61 03-Feb-17 9975.1 05-Apr-17 10033.55
06-Feb-17 22288.07 06-Apr-17 22322.62 06-Feb-17 10031.1 06-Apr-17 10035.3
07-Feb-17 22080.1 07-Apr-17 22235.34 07-Feb-17 9931.7 07-Apr-17 9993.75
08-Feb-17 22230.98 10-Apr-17 22307.27 08-Feb-17 9994.25 10-Apr-17 10030.5
09-Feb-17 22299.1 11-Apr-17 22326.02 09-Feb-17 10028.05 11-Apr-17 10040.05
10-Feb-17 22194.95 12-Apr-17 22224.97 10-Feb-17 9987.3 12-Apr-17 9987.15
13-Feb-17 22162.31 13-Apr-17 22053.66 13-Feb-17 9973.3 13-Apr-17 9907.4
14-Feb-17 21919.81 17-Apr-17 21991.36 14-Feb-17 9820.6 17-Apr-17 9889.45
15-Feb-17 21254.69 18-Apr-17 21826.91 15-Feb-17 9523.35 18-Apr-17 9813.7
16-Feb-17 21596.03 19-Apr-17 21858.26 16-Feb-17 9686.35 19-Apr-17 9831.35
17-Feb-17 21582.11 20-Apr-17 22010.97 17-Feb-17 9683.6 20-Apr-17 9909.9
20-Feb-17 21722.12 21-Apr-17 21919.72 20-Feb-17 9743.95 21-Apr-17 9858.8
21-Feb-17 21779.75 24-Apr-17 22180.32 21-Feb-17 9758.9 24-Apr-17 9978.2
22-Feb-17 21767.85 25-Apr-17 22435.44 22-Feb-17 9768.45 25-Apr-17 10090.35
23-Feb-17 21753.86 26-Apr-17 22662.35 23-Feb-17 9761.75 26-Apr-17 10189.7
27-Feb-17 21538.46 27-Apr-17 22634.44 27-Feb-17 9666.85 27-Apr-17 10173.1
28-Feb-17 21486.06 28-Apr-17 22782.4 28-Feb-17 9654.65 28-Apr-17 10255.15
01-Mar-17 21546.27 02-May-17 22903.84 01-Mar-17 9670.6 02-May-17 10294.75
02-Mar-17 21607.62 03-May-17 22896.38 02-Mar-17 9705.5 03-May-17 10273
03-Mar-17 21557.77 04-May-17 22769.49 03-Mar-17 9680.5 04-May-17 10211.8
06-Mar-17 21824.29 05-May-17 22510.64 06-Mar-17 9800 05-May-17 10107.95
07-Mar-17 21714.56 08-May-17 22666.23 07-Mar-17 9753.55 08-May-17 10167.05
08-Mar-17 21610.67 09-May-17 22660.15 08-Mar-17 9701.25 09-May-17 10157.8
09-Mar-17 21732.38 10-May-17 22993.54 09-Mar-17 9754.35 10-May-17 10303.9
10-Mar-17 21790.97 11-May-17 23218.58 10-Mar-17 9779.25 11-May-17 10410.75
14-Mar-17 22064.65 12-May-17 23245.43 14-Mar-17 9910.4 12-May-17 10429.2
15-Mar-17 22221.03 15-May-17 23367.07 15-Mar-17 9987.65 15-May-17 10481.3
16-Mar-17 22360.15 16-May-17 23616.15 16-Mar-17 10056.5 16-May-17 10597.45
17-Mar-17 22258.02 17-May-17 23751.55 17-Mar-17 10009.4 17-May-17 10669.7
20-Mar-17 22276.01 18-May-17 23280.14 20-Mar-17 10009.3 18-May-17 10436.35
21-Mar-17 22180.82 19-May-17 23141.63 21-Mar-17 9963.75 19-May-17 10409.8
22-Mar-17 21830.13 22-May-17 22963.99 22-Mar-17 9803.95 22-May-17 10339.95
23-Mar-17 22014.57 23-May-17 23061.74 23-Mar-17 9897.95 23-May-17 10380.65
24-Mar-17 22005.94 24-May-17 23076.71 24-Mar-17 9878.35 24-May-17 10386.3
27-Mar-17 21860.41 25-May-17 23496.87 27-Mar-17 9808.2 25-May-17 10588.1
28-Mar-17 22029.58 26-May-17 23810.72 28-Mar-17 9887.8 26-May-17 10711.55
Mean 21924.75575 Mean 22638.57 Mean 9851.61625 Mean 10172.05
Median 21890.11 Median 22647.30 Median 9829.175 Median 10162.43
Std.Dev. 299.9364966 Std.Dev. 567.75 Std.Dev. 147.0574144 Std.Dev. 253.69
ZENITH International Journal of Multidisciplinary Research _________ISSN 2231-5780
Vol.8 (11), November (2018), pp. 35-44
Online available at zenithresearch.org.in
39
There is a sharp increase in themean value of the stock price post GST in NSE and BSE. It is
also noticed that standard deviation was comparatively greater during post GST both in NSE
and BSE.
Paired Sample T-Test - Demonetization
Paired Sample T-test is carried out to test whether there is asignificant difference in themean
value of the stock price in NSE and BSE during pre and post demonetization at 95%
confidence interval.
Table-3: Paired Sample T-Test - Demonetization
Paired Samples Statistics
Mean N Std. Deviation Std. Error Mean
Pair 1 NSE-Pre-Demonetization 11070.8413 40 198.41608 31.37234
NSE-Post-Demonetization 9090.5075 40 279.68239 44.22167
Pair 2 BSE-Pre-Demonetization 22377.7198 40 314.93296 49.79527
BSE-Post-Demonetization 20104.3933 40 610.40003 96.51272
Paired Samples Correlations
N Correlation Sig.
Pair 1 NSE-Pre-Demonetization & NSE-Post-Demonetization 40 .005 .976
Pair 2 BSE-Pre-Demonetization & BSE-Post-Demonetization 40 .240 .137
Paired Samples Test
Paired Differences t df Sig.
(2-
tailed)
Mean Std.
Deviation
Std. Error
Mean
95% Confidence Interval
of the Difference
Lower Upper
Pair
1
NSE-Pre-
Demonetization -
NSE-Post-
Demonetization
1980.33375 342.10765 54.09197 1870.92242 2089.74508 36.610 39 .000
Pair
2
BSE-Pre-
Demonetization -
BSE-Post-
Demonetization
2273.32650 616.18880 97.42800 2076.25976 2470.39324 23.333 39 .000
The significance value obtained is .000 for both pair of samples i.e. NSE & BSE stock price
during Pre and Post demonetization. Since the value is less than .05, the null hypothesis is
ZENITH International Journal of Multidisciplinary Research _________ISSN 2231-5780
Vol.8 (11), November (2018), pp. 35-44
Online available at zenithresearch.org.in
40
rejected, which means there is asignificant difference in themean value of stock price pre and
post demonetization in NSE and BSE.
Paired Sample T-Test - GST
Paired Sample T-test is carried out to test whether there is asignificant difference in themean
value of the stock price in NSE and BSE during pre and post GST considering 95%
confidence interval.
Table-4: Paired Sample T-Test - GST
Paired Samples Statistics
Mean N Std. Deviation Std. Error Mean
Pair
1
NSE-Pre-GST 9851.6163 40 147.05741 23.25182
NSE-Post-GST 10172.0525 40 253.68562 40.11122
Pair
2
BSE-Pre-GST 21924.7558 40 299.93650 47.42412
BSE-Post-GST 22638.5690 40 567.75332 89.76968
Paired Samples Correlations
N Correlation Sig.
Pair 1 NSE-Pre-GST & NSE-Post-GST 40 .117 .472
Pair 2 BSE-Pre-GST & BSE-Post-GST 40 .162 .318
Paired Samples Test
Paired Differences t df Sig. (2-
tailed)Mean Std.
Deviation
Std. Error
Mean
95% Confidence Interval of
the Difference
Lower Upper
Pair
1
NSE-Pre-
GST -
NSE-Post-
GST
-320.4362 277.92817 43.94430 -409.3219 -231.55051 -7.29 39 .000
Pair
2
BSE-Pre-
GST -
BSE-Post-
GST
-713.8132 597.59388 94.48789 -904.9330 -522.69346 -7.55 39 .000
The significance value obtained is .000 for both pair of samples i.e. NSE & BSE stock price
during Pre and Post GST. Since the value is less than .05, the null hypothesis is rejected,
ZENITH International Journal of Multidisciplinary Research _________ISSN 2231-5780
Vol.8 (11), November (2018), pp. 35-44
Online available at zenithresearch.org.in
41
which means there is asignificant difference in themean value of stock price pre and post
GST in NSE and BSE.
Automobile Sector Lifecycle
Sector life indicates whether the particular industrial sector is in growth stage or declining
stage. When the calculated value is less than 0.5 than the industrial sector is said to be in
declining phase else it is in thegrowth stage.
Sector or Company or product lifecycle formula: SLC =
∆
Where;
 ∆ –[Current stock price –Base stock price]
 –Standard Deviation
Table-5: SLC –Demonetization & GST
Sector Life Cycle - Demonetization
S. No. NSE / BSE Period SLC Value Life Cycle
1
BSE
Pre- Demonetization -4.12322676 Declining
2 Post-Demonetization -2.69084193 Declining
3
NSE
Pre- Demonetization 2.479637684 Growth
4 Post- Demonetization -2.78673252 Declining
Sector Life Cycle - GST
S. No. NSE / BSE Period SLC Value Life Cycle
1
BSE
Pre- GST 0.077049643 Declining
2 Post- GST 3.33 Growth
3
NSE
Pre- GST -0.27778266 Declining
4 Post- GST 3.41 Growth
The calculated SLC value considering demonetization period indicated that there was further
declining SLC value Post demonetization in NSE and BSE. On controversy, the SLC value
during GST indicated anincrease in NSE and BSE. Hence it can be concluded that
ZENITH International Journal of Multidisciplinary Research _________ISSN 2231-5780
Vol.8 (11), November (2018), pp. 35-44
Online available at zenithresearch.org.in
42
demonetization had anegative impact on automobile sector while GST had apositive impact
on automobile sector.
Rate of Change
The rate of Change calculation is carried out estimate the variation of the stock price in
percentage.
ROC = × 100
Table 6: Rate of Change [ROC]
S. No. NSE / BSE Period ROC
1 BSE Demonetization -10.1588836
2 NSE Demonetization -17.8878344
3 BSE GST 3.26
4 NSE GST 3.25
The Rate of Change value thus estimated further confirms SLC i.e. demonetization had
anegative impact and GST had apositive impact on automobile stock price in NSE and BSE.
Conclusion
From the analysis made on data obtained from official NSE and BSE websites, it calculated
that the mean value stock price before demonetization was 22377.71975 had dropped to
20104.39325 after demonetization for BSE. Similarly, for NSE the mean value of stock price
before demonetization was 11070.84125 got dropped to 9090.5075. Also, the Standard
Deviation of stock price after demonetization was estimated (610.4000309 – BSE;
279.6823859 - NSE) to be high than thepre-demonetization period(314.9329579 – BSE;
198.4160844 - NSE). Drop in mean value when put into paired sample it was confirmed that
there is asignificant difference in the stock price value pre and post demonetization period.
The determined value through SLC (-2.69084193 –BSE; -2.78673252 –NSE)and ROC (-
10.1588836 –BSE; -17.8878344 –NSE) projected the automobile industry stock price has
declined by 10.16% in BSE and 17.89% in NSE. From the analysis made on data obtained
mean value stock price before GST was 21924.75575had raised to 22638.57after GST for
BSE. Similarly, for NSE the mean value of stock price before GST was 9851.61625got raised
to 10172.05. Also, the Standard Deviation of stock price after GST was estimated (567.75–
BSE; 253.69- NSE) to be high than thepre-GST period(299.9364966–BSE; 147.0574144-
NSE). Increase in mean value when put into paired sample it was confirmed that there is
asignificant difference in the stock price value pre and post GST period. The determined
value through SLC (3.33 –BSE; 3.41 –NSE)and ROC (3.26 –BSE; 3.25 –NSE) projected
ZENITH International Journal of Multidisciplinary Research _________ISSN 2231-5780
Vol.8 (11), November (2018), pp. 35-44
Online available at zenithresearch.org.in
43
the automobile industry stock price has inclined by 3.26% in BSE and 3.25% in NSE. Hence
it can be concluded that demonetization had anegative impact on stock price of the
Automobile sector while GST had apositive impact.
Appendix
i. References
bankbazaar. (2017). Retrieved from www.bankbazaar.com:
https://www.bankbazaar.com/tax.html
BSE. (2017, Dec). Retrieved from www.bseindia.com:
http://www.bseindia.com/indices/IndexArchiveData.aspx
Chauhan, S., & Kaushik, N. (2017). Impact Of Demonetization On Stock Market:Event
Study Methodology. Indian Journal of Accounting, Vol. XLIX (1); pp: 127-132.
Dr.P.Chellasamy, & Anu.K.M. (2017). Impact of Demonetisation on Indian Stock Market:
With Special Reference to Sectoral Indices in National Stock Exchange of India.
IOSR - Journal of Economics and Finance, Vol- 8; Issu-e I; PP: 51-54.
InvestarIndia. (2017, Nov 30). Retrieved from www.investarindia.com:
http://www.investarindia.com/blog/effect-demonetization-indian-stock-market/
NSE. (2017, Dec). Retrieved from www.nseindia.com:
https://www.nseindia.com/products/content/equities/indices/historical_index_data.ht
m
Oberoi, R. (2017, Jun 28). Retrieved from https://economictimes.indiatimes.com:
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/stocks/news/how-painful-will-be-gst-
for-stock-market-not-as-much-as-vat-was/articleshow/59348446.cms
Shah, A. (2017, Jul 03). Retrieved from www.livemint.com:
http://www.livemint.com/Money/HO4OVPL2r4k7ahcCtE6xpJ/Market-Live-Sensex-
Nifty-jump-in-opening-trade-ITC-shares.html
Thowseaf, S., & Millath, M. A. (2017). Delineationon Demonetization Impact on Indian
Economy. International Journal of Innovative Knowledge Concepts, Vol. 5; Issue 7;
PP: 37-40.
ZENITH International Journal of Multidisciplinary Research _________ISSN 2231-5780
Vol.8 (11), November (2018), pp. 35-44
Online available at zenithresearch.org.in
44
Zerodha, N. K. (2017, Jul 01). Retrieved from www.moneycontrol.com:
http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/markets/how-will-gst-impact-retail-
investors-and-investment-in-stocks-or-mfs-2316255.html
ii. Secondary Data
GST
BSE-SENSEX-AUTO NSE-NIFTY-AUTO
Pre-GST Post-GST Pre-GST Post-GST
Date Closing Price Date Closing Price Date Closing Price Date Closing Price
30-Jan-17 22006.47 29-Mar-17 21921.77 30-Jan-17 9928.65 29-Mar-17 9845.75
31-Jan-17 21809.24 30-Mar-17 21963.98 31-Jan-17 9837.75 30-Mar-17 9860.3
01-Feb-17 22563.21 31-Mar-17 22012.66 01-Feb-17 10191.95 31-Mar-17 9880.2
02-Feb-17 22322.07 03-Apr-17 22099.84 02-Feb-17 10058.8 03-Apr-17 9921.1
03-Feb-17 22147.15 05-Apr-17 22341.61 03-Feb-17 9975.1 05-Apr-17 10033.55
06-Feb-17 22288.07 06-Apr-17 22322.62 06-Feb-17 10031.1 06-Apr-17 10035.3
07-Feb-17 22080.1 07-Apr-17 22235.34 07-Feb-17 9931.7 07-Apr-17 9993.75
08-Feb-17 22230.98 10-Apr-17 22307.27 08-Feb-17 9994.25 10-Apr-17 10030.5
09-Feb-17 22299.1 11-Apr-17 22326.02 09-Feb-17 10028.05 11-Apr-17 10040.05
10-Feb-17 22194.95 12-Apr-17 22224.97 10-Feb-17 9987.3 12-Apr-17 9987.15
13-Feb-17 22162.31 13-Apr-17 22053.66 13-Feb-17 9973.3 13-Apr-17 9907.4
14-Feb-17 21919.81 17-Apr-17 21991.36 14-Feb-17 9820.6 17-Apr-17 9889.45
15-Feb-17 21254.69 18-Apr-17 21826.91 15-Feb-17 9523.35 18-Apr-17 9813.7
16-Feb-17 21596.03 19-Apr-17 21858.26 16-Feb-17 9686.35 19-Apr-17 9831.35
17-Feb-17 21582.11 20-Apr-17 22010.97 17-Feb-17 9683.6 20-Apr-17 9909.9
20-Feb-17 21722.12 21-Apr-17 21919.72 20-Feb-17 9743.95 21-Apr-17 9858.8
21-Feb-17 21779.75 24-Apr-17 22180.32 21-Feb-17 9758.9 24-Apr-17 9978.2
22-Feb-17 21767.85 25-Apr-17 22435.44 22-Feb-17 9768.45 25-Apr-17 10090.35
23-Feb-17 21753.86 26-Apr-17 22662.35 23-Feb-17 9761.75 26-Apr-17 10189.7
27-Feb-17 21538.46 27-Apr-17 22634.44 27-Feb-17 9666.85 27-Apr-17 10173.1
28-Feb-17 21486.06 28-Apr-17 22782.4 28-Feb-17 9654.65 28-Apr-17 10255.15
01-Mar-17 21546.27 02-May-17 22903.84 01-Mar-17 9670.6 02-May-17 10294.75
02-Mar-17 21607.62 03-May-17 22896.38 02-Mar-17 9705.5 03-May-17 10273
03-Mar-17 21557.77 04-May-17 22769.49 03-Mar-17 9680.5 04-May-17 10211.8
06-Mar-17 21824.29 05-May-17 22510.64 06-Mar-17 9800 05-May-17 10107.95
07-Mar-17 21714.56 08-May-17 22666.23 07-Mar-17 9753.55 08-May-17 10167.05
08-Mar-17 21610.67 09-May-17 22660.15 08-Mar-17 9701.25 09-May-17 10157.8
09-Mar-17 21732.38 10-May-17 22993.54 09-Mar-17 9754.35 10-May-17 10303.9
10-Mar-17 21790.97 11-May-17 23218.58 10-Mar-17 9779.25 11-May-17 10410.75
14-Mar-17 22064.65 12-May-17 23245.43 14-Mar-17 9910.4 12-May-17 10429.2
15-Mar-17 22221.03 15-May-17 23367.07 15-Mar-17 9987.65 15-May-17 10481.3
16-Mar-17 22360.15 16-May-17 23616.15 16-Mar-17 10056.5 16-May-17 10597.45
17-Mar-17 22258.02 17-May-17 23751.55 17-Mar-17 10009.4 17-May-17 10669.7
20-Mar-17 22276.01 18-May-17 23280.14 20-Mar-17 10009.3 18-May-17 10436.35
21-Mar-17 22180.82 19-May-17 23141.63 21-Mar-17 9963.75 19-May-17 10409.8
22-Mar-17 21830.13 22-May-17 22963.99 22-Mar-17 9803.95 22-May-17 10339.95
23-Mar-17 22014.57 23-May-17 23061.74 23-Mar-17 9897.95 23-May-17 10380.65
24-Mar-17 22005.94 24-May-17 23076.71 24-Mar-17 9878.35 24-May-17 10386.3
27-Mar-17 21860.41 25-May-17 23496.87 27-Mar-17 9808.2 25-May-17 10588.1
28-Mar-17 22029.58 26-May-17 23810.72 28-Mar-17 9887.8 26-May-17 10711.55
Source: (NSE, 2017)&(BSE, 2017)

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Impact of Demonetization and GST on Stock Price of Automobile Sector

  • 1. ZENITH International Journal of Multidisciplinary Research _________ISSN 2231-5780 Vol.8 (11), November (2018), pp. 35-44 Online available at zenithresearch.org.in 35 IMPACT OF DEMONETIZATION AND G.S.T. ON STOCK PRICE OF AUTOMOBILE SECTOR R. RAJESH KARTHIK*, S. THOWSEAF**, DR. M. AYISHA MILLATH***, ALAGAPPA INSTITUTE OF MANAGEMENT, ALAGAPPA UNIVERSITY, KARAIKUDI . Email ID –thowseaf786@gmail.com, ayishamillath05@gmail.com. ABSTRACT The study is an attempt to identify the aftermath effect of Demonetization and GST on thestock price of Automobile sector in NSE (National Stock Exchange) and BSE (Bombay Stock Exchange). Ex- Post facto and Analytical research design is applied to the study. Historical data was obtained from official NSE and BSE websites. A dataset containing 80 historical data among which 40 were data before theevent and 40 post-event i.e. Demonetization and GST (Goods and Services Tax). From the analysis made, it was found that there is asignificant difference in stock price in NSE and BSE Automobile sector Pre and Post events i.e. demonetization and GST. The result indicated that the demonetization had anegative impact on NSE and BSE stock price, while GST had apositive impact on NSE and BSE stock price. Furthermore, it is estimated that 17.89% fall in stock price of NSE & 10.16% fall in stock price of BSEduring demonetization and 3.25% hike in thestock price of NSE and 3.26% hike in thestock price of BSE during GST. KEYWORD: Impact: Demonetization on AUTO Sensex, Demonetization on AUTO Nifty; Impact: GST on AUTO Sensex, GST on AUTO Nifty. Introduction Two recent major economic reform that India had gone through this decade is demonetization and GST. Demonetization is aprocess of prohibiting particular home currency for thetransaction and replacing it with new currency or currencies. Demonetization, in general, is made with an objective to reduce - fake currencies, hoarding of unaccounted currencies, terrorism funding, and black money. While GST, is taxation system, France was first to introduce GST in 1954. GST in India was first proposed during the year 2000 by former Prime Minister Vajpayee, later it was during 2017 it got implemented. Unlike any other countries India has more indirect taxes whose list is greater than 24, thereby to reduce complexity GST was introduced to increase legal transactions in India. GST is simply unification of all indirect taxes i.e. Sales Tax, Service Tax, Value Added Tax, Custom Duty & Octroi, Excise Duty, Professional Tax, Property Tax, Entertainment Tax, Education Cess, Gift Tax, Toll Tax & Road Tax, Swachh Bharat Cess, Infrastructure Cess, Entry Tax and even so on (bankbazaar, 2017). Despite, above mentioned economic reforms, it is aninvestmentin various industrial sector help betterment of theindustry, in turn, making aneconomic contribution. Also, there being a question that, economic reforms impacting industrial operations one end, will it impact investment decision too. Thereby, this study is conducted to investigate the impact the demonetization and GST had on Automobile industrial sector of NSE and BSE. Literature Review Demonetization Demonetization made in India had removed 86% of currency circulations, which had led to an extreme contraction of money supply within the economy. This contraction, in turn, is
  • 2. ZENITH International Journal of Multidisciplinary Research _________ISSN 2231-5780 Vol.8 (11), November (2018), pp. 35-44 Online available at zenithresearch.org.in 36 created a cash imbalance by eliminating many commercial and public transactions for the confined period. It is this commercial, capital and community transaction are playing a major role in deciding the Investment, Inflation, Interest and Industries of the country which directly influences the GDP of the economy(Thowseaf & Millath, 2017). According to the report published in Investor India blog (InvestarIndia, 2017), demonetization though can produce a surgical strike on the black money it would also carry along with its impact on industrial growth and investment. The study made by the (Dr.P.Chellasamy & Anu.K.M, 2017) concluded that demonetization had anegative impact on economic activity and stocks of NSE. While the result disclosed by the (Chauhan & Kaushik, 2017) indicated that on the comparison of both pre and post-event window it was found that, there is no significant impact of demonetization on the stock market. The study also found that this short period downfall in the stock prices, but it was mentioned it might be due to some other factors. Henceforth, perplexing thoughts induced made to conduct a study on demonetization effect on NSE and BSE. In order to make the study narrow, the study was focusing only on Automobile sector. GST According to the report published in economic times the implementation of GST could result in neutral or negative effect in stock prices, but over the time GST would pave way for thebetterment of Industry and its investment(Oberoi, 2017).The study conducted and published by (Shah, 2017) in livemint indicated that the GST have boosted NSE and BSE performance to aconsiderable level within a short span and expected to progress linearly overtime period. The report published in money control by (Zerodha, 2017), the GST has to be further scrutinized to bring forth investment in stocks, this because, he explains that GST has increased transaction and service cost in thebank and financial sector. Herewith an investor who was charged 15 Rs. As transaction and service cost for 100 Rs. Will be charged with 18 Rs. Which will ultimately demotivate the investor for investment. Statement of Problem Regardless of limited studies conducted to identify the impact demonetization and GST separately, aresearcher couldn’t find any study combining both the events and identifying which event significantly influenced the stock’s price of the companies in what way. Hence an attempt is made to examine the extent of theimpact that demonetization and GST had on Automobile sector share price and to identify among the two events which greatly influencing stock price of the companies. Objectives  To analyze whether there is asignificant difference in stock price of automobile sector pre & post demonetization.  To analyze whether there is asignificant difference in stock price of automobile sector pre & post GST.  To detectthe extent of theimpact that, demonetization and GST had on thestock price of automobile sector.  To measure the life cycle of the automobile sector pre and post events. Research Methodology For the study Ex-Post facto and Analytical research design was adopted. The secondary data was collected from Official NSE and BSE websites. A dataset of 80 (day wise data) was
  • 3. ZENITH International Journal of Multidisciplinary Research _________ISSN 2231-5780 Vol.8 (11), November (2018), pp. 35-44 Online available at zenithresearch.org.in 37 considered, among which 40 were data belonging to pre-events i.e. demonetization & GST and other 40 were data belonging to post-events. Descriptive, Paired sample t-test, Rate of change and Sector life cycle analysis were carried out using Excel and SPSS applications. Analysis & Interpretation Descriptive Analysis - Demonetization Descriptive analysis is carried out to identify the mean, median and standard deviation value during Pre and Post demonetization. Table-1: Descriptive Analysis - Demonetization DEMONETIZATION BSE-SENSEX-AUTO NSE-NIFTY-AUTO Pre-Demonetization Post-Demonetization Pre-Demonetization Post-Demonetization Date Closing Price Date Closing Price Date Closing Price Date Closing Price 08-Sep-16 23187.69 08-Nov-16 22254.58 11-Sep-17 10839.75 08-Nov-16 10079.7 09-Sep-16 22844.28 09-Nov-16 21692.85 12-Sep-17 10965.9 09-Nov-16 9819.8 12-Sep-16 22248.57 10-Nov-16 21539.36 13-Sep-17 10916 10-Nov-16 9758.15 14-Sep-16 22374.9 11-Nov-16 20562.68 14-Sep-17 10949 11-Nov-16 9308.3 15-Sep-16 22290.45 15-Nov-16 19520.27 15-Sep-17 10971.45 15-Nov-16 8828.6 16-Sep-16 22419.43 16-Nov-16 19711.34 18-Sep-17 11104.85 16-Nov-16 8918.65 19-Sep-16 22457.05 17-Nov-16 19698.47 19-Sep-17 11170.75 17-Nov-16 8915.6 20-Sep-16 22317.12 18-Nov-16 19859.37 20-Sep-17 11103.45 18-Nov-16 8983.85 21-Sep-16 22373.36 21-Nov-16 19214.67 21-Sep-17 11051.9 21-Nov-16 8681.6 22-Sep-16 22695.61 22-Nov-16 19577.05 22-Sep-17 10927.05 22-Nov-16 8852.9 23-Sep-16 22642.26 23-Nov-16 19650.34 25-Sep-17 10808.45 23-Nov-16 8891.15 26-Sep-16 22252.51 24-Nov-16 19386.37 26-Sep-17 10816 24-Nov-16 8754.5 27-Sep-16 22147.63 25-Nov-16 19424.86 27-Sep-17 10646.05 25-Nov-16 8780.4 28-Sep-16 22422 28-Nov-16 19515.11 28-Sep-17 10683.65 28-Nov-16 8826.65 29-Sep-16 21937.03 29-Nov-16 19944.99 29-Sep-17 10811.25 29-Nov-16 9017.95 30-Sep-16 22231.66 30-Nov-16 20144.62 03-Oct-17 10903.75 30-Nov-16 9113.8 03-Oct-16 22774.95 01-Dec-16 19967.1 04-Oct-17 10942.7 01-Dec-16 9041 04-Oct-16 22786.81 02-Dec-16 19645.38 05-Oct-17 10931.7 02-Dec-16 8888.7 05-Oct-16 22866.29 05-Dec-16 20022.28 06-Oct-17 11007 05-Dec-16 9046.25 06-Oct-16 22709.15 06-Dec-16 19946.31 09-Oct-17 11005.8 06-Dec-16 9014 07-Oct-16 22849.09 07-Dec-16 20030.92 10-Oct-17 11029.85 07-Dec-16 9053.25 10-Oct-16 22832.5 08-Dec-16 20558.48 11-Oct-17 10960.3 08-Dec-16 9299.05 13-Oct-16 22532.3 09-Dec-16 20463.71 12-Oct-17 11072.25 09-Dec-16 9252.3 14-Oct-16 22554.9 12-Dec-16 20109.97 13-Oct-17 11078.3 12-Dec-16 9092 17-Oct-16 22076.4 13-Dec-16 20306.41 16-Oct-17 11216.85 13-Dec-16 9196 18-Oct-16 22361.09 14-Dec-16 20208.52 17-Oct-17 11221.9 14-Dec-16 9146.05 19-Oct-16 22240.41 15-Dec-16 20144.5 18-Oct-17 11167.85 15-Dec-16 9118.25 20-Oct-16 22231.9 16-Dec-16 20235.31 19-Oct-17 11107.7 16-Dec-16 9153.5 21-Oct-16 22244.79 19-Dec-16 20115.35 23-Oct-17 11109.95 19-Dec-16 9098.05 24-Oct-16 22431.93 20-Dec-16 19946.6 24-Oct-17 11080 20-Dec-16 9023.05 25-Oct-16 22336.38 21-Dec-16 19954.68 25-Oct-17 11150.3 21-Dec-16 9013 26-Oct-16 22193.04 22-Dec-16 19831.16 26-Oct-17 11212.6 22-Dec-16 8961.3 27-Oct-16 21892.05 23-Dec-16 19885.7 27-Oct-17 11317.9 23-Dec-16 8987.25 28-Oct-16 22168.45 26-Dec-16 19595.3 30-Oct-17 11426.5 26-Dec-16 8854.75 30-Oct-16 22185.39 27-Dec-16 19897.89 31-Oct-17 11370 27-Dec-16 8991.8 01-Nov-16 22275.18 28-Dec-16 19912.58 01-Nov-17 11363.5 28-Dec-16 8981.15 02-Nov-16 22033.25 29-Dec-16 20179.4 02-Nov-17 11282.85 29-Dec-16 9109.05 03-Nov-16 21991.46 30-Dec-16 20257.43 03-Nov-17 11313.65 30-Dec-16 9141.75 04-Nov-16 21810.38 02-Jan-17 20651.73 06-Nov-17 11463.2 02-Jan-17 9326.9 07-Nov-16 21889.15 03-Jan-17 20612.09 07-Nov-17 11331.75 03-Jan-17 9300.3 Mean 22377.71975 Mean 20104.39325 Mean 11070.84125 Mean 9090.5075 Median 22326.75 Median 19960.89 Median 11075.275 Median 9032.025 Std.Dev. 314.9329579 Std.Dev. 610.4000309 Std.Dev. 198.4160844 Std.Dev. 279.6823859
  • 4. ZENITH International Journal of Multidisciplinary Research _________ISSN 2231-5780 Vol.8 (11), November (2018), pp. 35-44 Online available at zenithresearch.org.in 38 There is a sharp decrease in mean value of the stock price post demonetization in NSE and BSE. It is also noticed that standard deviation was comparatively greater during post demonetization both in NSE and BSE. Descriptive Analysis –GST Descriptive analysis is carried out to identify the mean, median and standard deviation value during Pre and Post GST. Table-2: Descriptive Analysis - GST GST BSE-SENSEX-AUTO NSE-NIFTY-AUTO Pre-GST Post-GST Pre-GST Post-GST Date Closing Price Date Closing Price Date Closing Price Date Closing Price 30-Jan-17 22006.47 29-Mar-17 21921.77 30-Jan-17 9928.65 29-Mar-17 9845.75 31-Jan-17 21809.24 30-Mar-17 21963.98 31-Jan-17 9837.75 30-Mar-17 9860.3 01-Feb-17 22563.21 31-Mar-17 22012.66 01-Feb-17 10191.95 31-Mar-17 9880.2 02-Feb-17 22322.07 03-Apr-17 22099.84 02-Feb-17 10058.8 03-Apr-17 9921.1 03-Feb-17 22147.15 05-Apr-17 22341.61 03-Feb-17 9975.1 05-Apr-17 10033.55 06-Feb-17 22288.07 06-Apr-17 22322.62 06-Feb-17 10031.1 06-Apr-17 10035.3 07-Feb-17 22080.1 07-Apr-17 22235.34 07-Feb-17 9931.7 07-Apr-17 9993.75 08-Feb-17 22230.98 10-Apr-17 22307.27 08-Feb-17 9994.25 10-Apr-17 10030.5 09-Feb-17 22299.1 11-Apr-17 22326.02 09-Feb-17 10028.05 11-Apr-17 10040.05 10-Feb-17 22194.95 12-Apr-17 22224.97 10-Feb-17 9987.3 12-Apr-17 9987.15 13-Feb-17 22162.31 13-Apr-17 22053.66 13-Feb-17 9973.3 13-Apr-17 9907.4 14-Feb-17 21919.81 17-Apr-17 21991.36 14-Feb-17 9820.6 17-Apr-17 9889.45 15-Feb-17 21254.69 18-Apr-17 21826.91 15-Feb-17 9523.35 18-Apr-17 9813.7 16-Feb-17 21596.03 19-Apr-17 21858.26 16-Feb-17 9686.35 19-Apr-17 9831.35 17-Feb-17 21582.11 20-Apr-17 22010.97 17-Feb-17 9683.6 20-Apr-17 9909.9 20-Feb-17 21722.12 21-Apr-17 21919.72 20-Feb-17 9743.95 21-Apr-17 9858.8 21-Feb-17 21779.75 24-Apr-17 22180.32 21-Feb-17 9758.9 24-Apr-17 9978.2 22-Feb-17 21767.85 25-Apr-17 22435.44 22-Feb-17 9768.45 25-Apr-17 10090.35 23-Feb-17 21753.86 26-Apr-17 22662.35 23-Feb-17 9761.75 26-Apr-17 10189.7 27-Feb-17 21538.46 27-Apr-17 22634.44 27-Feb-17 9666.85 27-Apr-17 10173.1 28-Feb-17 21486.06 28-Apr-17 22782.4 28-Feb-17 9654.65 28-Apr-17 10255.15 01-Mar-17 21546.27 02-May-17 22903.84 01-Mar-17 9670.6 02-May-17 10294.75 02-Mar-17 21607.62 03-May-17 22896.38 02-Mar-17 9705.5 03-May-17 10273 03-Mar-17 21557.77 04-May-17 22769.49 03-Mar-17 9680.5 04-May-17 10211.8 06-Mar-17 21824.29 05-May-17 22510.64 06-Mar-17 9800 05-May-17 10107.95 07-Mar-17 21714.56 08-May-17 22666.23 07-Mar-17 9753.55 08-May-17 10167.05 08-Mar-17 21610.67 09-May-17 22660.15 08-Mar-17 9701.25 09-May-17 10157.8 09-Mar-17 21732.38 10-May-17 22993.54 09-Mar-17 9754.35 10-May-17 10303.9 10-Mar-17 21790.97 11-May-17 23218.58 10-Mar-17 9779.25 11-May-17 10410.75 14-Mar-17 22064.65 12-May-17 23245.43 14-Mar-17 9910.4 12-May-17 10429.2 15-Mar-17 22221.03 15-May-17 23367.07 15-Mar-17 9987.65 15-May-17 10481.3 16-Mar-17 22360.15 16-May-17 23616.15 16-Mar-17 10056.5 16-May-17 10597.45 17-Mar-17 22258.02 17-May-17 23751.55 17-Mar-17 10009.4 17-May-17 10669.7 20-Mar-17 22276.01 18-May-17 23280.14 20-Mar-17 10009.3 18-May-17 10436.35 21-Mar-17 22180.82 19-May-17 23141.63 21-Mar-17 9963.75 19-May-17 10409.8 22-Mar-17 21830.13 22-May-17 22963.99 22-Mar-17 9803.95 22-May-17 10339.95 23-Mar-17 22014.57 23-May-17 23061.74 23-Mar-17 9897.95 23-May-17 10380.65 24-Mar-17 22005.94 24-May-17 23076.71 24-Mar-17 9878.35 24-May-17 10386.3 27-Mar-17 21860.41 25-May-17 23496.87 27-Mar-17 9808.2 25-May-17 10588.1 28-Mar-17 22029.58 26-May-17 23810.72 28-Mar-17 9887.8 26-May-17 10711.55 Mean 21924.75575 Mean 22638.57 Mean 9851.61625 Mean 10172.05 Median 21890.11 Median 22647.30 Median 9829.175 Median 10162.43 Std.Dev. 299.9364966 Std.Dev. 567.75 Std.Dev. 147.0574144 Std.Dev. 253.69
  • 5. ZENITH International Journal of Multidisciplinary Research _________ISSN 2231-5780 Vol.8 (11), November (2018), pp. 35-44 Online available at zenithresearch.org.in 39 There is a sharp increase in themean value of the stock price post GST in NSE and BSE. It is also noticed that standard deviation was comparatively greater during post GST both in NSE and BSE. Paired Sample T-Test - Demonetization Paired Sample T-test is carried out to test whether there is asignificant difference in themean value of the stock price in NSE and BSE during pre and post demonetization at 95% confidence interval. Table-3: Paired Sample T-Test - Demonetization Paired Samples Statistics Mean N Std. Deviation Std. Error Mean Pair 1 NSE-Pre-Demonetization 11070.8413 40 198.41608 31.37234 NSE-Post-Demonetization 9090.5075 40 279.68239 44.22167 Pair 2 BSE-Pre-Demonetization 22377.7198 40 314.93296 49.79527 BSE-Post-Demonetization 20104.3933 40 610.40003 96.51272 Paired Samples Correlations N Correlation Sig. Pair 1 NSE-Pre-Demonetization & NSE-Post-Demonetization 40 .005 .976 Pair 2 BSE-Pre-Demonetization & BSE-Post-Demonetization 40 .240 .137 Paired Samples Test Paired Differences t df Sig. (2- tailed) Mean Std. Deviation Std. Error Mean 95% Confidence Interval of the Difference Lower Upper Pair 1 NSE-Pre- Demonetization - NSE-Post- Demonetization 1980.33375 342.10765 54.09197 1870.92242 2089.74508 36.610 39 .000 Pair 2 BSE-Pre- Demonetization - BSE-Post- Demonetization 2273.32650 616.18880 97.42800 2076.25976 2470.39324 23.333 39 .000 The significance value obtained is .000 for both pair of samples i.e. NSE & BSE stock price during Pre and Post demonetization. Since the value is less than .05, the null hypothesis is
  • 6. ZENITH International Journal of Multidisciplinary Research _________ISSN 2231-5780 Vol.8 (11), November (2018), pp. 35-44 Online available at zenithresearch.org.in 40 rejected, which means there is asignificant difference in themean value of stock price pre and post demonetization in NSE and BSE. Paired Sample T-Test - GST Paired Sample T-test is carried out to test whether there is asignificant difference in themean value of the stock price in NSE and BSE during pre and post GST considering 95% confidence interval. Table-4: Paired Sample T-Test - GST Paired Samples Statistics Mean N Std. Deviation Std. Error Mean Pair 1 NSE-Pre-GST 9851.6163 40 147.05741 23.25182 NSE-Post-GST 10172.0525 40 253.68562 40.11122 Pair 2 BSE-Pre-GST 21924.7558 40 299.93650 47.42412 BSE-Post-GST 22638.5690 40 567.75332 89.76968 Paired Samples Correlations N Correlation Sig. Pair 1 NSE-Pre-GST & NSE-Post-GST 40 .117 .472 Pair 2 BSE-Pre-GST & BSE-Post-GST 40 .162 .318 Paired Samples Test Paired Differences t df Sig. (2- tailed)Mean Std. Deviation Std. Error Mean 95% Confidence Interval of the Difference Lower Upper Pair 1 NSE-Pre- GST - NSE-Post- GST -320.4362 277.92817 43.94430 -409.3219 -231.55051 -7.29 39 .000 Pair 2 BSE-Pre- GST - BSE-Post- GST -713.8132 597.59388 94.48789 -904.9330 -522.69346 -7.55 39 .000 The significance value obtained is .000 for both pair of samples i.e. NSE & BSE stock price during Pre and Post GST. Since the value is less than .05, the null hypothesis is rejected,
  • 7. ZENITH International Journal of Multidisciplinary Research _________ISSN 2231-5780 Vol.8 (11), November (2018), pp. 35-44 Online available at zenithresearch.org.in 41 which means there is asignificant difference in themean value of stock price pre and post GST in NSE and BSE. Automobile Sector Lifecycle Sector life indicates whether the particular industrial sector is in growth stage or declining stage. When the calculated value is less than 0.5 than the industrial sector is said to be in declining phase else it is in thegrowth stage. Sector or Company or product lifecycle formula: SLC = ∆ Where;  ∆ –[Current stock price –Base stock price]  –Standard Deviation Table-5: SLC –Demonetization & GST Sector Life Cycle - Demonetization S. No. NSE / BSE Period SLC Value Life Cycle 1 BSE Pre- Demonetization -4.12322676 Declining 2 Post-Demonetization -2.69084193 Declining 3 NSE Pre- Demonetization 2.479637684 Growth 4 Post- Demonetization -2.78673252 Declining Sector Life Cycle - GST S. No. NSE / BSE Period SLC Value Life Cycle 1 BSE Pre- GST 0.077049643 Declining 2 Post- GST 3.33 Growth 3 NSE Pre- GST -0.27778266 Declining 4 Post- GST 3.41 Growth The calculated SLC value considering demonetization period indicated that there was further declining SLC value Post demonetization in NSE and BSE. On controversy, the SLC value during GST indicated anincrease in NSE and BSE. Hence it can be concluded that
  • 8. ZENITH International Journal of Multidisciplinary Research _________ISSN 2231-5780 Vol.8 (11), November (2018), pp. 35-44 Online available at zenithresearch.org.in 42 demonetization had anegative impact on automobile sector while GST had apositive impact on automobile sector. Rate of Change The rate of Change calculation is carried out estimate the variation of the stock price in percentage. ROC = × 100 Table 6: Rate of Change [ROC] S. No. NSE / BSE Period ROC 1 BSE Demonetization -10.1588836 2 NSE Demonetization -17.8878344 3 BSE GST 3.26 4 NSE GST 3.25 The Rate of Change value thus estimated further confirms SLC i.e. demonetization had anegative impact and GST had apositive impact on automobile stock price in NSE and BSE. Conclusion From the analysis made on data obtained from official NSE and BSE websites, it calculated that the mean value stock price before demonetization was 22377.71975 had dropped to 20104.39325 after demonetization for BSE. Similarly, for NSE the mean value of stock price before demonetization was 11070.84125 got dropped to 9090.5075. Also, the Standard Deviation of stock price after demonetization was estimated (610.4000309 – BSE; 279.6823859 - NSE) to be high than thepre-demonetization period(314.9329579 – BSE; 198.4160844 - NSE). Drop in mean value when put into paired sample it was confirmed that there is asignificant difference in the stock price value pre and post demonetization period. The determined value through SLC (-2.69084193 –BSE; -2.78673252 –NSE)and ROC (- 10.1588836 –BSE; -17.8878344 –NSE) projected the automobile industry stock price has declined by 10.16% in BSE and 17.89% in NSE. From the analysis made on data obtained mean value stock price before GST was 21924.75575had raised to 22638.57after GST for BSE. Similarly, for NSE the mean value of stock price before GST was 9851.61625got raised to 10172.05. Also, the Standard Deviation of stock price after GST was estimated (567.75– BSE; 253.69- NSE) to be high than thepre-GST period(299.9364966–BSE; 147.0574144- NSE). Increase in mean value when put into paired sample it was confirmed that there is asignificant difference in the stock price value pre and post GST period. The determined value through SLC (3.33 –BSE; 3.41 –NSE)and ROC (3.26 –BSE; 3.25 –NSE) projected
  • 9. ZENITH International Journal of Multidisciplinary Research _________ISSN 2231-5780 Vol.8 (11), November (2018), pp. 35-44 Online available at zenithresearch.org.in 43 the automobile industry stock price has inclined by 3.26% in BSE and 3.25% in NSE. Hence it can be concluded that demonetization had anegative impact on stock price of the Automobile sector while GST had apositive impact. Appendix i. References bankbazaar. (2017). Retrieved from www.bankbazaar.com: https://www.bankbazaar.com/tax.html BSE. (2017, Dec). Retrieved from www.bseindia.com: http://www.bseindia.com/indices/IndexArchiveData.aspx Chauhan, S., & Kaushik, N. (2017). Impact Of Demonetization On Stock Market:Event Study Methodology. Indian Journal of Accounting, Vol. XLIX (1); pp: 127-132. Dr.P.Chellasamy, & Anu.K.M. (2017). Impact of Demonetisation on Indian Stock Market: With Special Reference to Sectoral Indices in National Stock Exchange of India. IOSR - Journal of Economics and Finance, Vol- 8; Issu-e I; PP: 51-54. InvestarIndia. (2017, Nov 30). Retrieved from www.investarindia.com: http://www.investarindia.com/blog/effect-demonetization-indian-stock-market/ NSE. (2017, Dec). Retrieved from www.nseindia.com: https://www.nseindia.com/products/content/equities/indices/historical_index_data.ht m Oberoi, R. (2017, Jun 28). Retrieved from https://economictimes.indiatimes.com: https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/stocks/news/how-painful-will-be-gst- for-stock-market-not-as-much-as-vat-was/articleshow/59348446.cms Shah, A. (2017, Jul 03). Retrieved from www.livemint.com: http://www.livemint.com/Money/HO4OVPL2r4k7ahcCtE6xpJ/Market-Live-Sensex- Nifty-jump-in-opening-trade-ITC-shares.html Thowseaf, S., & Millath, M. A. (2017). Delineationon Demonetization Impact on Indian Economy. International Journal of Innovative Knowledge Concepts, Vol. 5; Issue 7; PP: 37-40.
  • 10. ZENITH International Journal of Multidisciplinary Research _________ISSN 2231-5780 Vol.8 (11), November (2018), pp. 35-44 Online available at zenithresearch.org.in 44 Zerodha, N. K. (2017, Jul 01). Retrieved from www.moneycontrol.com: http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/markets/how-will-gst-impact-retail- investors-and-investment-in-stocks-or-mfs-2316255.html ii. Secondary Data GST BSE-SENSEX-AUTO NSE-NIFTY-AUTO Pre-GST Post-GST Pre-GST Post-GST Date Closing Price Date Closing Price Date Closing Price Date Closing Price 30-Jan-17 22006.47 29-Mar-17 21921.77 30-Jan-17 9928.65 29-Mar-17 9845.75 31-Jan-17 21809.24 30-Mar-17 21963.98 31-Jan-17 9837.75 30-Mar-17 9860.3 01-Feb-17 22563.21 31-Mar-17 22012.66 01-Feb-17 10191.95 31-Mar-17 9880.2 02-Feb-17 22322.07 03-Apr-17 22099.84 02-Feb-17 10058.8 03-Apr-17 9921.1 03-Feb-17 22147.15 05-Apr-17 22341.61 03-Feb-17 9975.1 05-Apr-17 10033.55 06-Feb-17 22288.07 06-Apr-17 22322.62 06-Feb-17 10031.1 06-Apr-17 10035.3 07-Feb-17 22080.1 07-Apr-17 22235.34 07-Feb-17 9931.7 07-Apr-17 9993.75 08-Feb-17 22230.98 10-Apr-17 22307.27 08-Feb-17 9994.25 10-Apr-17 10030.5 09-Feb-17 22299.1 11-Apr-17 22326.02 09-Feb-17 10028.05 11-Apr-17 10040.05 10-Feb-17 22194.95 12-Apr-17 22224.97 10-Feb-17 9987.3 12-Apr-17 9987.15 13-Feb-17 22162.31 13-Apr-17 22053.66 13-Feb-17 9973.3 13-Apr-17 9907.4 14-Feb-17 21919.81 17-Apr-17 21991.36 14-Feb-17 9820.6 17-Apr-17 9889.45 15-Feb-17 21254.69 18-Apr-17 21826.91 15-Feb-17 9523.35 18-Apr-17 9813.7 16-Feb-17 21596.03 19-Apr-17 21858.26 16-Feb-17 9686.35 19-Apr-17 9831.35 17-Feb-17 21582.11 20-Apr-17 22010.97 17-Feb-17 9683.6 20-Apr-17 9909.9 20-Feb-17 21722.12 21-Apr-17 21919.72 20-Feb-17 9743.95 21-Apr-17 9858.8 21-Feb-17 21779.75 24-Apr-17 22180.32 21-Feb-17 9758.9 24-Apr-17 9978.2 22-Feb-17 21767.85 25-Apr-17 22435.44 22-Feb-17 9768.45 25-Apr-17 10090.35 23-Feb-17 21753.86 26-Apr-17 22662.35 23-Feb-17 9761.75 26-Apr-17 10189.7 27-Feb-17 21538.46 27-Apr-17 22634.44 27-Feb-17 9666.85 27-Apr-17 10173.1 28-Feb-17 21486.06 28-Apr-17 22782.4 28-Feb-17 9654.65 28-Apr-17 10255.15 01-Mar-17 21546.27 02-May-17 22903.84 01-Mar-17 9670.6 02-May-17 10294.75 02-Mar-17 21607.62 03-May-17 22896.38 02-Mar-17 9705.5 03-May-17 10273 03-Mar-17 21557.77 04-May-17 22769.49 03-Mar-17 9680.5 04-May-17 10211.8 06-Mar-17 21824.29 05-May-17 22510.64 06-Mar-17 9800 05-May-17 10107.95 07-Mar-17 21714.56 08-May-17 22666.23 07-Mar-17 9753.55 08-May-17 10167.05 08-Mar-17 21610.67 09-May-17 22660.15 08-Mar-17 9701.25 09-May-17 10157.8 09-Mar-17 21732.38 10-May-17 22993.54 09-Mar-17 9754.35 10-May-17 10303.9 10-Mar-17 21790.97 11-May-17 23218.58 10-Mar-17 9779.25 11-May-17 10410.75 14-Mar-17 22064.65 12-May-17 23245.43 14-Mar-17 9910.4 12-May-17 10429.2 15-Mar-17 22221.03 15-May-17 23367.07 15-Mar-17 9987.65 15-May-17 10481.3 16-Mar-17 22360.15 16-May-17 23616.15 16-Mar-17 10056.5 16-May-17 10597.45 17-Mar-17 22258.02 17-May-17 23751.55 17-Mar-17 10009.4 17-May-17 10669.7 20-Mar-17 22276.01 18-May-17 23280.14 20-Mar-17 10009.3 18-May-17 10436.35 21-Mar-17 22180.82 19-May-17 23141.63 21-Mar-17 9963.75 19-May-17 10409.8 22-Mar-17 21830.13 22-May-17 22963.99 22-Mar-17 9803.95 22-May-17 10339.95 23-Mar-17 22014.57 23-May-17 23061.74 23-Mar-17 9897.95 23-May-17 10380.65 24-Mar-17 22005.94 24-May-17 23076.71 24-Mar-17 9878.35 24-May-17 10386.3 27-Mar-17 21860.41 25-May-17 23496.87 27-Mar-17 9808.2 25-May-17 10588.1 28-Mar-17 22029.58 26-May-17 23810.72 28-Mar-17 9887.8 26-May-17 10711.55 Source: (NSE, 2017)&(BSE, 2017)