Jennifer Morgan, Director of the Climate and Energy Program at the World Resources Institute, presented on the state of global climate policy at the launch of The Climate Institute's Global Climate Leadership Review 2012.
WRI has experienced unprecedented growth during a time of global economic turbulence. We have nearly doubled our budget in the past four years. While gratified by the recognition of our role and results by donors, we have also taken steps to strengthen the organization to ensure a robust future. We believe that WRI’s steadfast focus on our objectives over many years – while pursuing creative and realistic strategies to advance them – have established a reputation for high quality work and ability to deliver outcomes. Our independence opens avenues for WRI to pursue innovative solutions, while our dedication to excellence has built a reputation for trust. This fiscal year – 2011 – WRI continues to raise funds from an array of sources: foundation, business, government and individuals. We pursue new sources of funds while continuing relationships of many years with donors who have sustained our work with large, multi-year commitments. Despite financial stresses among all sectors of our sources of funding, WRI has retained the confidence of a community of supporters. To strengthen our expertise and managerial capabilities, WRI has conducted worldwide searches and hired outstanding individuals who bring a wealth of pertinent skills, knowledge and experiences to our team. We are focusing on ensuring that our values remain constant as we evolve and that our culture of collaboration and leadership remains intact. We have instituted a culture of communications at WRI. The term ‘everyone is a communicator’ is a hallmark of this effort, which has equipped everyone with the tools, training and immersion in strategies to influence our communities of decision-makers. In a multi-media world, we are utilizing all appropriate channels, technologies and creative solutions to advance sustainability and effect change. Our fledgling China office is maturing into a fully-functioning and highly effective agent for change in that country. And WRI is establishing platforms in India and Brazil to expand our work with partners, learn from them and provide value to those societies. As WRI approaches its 30th year, we do so with an optimism and confidence that we will ensure a sustainable planet for current and future generations.
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Renewables targets were increased to the levels in this chart after the initial release of the 12th Five Year Plan “Stock Volume” refers to the above-stump volume of living trees measured from the bark up to the treetops. China has just adopted new air quality standards on SOx, NOx, PM2.5, and Mercury (new ChinaFAQs fact sheet forthcoming) Sources for renewables targets: http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/12/15/us-china-renewables-idUSTRE7BE0H320111215 (solar)http://www.theclimategroup.org/our-news/news/2011/9/1/china-amps-up-clean-energy-targets/Source for Total Primary Energy Consumption 2010: BP Statistical Review of World Energy, 2011(http://www.bp.com/sectionbodycopy.do?categoryId=7500&contentId=7068481)
On Carbon Trading, each regional pilot will likely explore different approaches in order to learn best practices. Source identifying which regions are participating was a ChinaDaily article citing an anonymous NDRC official (http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/bizchina/2011-11/23/content_14145909.htm) Source: People’s Daily (http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/90001/90778/90862/7110049.html)Also see Wang Ke on WRI Insights: NDRC launched the National Pilot Program on Low-Carbon Provinces and Cities. The program directs five provinces- Guangdong, Liaoning, Hubei, Shaanxi and Yunnan , and 8 cities- Tianjin, Chongqing, Shenzhen, Xiamen, Hangzhou, Nanchang, Guiyang and Baoding, to formulate supporting policies in their respective provincial/municipal five-year plans with regard to low carbon development. (http://insights.wri.org/open-climate-network/2011/09/role-cities-meeting-chinas-carbon-intensity-goal) China’s National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) recently released a “barometer” to show regional progress toward energy conservation goals in the first half of 2011. (It is unclear whether this barometer will be updated going forward)
Global Perspective Jennifer Morgan, Director WRI Climate and Energy Program
WRI’s MissionTo move human society to live inways that protect Earthsenvironment and its capacity toprovide for the needs and aspirationsof current and future generations.
U.S. GHG Emissions Target for 2020Source: Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the United States Using Existing Federal Authorities and StateAction, World Resources Institute, 2010
U.S. Climate Policy - 2011Pres. Obama calls for National vehicle rules establishedclean energy standards EPA Mercury & CA Air Resources Board adopts Air Toxics Rules final cap-and-trade regulationJan. Mar. Jul. Oct. Nov. Dec . EPA ozone rules delayed Keystone decision delayedOffshore drilling expanded
Residential Solar Power by 2015 (U.S.)NREL, Break-Even Cost for Residential Photovoltaics in the United States, 2009, Figure 8.
And competitively priced renewables are not just taking off in the U.S… China: Wind energy competitive in two years Italy, Spain, Greece & Portugal: and solar PV by 2015. Solar PV competitive within two years. India: Solar PV Germany: Wind competitive with on-FL, NC, NJ, Southwest: electricity spot grid diesel generation.Solar PV close tocompetitive with fossil prices cheaper thanfuels. fossil fuels some days in 2011. Brazil: In 2011, Wind energy Island Nations, Japan & Hawaii: auctions undercut price of Solar PV competitive within two natural gas. years.
China’s 12th Five Year Plan: New Environmental TargetsRenewables (GW total installed capacity) 2016 Total Primary Energy Consumption 2010Hydro 260 100%Wind 100 90%Solar 15Bio-energy 13 80%Air and Water Quality Reduction by 2016 70%SO2 8% RE 60%Chemical Oxygen Demand 8% HydroNOx 10% Nuclear 50% GasAmmonia Nitrogen 10% 40% OilClimate Goals by 2016 CoalCarbon Intensity 17% reduction 30%Energy Intensity 16% reduction 20% 1.25 mil. hectare increaseDomestic Forest Cover 600 mil. m3 stock volume increase 10%Non-fossil share of primary energy 11.4% 0%Sources: Deborah Seligsohn on ChinaFAQs; The Climate Group; Reuters
China’s 12th Five Year Plan: Sub-national InitiativesCarbon Trading Pilots • Carbon Trading Pilots inLow-Carbon Provinces & Cities 7 Provinces & Cities: Beijing Shanghai Tianjin Guangdong Chongqing Hubei Shenzhen • Low-carbon plans for designated provinces and cities • Allocated Energy Intensity Reduction Targets for all provinces and municipalities • Official “Barometer” for progress on regional energy goals
Looking Ahead: National Energy or Coal Cap • China is considering setting a national cap on energy or coal consumption • Ultimate aim is to limit the use of coal. • In addition to considering a cap, there is already a volume-based resource tax on coal • Consequences for coal consumption and CO2 emissions will depend on how stringent the cap isSource: Angel Hsu on ChinaFAQsPhoto: Petteri Sulonen
Jobs in the renewable energy sources sector in Germany 96,100 102,100Wind energy 85,700 63,900 122,000 128,000 Biomass 119,500 56,800 120,900 80,600Solar energy 49,200 25,100 7,600 7,800 Hydropower Increase: approx. 129 % 8,100 9,500 13,300 Geothermal 14,500 energy 10,300 1,800 160,500 277,300 339,500 367,400 7,500Publicly funded jobs jobs jobs jobs 6,500 research / 4,500 administration 3,400 2004 2007 2009 2010 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 Figures for 2009 and 2010 are provisional estimate; deviations in totals are due to rounding;Source: O’Sullivan/Edler/van Mark/Nieder/Lehr: "Bruttobeschäftigung durch erneuerbare Energien im Jahr 20010 – eine erste Abschätzung", as at: March 2011; interim report of research project „Kurz- und langfristige Auswirkungen des Ausbaus erneuerbarer Energien auf den deutschen Arbeitsmarkt“; image: BMU / Christoph Busse / transitBMU- KI III 1Renewable Energy in Germany, 2010